Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - We get to see a rare cross-state rumble between two yet-to-be defeated teams for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! That Carson Wentz sure is turning heads with that gritty North Dakotan arm in his first two NFL starts - in fact, he's the first rookie quarterback in 46 (!) years to win his first two games with no interceptions. I'm rooting for the kid, if only to continue to embarrass the Rams and Browns for passing up on him. BUT let this be your PSA that the Eagles have only played perhaps the two very worst teams in the league so far, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves just yet. I think Wentz is plenty-good, but I'm not sure the Eagles (or most other teams) have the chops to outdo the high-flying Steelers at the moment.
Houston Texans (-1) at New England Patriots - Welp, the Jimmy Garoppolo era was a blast. We probably won't see him again until he's getting buried in the turf under center in Cleveland next year. Instead, we get to see third-stringer and 91st pick of 2016 Jacoby Brissett live out a Disney sports movie plotline and get his first NFL start against the ferocious Houston defense while Tom Brady looms in the rafters. If there's any team that will figure this thing out and win anyway, it'll be the Patriots. But the Texans have looked like the real deal all eight quarters so far this season, and that defense will get better and better as J.J. Watt gets back to form. If they can keep LeGarrette Blount near the line of scrimmage and force Brissett to make quick decisions with almost zero practice reps, I think they can pull off a rare road win in Foxborough.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - This has the makings of an old-school defensive showcase between two eventual playoff contenders. And what a tough game to nail down at that. The Bengals haven't been great at stopping the run so far, which is the foundation of the Broncos' offense, but I think they can keep that "poised" Trevor Siemian on edge and force a couple crucial turnovers. And though the Broncos defense is assuredly going to notch some sacks and have a good game plan for A.J. Green, they won't have DeMarcus Ware this week, which I think will give Andy Dalton just enough time in the pocket to keep his offense on track.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7) - A mighty defense will meet one of the hardest offenses to topple when they're at home. This could be a sneaky-good game if the Vikings are able to disrupt the pocket and keep Cam Newton's scrambling ways in check in the same way they did with Aaron Rodgers in prime time last week. And if Cris Collinsworth is to be believed, Sam Bradford is the second coming under center in Minnesota, so who needs Adrian Peterson anyway? I can talk myself into scenarios where both of these teams could win, which usually ends poorly for me. So let's jinx the Panthers out of a conference win so that the dumb Saints still have a chance this season.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) - Somehow, this game is no longer that bad of a prospect to watch. The Raiders' defense appears to be bad enough to give the Titans' offense a chance, and the Titans will probably do some dumb things to keep the Raiders in it through four quarters. When all is said and done, I have to think Jack Del Rio is going to start making some defensive adjustments that will work for this Oakland team with a lot of talent. And if there's an offensive line that can give you a boost of confidence, Tennessee's is a good place to start.
Washington Redskinks at New York Giants (-4.5) - You watch. Just when we think we've figured out that the Redskinks have totally collapsed and the Giants have totally turned the corner, they are almost guaranteed to confuse the hell out of all of us and do the opposite. I am so close to picking Washington for that existential truth alone, but Kirk Cousins has just looked too shaky for me to take a chance. I say Big Blue starts separating itself in earnest from the rest of the division at 3 - 0 with another week of strong defensive play and a reliable passing game.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - I gotta say, one of the story lines that continues to perplex me is how uneven the Packers' offense has looked. I thought for sure their woes last year had almost everything to do with Jordy Nelson being out of pocket and Aaron Rodgers playing hurt, but present performance would suggest otherwise. Making matters worse, the Lions won't be coming into this game as scared and hopeless as they used to after finally winning in Lambeau last year and coming within a Hail Mary of sweeping the Packers altogether. I think it'll be a close one, but it's hard to bet against the Packers at home following a loss.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - Picking against the Chiefs at home is risky business, but they just haven't looked that solid so far outside of one crazy comeback in the second half in Week 1. And the Jets might just be their kryptonite given how good Gang Green is against the run. If they can hold West and Ware in check and force Alex Smith to put up 35+ pass attempts, they should have KC firmly in their control. But they'll probably blow it.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - I can't fault Indy for having a sub-par game at Mile High against a defense that looks just as good as it did in February, but this definitely still looks like a team that hasn't figured out how to hang consistently with the better teams in the conference. And given that the Colts have allowed 36 points per game while the Chargers are putting up 32, San Diego will be an even taller task for another week with Indy's short-handed secondary.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - The Cowboys might just be able to hold down the fort until Tony Romo returns after all. They aren't lighting the world on fire on either side of the ball, but they've kept their games in reach so far with good execution on most corners of the roster. Flip that statement around to the exact opposite, and you have this year's Chicago Bears - and that was before Lamarr Houston and Danny Travathan got injured.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Sunday marks ten years since Steve Gleason blocked that punt against the Falcons in the Saints' iconic return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. So get ready for lots of soft-focus montages on Monday Night Football when these hated rivals get together for their first meeting this season. I've gotten to a place of Sunday zen so far this season by assuming (rightly) that New Orleans is going to lose a lot of games. But this one's just too weighty against too loathed of an opponent to leave to stoics and practicalities. Who Dat!
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Buffalo Bills - Forget the lake effect - all of those seats are pretty darn hot in Buffalo. And I don't think Greg Roman was the problem when the Ryan brothers have been calling the shots on a defense that has gotten progressively worse these past two years. The Cardinals are just too good to beat when one's team is remotely discombobulated, and the Bills look like that and much worse right now.
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Le sigh. I think I jumped on the Jaguars hype train a little too quickly. If they can drag this one into a shootout, they've still got a decent chance to win against a Ravens team that has struggled against AFC lowlifes like the Bills and Browns so far this season. But the Jaguars tend to be the Jaguars, so there's my analysis.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-9.5) - After the Dolphins' death march to Seattle and Foxborough, this should be a nice soft landing with puppies and unicorns bounding through the meadows for a home opener.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) - After going on an absolute tear in the latter half of 2015, the Seahawks' offense has been nonexistent. One touchdown in two weeks and 7.5 points per game to be precise. So this game could be downright ugly and low-scoring since the 'Hawks defense will most certainly hold up its end of the bargain, but it feels fluky to me. I think Seattle turns it around against a Niners team that hasn't been a serious threat since 2013.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) - It's hard to say where these two roller coaster teams will meet this week after alternatingly impressive wins and awful losses. I wouldn't totally count the Rams out if they can put the heat on Jameis Winston in the pocket like they did with Russell Wilson last week, but a lot more things have to go right for the Rams to put points on the board. So Bucs, I reckon.
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 3, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Steelers -3.5 over Eagles
- Lions +7.5 over Packers
- Cardinals -4 over Bills
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 18 - 14
Against the Spread: 2 - 4
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