Lady Blitz: September 2016

September 29, 2016

NFL Week 4 Picks

Oy. I do not seem to understand this NFL world of 2016. The most experienced and renowned 3 - 0 quarterback is Joe Flacco, and so far he's played much worse than your Sam Bradfords, Jacoby Brissetts and Trevor Siemians. What a world. It's almost as though I started working on my picks around 8pm last Wednesday and now face my worst start since I started this blog. Good thing I'm learning from my mistakes... ahem... okay, I'm just going to wear this thing and go for it - on to Week 4!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) - Welp y'all, this is a good weekend to get out and do some yardwork because the top shelf is sparse. Having the Packers and Eagles on a bye week hurts the cause, but at least we've got two viable AFC contenders in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Ben Roethlisberger was downright declawed by that surprising Philly defense last week, and if there's cause for concern going into Sunday, it's that the opposing Chiefs already have a league-leading 10 takeaways this season. But with the Steelers getting Le'Veon Bell back at Heinz Field, my highly questionable gut instinct says this is Pittsburgh's game to lose.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) - How 'bout them Vikings? Given the schedule and the headline injury woes, this might just be the most surprising 3 - 0 team right now, but they've earned it with an insanely good defense and some special teams assists. Nevertheless, this is a tough pick since Minnesota has the thinnest of margins to succeed on offense, and the Giants have shown marked improvement with a solid defense of their own. When all is said and done, I see Odell Beckham taking it out on the benches, Gatorade coolers and traffic cones in the parking lot when he gets shut down by Xavier Rhodes. And probably some ill-timed, Manning-face'd turnovers in prime time. Skol!

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-5.5) - I'm pretty sure Bobby Boucher is starting at quarterback for the Patriots this week, though this would be the time for a sweet Julian Edelman flea flicker to some white running back you've never heard of for the game-sealing touchdown. Anyway, sweet baby Kanye the Patriots may never lose again. Although the Bills finally showed some signs of life last week, I just can't see them having a prayer in Foxborough this weekend.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets - If you're looking at the definition of insanity, it's right here with me picking the Jets for the fourth week in a row, against the freakin' Seahawks. Am I scared of Ryan "six picks" Fitzpatrick squaring off against the Legion of Boom? Absolutely. But if Seattle starts out slow with this early East coast game, and if New York's defensive line can keep Christine Michael at bay while Russell Wilson is hobbling around on a tweaked knee, they may not need to put up a ton of points to win this one. It's worth a gamble if you aren't gambling.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons - You might be wondering what in the world happened to those Panthers who already have as many losses in their first three weeks as they had in all 19 games last year. I'll attribute a good bit of this slow start to the schedule that has already included the two toughest defenses in the league. Good thing for the Panthers is that the Falcons do not have said tough defense. I say Carolina gets back on track with a good offensive showing in the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - Mercy, I've gone back and forth a few times on this AFC undercard. If there's been an early-season concern about the Raiders, it's their porous defense. But they seemed to turn things around against the Titans after facing two of the very best offenses in the league their first two weeks. Still, that was the Titans without Delanie Walker. The Ravens are sitting pretty at 3 - 0 and have homefield advantage this week, but their wins are against a slew of conference lowlifes in the way of the Bills, Browns and Jaguars. Just how for real is that undefeated record? I guess I'm going Raiders here. I think their defense can handle Joe Flacco, who looks like he's still at less than full strength, and their offense should give them a puncher's chance in the fourth quarter.

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5) - If I can be a homer for a minute and curse my team with the faintest praise, the Saints are still the most entertaining of all of those other 0 - 3 teams. There's abysmal defense and untimely special teams mistakes for sure, but this offense is eventually going to steal some wins. It could even happen this week in San Diego, where Drew Brees always likes to remind his old team of what they've been missing for the last decade. But there's that whole abysmal defense thing. This week, I go back into my mental cave of zen where the Saints will certainly lose and I will feel nothing, including the absence of disappointment.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) - If you're remotely tempted to pick the Dolphins this week, just remember they were one botched field goal away from losing to the Browns at home and being 0 - 3 right now. Cincy hasn't been great so far, but they can get back to 0.500 and enjoy a long weekend with a satisfying home win here. They've got a lot more talent to turn it around than Miami, anyway.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Just when you couldn't get enough with that thrilling Thursday Night Football schedule, the NFL will continue its tradition of exporting its shoddiest games to London for your early-morning viewing pleasure! Jet lag and mediocre rosters mean all bets are off in this one, but it looks like the Jaguars are still who we thought they were. And so I'm taking Andrew Luck's bait once again.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskinks (-8) - The Redskinks aren't totally out of the woods with the Browns. They'll be thinner in the secondary without De'Angelo Hall and Bashaud Breeland, and... oh hell, it's the Browns. I'm still not picking 'em.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears - This feels like the kind of game the Lions will blow against a reeling Bears squad that can't get out of its own way. I plan to hate this pick by Monday morning.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5) - If there's a small ray of hope for the Titans, Marcus Mariota will probably get his security blanket Delanie Walker back, and J.J. Watt landed on IR, making the Texans' defense slightly less terrifying. But for my money, I'm officially declaring the Titans' post-Jeff Fisher revolution is on hold for another year.

Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Remember all that stuff I said a couple weeks back about turnovers being Jameis Winston's kryptonite? Well, given how that game in Arizona went for the Bucs, I'm guessing things won't get much better with this bigger defensive bully from Denver.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers - The Cowboys sure have been more fun to watch than I thought they'd be in this Romo-less stretch. And they'd have a good chance to stay near the top of the NFC East with a win against the beatable 49ers here. But I think the Niners aren't quite as bad as projected in the preseason, and Chip Kelly knows this Dallas team well enough to put an effective game plan in place at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8) - How will Carson Palmer blow this so as to contribute to the global conspiracy to ruin my weekly picks, thereby driving down Lady Blitz readership permanently? I don't know, but it'll probably happen. I'll just slide my neck across the chopping block for 'ya.

Lovely Lady Locks

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 4, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

Texans -5 over Titans
Broncos -3 over Buccaneers
Rams +8 over Cardinals

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 24 - 24
Against the Spread: 3 - 6

September 22, 2016

NFL Week 3 Picks

Welp, I have dug myself quite a hole to get out of after Week 2 - my picks were almost as ugly as whatever the Bears have become. But there's a new dawn upon us with Week 3 and a full slate of mostly mediocre to somewhat intriguing games to look forward to!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - We get to see a rare cross-state rumble between two yet-to-be defeated teams for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! That Carson Wentz sure is turning heads with that gritty North Dakotan arm in his first two NFL starts - in fact, he's the first rookie quarterback in 46 (!) years to win his first two games with no interceptions. I'm rooting for the kid, if only to continue to embarrass the Rams and Browns for passing up on him. BUT let this be your PSA that the Eagles have only played perhaps the two very worst teams in the league so far, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves just yet. I think Wentz is plenty-good, but I'm not sure the Eagles (or most other teams) have the chops to outdo the high-flying Steelers at the moment.

Houston Texans (-1) at New England Patriots - Welp, the Jimmy Garoppolo era was a blast. We probably won't see him again until he's getting buried in the turf under center in Cleveland next year. Instead, we get to see third-stringer and 91st pick of 2016 Jacoby Brissett live out a Disney sports movie plotline and get his first NFL start against the ferocious Houston defense while Tom Brady looms in the rafters. If there's any team that will figure this thing out and win anyway, it'll be the Patriots. But the Texans have looked like the real deal all eight quarters so far this season, and that defense will get better and better as J.J. Watt gets back to form. If they can keep LeGarrette Blount near the line of scrimmage and force Brissett to make quick decisions with almost zero practice reps, I think they can pull off a rare road win in Foxborough.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - This has the makings of an old-school defensive showcase between two eventual playoff contenders. And what a tough game to nail down at that. The Bengals haven't been great at stopping the run so far, which is the foundation of the Broncos' offense, but I think they can keep that "poised" Trevor Siemian on edge and force a couple crucial turnovers. And though the Broncos defense is assuredly going to notch some sacks and have a good game plan for A.J. Green, they won't have DeMarcus Ware this week, which I think will give Andy Dalton just enough time in the pocket to keep his offense on track.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7) - A mighty defense will meet one of the hardest offenses to topple when they're at home. This could be a sneaky-good game if the Vikings are able to disrupt the pocket and keep Cam Newton's scrambling ways in check in the same way they did with Aaron Rodgers in prime time last week. And if Cris Collinsworth is to be believed, Sam Bradford is the second coming under center in Minnesota, so who needs Adrian Peterson anyway? I can talk myself into scenarios where both of these teams could win, which usually ends poorly for me. So let's jinx the Panthers out of a conference win so that the dumb Saints still have a chance this season.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) - Somehow, this game is no longer that bad of a prospect to watch. The Raiders' defense appears to be bad enough to give the Titans' offense a chance, and the Titans will probably do some dumb things to keep the Raiders in it through four quarters. When all is said and done, I have to think Jack Del Rio is going to start making some defensive adjustments that will work for this Oakland team with a lot of talent. And if there's an offensive line that can give you a boost of confidence, Tennessee's is a good place to start.

