August 9, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC South Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the AFC South.  They'll be taking on the highly competitive AFC West and the NFC North rollercoaster.  What will happen?  I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:


Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: Well, the Colts could do me a solid by going 13 - 3 like I tried to predict last year instead of crashing and burning at the banks of Andrew Luck's lacerated kidney.  But it's safe to say the Colts still have the best quarterback in the AFC South, so they could sweep the division like old times to nab another title and hopefully avoid the Patriots for the first couple of rounds in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Last year exposed the uglier side of the Colts' roster that they couldn't ultimately Andrew Luck their way out of.  And given their very quiet offseason, they could get some very similar results in 2016 with a shaky offensive line and an uneven roster that just hasn't been good enough to beat the better teams in the NFL.  If Indy can't make it above 0.500 in the AFC South, they'll have to make up for it against the likes of the Broncos, Packers and Steelers.  Repeating 8 - 8 is a possibility, even if their star quarterback makes it through all 16 games.

Bellwether Match Up: For all their struggles with the Patriots, the Colts have had the Broncos' number in recent years.  A litmus test for how well Indy's offensive line has rebounded (or not) will be when they travel to Denver in Week 2 and try to keep Luck's spine intact versus Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Prediction: The crystal ball is a bit murky for me on this one, but I still think the AFC South is Indy's to lose after a forgettable 2015 campaign.  I say the Colts bounce back with a respectable 10 - 6 record at the top of the division again.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: All of the offseason hype for the Jaguars pans out, and they're a force to be reckoned with due to their high-octane passing game and well-drafted defense.  Jacksonville flips the script on last year's awful turnover differential with improved efficiency from Blake Bortles and relentless pocket pressure on defense led by Dante Fowler, and the Jaguars finally get that winning record that has eluded them for nearly a decade.

Worst Case Scenario: Welp, seeing as how the Jags' top two draft picks this year are still recovering from major knee injuries, this team could stay put in the three- to five-win cellar of the AFC.  With a young quarterback who might be enamored enough with Allen Robinson to throw into triple coverage and a defense that's getting already thinner, a plateau of disappointment could be in Jacksonville's future.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Jaguars could stun the Packers in Week 1, that'd get a whole lot more people talking, but the much more important stretch of their season will be the last three weeks against each of their division rivals.

Prediction: Everyone loves a feel-good underdog story, and I think the Jaguars will improve.  Still, the universe can't handle a scenario where both the Jags and the Chicago Cubs win their divisions in the same year, so I see Jacksonville getting a little closer to good at 7 - 9.


Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Given that the Texans have managed two consecutive winning seasons under coach Bill O'Brien with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Hoyer, things only get better with Manning understudy Brock Osweiler taking the reins.  Assuming playmakers J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller stay healthy, it's not hard to see Houston earning double-digit wins and another AFC South title.

Worst Case Scenario: Well, J.J. Watt has already had back surgery this offseason, so that ain't good. And as solid as the Texans' defense has been these past few years, they aren't nearly as good as the historic 2015 Broncos' defense, which means there's a lot of pressure on Osweiler to do more under center to win than he ever had to in Denver.  Another backup QB bust in Houston could have this team treading water again in the six- to eight-win tier.

Bellwether Match Up: Like most years, the Texans' head-to-head battles with the Colts will probably matter the most when all is said and done this season.  BUT who doesn't want to see how Osweiler does when his new team travels to Mile High in Week 7?  A win against the Broncos would justify that chip on his shoulder and also build confidence for a Houston team that has always struggled to beat the best in the conference.

Prediction: The Texans are such a tough team to pin down.  They've jumped from 12 - 4 to 2 - 14 to 9 - 7 in recent years, and got absolutely walloped in the Wild Card round last season after barely topping the worst division in the NFL.  With Andrew Luck back in the saddle, the Jaguars looking better, and Houston having a tougher schedule, I'm projecting a slide to 7 - 9.


Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Marcus Mariota takes a turn a la Peyton Manning in his sophomore year and carries the Titans to their best season in five years.  Big investments in the Titans' offensive line and running game give them that exotic smashmouth identity they've been missing since CJ2K, and they become a popular darkhorse playoff choice for 2017-18.

Worst Case Scenario: Mariota gets turned to pink mist immediately in September, and the Titans are reduced to starting Matt Cassel under a coach who last went 2 - 14 with the Jaguars.  Tennessee remains a laughing stock in the AFC, even in comparison to the Browns.

Bellwether Match Up: With a new coach and a young quarterback, it's crucial that this team gain some confidence early in the season to build on.  So I'd keep an eye on the Titans' first divisional road game in Houston in Week 4 to see if they can move up in the AFC South this year.

Prediction: It would be hard for the Titans to repeat the miseries and bad luck of the last two seasons in full, and I expect that Mariota will be better with some help at the line and on the ground.  But there's still a pretty long to-do list with Tennessee's rebuild, and who trusts Mike Mularkey to engineer such a thing?  I'm giving the Titans a rose-tinted 5 - 11 and the chance to hire a legitimate coach in 2017.


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