NFL Week 4 Recap and Teams I'm Buying and Selling

Several obscenities later, I have reached a zen-like state where I no longer expect my team to do great things this season.  It's okay, really.  The way the NFC South is playing, there's still a silly chance that the Saints can take the division, but it no longer concerns me.  Clearly, it's someone else's year, so I can enjoy the little wins here and there and work on picking a B-Team in January.  Expectations have been sufficiently lowered.  Anyway, onward and upward with this Week 4 recap and a little stock take on Teams to Buy and Sell this season.  I'll give ya a hint, you might sell the Saints.

Week 4: The Good Stuff

Teddy, Teddy! - Sure, it's just the Falcons' defense, but Teddy Bridgewater looked more than pro-ready in his first full start in Minnesota today.  He got some major help from new, cuddlier AP Matt Asiata, but he also played fearlessly with some big-time plays downfield to the tune of over 10 yards per attempt.  I hope I don't jinx the guy as I seem to do to most teams and people I like these days, but isn't it about time the Vikings made things interesting at QB again? It'd be poetic justice for all the fuss over Johnny Manziel for the last 500 days or so.

That Old-Fashioned 49ers' Defense - Things looked rough for San Francisco in the early going against the Eagles on Sunday, but you sure couldn't blame any of it on the defense.  They were punishing from start to finish, especially for Nick Foles who was sacked four times, intercepted twice and held to less than 200 yards on the day.  For the second straight week, LeSean McCoy might as well be in witness protection.  It says something when your offense and special teams give up 21 points and you can still win fairly comfortably, especially with all of the wear-and-tear the Niners have experienced.  Don't count them out this year just yet.

The Giants?  The Giants. - Here's to a team I can absolutely never figure out.  Just when Eli looks befuddlingly down for the count, he drops four TDs on a Washington team that might have had a real upper hand on a short week.  Manning looked like a deer in the headlights trying out new OC Ben McAdoo's system in Detroit during Week 1, but less than a month later, he's playing like he's known this system forever.  The Giants' defense deserves a ton of credit too, notching six turnovers against suddenly hapless Kirk Cousins and friends.  So maybe they're the real deal until they're not next week.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 4 Prediction - I was very tempted to pick the Eagles over the 49ers this week given the way these two teams have played until now.  Thankfully, I played it safe the one time that has paid off:

• It's very tempting to assume [the Eagles' wins and 49ers' losses] will continue, but you gotta believe luck tends to run out at some point - good and bad - and I think the Niners will get back to basics in their slow, physical style of play this time.

Week 4: The Bad Stuff

The Saints.  All of Them - I don't want to talk about it.

The Steelers' Last-Minute Implosion - Woe to Pittsburgh fans - I actually saw this one in real time, and it was karazee.  In case you missed it, the Steelers were winning by 4 points with less than a minute to go.  The Buccaneers were out of timeouts.  All Pittsburgh had to do was punt it away and prevent the big play.  Fail and fail.  The punt was shanked and then the Bucs rattled off a 41-yard play in a matter of seconds, setting up Mike Glennon-to-Vincent Jackson on an unbelievable game-clinching gut punch to Steelers nation.  I don't even like those guys and this hurt to watch.  On the flipside though, kudos to the Buccaneers for gutting out an unbelievable win after being totally embarrassed on Thursday Night Football less than two weeks ago.  It would have been much easier to hang a head in that final minute than try to make something out of it.

The Patriots' Bargain-Bin Roster - If Sunday night's shellacking wasn't enough for you, the Chiefs practically eviscerated a Patriots' team that hasn't looked this bad in a very long time on Monday night.  Like the Saints, it's hard to pinpoint one thing the Pats are struggling with - the defense was out of step and missing tackles, Tom Brady was constantly under pressure and ultimately reduced to throwing wounded ducks into triple coverage.  And there were all the turnovers, which are always hard to predict.  Methinks New England's front office has finally spread its talent too thin.  With the departures of Wes Welker, LaGarrette Blount, Aquib Talib, and Logan Mankins among others in the past couple of years, the Patriots have somehow created an even worse collection of spare parts this time around than they had last season.  That's no way to treat a Hall of Fame QB on his way to aging out, and it may have cost this team greatly in 2014.

Shanked It! My Worst Week 4 Prediction - Did you know I wrote this on Opposite Day?

• Seeing as how Eli Manning already blew all of his good play on the Texans last week, it seems safe to assume he's going to be back to his old incompetent antics in DC tonight.  This still has the makings of a close and fun-sloppy game, but Kirk Cousins walks in as the more reliable quarterback.

Week 4 Feature: Teams I'm Buying and Selling

Now that the preseason smoke has sufficiently cleared and every team has faced the good, the bad and the ugly, it's time to update our theoretical stocks.  