Washington Redskinks at New York Giants (-4.5) - You watch. Just when we think we've figured out that the Redskinks have totally collapsed and the Giants have totally turned the corner, they are almost guaranteed to confuse the hell out of all of us and do the opposite. I am so close to picking Washington for that existential truth alone, but Kirk Cousins has just looked too shaky for me to take a chance. I say Big Blue starts separating itself in earnest from the rest of the division at 3 - 0 with another week of strong defensive play and a reliable passing game.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - I gotta say, one of the story lines that continues to perplex me is how uneven the Packers' offense has looked. I thought for sure their woes last year had almost everything to do with Jordy Nelson being out of pocket and Aaron Rodgers playing hurt, but present performance would suggest otherwise. Making matters worse, the Lions won't be coming into this game as scared and hopeless as they used to after finally winning in Lambeau last year and coming within a Hail Mary of sweeping the Packers altogether. I think it'll be a close one, but it's hard to bet against the Packers at home following a loss.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - Picking against the Chiefs at home is risky business, but they just haven't looked that solid so far outside of one crazy comeback in the second half in Week 1. And the Jets might just be their kryptonite given how good Gang Green is against the run. If they can hold West and Ware in check and force Alex Smith to put up 35+ pass attempts, they should have KC firmly in their control. But they'll probably blow it.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - I can't fault Indy for having a sub-par game at Mile High against a defense that looks just as good as it did in February, but this definitely still looks like a team that hasn't figured out how to hang consistently with the better teams in the conference. And given that the Colts have allowed 36 points per game while the Chargers are putting up 32, San Diego will be an even taller task for another week with Indy's short-handed secondary.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - The Cowboys might just be able to hold down the fort until Tony Romo returns after all. They aren't lighting the world on fire on either side of the ball, but they've kept their games in reach so far with good execution on most corners of the roster. Flip that statement around to the exact opposite, and you have this year's Chicago Bears - and that was before Lamarr Houston and Danny Travathan got injured.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Sunday marks ten years since Steve Gleason blocked that punt against the Falcons in the Saints' iconic return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. So get ready for lots of soft-focus montages on Monday Night Football when these hated rivals get together for their first meeting this season. I've gotten to a place of Sunday zen so far this season by assuming (rightly) that New Orleans is going to lose a lot of games. But this one's just too weighty against too loathed of an opponent to leave to stoics and practicalities. Who Dat!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Buffalo Bills - Forget the lake effect - all of those seats are pretty darn hot in Buffalo. And I don't think Greg Roman was the problem when the Ryan brothers have been calling the shots on a defense that has gotten progressively worse these past two years. The Cardinals are just too good to beat when one's team is remotely discombobulated, and the Bills look like that and much worse right now.

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Le sigh. I think I jumped on the Jaguars hype train a little too quickly. If they can drag this one into a shootout, they've still got a decent chance to win against a Ravens team that has struggled against AFC lowlifes like the Bills and Browns so far this season. But the Jaguars tend to be the Jaguars, so there's my analysis.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-9.5) - After the Dolphins' death march to Seattle and Foxborough, this should be a nice soft landing with puppies and unicorns bounding through the meadows for a home opener.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) - After going on an absolute tear in the latter half of 2015, the Seahawks' offense has been nonexistent. One touchdown in two weeks and 7.5 points per game to be precise. So this game could be downright ugly and low-scoring since the 'Hawks defense will most certainly hold up its end of the bargain, but it feels fluky to me. I think Seattle turns it around against a Niners team that hasn't been a serious threat since 2013.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) - It's hard to say where these two roller coaster teams will meet this week after alternatingly impressive wins and awful losses. I wouldn't totally count the Rams out if they can put the heat on Jameis Winston in the pocket like they did with Russell Wilson last week, but a lot more things have to go right for the Rams to put points on the board. So Bucs, I reckon.

Lovely Lady Locks

Steelers -3.5 over Eagles
Lions +7.5 over Packers
Cardinals -4 over Bills

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 18 - 14
Against the Spread: 2 - 4

September 15, 2016

NFL Week 2 Picks

It'll be hard for Week 2 in the NFL to top opening weekend where 11 of 16 games came down to one score and four of those came down to one point. Nevertheless, here's my weekly crapshoot at the game of inches:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - You might remember a little something about the Bengals-Steelers rivalry from that crazy wild card game in January. Blood will boil and teeth will gnash when these two divisional teams reunite for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. You can't doubt the level of motivation Cincy will bring to this one after blowing that last playoff game in extraordinary fashion, but I'm not sure that will be enough to slow down Antonio Brown or the resurgent De'Angelo Williams this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2.5) - Speaking of wild card rematches, I'm guessing Texans fans will want this one to go a little differently than that spectacularly bad shutout the Chiefs laid on them to end the previous season. The good thing is that Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller are fitting right in with Houston's rejuvenated offense. And they're getting a Chiefs team that might be downright exhausted after mounting a huge 24-point second-half comeback last week. But I can't shake that KC has had this team's number the last three times they've played, so I'm going to take a chance on the slight underdogs.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-5) - The likelihood of the Saints and Giants repeating that 13-TD, 101-point track meet from a year ago are pretty dang low. But these two offenses still have all the weapons to give us another Sunday afternoon thriller, and I'm down for the ride. As much as I wish New Orleans wouldn't be doomed to another agonizing winless start to the season, I just don't see how this hobbled and struggling defense is going to slow down Odell Beckham and friends in the least. With Delvin Breaux out indefinitely, they'll be starting three rookies in the secondary. How's that for baptism by fire?

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskinks (-3) - It's hard to suss out what to expect in this NFC East battle given the adjustments I expect these teams to make. You'd think the Cowboys might take a few more shots downfield this time given that Dez Bryant had just one catch in Week 1. But you'd also think the Redskinks might put their $50 million cornerback on said Bryant on every down after getting smacked around by Antonio Brown on Monday night. When it's all said and done though, I think Washington is on more stable ground at this point than a Cowboys team still figuring a lot of things out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) - Jameis Winston had no problem carving up the Falcons' defense last week, but facing off with a front seven like the Cardinals' is another story altogether. I think this year's Bucs still have a chance based on how Winston has improved over the past several games of his pro career. You might also argue that the Patriots showed the rest of the league a solid blueprint for how to keep Arizona's big-play offense in check. But Arizona can generate turnovers with the best of 'em, and that has long been Winston's kryptonite. Let's hope it comes to pass this week too.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6) - Poor Andrew Luck. You pull off another stunning go-ahead touchdown drive in the final two minutes, but you just can't play those 11 defensive positions too to preserve the win. I suspect Luck will also despair this weekend that he can't play center, guard and tackle.

Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-5) - The "Not Again"-o-meter just ticked another few points for the Falcons in the Dan Quinn era, so don't be surprised to see them treat this West Coast trip like a desperation game. That could make Atlanta a little more unpredictable, but they've also got quite a few essential players on the questionable list including Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Devonta Freeman. That'll make it just that much harder to keep pace with a young Oakland offense with a lot of big playmakers.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-3) - In this corner, we have two teams that seem destined to be better this season coming off of tough down-to-the-wire losses. I have no idea what to think on this one, so subconsciously, this is an aspirational pick that the Jaguars will steal the show in San Diego and not totally blow it for a change. Plus, Philip Rivers just isn't quite the same without Keenan Allen:(

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Minnesota Vikings - This divisional rivalry has certainly gotten more interesting since Mike Zimmer took on the headset for the Vikings. And the Packers shouldn't sleep on that defense that single-handedly outscored the Titans last week. But the Packers will still have Aaron Rodgers while the Vikings will be starting Sam Bradford. Yeesh.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-3) - Now we see if Carson Wentz can keep up the early-season buzz against a team that is not the Cleveland Browns! He definitely looked better than Jay Cutler and da Bears did in Week 1, but the level of competition has shifted for both teams and so shall the win-loss balance in the NFL universe. Or something.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New York Jets (-1) at Buffalo Bills - Welp, it's been a while since we've had a 6 - 3 score, but these two ferocious and disgruntled AFC East defenses might give us one of those Thursdays to forget. I reckon my money's on the Jets with a more reliable offense and the kind of defensive line Rex Ryan dreams of.

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-6) - Aw man, is this another one of those years where the Lions dominate an insanely easy regular seasons schedule only to lose in agonizing fashion in the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5) - Give the Dolphins credit - they nearly beat the Seahawks on one of the toughest fields in the NFL last week. So there's a chance they could do the same in Foxboro behind a decent defensive line and solid receiving corps. A very, very small chance.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns - I was about to say "poor Cleveland," but this city just won one of the most improbable NBA championships of all time. They can sit through another sad sack football season with Josh McCown and 52 other scrubs.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5) - If I had money to pay a fact-checker, I'd want to know whether another NFL team has ever been a 13-point underdog right after a 28 - 0 shutout victory. Yep, the Rams really are that bad. Even though the Panthers are coming off of a heart-breaking season opener, they should have zero problem giving the Carolina people what they love against Blaine Gabbert and friends.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams - Before you go putting hundreds of dollars on the Seahawks to beat the most hapless team by far on opening weekend, remember that the Rams are somehow 3 - 1 against Seattle over these past two seasons. I'm guessing the Seahawks will be walking into this one with eyes wide open this time.

Lovely Lady Locks

Giants -5 over Saints
Packers -2 over Vikings
49ers +13.5 over Panthers

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 10 - 6
Against the Spread: 2 - 1

September 13, 2016

NFL Week 1 Awards and a Reason for Every Team to Be Optimistic This Season

Good day, dear Lady Blitz readers! It's been an eventful Week 1 to say the least, so I've decided to bestow some awards (as I hope to do most weeks this season) that capture the good, the bad, the ugly, and the just plain weird stuff that happens when 22 men run into each other for 60 minutes every week. And also because it's just a fun thing to do, I'm giving out reasons for every team to be optimistic this year. Let's roll out the hardware!

The Sisyphus Award: Drew Brees and the Jets' Defensive Line (Tie)
Wouldn't you feel awesome if someone told you your quarterback would put up over 400 yards and four TDs with no picks on Sunday? Or that your defense would sack the opposing quarterback seven times? These are practically guarantees that your team will win, right? But as often seems to be the case for the Saints and Jets, no good deed goes unpunished. New Orleans' defense gave up just enough big plays to let the Raiders surmount an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter. New York was ultimately undone by one of Darrelle Revis' worst days of his career and a missed field goal and extra point that turned out to matter in this one-point loss. They can keep pushing that rock, but we already know that a cruel fate awaits them most weeks.

Your Friendly Reminder of the NFL's Priorities Award: The Penalty Flag Allotment
Just so we're clear, spearing Cam Newton in the helmet over and over is totally fine, but Antonio Brown must be punished for one of the better Hingle McCringleberry impressions we've seen since Lance Moore was still on the scene.

The What-Do-You-Think-of-Kaepernick Award: A Haiku
The First Amendment
(And Fourth and Fifth) are the things
Our founders fought for.

Reasons for Every Team to Be Optimistic This Year

The beauty of Week 1 is that every team and fan can delude themselves into high hopes for the season. At best, you had a solid win or surprising upset. At worst, you're a game away from 0.500 and have another 15 games to prove yourself worthy. So here's my rapid fire take on why every team can be optimistic at this point:

Broncos - Trevor Siemian can manage his way to a lot of wins behind that defense.

