August 27, 2015

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, which really has nowhere to go but up after a historically bad 2014 season.  They can certainly score some cheap wins against the worse teams of the AFC South and NFC East, but it's hard to know who will come out on top after lots of shakeups all around this division in the offseason.  Also be forewarned, fellow Saints fans, I am putting on my very best hex this year after predicting them to make the NFC Championship last season and getting a four-month-long punch in the gut in return.


Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: With not-Mike Smith coaching, an influx of defensive talent and fresher legs for the Falcons' run game, Atlanta charges ahead in a very weak division.  They don't even have to pump crowd noise in at the Georgia Dome anymore because Falcons fans come back out of the woodwork to cheer on this peaking rollercoaster of a franchise in January.

Worst Case Scenario: All the coaching changes in the world still can't make up for the Falcons' brittle offensive line, and should Julio Jones tweak that hamstring again, Matt Ryan might become pink mist before the season is over.  Nevertheless, it's hard to see the Falcons having a much lower floor than their ceiling last year, so they could still improve by 1-2 wins in this scenario.

Bellwether Match Up: Since just about every team in this division should look elsewhere for a true litmus test, I'm intrigued by Atlanta's Week 1 opener with the Philadelphia Eagles.  This could give us a good clue as to whether or not the Falcons defense is on the upswing under Legion of Boom mastermind Dan Quinn and also whether this team can contend with franchises in the next tier.

Prediction: I feel kind of nuts for saying this, but I see significant improvements in the Falcons' future. Having addressed big gaps in this defense and making serious upgrades on this coaching staff are big, and so is the fact that Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the NFL.  I'll hex them a 10 - 6 record and division title.  Muhahahaha.


Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Unphased by Kelvin Benjamin's season-ending injury, the Panthers remain one of the best ground-and-pound teams in the NFL and wear down the rest of the NFC South for the third year in a row.  Carolina at its best probably won't look pretty this season, but this team always has a shot as long as that bruising defense stays healthy.

Worst Case Scenario: The loss of Benjamin is just too much for Cam Newton to overcome, especially since the Panthers have plenty reason to be worried about their offensive line.  Newton lasts about six weeks before getting hit one time too many, and Carolina falls swiftly back to earth after an improbable division win in 2014.

Bellwether Match Up: The Panthers have a brutal four-week stretch in the middle of the season when they face the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers.  The rest of the division only plays Philadelphia and Indy, so Carolina will need to stand its ground against those previous NFC championship contenders to stay in the hunt.

Prediction: With Kelvin Benjamin out of the lineup and little else to cheer about with the Panthers' receiving corps and offensive line, things could get really ugly for Carolina this season. I see this team sliding to 6 - 10 and contemplating Ron Rivera's seat temperature once more.


New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Even after dropping a number of big names in the offseason, the Saints' stylistic shift from a finesse offense to a ground-and-pound bully pays off, especially in protecting fourth quarter leads.  Drew Brees rebounds after a disappointing 2014 season and helps New Orleans eke out its first division title in four years with an emerging new supporting cast on offense.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite becoming a beloved adopted son of the city, it turns out Rob Ryan is just as bad at running a defense as we've come to suspect.  With another abysmal year on that side of the ball, Brees is forced into 45+ passing attempts per game without Jimmy Graham and the Saints' effort to boost their ground game become irrelevant.  New Orleans continues to plod toward a disappointing end to Brees' football career.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Saints have a shot at the NFC South title, they will have to have a much better year against their divisional rival Falcons.  And if both teams rediscover the mojo they've had in recent years, we could be in for an all-the-marbles battle royale when the Saints travel to Atlanta in Week 17.

Prediction: Although New Orleans' bold attempts to shore up a terrible defense have been admirable (especially in spite of dumping human disaster Junior Galette), I just can't believe things will be much better until I see it.  I see the Saints improving slightly to 8 - 8 and starting to seriously ponder life without Drew Brees and possibly Sean Payton.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: Rookie QB Jameis Winston lives up to the hype and makes the long-floundering Bucs immediate contenders. With tons of talent all around from the likes of Mike Evans, Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, Tampa finally puts the pieces together in a breakout season on both sides of the ball and returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Worst Case Scenario: Winston's flashes of brilliance are eclipsed by many a bone-headed turnover that plagued this QB at Florida State last season. Although he's still enough of an upgrade from Josh McCown to improve Tampa's win totals a little bit, Winston starts drawing comparisons of Ryan Leaf to Marcus Mariota's Peyton Manning in Nashville.

Bellwether Match Up: Speaking of, the Buccaneers host the Titans in Week 1!  As I said in our AFC South preview, you can't really expect either rookie QB to light the world on fire during their pro football debuts. But with the inevitable hype and comparisons that will surround this game, it will be interesting to see whether Mariota or Winston shows more poise and resilience after the dust settles.

Prediction: Especially given the woes for the Panthers and plenty of holes on the other NFC South rosters, I'm willing to take a bit of a chance with the Buccaneers.  I'll hex them into a mercurial rise to 7 - 9 and lots of buzz about their potential heading into 2016.


More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

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