Teams I'm Buying:

• New York Giants - What a difference a couple of weeks can make.  As I mentioned above, Eli Manning is starting to look more at home in his new offensive ecosystem, and it helps that he finally has some running backs and receivers to help carry the load.  Knowing the Giants' cycle of competence/incompetence, this is technically their year again, and considering the lucky bounces the Eagles have had to stay on top to this point, the Giants may be a worthy NFC East contender.
• Detroit Lions - Given that I put the Lions at 6 - 10 this season, all I can do is buy with Detroit - they're sitting at the top of the division with an incredibly balanced roster that looks right up there with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Heck, the whole North is a monster with the Vikings showing real signs of life on offense post-Adrian Peterson.  If Detroit's defense continues to play this way though, I'm no longer that concerned with these guys having to outgun Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler.
• Houston Texans - I'll continue to be wary about the Texans as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is trusted to do things, but by Kanye if these guys still don't win a ton of games because of that defense.  Case and point - J.J. Watt hauling in an 80-yard interception to ice the Bills in the third quarter (who would have otherwise won, by the way).  In a place as unstable as the AFC, even the Texans coming off a 2 - 14 disaster in 2013 have a chance.

 Teams I'm Selling:

• New Orleans Saints - Yes.  I jinxed this team by projecting them at 12 - 4 and an NFC Championship appearance this season.  Last year's defense was just too good to be true, and the Saints have lived up to every stereotype of being awful on the road, which means they could easily go 8 - 8 this year.  Heck, they've gone 8 - 8 in their past 16 games.  The NFC South is looking bad enough that New Orleans might still have a shot at something more than they deserve, but I ain't buying it.  See? Zen.
• Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have been a rollercoaster ride to be sure this year, but they are in real trouble on their offensive line already this season.  By the end of Sunday's game in Minnesota, Atlanta was down to its tight end (whose name is not even worth Googling to spell right now) playing right guard.  The defense has struggled against everyone but the Buccaneers so far this season. That all points to Matt Ryan having to be very one-dimensional like last year--and scoring major points for the yet-to-be-defeated Lady Blitz fantasy team.
• Buffalo Bills - I jumped too late onto the "buy" train for these guys, and now it's time to jump right back off, even if the train hasn't come to a complete stop yet.  To give some credit, the Bills' defense hasn't missed a step with Mike Pettine and Jairus Byrd skipping town and Kiko Alonso out for the season.  But it's just not enough to carry E.J. Manuel forward 3 weeks out of 4.  He's pretty rough away from home too.  And Kyle Orton ain't the answer.

Teams I'm Holding:

• Dallas Cowboys - Are the Cowboys for real?  It's still hard to say at this point given that the opponents they've beaten this season (Titans, Rams, Saints) may just be really bad.  For the millionth time in recent years, the NFC East looks like it's set up for another Week 17 photo finish, and the Giants and Eagles bring their own formidable strengths to the table.  If Dallas can play the way they did this week against, say, the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals coming up, I might just buy 'em.
• New England Patriots - There's no denying last night was ugly for the Pats.  It's fair to say this team's offense is at an all-time low in the Tom Brady era with question marks all over the roster.  BUT when you look at the rest of the division and the AFC, New England can afford a slower start than some teams and hasn't been afraid to dabble in mid-season trades in the past.  The Patriots were able to do something with nothing last year, so who's to say they can't turn things around with Brady and Belichick by December?  If so, I might not sell 'em.

Week 4 Picks for Every NFL Game

Ah, the smell of progress.  Week 3 was the first time I got past 0.500 on my picks, but I will totally jinx myself into oblivion by saying the machine got smarter.  It certainly won't be so cavalier about the Bills or the Dolphins anyway.  With that in mind, let's see where I overthink it again in Week 4:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears - Welp, this Lady Blitz Game of the Week just got a whole lot more real in the heated early battle for the NFC North.  Both Green Bay and Chicago are struggling with significant injuries and certainly haven't hit their peak performance for 2014 yet.  I'm very tempted to pick the Bears due to their solid balance thus far, but after Monday night, they're looking mighty thin in the secondary at a moment when Aaron Rodgers could not be more eager to air it out like the old days.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - It's a shame Steve Smith won't be able to give Carolina the kind of homecoming DeSean Jackson gave his former team in Philly last weekend, but my guess is he's ready for a big game.  Human interest isn't exactly the best reason to pick a team, but Baltimore's defense poses a tough matchup for that Panthers' offensive line that nearly allowed the Steelers to turn Cam Newton into catfood last week. 

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) - What a yin and yang these teams bring to the table this weekend.  The Eagles are this year's comeback kids with all wins coming after early 10+ point deficits.  On the other side, the 49ers have suffered some ugly fourth-quarter lapses of late.  They're looking pretty sluggish at the line of scrimmage after player turnover, suspensions and holdouts in the case of Alex Boone.  It's very tempting to assume those trends will continue, but you gotta believe luck tends to run out at some point - good and bad - and I think the Niners will get back to basics in their slow, physical style of play this time.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys - Lawdy.  This is a scary game for this Saints fan.  Drew Brees should have a field day with that Dallas defense, but Tony Romo could say the same thing about New Orleans so far this season.  I think we're in for a wild shootout where it may well come down to who gets the ball last. But if these teams last few meetings in prime time is any indicator, this is still the Saints' game to lose.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-3.5) - Seeing as how Eli Manning already blew all of his good play on the Texans last week, it seems safe to assume he's going to be back to his old incompetent antics in DC tonight.  This still has the makings of a close and fun-sloppy game, but Kirk Cousins walks in as the more reliable quarterback.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3) - Given last season, it's crazy to think one of these two teams could end up in the playoffs this year after a pretty strong early showing.  It probably won't make a ton of headlines, but this should be a solid game given these teams' similar styles and strengths.  Because I am a glutton for punishment, I'm going to give the Bills another shot after the Texans struggled so surprisingly against the run in New York last week.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) - Seeing as how the Colts have been a bit shaky outside of their JV game in Jacksonville, this may be a better game than you might think.  But if the question still comes down to Andrew Luck v. Jake Locker with two questionable secondaries, the answer is clear.

