Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Denver Broncos - Kudos to the schedulers for giving us a bevy of Pro Bowlers ready to pick up right where they left off from SB 50 in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! We know these two defenses and Cam Newton will be good. What we don’t know is much of anything about Trevor Siemian, who will start under center for the Broncos after taking just one snap in his NFL career to date. Given that the Panthers won’t have a lot of game film or Josh Norman patrolling in the secondary, this game could be closer than you might think, but I’ve still got to go with the known quantity in reigning MVP Newton on this one.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6) - At long last, Jimmy Garoppolo fever is officially here! He’ll have his work cut out against former teammate Chandler Jones and friends looking to disrupt the pocket in his first NFL start. But you may recall from 2008 that you shouldn’t count out the Patriots in Tom Brady’s absence, and if they’ve got a chance here, it’ll be because Carson Palmer still has the yips and/or because Tyrann Mathieu is probably playing at less than 100%. Still, I like the Cardinals getting it done at their home opener with all of the upside on this roster.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Washington Redskinks - We’re a little short on Top Shelf games this week, so I’ll let this one slide if only to see how Josh Norman and Antonio Brown square off against each other on Monday night. Plus, it’ll be a proving ground for a Washington team that surprised a lot of people last year with a division title and playoff berth. But as good as the Redskinks looked at times in 2015, remember this when you’re placing your bets: none of those nine wins were against a team with a winning record. So I’m going to assume Washington will prove itself to be a bad good team when the heat kicks up against the Steelers this week.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at New York Jets - This might be a sneaky-good game against two teams with totally reasonable hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC this year. With stout defenses and electrifying receivers on each roster, there’s certainly the chance of highlight reel fodder here. Although I think the Bengals will be the better team come December, Andy Dalton will have to throw to A.J. Green and a bunch of new guys since Tyler Eifert is sitting this one out. And the Jets have a really, really good run defense, so I'm wary about this Cincy offense's prospects in this road opener.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1) - If there’s a candidate for craziest Week 1 shootout worth watching, I think the Raiders and Saints could give us an air show to remember. Amari Cooper will be the latest beneficiary to carve up New Orleans’ atrocious secondary while Drew Brees will probably keep doing Drew Brees things when he gets the ball. If there’s a matchup edge here though, I’m already shuddering to imagine how the Saints’ reshuffled offensive line will fare against Khalil Mack. They just haven’t looked coordinated or competent throughout the offseason, and this is the kind of baptism by fire no line wants in Week 1. Just remember, Khalil, Drew has four kids and about fifty more Jimmy John’s franchises to raise.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - We might have a wild, wild AFC West on our hands this season with four very talented rivals, so a divisional win for one of these teams could go a long way in who gets to play extra football in January. The Chargers will almost certainly be better than they were last year, especially if Melvin Gordon can finally get going in a substantive way. But an early trip to Arrowhead isn’t exactly what the turnaround doctors ordered, so I’m giving the Chiefs the edge.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1) - If there’s a candidate for craziest Week 1 shootout worth watching, I think the Raiders and Saints could give us an air show to remember. Amari Cooper will be the latest beneficiary to carve up New Orleans’ atrocious secondary while Drew Brees will probably keep doing Drew Brees things when he gets the ball. If there’s a matchup edge here though, I’m already shuddering to imagine how the Saints’ reshuffled offensive line will fare against Khalil Mack. They just haven’t looked coordinated or competent throughout the offseason, and this is the kind of baptism by fire no line wants in Week 1. Just remember, Khalil, Drew has four kids and about fifty more Jimmy John’s franchises to raise.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - We might have a wild, wild AFC West on our hands this season with four very talented rivals, so a divisional win for one of these teams could go a long way in who gets to play extra football in January. The Chargers will almost certainly be better than they were last year, especially if Melvin Gordon can finally get going in a substantive way. But an early trip to Arrowhead isn’t exactly what the turnaround doctors ordered, so I’m giving the Chiefs the edge.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - In one of the less intriguing quarterback matchups of note, Tyrod Taylor will return to Baltimore to face off with the guy he used to back up before Buffalo took a chance on him last year. