August 4, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC North Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the AFC North  They'll be taking on the emerging AFC East and the mystery box that is the NFC East.  What will happen?  I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:


Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Grateful for his release from death's grip Washington, RG3 turns over a new leaf that looks an awful lot like his Heisman and Rookie of the Year campaigns.  Hue Jackson molds Griffin in the way he did with Andy Dalton a year ago, into an efficient high-scoring machine that gets people talking about the Browns' playoff potential in 2017.

Worst Case Scenario: It is the Browns, so we've seen this scenario play out over and over again. With one of the best centers in the game leaving for Atlanta, Griffin gets turned to dust before the yardline paint has dried.  Jackson can't work miracles with a team that is a lot less talented and experienced than the Bengals were, and Cleveland gets to work finding their seventh coach and 17th starting quarterback in the past decade.

Bellwether Match Up: Usually for the Browns, this means what game that I think they might be able to win.  Why not try to catch the Eagles with their guard down in Week 1 while they're still getting used to a new coach and pretending like Sam Bradford is still a thing?

Prediction: Although getting Josh Gordon back could help pump up this offense, I'm pretty skeptical that Cleveland is going to have any football-related things to cheer for this fall.  Better to turn your attention to The Tribe while the Browns sputter to 3 - 13.


Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: It turns out that Andy Dalton really did turn the corner last season, and with a healthy hand, he bests the 106 passer rating he achieved before getting injured.  The Bengals continue to be the most well-rounded team in the division on both sides of the ball, and they finally get a first-round bye and that painfully elusive playoff win after last year's unfathomable collapse.

Worst Case Scenario: Dalton regresses back to the mean and coughs the ball up too many times for the Bengals to stay atop the AFC North.  With Hue Jackson moving to a rival team, Cincy's offense takes a big step back and the team misses the playoffs for the first time since 2010.  Marvin Lewis leaves to coach the Jaguars.

Bellwether Match Up: With two to three teams that are always in the running for the playoffs in this division, it will be imperative for the Bengals to finish strong.  Given how nasty their rivalry has gotten with the Steelers in recent years, expect some blood splatter when these two close out their regular season series in Cincinnati in Week 15.

Prediction: There's no denying how solid and consistent the Bengals have been since I started writing this blog, and they'll be bringing back most of the same talent that got them to 12 - 4 last season.  Still, I'm not sure Andy Dalton is as good as his career-best from 2015, so I see Cincy taking a small slide to 9 - 7 with another doomed-from-the-start wild card spot.


Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: Simply by virtue of not having terrible luck like last year, the Ravens take a steep upswing back to double-digit wins and a playoff bid.  Joe Flacco returns to form from injury and looks great throwing to actual real-life receivers like Ben Watson and Mike Wallace.

Worst Case Scenario: Flacco turns out to be more Jekyll than Hyde coming off his ACL injury and the Ravens consider starting Ryan Mallett after a particularly brutal stretch.  With Baltimore still a year away from building a roster that can compete with the Bengals or Steelers, the Ravens stay home in January and mull over whether it will be worth releasing Flacco for just $8 million in 2020.

Bellwether Match Up: Baltimore has a pretty scary back-end schedule that could make or break their playoff hopes.  Even if they're up 7 - 5 after Week 13, they'll have to travel to Foxborough, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during the last four weeks of the season, and they'll need to win a couple of those to stay in postseason contention.

Prediction: I was stunned that Baltimore faltered as badly as it did last season, so more notches in the win column are highly likely this year.  That said, I'm not sure the Ravens have done enough at this point to shore up their defense in the twilight of Terrell Suggs' career.  I'm going 8 - 8 and another year for Ozzie Newsome to bring it all back together.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: You can make a solid argument that the Steelers are second only to the Patriots in the AFC in terms of their ceiling these days.  The missing piece over the past couple of seasons has been health, so Pittsburgh's best case scenario would be to earn that first-round bye and have a healthy Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell throughout January... and February too.

Worst Case Scenario: If any of the big three on offense go down before the end of the season, it'll be another missed opportunity for Pittsburgh to add to its ring collection while Ben Roethlisberger is in his prime.  Steelers fans don't want to take a page from the Memphis Grizzlies and roll out some kind of ill-fated second-string suicide squad in the wild card round.  You could almost see Mike Tomlin resting starters in December in exchange for a lower seed just to make sure they can play meaningful football in January, but I don't see them missing the playoffs barring a devastating injury somewhere.

Bellwether Match Up: Let's put the other half of the amulet together from my AFC East edition and say the Steelers' match up with the Patriots in Week 7 will be a conference heavyweight battle this year.

Prediction: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh as long as Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are on the field, not to mention a young, new defensive core that is starting to emerge.  I like Pittsburgh going a healthy 11 - 5 with that coveted first-round bye in the AFC.


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