Detroit Lions (-1.5) at New York Jets - Hard to fathom, but these are two of the top three defenses in the NFL so far this season.  Between the Jets' punishing rush attack and the Lions' army of skilled talent, someone's bound to be exposed.  And unless Detroit turns the ball over like they did in Carolina, the Lions have the edge.

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are down but not out yet and the Patriots are playing the insipid way of the Packers right now, so I've got this one on my upset radar along with several others I'm too chicken to go against the favorite on (Eagles, Cowboys, Jets).  But sooner or later, the sleeping giant in Tom Brady will awake and feed Gronk for real.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Miami Dolphins (-4) at Oakland Raiders - If Ryan Tannehill needs a little self-esteem, the Raiders' secondary has just the cure.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) - Like the Raiders, the Buccaneers are eternally relegated to the House Punch bowl until any sign of life says otherwise.  Pittsburgh should continue to roll in hopes of catching the mighty Bengals.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13) - I've decided to be nice to the Jaguars and stop making jokes about opposing teams getting a second bye week.  That doesn't mean I won't be thinking it though.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Minnesota Vikings - No time like the present for Teddy Bridgewater to have a breakout game!  But keeping pace with Matt Ryan is a tall task for any rookie.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 25 - 23

Week 3 NFL Recap

Ah, that's better.  Even though the Saints are 1 - 2, they're just a game back from nearly everyone important in the NFC.  The league of parity continued to level-set this weekend and now there are only three 3 - 0 and three 0 - 3 teams left.  That gives us plenty to write home about in this Week 3 recap.

Week 3: The Good Stuff

The Super Bowl Rematch We Deserved - A cynical Broncos fan might point out that the result was the same either way, but for the rest of us, what a way for Seattle and Denver to atone for one of the most boring Super Bowls in the last decade.  It had it all - bruising ground and pound on the Seahawks' part, a furious no-huddle comeback from Peyton Manning with an 80-yard march and 2-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the 4th quarter.  Overtime.  Love in the air.  Oh what I'd give to have a game like that in February, but September will still do just fine.

Devin Hester, Swiss Army Knife - I don't consider this total treachery since he will probably retire a Bear someday, but how about the Falcons' Devin Hester on Thursday night?  It's surprising looking back at the stats that he only had two touches on offense during Atlanta's merciless rout of the Buccaneers, because by Kanye if he didn't seem to be everywhere all the time.  In a mere 60 minutes, No. 17 racked up one of those typical punt returns for a touchdown, a beautiful 20-yard sweep into the endzone, and a rare offensive fumble return.  And you won't see it on a highlight reel, but dude's a pretty solid chip blocker too, making Atlanta's offense look way more 2012 than 2013.

Pittsburgh's Ground Game - I'll admit it.  I didn't think Pittsburgh had a prayer against Carolina on Sunday night given the way both teams have played so far this year.  You can chalk some of it up to the Panthers' thin receiving corps/offensive line, as "experts" like myself have tried to corner them into for the last six months.  Cam Newton was certainly worse for the wear at the end of the day.  But the biggest key to the Steelers' success had to be their surprisingly potent run game against one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL today.  Le'Veon Bell and LaGarrette Blount of "Up in Smoke" fame dropped over 250 rushing yards on a vicious front seven and never looked back.  I lean toward the Panthers having a bad night more than the Steelers breaking out for good, but that's just the kind of win Pittsburgh needs to face divisional foe Cincinnati with legit confidence.

Nailed It! My Best Week 3 Prediction: Hey, I might finally get past 0.500 for a change!  It wasn't exactly rocket science, but it turns out the Buccaneers' defense may just be this bad:

• "If the allegedly vaunted defense of the Bucs couldn't stop two guys I wouldn't be able to recognize in a bar at knifepoint, I think they're going to have a real hard time with Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome."

Week 3: The Bad Stuff

A Buccaneer Blowout of Epic Proportions - Tempting as it is to do, I don't totally mean to discredit the Falcons for Thursday's 56 - 14 trouncing of the Buccaneers.  Atlanta's offense is humming and the defense and special teams answered the door when opportunities knocked... over and over.  But it takes a special kind of awful to go down 35 - 0 roughly 20 minutes into a ball game.  It all felt like an especially excruciating episode of Breaking Madden where the QB might as well run backwards into the other team's endzone on every snap.  I read at least 3 - 4 recaps that chose the word "hapless" to describe the Bucs, and that may have been generous.  Josh McCown looks utterly lost without the kind of supporting cast the Bears were able to provide last year.  Poor Lovie Smith looks ready to--please indulge me here, I am tired--walk the plank right out of town before the rest of his defense can even get healthy again.  I guess I can't blame him as Tampa fans brace themselves for another lost season.