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco will be coming back from an ACL injury with a vastly overhauled receiving corps to work with. But football is football, and these two teams might just come out swinging sloppy after a disappointing 2015 season, so I’m willing to imagine the upside. This feels like a coin flip kind of game, but given that the Ravens don’t seem to know who’s starting at running back or how their new defensive acquisitions will pan out, I like Buffalo’s continuity with a bunch of fun playmakers to boot.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5) - Given that J.J. Watt looks ready to return to the field and that the Bears just won the Josh Sitton sweepstakes to shore up their O-line, this game just got a little more interesting. I think you can make a good case for either team winning this one – the Bears have continued to rebuild their roster in smart ways while Brock Osweiler looks like he might just work out if the preseason was any indicator. So I’m going to go with my hunch that the Texans' defensive prospects are better at this point in the year, especially with Watt on the field.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This blog post should have its own plaque because this may in fact be the first time the Jaguars have made it out of the House Punch tier. Blake Bortles is king for a day. Of course you already know that I’m not actually going to pick Jacksonville over Green Bay here, but look at that single-digit point spread! This may no longer be the least competent team in the league, even in all-but-assured defeat.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) - Similar to my Saints/Raiders spiel above, keep an eye on how the Colts’ offensive line holds up against Ziggy Ansah and the rest of Detroit’s very good defensive front. This may not be a cakewalk for Andrew Luck’s first start in ten months. But if you’re asking me to choose between Luck at home or Matthew Stafford on the road in the fourth quarter, it’s still a no-brainer.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5) - Given that J.J. Watt looks ready to return to the field and that the Bears just won the Josh Sitton sweepstakes to shore up their O-line, this game just got a little more interesting. I think you can make a good case for either team winning this one – the Bears have continued to rebuild their roster in smart ways while Brock Osweiler looks like he might just work out if the preseason was any indicator. So I’m going to go with my hunch that the Texans' defensive prospects are better at this point in the year, especially with Watt on the field.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This blog post should have its own plaque because this may in fact be the first time the Jaguars have made it out of the House Punch tier. Blake Bortles is king for a day. Of course you already know that I’m not actually going to pick Jacksonville over Green Bay here, but look at that single-digit point spread! This may no longer be the least competent team in the league, even in all-but-assured defeat.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) - Similar to my Saints/Raiders spiel above, keep an eye on how the Colts’ offensive line holds up against Ziggy Ansah and the rest of Detroit’s very good defensive front. This may not be a cakewalk for Andrew Luck’s first start in ten months. But if you’re asking me to choose between Luck at home or Matthew Stafford on the road in the fourth quarter, it’s still a no-brainer.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Tampa Bay at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Although no one outside of the NFC South will be paying much attention to these teams at this point, this game is a good gut check to see whether Jameis Winston will continue to ascend in his second year and which version of the Falcons we might expect this time around. I’m going to guess Atlanta shows its better face on opening day while new Bucs coach Dirk Koetter works out the kinks in his play-calling.
Minnesota Vikings (-2) at Tennessee Titans - I am genuinely bummed for Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings this season. For all of the bad news of this previous week including Minnesota’s incomprehensible trade for Sam Bradford, the good news is that they still have a very impressive defensive roster and the best running back on the field today. Plus, they get to face Mike Mularkey’s Titans in Week 1, and I think these hobbled Vikings can still overcome that Tennessee molehill fairly easily. #famouslastwords
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) - Speaking of, how happy are Eagles fans to be freed of the hapless shackles of Sam Bradford?! Given Bradford’s exit, expect things to get pretty weird here with two new head coaches and two new quarterbacks trying to find their footing. I have no clue what to think of this game, so when in doubt, don’t pick the Browns.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Oy vey. There’s a reason this game won’t start until 10:30pm eastern time on Monday night. Don’t trouble yourself too much with staying up for the quarterback battle of the
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 1, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Giants -1 over Cowboys
- Patriots +6 over Cardinals
- Packers -5.5 over Jaguars
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