Lady Blitz: Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: NFC South Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, coming down the home stretch with the NFC South. They'll be taking on the highly competitive AFC West and the half-great, half-terrible NFC West. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: These Falcons are a whole lot more like the ones that started out 6 – 1 than the ones that slumped to 2 – 7 at the end of 2015. With Alex Mack anchoring the offensive line, Atlanta becomes unstoppable on the ground, and Dan Quinn’s defensive schemes start taking hold against the formidable quarterbacks of the NFC South. A late season surge allows the Falcons to edge out the Panthers for the division crown after three years lying dormant.

Worst Case Scenario: Dan Quinn goes the way of fellow Legion of Boom expat Gus Bradley and just can’t turn the Falcons defense around. Atlanta is reduced to trying to win shootouts every Sunday, which only exacerbates Matt Ryan’s turnover problems of recent years. The Falcons plummet in the NFC South after another lost four-win season.

Bellwether Match Up: So if you want to know what the league's toughest schedule of 2016 looks like, look no further than Weeks 4 - 8 for the Falcons where they face the Panthers, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers in a span of five weeks. Getting swept there would probably seal Atlanta's fate before the second half of the season even begins.

Prediction: Shaking off the ghost of Roddy White and bringing in Alex Mack should certainly help the Falcons recapture some of the offensive success they had early in 2015. But they’ve got an incredibly tough schedule ahead this season, so I’m projecting another 8 – 8 campaign, albeit one that looks qualitatively better than last year’s and reignites buzz about this team for 2017.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Welp, the Panthers lived whatever best case scenario anyone could have dreamed up last year short of a Super Bowl win. With Cam Newton taking a transcendent MVP turn, top receiver Kelvin Benjamin returning to the field, and nearly all of Carolina’s stacked defensive roster returning, the sky’s the limit for this young and supremely talented team. The best case scenario here is Lombardi or bust with a big ol’ chip on the Panthers’ shoulder for motivation.

Worst Case Scenario: Similar to the Broncos, the Panthers regress toward the mean after a season where nearly everything went right. Carolina’s floor is still higher than most of their divisional foes’ ceiling, so it’s hard to imagine them missing the playoffs altogether, but a key injury or failure to adequately replace Josh Norman could let a lot of talent go to waste with a fourth-seed/early playoff exit kind of year.

Bellwether Match Up: You know Carolina has that season opener against the Broncos circled many times over on the calendar. After getting absolutely throttled on the biggest stage of the year in February, Cam Newton & co. are going to want to start things out on the right foot against Denver's brutal pass rush.

Prediction: These Panthers and the fearless Riverboat Ron look primed for another strong season atop the NFC South where they’ve made quite a home the past three seasons. I’ve got Carolina going 12 – 4 and being in strong contention for a top seed in the conference.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Drew Brees has one last late-career surge a la Brett Favre in 2009 or Peyton Manning in 2013 and single-armedly carries the Saints to the playoffs. The Saints defense under DC Dennis Allen becomes merely bad instead of abysmal so that Brees can finally rest comfortably by putting up 30 points per game.

Worst Case Scenario: Brees’ age starts to show with declining accuracy and arm strength, making the Saints’ offense too predictable and turnover-prone to do its usual magic. Given that top draft pick Sheldon Rankins is already out with a broken leg and New Orleans just cut starting cornerback Keenan Lewis, the defense ends up being just as historically bad as its been for the past two years, and the Saints can muster only four wins before Brees and Sean Payton walk away for good.

Bellwether Match Up: In the Saints' first four weeks, they'll face Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones and Keenan Allen. That's quite the trial by fire to see whether this defense--particularly the secondary--has improved even one mite.

Prediction: You might have noticed that I’m desperately trying to manage expectations with the Saints these days. So I’m wrapping myself in a cocoon of low standards and giving New Orleans a disappointing but apropos 6 – 10 record. Note however that once in a while, teams that I pick to go 6 – 10 end up going 15 – 1 and reaching the Super Bowl, so there.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: Now that the Buccaneers have put all of their chips in on Dirk Koetter under the headset, Jameis Winston has a spectacular sophomore season where his production and performance take him to the next level on the elite QB spectrum. Tampa becomes a dark horse in the wild card race that could end up challenging the Panthers in another year or two.

Worst Case Scenario: Karma catches up with the Buccaneers big time after that nasty phone breakup with Lovie Smith. Winston can’t get out of his own way with a number of red zone turnovers/pick sixes, and Koetter proves to be well outside of his weight class when it comes to game management. Tampa shakes up the Etch-a-Sketch at head coach once more after another underwhelming season in hopes that 8 – 8 will eventually happen.

Bellwether Match Up: At some point, the Buccaneers will need to show they can beat up on more than just the bottom feeders to be taken seriously. So why not try to upset the Panthers on the road in Week 5?

Prediction: There’s plenty of reason to believe Tampa should continue its upward trajectory, especially given Winston’s development as a pro throughout 2015. Still, these are the Buccaneers. They’ve done nothing but shoot down every glimmer of hype an ESPN pundit has tried to throw their way in the past decade. So 6 - 10 still seems about right.