Whatever's Wrong with Aaron Rodgers - If you'd told me in August that the Packers, 49ers, Saints and Colts would all go 1 - 2 to start the season, I'd laugh and then ask you to share your meds with the rest of us.  The Colts get a little grace from a tough schedule while the 49ers and Saints have had some bad bounces in the fourth quarter, but Green Bay has started out a shell of its former self in 2014, especially on offense.  The Packers are plagued with injuries as they seem to be every year, but the lack of production from Aaron Rodgers in particular is stunning - as in 28th out of 32 teams in passing yards/Joe Flacco has you beat by a long shot.  He looked totally out of sync Sunday against a Detroit team he usually has zero problem with, missing textbook passes and seeing ghosts in the pocket.  The Packers seem to start things out this way most years and then come back gliding on a unicorn, so it may not be cause for panic yet, but with the Bears and Lions playing like contenders so far, Green Bay won't get the kind of cushion they're used to this time around.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 3 Prediction - D'oh!  Sorry for jinxing your team, Jonathan.  Somehow the Chargers made it look easy against the Bills on Sunday despite wringing just two yards per carry from third-string running back Donald Brown.  Why do I even try to pick these games?

• "I may come to regret this because I was thisclose to picking the Chargers, but given that they lost Ryan Mathews, have an early East Coast game, and will surely disappoint after a massive win against the Seahawks, this year's Bills might just take advantage."
  

Week 3 Picks for Every NFL Game

What goes down must come up, right?  Right?!  Here's hoping for a better Week 3 slate of picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5) - America deserves a Super Bowl rematch that's better than the actual Super Bowl was with our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  I'd be stunned if the Broncos experience the same point deficit that they did last February, but the ear-numbing environs of CenturyLink Field don't bode well for Peyton Manning's audibles.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - Who would've thought amidst the home crowd boos in the preseason that the Buffalo Bills would ever make it to the Top Shelf whilst leading the AFC East?  I hope for reader Jonathan's sake that they do in fact shock the world this year - it would be poetic justice after years of misery under Ralph Wilson, may he rest in peace. I may come to regret this because I was thisclose to picking the Chargers, but given that they lost Ryan Mathews, have an early East Coast game, and will surely disappoint after a massive win against the Seahawks, this year's Bills might just take advantage.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-1) - I don't know what to think of these two teams yet, but with the NFC North very much up for grabs, Packers-v.-Lions makes a rare Top Shelf appearance.  The edge in this game may just be defense given two strong-armed QBs and their arsenals of playmakers who suffered from slow starts last weekend.  But when in doubt, just go with Aaron Rodgers.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals - Did anyone else catch that the Cardinals are the only team in the mighty NFC West with a 2 - 0 record?  That Arizona defense in particular is as tough as ever, but when I looked at Colin Kaepernick's career stats against them, he's actually pretty darn good.  The Niners will be looking to rebound this week, especially since they haven't lost a big step against Seattle yet, so I think they find a way with a solid rushing effort and a late opportune turnover.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - Can Lovie still right the pirate ship after two disappointing weeks against backup QBs Derek Anderson and Austin Davis?  That'd be awesome from this Saints fan's standpoint.  But if the allegedly vaunted defense of the Bucs couldn't stop two guys I wouldn't be able to recognize in a bar at knifepoint, I think they're going to have a real hard time with Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - Here's another divisional matchup that probably won't be quite as good as it should be.  Kirk Cousins will have yet another chance to shop around his wares for teams with lesser starters.  He may shock the world and/or hand it off to Alfred Morris 25 times, but it probably won't be enough to stop the Eagles' offensive juggernaut.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) - Welp, I've already totally underestimated the Bengals this season.  Of course as soon as I start saying that, they usually find a way to disappoint, but luckily Cincinnati's defense should do more than enough against the Titans to keep pressure off of Andy Dalton.

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns - Give the Browns a ton of credit, they've proven that they've got plenty of fight in them this season and most certainly have survived without Trent Richardson on offense.  To pile it on, the Ravens usually find a way to prove me wrong, but I'm picking them anyway after a strong, balanced win against the Steelers last week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - I have no idea what to think of this game.  Both teams' leading rusher is injured and both teams tend to implode when the QB is under pressure, which is likely given both teams' pass rush.  I'll be rooting Chiefs but assuming 'Fins.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - As much as I would love for the Panthers to lose this game, they look like they are doing just fine without Greg Hardy.  That should be more than enough to keep Big Ben & co. in check for 60 minutes.

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-3) - I like this matchup, I really do.  The Bears and Jets have been somewhat surprising this season, mostly in a good way (minus Jay Cutler in Week 1).  They have certainly played fearlessly anyway.  If there's one thing that the Bears should be mighty scared about, it's the Jets' merciless run defense.  But if Cutler can keep them on their heels with a health[ier] receiving corps, Chicago is the better team, at least on paper.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at St. Louis Rams - The Cowboys could totally blow this game, but another healthy week for DeMarco Murray could really spread the Rams' defense and force QB Austin Davis to play a risky brand of catchup.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants - It's hard to say at this point how good the Texans really are given the gift-wrapped early schedule, but the Giants are the gift that keeps on giving to competent defenses everywhere.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) - When's the last time an 0 - 2 team was nearly a 10-point favorite? Hard to say, but between Adrian Peterson finally getting grounded and the Saints returning to the comfort of their own dome, please for the love of Kanye, Patrick Robinson, don't ruin this for the rest of us.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Remember how I picked the Jaguars to win last week?  That was funny.

