August 13, 2015

2015 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC South

Quick Blogger's Note: My submission for the Saints made the cut in Deadpin's annual "Why Your Team Sucks" NFL preview yesterday!  Check it out here.  And if you aren't reading these yet, get on it - you won't be disappointed!

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2015 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC South, a perennial underperformer of a division that might just have a chance against the shoddy NFC South and AFC East this year... or not.


Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Brian Hoyer brings his passer miracle-working from Cleveland to Houston and keeps the Texans offense afloat while Arian Foster recovers from a nasty groin injury for the first half of the season.  It's tough to imagine Houston making the postseason with so many cards currently stacked against them, but an 8 - 8 year would be respectable assuming they can't find a way to clone J.J. Watt 11 times.

Worst Case Scenario: With Foster down for the count and the Colts firmly in control in the AFC South, the Texans have another lackluster season with little more than Watt highlight reels to show for it.  Talk turns from the playoffs to juicy top 10 draft picks by Thanksgiving.

Bellwether Match Up: The Texans' biggest bully continues to be the Colts, and unless Indy picks up Curtis Painter back up off the waiver wire, toppling this rival would be a worthy victory for a team with many question marks going into the season.  The Texans host the Colts in Week 5 and will be scrapping for respectability and a reason to hope.

Prediction: I know this sounds bleak and all, but I am concerned about Houston's ability to put points on the board with Foster out for an extended period and the Texans starting their fifth quarterback in three seasons.  BUT if the Jaguars and Titans continue to have their own growing pains, the Texans could do enough to scrape together 7 - 9.


Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: With the Colts getting better and better every year since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came town, this team runs the table against the weakly AFC South and NFC South, nabbing a top seed in the playoffs and their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010.

Worst Case Scenario: Seeing as how Indy has made solid roster upgrades with Frank Gore and Trent Cole where they once had holes, I really can't see this team winning less than ten games this season unless something terrible and unexpected happens.  But I'm also guessing the Colts would prefer not to see the Patriots in the playoffs if at all possible this year - being on the wrong end of a January rout would be a major disappointment.

Bellwether Match Up: You guessed it - the biggest game of the season for this team has to be hosting the Patriots in Week 6.  Chuck Pagano's Colts have yet to prove they can out-coach and out-muscle the dynastic Pats, and coming away with a win while New England has Ballghazi vengeance on the brain would give this team a lot more confidence whenever they inevitably meet again.

Prediction: With one of the easiest schedules in the league and a quarterback who has lived up to every ounce of the hype so far, I see the Colts making the leap--or their next leap, anyway--and seizing the top of the AFC at 13 - 3.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: Sigh. I'm never sure how to put the right amount of realism and tact into the Jaguars' best case scenario these days. Maybe Julius Thomas will make Blake Bortles suddenly look like a first-round draft pick.  Maybe Gus Bradley's defense will rekindle some of that mean streak he first instilled in Seattle's Legion of Boom.  But most likely, it will be a minor miracle if Jacksonville in its Red Zone Channel-blasting, swimming pool-installing glory wins six games this year.

Worst Case Scenario: These Jaguars aren't 2009 Detroit Lions bad, but seeing as how they haven't won more five games a season in five years and first rounder Dante Fowler is already out for 2015 with a torn ACL, one or two wins and another blown draft pick next May isn't out of the question.

Bellwether Match Up: We'll know just how low the Jaguars can go depending on how they show up against the fellow bottom-feeder Jets in Week 9.  But thanks to IK Enemkpali's recent intra-Jets sabotage, I'm now spotting the Jags an extra win!

Prediction: Because the purgatory never ends in Jacksonville, this team looks ripe for a 4 - 12 kind of season.  Heck, they might just stay in London after Week 7 to save on moving costs in a couple years.  [Sorry to be mean, non-existent Jaguars fans.]


Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Marcus Mariota takes a page from RG3/Andrew Luck and has an immediate impact on the Titans' win totals.  Tennessee takes advantage of a weak division/schedule, sneaks into second place in the AFC South and becomes a sleeper favorite for 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Mariota falls victim to the ever-changing whims of Ken Whisenhunt and can't make the transition to the pros after thriving in Oregon's unorthodox spread offense.  Tennessee still has way too many holes just about everywhere else on the roster to be competitive and the Wiz gets the boot after two non-starter seasons with this anonymously bad team.

Bellwether Match Up: I am geeking out at the possibility of a #1 - #2 duel between Mariota and Jameis Winston in Tampa for Week 1, but it's hard to imagine these two rookie QBs playing their best in their very first starts as pros.  Be sure to check back in on the Titans when they head to Houston in Week 8 - that might tell us more about where this team is going within the divisional pecking order in the long run.

Prediction: I'm high on Mariota.  After all, what else is there to like or even remember about these Titans?  I think he's got the chops to improve this team from two wins to 6 - 10 right off the bat, but Tennessee's front office is going to have to do more in the coming years to build a winner.



More Ill-Fated Win-Loss Predictions!

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