August 25, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team, NFC West Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team.  At long last, we will conclude our team previews with predictions for the NFC West.  They'll be taking on the mostly middling NFC South and the emerging AFC East.  What will happen?  I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:


Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinals get all the way through January with their limbs and internal organs intact, and the addition of Chandler Jones gives Arizona the kind of pass rush just about everyone outside of Denver has dreamed of this year. Bruce Arians continues to build on his case for the Hall of Fame by taking the Carson Palmer-led Cards to their first Super Bowl in nearly a decade.

Worst Case Scenario: Palmer’s best days are already behind him and he starts melting down on a weekly basis that’s as painful to watch as that recent NFC Championship in Carolina. With Tyrann Mathieu still recovering from another ACL injury, Arizona’s secondary is just too porous for the pass rush to take hold. Arizona sinks back to 0.500 and starts thinking seriously about its next move under center.

Bellwether Match Up: Naturally, anything involving the Seahawks will matter greatly for the Cardinals' postseason fate.  But I have a feeling they've been lying in wait for Week 8 when they travel back to Carolina for the first time since that gruesome NFC Championship.  Arizona--and Carson Palmer in particular--have a lot of atoning to do to prove they're still the best team in football.

Prediction: If you want to be proven wrong, bet against Bruce Arians. But given Carson Palmer’s age and penchant for mental and physical beatings as well as Mathieu’s injury, I think the Cardinals will slide just a little bit to 11 – 5 with a very tough road in January.


Los Angeles Rams

Best Case Scenario: Todd Gurley breaks the 2K barrier on the ground, and Jared Goff proves pro-ready right out of the gate by playing the role of king-maker with the Rams’ anonymous receiving corps. L.A.’s offense finally holds up its end of the bargain alongside a perennially mean pass rush and gives this team their first winning season in 13 (!!!) years.

Worst Case Scenario: Gurley is sidelined with a major injury after being heavily overused against defenses inclined to load the box and take their chances on a rookie quarterback. To that end, Goff is overwhelmed early and often behind a questionable offensive line and starts hearing murmurs of Ryan Leaf. The Rams decide to keep Jeff Fisher anyway after a ten- to twelve-loss season.

Bellwether Match Up: It still feels weird to type "Los Angeles Rams" so this team's home opener in Week 2 will be their first chance to make a meaningful impression on their new/old fans on the west coast.  Unfortunately that game is against the Seahawks.  Good luck, L.A. Rams!

Prediction: Even if Goff ends up being pretty good, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of quarterback who can turn around an offense with lots of question marks not named Gurley. Los Angeles will struggle to fill the stands with actual Rams fans when this team limps to 6 – 10.


San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario: Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert engineer one of the better comeback campaigns of the last five years and get the 49ers back to 0.500 or better.  With Kelly no longer playing anti-GM, San Francisco starts rebuilding a respectable defense that looks ready to compete in 2017.

Worst Case Scenario: Gabbert continues to be Gabbert with drive-killing turnovers and feelings of abject terror in the pocket.  Because Kelly's not so hot on running the ball or milking the clock, Carlos Hyde starts collecting dust and hoping for a trade while the 49ers defense crumbles under a terrible time of possession scenario.  But probably Kelly stays another year since not even a hobo would come work for Jed York at this point.

Bellwether Match Up: Chip Kelly might have been in the catbird seat when situated in the flimsy NFC East, but that won't be the case this time around with six games against the sturdy NFC West.  Let's see how these new-look Niners do in Weeks 3 and 5 against the Seahawks and Cardinals respectively.

Prediction: Although Kelly is almost certain to bring more hope to the tragically yuppie city of Santa Clara than Jim Tomsula ever could (poor Jim Tomsula), this is still a team that will probably be helmed by Blaine Gabbert.  Blaine. Gabbert.  And their all-around talent may be even worse off than that 7 - 9 Eagles squad last year.  So I think the 49ers tread water at 5 - 11 until they can do more with their defense to mitigate an uninspiring offense.


Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario: Russell Wilson goes on another quarterbacking tear with a 40-touchdown season aided by a healthier, more well-integrated Jimmy Graham to terrify opposing defenses opposite Doug Baldwin.  The Legion of Boom keeps doing its thing, and the Seahawks rise back to the top of the NFC for their third Super Bowl appearance in four years.

Worst Case Scenario: If there's one Achilles Heel to look out for with this team, it's the offensive line that gave up 53 sacks last season including seven in the playoffs.  That might not get better with center Russell Okung departing for Denver this offseason.  So if Wilson goes down with an ill-timed injury and Seattle's morphing run game can't make up the difference, you could see the Seahawks losing a second NFC West title to the Cardinals and hoping the wild card race isn't too competitive.

Bellwether Match Up: There are lots of goodies on the Seahawks' schedule this season including the two teams that sealed their playoff fate during the past two years (the Panthers and Patriots).  But I'm looking forward to another unpredictable row with the Packers in Week 14.  If both of these teams end up as good as I think they'll be, this game could have major seeding implications in January.

Prediction: The Seahawks' dominance over these past three seasons is undeniable, and they still look built to go the distance with no signs of slowing down this year, especially with Russell Wilson's rise from wonderful to spectacular under center.  I've got Seattle going 12 - 4 in a hotly contested battle for the top seed in the NFC alongside Carolina and Green Bay.  Stay tuned for my doomed foolproof playoff predictions next week to see what will come of this imaginary battle royale!



More Season Previews!

Win-Loss Predictions
 

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year
 

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