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-14.5) - Here's an idea: What if Bill Belichick and Charles Woodson go out for a good scowl after the Patriots destroy the hapless Raiders on Sunday?  Woodson's just the kind of veteran DB Belichick could turn into a one-last-shot comeback after two miserable years in Oakland.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 9
Season Record: 15 - 17

Week 2 Recap and the Thinnest of Silver Linings From the NFL's Worst Week Ever

Good gravy. Just when things couldn't get worse for just about everyone who isn't the Buffalo Bills, etc., the NFL just had what has rightfully been dubbed the worst week in its ninety-year history.  I don't have a lot left in the tank at the moment between a brutal stretch at work and my own team's unexpected woes, but here are a few things to chew on from Week 2 including the Thinnest of Silver Linings From the NFL's Worst Week Ever.

Week 2: The Good Stuff

Philip Rivers' Guts - For just about every reason possible, this was a "nothing's sacred" kind of weekend in the NFL where the metaphorical/literal football titans of old fell and the scrappy underdogs emerged in many games.  Kudos to Philip Rivers for putting his money where his mouth is with no less than 3 TDs against the Legion of Boom.  He had the guts to go after a certain chatty but spectacularly talented cornerback and make it to the other side without an interception.  The Seahawks will do just fine this season, but the rest of us have San Diego to thank for making Seattle look at least momentarily human.

Parity - If there's just one reason I haven't already given up on the Saints going anywhere this season, it's that I'm supremely thankful that so many other esteemed teams have already lost this year.  It's been murder on my win-loss predictions, but if there's one thing I still enjoy about the modern game, it's that any given Sunday means just that.  We're already down to just seven teams (roughly 20%!) that are going into Week 3 undefeated with surprising wins by the Bills, Browns, Chargers and Bears and a whole 'nother slew of heroic plays by the backups and no-names a la Drew Stanton and Austin Davis.  Will some of these surges sputter later in the season?  No doubt, but we're primed for a January surprise or two - that's more than you can say for the MLB or NBA by a long shot.

Nailed It! My Best Week 2 Prediction: Although the final outcome is the same, I'm actually feeling better about my picks this week, namely in going against the grain with the Cowboys over the Titans.  Proof that Week 1 was not all that it seemed:

• "I don't think the Titans are as good as they looked last week, and I don't think the Cowboys are quite as bad.  If there's one guy who has superb short-term memory loss, it's Tony Romo."

Week 2: The Bad Stuff

A Kaepernick-plosion - I've come to expect every two weeks or so that I will go to bed before the Sunday or Monday night game, outcome firmly in hand, and wake up to something completely different.  The Cardinals came back to haunt the Chargers last week and then the Bears crashed the 49ers' new stadium party in the 4th quarter this time around.  As much as I hate to say it, Jay Cutler deserves a lot of credit for three late touchdown drives, but he also got some serious help from Colin Kaepernick's two consecutive interceptions and four total turnovers on the day.  In the midst of much more awful player sins, I guess I can't blame the guy for whatever that "inappropriate language" penalty was about, especially in a game featuring 26 total flags.  It probably didn't compare to what 49ers fans were saying in that Santa Clara traffic jam afterwards.

My Total Denial About the New Orleans Saints - I don't know what you're talking about, but there are probably dumpsters on wheels that are more effective shutdown corners than Patrick Robinson.  And is Rob Ryan the real Steve Spagnuolo or is Steve Spagnuolo the real Rob Ryan?

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 2 Prediction - Yet again, so many to choose from.  I don't even regret some of them like the Vikings over the Pats given what a terrible person Adrian Peterson turned out to be.  Instead, I'm flattered that Philip Rivers thought enough of my blog to read it thoroughly and then apparently sell his soul to Satan to prove me wrong on Sunday:

• "Philip Rivers often plays with no fear, and he'll need that approach--and some great plays by those receivers--to get past the defending champs.  I look forward to watching Seattle utterly terrorize him instead."
  

Week 2 Feature: The Thinnest of Silver Linings from the NFL's Worst Week Ever

Last week, I took a detour from my usual game-focused ramblings to talk about domestic violence in the wake of the Ray Rice scandal and similar but less publicized incidents with Greg Hardy and Ray McDonald.  It was by far the most hits I've had on a blog post since the Super Bowl, and I hope that is indicative of a major change in public response to domestic violence in the NFL and elsewhere in society.

It's an absolute shame that the league and these franchises had to be embarrassed publicly before taking any legitimate action against the players in question.  But there can be no doubt that social pressure led to Ray Rice's indefinite suspension and the Panthers deciding to bench Greg Hardy on Sunday.  Add to that Radisson's pulling sponsorship from the Vikings, who have taken a totally hands-off approach against Adrian Peterson's apparent child abuse - a situation that reads as even less ambiguous than that of Rice.