Bears - Alshon Jeffery sure is playing like he wants to get paid.

Bengals - A.J. Green can carry this offense on his back with ease.

Bills - Buffalo was one blown coverage on Mike Wallace from making this a game - with no offense whatsoever.

Browns - There's only 15 more games between you and another top draft pick.

Buccaneers - Your quarterback just turned the corner in a big, scary way.

Cardinals - There are no signs of a David Johnson sophomore slump.

Chargers - Melvin Gordon already has more touchdowns in 2016 than he had all of last season.

Chiefs - You can put up 24 points in a half with Alex Smith.

Colts -You will always have a chance to win when Andrew Luck is manning the fourth quarter 2-minute drill.

Cowboys - Dak Prescott may not win you a ton of games, but he's good enough not to lose them.

Dolphins - Good news: you get to play the Browns in two weeks; Bad news: you have to go to Foxboro first.

Eagles - You're looking a whole lot smarter than the Rams and Browns in trading up for Carson Wentz.

Falcons - Matt Ryan didn't turn the ball over this week - get that man a plaque!

49ers - For a moment anyway, you can pretend the 49ers are a really good team rather than that the Rams are just that bad.

Giants - You finally beat the Cowboys in Week 1... barely.

Jaguars - That down-to-the-wire loss looked better than a lot of teams' wins this week.

Jets - Your pass rush is looking pretty, pretty good.

Lions - No Megatron, no problem... at least against the Colts' secondary.

Packers - You avoided getting embarrassed by the Jaguars this week!

Panthers - You only have to beat the rest of the NFC South to get to January.

Patriots - Good Lord, this team could probably start Mark Sanchez and a bunch of Pop Warner receivers and still manage to win. #makeitstop

Rams - There is literally nowhere to go from here but up.

Raiders - A gutsy game-winning call goes a long way toward confidence, and confidence goes a long way toward winning more games.

Ravens - No one's worried that you did the wrong thing in letting Tyrod Taylor go anymore.

Redskinks - Perhaps if you let Josh Norman cover the other team's best receiver, your defense can get better.

Saints - Rumors of the demise of Drew Brees and the Saints' offensive line have been greatly exaggerated.

Seahawks - Russell Wilson's still getting miracle assists from Jesus in the fourth quarter, apparently.

Steelers - 435 yards of offense, and these guys don't even have Le'Veon Bell back yet.

Titans - At this rate, Mike Mularkey won't ruin Macrus Mariota's career for very long.

Texans - The rest of the AFC South is 0 - 1 - surprise, surprise!

Vikings - Who needs an offense when you've got this defense?

September 8, 2016

NFL Week 1 Picks

There are only zero days left until the 2016 NFL season begins - yeyah!!! And if you're looking for other blog fodder, be sure to check out my way-too-early playoff picks for this year and the top 10 games to watch in 2016. Let's live in the now and get right to the inaugural game picks for the year.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Denver Broncos - Kudos to the schedulers for giving us a bevy of Pro Bowlers ready to pick up right where they left off from SB 50 in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! We know these two defenses and Cam Newton will be good. What we don’t know is much of anything about Trevor Siemian, who will start under center for the Broncos after taking just one snap in his NFL career to date. Given that the Panthers won’t have a lot of game film or Josh Norman patrolling in the secondary, this game could be closer than you might think, but I’ve still got to go with the known quantity in reigning MVP Newton on this one.

New York Giants (-1) at Dallas Cowboys - And so the NFC East rollercoaster of 2016 begins with the Giants and Cowboys squaring off once again in Week 1. There are lots of mystery boxes to unwrap here. On Dallas’ side, we’ll get to see if Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott can live up to the hype in Tony Romo’s absence. On New York’s side, we’ll see if that new-look defense can rebound after an abysmal 2015 season as well as how new head coach Ben McAdoo fares in his debut. Honestly, I’m not too worried about both of these offenses putting on a good show. It’s the Cowboys’ defense sans Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence or any notable upgrades to the secondary since last year that I think will give the Giants the edge here.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6) - At long last, Jimmy Garoppolo fever is officially here! He’ll have his work cut out against former teammate Chandler Jones and friends looking to disrupt the pocket in his first NFL start. But you may recall from 2008 that you shouldn’t count out the Patriots in Tom Brady’s absence, and if they’ve got a chance here, it’ll be because Carson Palmer still has the yips and/or because Tyrann Mathieu is probably playing at less than 100%. Still, I like the Cardinals getting it done at their home opener with all of the upside on this roster.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Washington Redskinks - We’re a little short on Top Shelf games this week, so I’ll let this one slide if only to see how Josh Norman and Antonio Brown square off against each other on Monday night. Plus, it’ll be a proving ground for a Washington team that surprised a lot of people last year with a division title and playoff berth. But as good as the Redskinks looked at times in 2015, remember this when you’re placing your bets: none of those nine wins were against a team with a winning record. So I’m going to assume Washington will prove itself to be a bad good team when the heat kicks up against the Steelers this week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at New York Jets - This might be a sneaky-good game against two teams with totally reasonable hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC this year. With stout defenses and electrifying receivers on each roster, there’s certainly the chance of highlight reel fodder here. Although I think the Bengals will be the better team come December, Andy Dalton will have to throw to A.J. Green and a bunch of new guys since Tyler Eifert is sitting this one out. And the Jets have a really, really good run defense, so I'm wary about this Cincy offense's prospects in this road opener.

