Denver Broncos
Best Case Scenario: With Von Miler locked up for the long term, that Denver defense remains a force to be reckoned with, and Mark Sanchez/Paxton Lynch are still somehow an upgrade from Peyton Manning last year. The Broncos cruise to another division title and Super Bowl appearance, stoking lots of dynasty talk.Worst Case Scenario: All the things that had to go right for Denver last year don't repeat, and the defense has some big setbacks with injuries and/or declining performance from Miller post-contract-signing. Sanchez is actually much worse than a geriatric Peyton Manning in giving up turnovers, so the Broncos defense is worn out well before January and they cede the AFC West crown to someone else for the first time in six years.
Prediction: Denver certainly has the talent to stay at the top of the AFC, but I'm going to subscribe to a couple of theories 1) that Miller won't be quite as good now that he has that big contract and 2) that the Broncos won't have quite the luck they did last season. They'll still earn a respectable 9 - 7 but get edged out by other AFC teams that have been waiting in the wings for Peyton Manning's retirement.
San Diego Chargers
Best Case Scenario: With a final-final season in San Diego fairly likely for the Chargers, they go out with a bang. Keenan Allen picks up where he left off before getting injured last year, Melvin Gordon puts all of the pieces together on the ground, and Philip Rivers finally achieves an MVP season that takes his team to the top of the division. The Chargers offense gives those of the Patriots and Steelers a run for their money in the playoffs.Worst Case Scenario: Joey Bosa's standoff with San Diego's miserly front office ends in a spite-trade, and the Chargers shoot themselves in the foot on defense before the season even starts. Without Eric Weddle or Bosa, this team sinks to the bottom of the league in points allowed (yes, even worse than the Saints) and Rivers is reduced to throwing pick-sixes every other week out of desperation. The Chargers end their time in SoCal with a whimper to mostly empty stands.
Prediction: It's hard to see San Diego doing worse than last year, given all of the injuries they had and their good offseason work to address major weaknesses on the roster. Nevertheless, this team might just have the short straw in a division where you can envision every other team making the playoffs this year. I see the Chargers earning a hard-fought 7 - 9 season while they pack their suitcases for L.A.
Kansas City Chiefs
Best Case Scenario: The Chiefs pick up right where they left off last year when they won 10 straight games to close out the regular season. With the Broncos regressing just enough, Kansas City surges to the top of the division with deep, reliable talent on both sides of the ball anchored by a mean pass rush that wins just about every turnover and field position battle.Worst Case Scenario: It turns out that Doug Pederson was essential to Alex Smith's career revival, and the Chiefs offense struggles to pick up the pieces with an aging, hobbled Jamaal Charles and Pederson off to coach the Eagles. Smith has his worst season since Niners fans infamously demanded that David Carr take over, and the hot seat takes on a mild warming quality for Andy Reid in 2017.
Prediction: The smart, safe thing to do would probably be to put the Chiefs second to the Broncos with a wild card bid, but I'm going to roll the dice a bit and say the stars will align for Kansas City to top the AFC West with a solid 10 - 6 record.
Oakland Raiders
Best Case Scenario: Khalil Mack goes full beast mode with 20 sacks and anchors a mean Raiders defense that can't be solved by most of the great QBs they'll face this year. Oakland also becomes more formidable on offense with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper going together like Eli Manning and Odell Beckham. The Black Hole hosts its first playoff game since 2002 and the Raiders make waves by getting to the divisional round.Worst Case Scenario: Barring major injuries, it's hard to envision this team taking many steps back with a promising core of young talent. But if the Chiefs and Chargers continue to improve and the Broncos stay at the top, Oakland could be the odd team out in the playoffs with only a little time left to boost their supporting roster before they need to resign Mack and Carr.
Prediction: In the first eight weeks of 2016, Oakland will face only one opponent that had a winning record last season, and they've got a lot of talent that has started to produce on both sides of the ball. I'm buying high on the Raiders with a 9 - 7 record and a wild card bid.
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