It's still not enough - we cannot become complacent with a handful of "statement" suspensions when players like Ray McDonald and now Peterson continue to play under the guise of due process, especially when it is clear that these organizations have the power if not the will to gather the facts on their own.  But there are now new ripples because the public is not looking away like it used to.  And if the NBA has been any guide with Donald Sterling's recent ouster, once sponsors start to walk, this becomes a whole new ball game.

Sex, Violence and the NFL: Three Thoughts

As promised, I have spent some time sorting through the melee that is Ray Rice's assault case and how the NFL has decided to deal with this, and many, many other player incidents over the years and now.  Here are some thoughts:

1) The Video Controversy Is A Smokescreen.
I feel completely confident that the NFL is relieved that so many people (and media outlets) have spent an inordinate amount of time speculating on whether or not Roger Goodell actually saw footage of Ray Rice cold-cocking his wife before this week.  It's exactly the kind of thing an organization this cowardly and arrogant would want - to deflect blame by supposing that the video makes any difference at all in how the league should have acted otherwise when the Rice incident first came to light in February.  Admittedly, I was stunned at the firestorm that reignited this week because, in reality, it only confirmed more graphically what we all already knew about what Ray Rice did to his wife.  We already knew that he hit her so hard that he knocked her unconscious and dragged her out of an elevator, that he admitted this months ago, that his wife apologized for the incident (as reinforced perplexingly by the Ravens PR team), and that Roger Goodell felt that this was worthy of a 2-game suspension, which many have pointed out is far more lenient than for many players who have been caught using recreational drugs.  Somehow that is all suddenly supposed to be justifiable from the league's standpoint because you, John/Jane Q. Public, saw something disgusting that the NFL could have responded to swiftly and differently with or without video a long time ago. The Onion nailed this issue today with the headline, "NFL Announces New Zero-Tolerance Policy on Videotaped Domestic Violence."  To act as though this new development somehow gives Roger Goodell a mulligan on dealing sufficient punishment to Ray Rice is to suggest that only the most graphic, impeccably documented incidents of domestic violence actually matter, which brings me to:

2) This Is Much Bigger Than Ray Rice or the NFL
If I'm being completely cynical, it's all too likely that things will go right back to the status quo in the NFL once this particular incident blows over.  After all, Ray Rice may never play another snap, and Roger Goodell has made his [retroactive] "statement."  But there have been and will always be too many violent, abusive acts within and outside of professional sports, the vast majority of which will not come with video evidence, substantial media attention or external pressure to bring justice to the women--and men--who have suffered.  You need look no further than Greg Hardy of the Carolina Panthers who was found guilty this summer of assaulting his girlfriend, threatening to kill her, and shoving her onto a couch piled with guns.  He played last Sunday, has appealed his case until January, and incidentally got paid $13 million via the Panthers' franchise tag this season.  Or Ray McDonald of the San Francisco 49ers who was arrested just days after the NFL enacted a new domestic violence policy for assaulting his pregnant girlfriend, leaving bruises on her neck and arms.  He played on Sunday too while several defensive teammates were benched with injuries and suspensions even as a radio broadcaster for San Francisco got suspended for insensitive remarks about Janay Rice.  Lest we forget that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was actually granted a reduced suspension by Roger Goodell a few years ago after not one but two deeply disturbing allegations of sexual assault.  My point is that we know the gut-wrenching details of these and many more incidents inside and outside the NFL, yet we've chosen to turn a blind eye.  The league appears to have no problem dragging its feet yet again with Hardy and with McDonald, and yet there isn't nearly the sense of public moral outrage for what they've done or the lack of serious consequences.  Had Ray Rice--and the league--not gotten caught, there can be no doubt he would have played last week too as so many have before.  Situations of public embarrassment cannot be the only time this issue matters, and our default position cannot continue to be that those being victimized aren't credible except in the most egregious, public circumstances - We have to decide as a society that when we say we don't tolerate violence against women, we actually don't.  And that we validate women's experiences with violence as being real and see the responsibility within ourselves to condemn these acts and demand justice always.  I can guarantee you that you know people who have lived this brutal reality - this is not just an NFL problem.

3) We Can Do Something
And so I'll close with perhaps the most important thing that has been lost in all of the "did they/didn't they" noise: we can take this opportunity to make a major change in how we respond to domestic violence and sexual assault from this moment on, hold others accountable, and raise awareness and resources for an issue that has been kept on the sidelines for too long.  I will leave you with a passage from good friend and Lady Blitz reader Jeanie, a Baltimore native and Ravens fan who is among the most generous and thoughtful people I know:

Here’s the opportunity, I think: let’s keep this horrible story on the front page of ESPN for as long as possible. Let’s talk about domestic violence and the fact that three American women are killed by an intimate partner every day. Let’s keep talking about how deplorable and inexcusable Ray Rice’s behavior was, and how horrified we all are about it. There’s a fear that we’ve become extremely desensitized in this country, which often seems like a fair characterization to me—but I’m glad to know that people are having such visceral reactions to what he did...

Maybe, hopefully, like Michael Vick and the Humane Society, Ray Rice will devote the rest of his life and money to helping end violence against women. No matter what, let’s keep talking about it – not about who saw what when or whether it was a PR play to ban him or why Janay is still with him – that’s all a distraction and does not help us further the conversation. Let’s talk about the women who are physically, mentally, sexually abused – every. single. day. – but behind closed doors.