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1) - If there’s a candidate for craziest Week 1 shootout worth watching, I think the Raiders and Saints could give us an air show to remember. Amari Cooper will be the latest beneficiary to carve up New Orleans’ atrocious secondary while Drew Brees will probably keep doing Drew Brees things when he gets the ball. If there’s a matchup edge here though, I’m already shuddering to imagine how the Saints’ reshuffled offensive line will fare against Khalil Mack. They just haven’t looked coordinated or competent throughout the offseason, and this is the kind of baptism by fire no line wants in Week 1. Just remember, Khalil, Drew has four kids and about fifty more Jimmy John’s franchises to raise.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - We might have a wild, wild AFC West on our hands this season with four very talented rivals, so a divisional win for one of these teams could go a long way in who gets to play extra football in January. The Chargers will almost certainly be better than they were last year, especially if Melvin Gordon can finally get going in a substantive way. But an early trip to Arrowhead isn’t exactly what the turnaround doctors ordered, so I’m giving the Chiefs the edge.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - In one of the less intriguing quarterback matchups of note, Tyrod Taylor will return to Baltimore to face off with the guy he used to back up before Buffalo took a chance on him last year. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco will be coming back from an ACL injury with a vastly overhauled receiving corps to work with. But football is football, and these two teams might just come out swinging sloppy after a disappointing 2015 season, so I’m willing to imagine the upside. This feels like a coin flip kind of game, but given that the Ravens don’t seem to know who’s starting at running back or how their new defensive acquisitions will pan out, I like Buffalo’s continuity with a bunch of fun playmakers to boot.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5) - Given that J.J. Watt looks ready to return to the field and that the Bears just won the Josh Sitton sweepstakes to shore up their O-line, this game just got a little more interesting. I think you can make a good case for either team winning this one – the Bears have continued to rebuild their roster in smart ways while Brock Osweiler looks like he might just work out if the preseason was any indicator. So I’m going to go with my hunch that the Texans' defensive prospects are better at this point in the year, especially with Watt on the field.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This blog post should have its own plaque because this may in fact be the first time the Jaguars have made it out of the House Punch tier. Blake Bortles is king for a day. Of course you already know that I’m not actually going to pick Jacksonville over Green Bay here, but look at that single-digit point spread! This may no longer be the least competent team in the league, even in all-but-assured defeat.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) - Similar to my Saints/Raiders spiel above, keep an eye on how the Colts’ offensive line holds up against Ziggy Ansah and the rest of Detroit’s very good defensive front. This may not be a cakewalk for Andrew Luck’s first start in ten months. But if you’re asking me to choose between Luck at home or Matthew Stafford on the road in the fourth quarter, it’s still a no-brainer.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Although no one outside of the NFC South will be paying much attention to these teams at this point, this game is a good gut check to see whether Jameis Winston will continue to ascend in his second year and which version of the Falcons we might expect this time around. I’m going to guess Atlanta shows its better face on opening day while new Bucs coach Dirk Koetter works out the kinks in his play-calling.

Minnesota Vikings (-2) at Tennessee Titans - I am genuinely bummed for Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings this season. For all of the bad news of this previous week including Minnesota’s incomprehensible trade for Sam Bradford, the good news is that they still have a very impressive defensive roster and the best running back on the field today. Plus, they get to face Mike Mularkey’s Titans in Week 1, and I think these hobbled Vikings can still overcome that Tennessee molehill fairly easily. #famouslastwords

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) - Speaking of, how happy are Eagles fans to be freed of the hapless shackles of Sam Bradford?! Given Bradford’s exit, expect things to get pretty weird here with two new head coaches and two new quarterbacks trying to find their footing. I have no clue what to think of this game, so when in doubt, don’t pick the Browns.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - Welcome to the world of head coaching in the NFL, Adam Gase! Would you like to walk across a bed of fiery coals while chewing broken glass during your first week on the job?

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Oy vey. There’s a reason this game won’t start until 10:30pm eastern time on Monday night. Don’t trouble yourself too much with staying up for the quarterback battle of the ~~century~~ ~~day~~ later portion of Monday night between Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert. Just take comfort in the fact that your team didn’t trade away its entire future for Jared Goff, who will be riding the pine as a third-stringer this year. I know all of those ex-St. Louis Rams fans will be sleeping soundly with this knowledge.

Lovely Lady Locks

Giants -1 over Cowboys
Patriots +6 over Cardinals
Packers -5.5 over Jaguars

September 7, 2016

Quick Snaps: 2016-17 NFL Playoff Predictions

And so after weeks of trying to pretend I know anything about the future, we've arrived at the penultimate post of the preseason. Why not double down with some way-too-early, destined-to-fail playoff predictions for the end of the season?

