August 18, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: NFC North Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the NFC North.  They'll be taking on the mystery box that is the NFC East and the fragile AFC South.  What will happen?  I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:


Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: John Fox has had a solid record as a sophomore coach, improving the Panthers by 4 wins with a Super Bowl appearance in 2003 and improving the Broncos by 5 wins with a top seed in 2012.  Fox's turnaround magic takes hold with the Bears who win their first division title since 2010 with a vastly improved young defense.

Worst Case Scenario: Without Matt Forte or Martellus Bennett around to pick up the slack and many questions at tackle, Jay Cutler continues to melt down on a weekly basis.  The Bears take their chances again with Jimmy Clausen in hopes of landing a top pick in next year's loaded draft instead of a playoff bid.

Bellwether Match Up: It's hard to pin down where the Bears might land in this division, so assuming they can stay near 0.500 for most of the season, they need a good win visiting Detroit in Week 14 to stay in the hunt throughout December.

Prediction: Not knowing what Cutler we'll get or how long he'll last considering he hasn't started all 16 games since 2009, I'm going to go against John Fox's history and keep the Bears firmly at 6 - 10 and another year to resent that massive QB contract.


Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: The Lions' strong 6 - 2 finish last season turns out to be a sign of things to come and they stay in contention with a manageable first-half schedule.  Calvin Johnson's retirement ends up forcing Matt Stafford to distribute the ball more efficiently, which gives Detroit its best shot at winning a playoff game in 25 years.

Worst Case Scenario: These are the Lions, so they might just add to a long list of painful, undeserved losses like that uncalled batted ball and the Miracle in Motown, which continue to remind us just how doomed this team is.  Plus, with Megatron gone and not drawing double coverage every week, you can see Stafford crumbling under the weight of indecision and turnovers and Detroit landing yet another wasted top five pick.

Bellwether Match Up: It probably won't matter much in the division standings when all is said and done, but the Lions have a vendetta to settle in Week 16 when they travel to Jerryworld.  It will be the first time they get to face the Cowboys after that bizarre 2014 wild card game where the referees decided that they too hate Detroit as much as the merciless wheel of fate does.

Prediction: On the one hand, the Lions were two insane plays away from 9 - 7 last year and ended on a promising hot streak.  On the other hand, I'm still really sad about Megatron's retirement and can't see how Detroit won't pay for it on a karmic level.  Let's keep this team steady at a mildly disappointing 7 - 9 plateau.


Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: Jordy Nelson's back and the Packers are looking at the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL this season.  Not to mention, Aaron Rodgers might play even better than last year when he appeared to be dealing with some kind of nagging injury.  So Green Bay might have the easiest path to 13+ wins in the whole league with the stars seeming to align.

Worst Case Scenario: Welp, the Packers might have to play without their starting linebackers for a spell if the Ginger Hammer doesn't like what they have to say about PED use.  That could cost the Packers a win or two given how they've struggled to find balance beyond their MVP passer at times.  I don't think anything but a Rodgers injury would keep this team out of the playoffs, but there are a couple scenarios where they could play second fiddle to Minnesota again.

Bellwether Match Up: If Green Bay is gunning for another top seed in the NFC this year, they'll have to get past the Seahawks in Week 14.  Barring another Fail Mary or botched onside kick, the Packers might just pull it off.

Prediction: I'm giving the Packers a rock solid 12 - 4 record (or better) and the top seed in the NFC.  Considering that recent 10-win season and divisional round appearance were part of a down year for this team, they've got a pretty dang high ceiling and smooth sailing conditions ahead.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Mike Zimmer continues to work wonders with Minnesota's young defense, and Teddy Bridgewater gets to play the part of 49ers-Alex-Smith with safe mid-range throws and a mean running game.  Minnesota once again sneaks past Green Bay in the divisional standings and gets to host their first playoff game in that new bird-murdering stadium.

Worst Case Scenario: Now on the wrong side of 30, Adrian Peterson starts to slow down, and Bridgewater just doesn't have the athletic chops to run an efficient offense on his own.  These problems are only exacerbated by the sudden retirement of left tackle Phil Loadholt, allowing this offense to get pummeled into a lost five-win season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Vikings have lurked near the top of the NFC in recent years but haven't looked truly dominant since the grizzled but vengeful Brett Favre went off in 2009.  They'll have their best shot at proving they belong in Weeks 2 - 3 with games against the mighty Packers and Panthers.

Prediction: Minnesota is a bit of a wild card right now.  They've crushed the draft in recent years and have a lot of young high-potential talent waiting to break out, but they don't yet have the kind of star power or resume that the other conference heavies do.  Even with a tough schedule ahead, I'll give the Vikings a respectable 9 - 7 teetering on the wild card bubble.


More Season Previews!

Win-Loss Predictions
 

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year
 

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