Consider donating your time or money to a good cause!

National Coalition Against Domestic Violence
Domestic Violence Project, Inc.
NNEDV Hopeline
RAINN

Week 2 Picks for Every NFL Game

Hopefully the stench of my Week 1 picks aren't wafting too far into Week 2.  I got torpedoed by some great upsets a la the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins as well as some what-was-I-thinking drivel with the Ravens and Giants.  Oh well, time to overcompensate and blow it again because you asked - here are my Fort Knox-solid Week 2 predictions:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-5) - Lord have mercy, what I would give for Cincy to beat up on Atlanta to avenge that brutal loss for the Saints last weekend.  Given a fairly mellow schedule this week, I dub this comeback tour for the Falcons' offense/continued defensive dominance for the Bengals the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  As with too many teams after Week 1, I have no idea what to think of Atlanta yet, so I lean Bengals given that spectacular pass rush and the possibility that OT Jake Matthews may have to sit out after an injury last Sunday.

New England Patriots (-3) at Minnesota Vikings - I suppose when you start things out as poorly as I did last week, there's nothing to lose with a few big-time upset picks.  I hope I'm not going too gaga over how good the Vikings looked against a severely struggling Rams team last Sunday, but consider this: the Patriots ranked almost dead last in rush yards allowed last season and looked downright toothless against Lamar Miller--Lamar Miller!--in Week 1.  Imagine how they might do against, say, Adrian Peterson and Cordarelle Patterson.  Adding to the plot, new Vikings coach Mike Zimmer led the Bengals' defense last year to shut Tom Brady's streak of consecutive TD games down for the first time in over 50 games. 

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at San Diego Chargers - This may be a bit of a stretch for a Top Shelf game given how the Chargers imploded Monday night and how much rest the Seahawks have had.  Still, in keeping with the simplistic theme so far of offense-vs.-defense, Philip Rivers often plays with no fear, and he'll need that approach--and some great plays by those receivers--to get past the defending champs.  I look forward to watching Seattle utterly terrorize him instead.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7) - Oh, Jay Cutler.  As soon as the preemptive MVP buzz started, you made sure we didn't get ahead of ourselves.  This is definitely a treacherous game in that I'm not sold the Bears are as bad or the 49ers are as good as they looked last week.  Still, with San Francisco breaking in the new stadium and looking just as opportunistic with turnovers as ever, I see the Bears struggling against such a physical opponent.

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - Good on the Colts for getting two early prime time games, even if going a whole season without Robert Mathis is a bit troubling.  Given that both of these teams have had some issues on defense as of late, this Monday night affair may go the way of a good old-fashioned shootout, and when Andrew Luck is on his home turf, you gotta go Colts.  Even if Philly goes up 28 points in the first half.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) - If you're looking for a morality battle for the disgraced Ravens, just remember that Ben Roethlisberger also happens to be a total scumbag and there is a systemic violence problem in the NFL.  More on that later.  Anyway, this has a couple potential angles - 1) The Ravens put Ray Rice behind them and destroy the Steelers, who are in the wrong place at the wrong time; 2) The Ravens are a distracted, lifeless mess and let their hated rivals run all over them.  I have talked myself into the latter scenario.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-3) - Mercy me, what a tough pick.  It's hard to say how good these two teams actually are given how bad their Week 1 opponents might be.  Do I assume the Lions can move up and down the field like they did with the Giants' defense and/or force Cam Newton into mistakes a la Eli Manning?  Or do I think Carolina's defense will give Matt Stafford the same welcoming party they gave a benchwarmer with a golden parachute last Sunday?  There can be only one answer: jinx the Panthers so that the Saints can inch back toward the top of the NFC South.

Miami Dolphins (-1) at Buffalo Bills - This is usually a total "Who Cares?" game for me, given that the Patriots pretty much always lock up the AFC East by mid-October.  But that is not the case for one shining moment thanks to brilliant upsets by the Dolphins and Bills last week.  Now it must come to an end, and I reckon it will come down to defense.  Miami is thin at linebacker to say the least, but I don't see them handing the game to the Bills on a silver platter like Jay Cutler did last time.

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) - So just how low will the Cowboys go this year?  Losing to the Titans would be a start.  If there was a game to pull the football out from under us, Charlie Brown style, this could be it.  I don't think the Titans are as good as they looked last week, and I don't think the Cowboys are quite as bad.  If there's one guy who has superb short-term memory loss, it's Tony Romo.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants - An early game is nothing to snuff at, even for a west coast team with so many bright spots like the Cardinals. Nevertheless, unless the Giants have time to go on a wooded retreat to do trust falls, swallow the playbook and grow an offensive line by Sunday, this could get ugly.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-6) - There was a moment in time last week when the Jaguars were going to run away with a statement win due to aggressive defensive play and a guy you've never heard of (and may never again) named Allen Hurns.  I think the first part of that equation will be present in the swamps of Maryland next Sunday, and it will give RG3's befuddled offensive line fits.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns - Remember, we're only two more weeks away from Johnny Manziel being foisted upon us when Cleveland goes 0 - 3.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) - The news just keeps getting worse in St. Louis with Chris Long's ankle injury likely to keep him off the field for up to 10 games.  Also pathetic: the Rams would probably send him to the Bucs for a QB like Josh McCown.