I should note that when I did my win-loss projections for the year, Teddy Bridgewater and Tony Romo were still alive and well and projected to take their teams to a respectable 9 – 7 on the wild card bubble this year. If I had a mulligan, I think I might actually take a chance on the Chicago Bears given the Josh Sitton acquisition and John Fox’s penchant for drastically improving his previous teams in his second year as head coach. But I’ll play out the string on this one as originally designed:

AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) New England Patriots
No Brady, no problem. The Patriots weather their star quarterback's absence with relative ease before he comes back to strike down upon the rest of the AFC with great vengeance and furious anger.

2. (bye) Pittsburgh Steelers
Considering how far the Steelers have gotten these past couple of years despite major injuries and suspensions, imagine what they could do if they stay healthy for a change. With the AFC South being a major question mark and the AFC West looking highly competitive, I like the ruler of the North landing the second seed here.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
This is as good a year as any for the Chiefs to take the AFC West crown from the Broncos. Considering they ended the last regular season on a 10-game winning streak without Jamaal Charles, there's still plenty of meat on the bone for KC to make another playoff run.

4. Indianapolis Colts
It's quite possible that the Texans will come away with the top spot in the AFC South again when the dust settles, but they've only done that once when Andrew Luck has played all 16 games. A great quarterback can make up for a lot of holes elsewhere on a roster, and this one happens to be real good at fourth-quarter comebacks.

5. Cincinnati Bengals
Try as I might to underestimate them, the Bengals still look like an incredibly well-balanced, stable team that was thisclose to finally overcoming its woeful playoff drought last season. Maybe that epic collapse will serve as the motivation they need to get over the hump this time. Hey look, Lucy's holding the football!

6. Oakland Raiders
In perhaps my boldest (and dumbest) prognostication, I say the Broncos are out and the Raiders are in when the playoff bracket is drawn. There's so much young, top-level talent on this team, I'm willing to take a chance on them as the power dynamics shift in the AFC.

Wild Card Round
Chiefs over Raiders, Bengals over Colts (yes, it's finally going to happen, haters)

Divisional Round
Steelers over Chiefs, Patriots over Bengals

AFC Championship
Steelers over Patriots - Finally, Pittsburgh has the healthiest roster in the league in January and rides a hot offensive hand with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell past the Patriots, who sorely miss Chandler Jones anchoring the defensive line.

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Green Bay Packers
With one of the easiest projected schedules in 2016 and the quarterback with the highest ceiling in the league, the Packers go on a tear this season to edge out other popular top seed picks in the NFC like the Seahawks, Panthers and Cardinals.

2. (bye) Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's offensive line is still a mess, but that hasn't stopped Russell Wilson from becoming a terrifying passer to complement the Seahawks' evolving running game. Plus, the 'Hawks defense continues to be one of the most consistently dominant in the league.

3. Carolina Panthers
Although the Panthers should be just fine in the NFC South again this year, it's just plain hard to repeat a 15-win season, especially with some questions in this secondary and offensive line. Still, Carolina is a very good football team with a quarterback who grew by leaps and bounds in 2015. They've got more fuel in the tank for a while.

4. New York Giants
Seeing as the NFC East hasn't had a repeat division winner since 2004, the Giants look like the team with the most stability and star power to take the crown this time around. If New York can get out of the cellar on defense and limit turnovers, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham can take care of the rest.

5. Arizona Cardinals
Like the Bengals, the Cardinals have too much talent up and down their roster to be taken out of playoff contention. They've certainly got a shot at edging out the Seahawks for another NFC West title, but I'm still real wary about how Carson Palmer has looked under center lately. He could cost this team a couple wins if he forgets what color jerseys his receivers are wearing.

6. Dallas Cowboys
I know, I know - did you even read what I wrote at the top of this post? But let's have some fun here. Let's say Dak Prescott is good enough to get Dallas to 0.500 or better through seven games and then Tony Romo rounds things out with a fairly easy back-half schedule. Stranger things have happened. ::Cue 80s synth score::

Wild Card Round
Panthers over Cowboys, Cardinals over Giants

Divisional Round
Cardinals over Packers, Seahawks over Panthers

NFC Championship
Cardinals over Seahawks - Wait, Carson Palmer goes to a Super Bowl? Well, he might just take a page from the elderly Peyton Manning last year and play cautiously behind a defense that can absolutely annihilate the Seahawks' offensive line and generate turnovers in key moments. And if David Johnson's as good as he was last year, there might not be a lot of passing involved anyway.

The 2017 Super Bowl
Steelers over Cardinals - Hmm, I think we've seen this one before, and it could be one heckuva track meet if these two loaded offenses get going early. Believe you me, I don't want this Yinzer "Stairway to Seven" garbage any more than you do, but I can't find a good reason why the Steelers couldn't add to their ring collection if they're still healthy and in the running in February. Jinx!

More Season Previews!

Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

September 6, 2016

Top 10 Games to Watch This NFL Season

The NFL season is so close, you can smell it - grassy cleats, PEDs and all. To that end, we've got a busy kick-off week here at Lady Blitz that will include way-too-early playoff predictions and Week 1 picks. But let's start things off with the top 10 games to watch this season.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos, Week 1

The Run-Down: Reunited and it feels so good, the Panthers and Broncos will pick up right where they left off from Super Bowl 50 with nearly all of the same starters. Carolina will try to put its best vengeance plot together after getting smacked around on the biggest NFL stage last February while Denver raises a new banner in hopes that mystery man Trevor Siemian is as good or better than the corpse of Peyton Manning was last year.
Prediction: Stay tuned for all my Week 1 picks on Thursday:)

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers, Week 5

The Run-Down: Two NFC playoffs hopefuls that seem destined to improve this year will duke it out at Lambeau Field for some early-season momentum. The Giants are hoping their offseason acquisitions pay dividends for their defense, but will it be enough to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the returning Jordy Nelson?

Prediction: I’m allowed to change my mind later, but I’m going to take a chance on the Giants’ improved defensive line. I say they disrupt the pocket early and often to keep Rodgers off his usually superb rhythm and steal a tough road game.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos, Week 8

The Run-Down: Texans QB Brock Osweiler will pay a visit to his former team in hopes of proving they made a big mistake when they let him walk in free agency. And though this isn’t exactly a divisional rivalry, these teams will also be vying for position to return to the playoffs and stay atop the standings in a topsy turvy, competitive conference.
Prediction: There isn’t another defense out there that knows Osweiler’s strengths and weaknesses better than the Broncos, so I’m going to give the nod to Von Miller over J.J. Watt here. Too bad, because I'd love to see Brock get to tell John Elway to say goodbye to these one last time.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 7

The Run-Down: Could this game have all the makings of the AFC Championship preview we’ve been waiting for? With so many speedy skill players and two Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks reporting for duty at Heinz Field, we could have an excellent shootout on our hands and a big step forward for one of these teams in the playoff seeding down the line.
Prediction: This may well come down to who gets the ball last, but I like the Steelers getting a big win at home on the strength of the best wideout in the game today.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers, Week 9

The Run-Down: Speaking of great head-to-head quarterback battles, you’ll want to circle the calendar for the [presumably] healthier Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers facing off in a rare inter-conference matchup. When these guys last got together, the rookie Luck engineered one spectacular comeback after a 3 – 21 first-half deficit for the win, but I’m guessing the Packers might be a little more vigilant through four quarters this time.
Prediction: Although Andrew Luck has proven time and again that you can’t count him out until the final whistle blows, he won’t be getting a lot of help from his offensive line or defense in a hostile environment. The Cheeseheads have the upper hand here.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots, Week 10

The Run-Down: Although it’ll be hard to top that down-to-the-wire goal-line play in Super Bowl XLIX, the Seahawks and Patriots will be playing this one for pride and for jockeying in their respective conference seedings. Although the retired Marshawn Lynch won’t have the chance to punch in a go-ahead redemption touchdown this time, who am I to turn down a title card with Gronk vs. the Legion of Boom?

Prediction: There’s plenty of talent to go around on both of these teams rosters, but I think Bill Belichick will outfox Pete Carroll in Foxboro again this time.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Week 14

The Run-Down: If my preseason win-loss predictions come to pass (ha!), the Cowboys and Giants might be in a dogfight for the NFC East title when Week 14 rolls around. Although New York may get a head start with an easy schedule and a healthier team, there’s a chance Dak Prescott might just be as good as his preseason suggests and/or Tony Romo is able to return in time to regain enough ground to keep this game interesting.
Prediction: I’ve got to go Big Blue here with better defensive prospects. It’d be a crime for Odell Beckham to go another season without playing meaningful football in December.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 14

The Run-Down: And if my other win-loss predictions come to pass over in the AFC West (you can keep smirking, it’s fine), the Raiders and Chiefs might also find themselves in a heated divisional battle for a playoff spot in Week 14. Even if these teams don’t end up equally competitive, there are some matchup goodies here with Amari Cooper squaring off with Marcus Peters and Alex Smith trying to stay upright while Khalil Mack lurks in the backfield.
Prediction: As good as the upstart Raiders look on paper, just about everybody has a hard time winning at Arrowhead Stadium. The veteran Chiefs still have the edge for now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 15

The Run-Down: Steelers-Bengals has become arguably the nastiest rivalry in football these days, last punctuated by an ugly wild card game with more dirty hits, mind games and personal fouls than you could shake a chili bowl at. So expect the blood and guts to fly in a high-stakes, late-season battle royale in the very place where that insane wild card game took place. And light a candle for poor Antonio Brown to survive this time.

Prediction: These teams will probably split their series, so let’s go two ruptured spleens, one dislocated knee and an untimely ejection.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Week 16

The Run-Down: Seattle has a ton of other good games on the docket in 2016 including preseason NFC frontrunners like the Packers and Panthers. But they’ve gotten plenty of airtime on this list, and we can’t count out the Cardinals, even if Carson Palmer has looked like wet garbage since the NFC Championship. With deep rosters of playmakers on both sides of the ball, this could be the granddaddy of late-season divisional matchups to watch. Here’s hoping!
Prediction: With Arizona adding Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche to the mix this offseason, Seattle’s offensive line could be in trouble in this one. But I still like the Seahawks in big late-season moments better than the other guys.

More Season Previews!

Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year