Houston Texans (-3) at Oakland Raiders - Filed under things I don't care about, I assume the Texans will take care of business against the Raiders, Clowney or not.  And if not, that doesn't particularly matter either.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-8) - Unleash the championship belt back in the safe confines of Lambeau Field.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-13.5) - Poor Chiefs.  Even the Jaguars have a better point spread than you.  But if point spreads mattered on this blog, I think I would still take the Broncos.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 8 - 8

Week 1 Recap and Reasons for Every NFL Team to Be Optimistic This Year

Great googly moogly.  Weeks like these are the hardest to write about.  Not only did the Saints have the kind of painful collapse that physically hurts to rehash, but my picks weren't so great either.  Heck, they could have been even worse if the Browns and Jaguars had just a little more left in the underdog tank.  But because I care enough about you, the reader, I will fight through it and hope for sunnier pastures when the Saints get to play the Browns next week - Woohoo!  Here is your NFL Week 1 Recap and because I need it more than anything else right now, our Week 1 feature: Reasons for Every NFL Team to Be Optimistic This Year.

Blogger's Note: I am sorting through what I want to say not just about Ray Rice but about domestic violence and the NFL in general.  It deserves a whole lot more thought than I can put forth at the moment, and it's something I've been troubled by for a long time but far too hesitant until now to put it on this Xs and Os-oriented platform.  That will change.

Week 1: The Good Stuff

The Seahawks... All of Them - Welp, if there was any doubt that the Seahawks might lose a step from their Super Bowl hangover this season, that went out the window pretty quickly on Thursday.  They may have lost some notable names in the receiving corps and on defense but you wouldn't know it the way they dominated the Packers from start to finish.  Even with Aaron Rodgers avoiding Richard Sherman entirely, Seattle had no problem keeping him to under 200 yards.  Scarier still was how spectacular the offense looked, especially with a healthy Percy Harvin doing damage in the air and on the ground.  I even learned what a pop pass was because of this, what will certainly be in the discussion for Play of the Year.  Oh yes, I am scared about the Seahawks this season.

Miami Dolphins, Masters of the [Line of Scrimmage] Universe - Many an upset on Sunday came down to the wire a la the Falcons over the Saints and the Bills over the Bears in overtime, but who on Earth--I'm looking at you, Ms. Cleo--saw the Dolphins totally dominating the Patriots?  Methinks it's still a little early to call them playoff contenders yet, but they were especially thorough in their dominance at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller combined for over 200 yards of rushing offense while the defense harassed Tom Brady all afternoon, coming up with four sacks in the second half and two forced fumbles.  Cameron Wake gets a gold star for returning legitimate hope to Miami.

The Vikings' Need for Speed - Guess which blogger has two thumbs and happened to start both Adrian Peterson and Cordarelle Patterson on her fantasy team this week?  The rest of the NFC North might be in serious trouble if the Vikings can repeat the kind of performance they had Sunday.  AP alone is worth 5 - 7 games even with the worst quarterback (Christian Ponder or Tarvaris Jackson, take your pick!), but having a lightning fast dual threat in Patterson just might blow the doors open in Minnesota.  He made a name for himself last year as a more-than-capable return man, but OC Norv Turner (of all people) has bigger and better plans for these guys, and suddenly, nobody's talking about whether Matt Cassel will start over Teddy Bridgewater anymore.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 1 Pick - Lord knows I didn't actually pick the Buffalo Bills to win this one, but I speculated that it could happen in almost exactly the fashion that it did.  How's that for covering-your-bases double-speak:

• Alright, Bills.  You get ONE chance to prove you're not house punch material by trying to slow down the suddenly prolific Bears in this season opener.  Will it happen?  I surely doubt it, but if Buffalo has a chance, it will be because that moderately good defense can bail out E.J. Manuel just long enough.

Week 1: The Bad Stuff

The Saints' Defensive Collapse - Say it ain't so, Rob Ryan.  Drew Brees and rookie WR Brandin Cooks were a sight to behold on the road in Atlanta on Sunday, but in the end it wasn't enough with the team's worst defensive performance since Steve Spagnuolo got the pink slip.  The missed tackles, blown assignments and lack of pressure throughout were ugly, but the difference in the game ended up being the last few seconds of the first and second halves.  On both occasions, the Saints allowed Matt Ryan to drive 60+ yards in less than a minute to set up the Falcons in field goal range.  If the good people of New Orleans were to drive Patrick Robinson out of town with pitchforks though, I wouldn't complain.  He certainly wasn't a part of that top 5 defensive unit last year, just sayin'.

Oh, Romo - The fun thing about the first week of the season is we still have no idea what is real.  With the Saints and Falcons above for example, I'm holding out hope that the Saints' defense had a terribly rusty day more than the Falcons improved by light years since last season.  That may be a fool's errand, by the way.  Moving on to a later game, 49ers fans are certainly resting easy after all of the preseason turmoil turned out to be nothing in Dallas today.  San Francisco forced four turnovers in the first half alone and sacked Romo three times.  But on the flipside, all three of Tony Romo's interceptions were off of utterly awful throws, and there were a couple more Hail Marys into double- and triple-coverage that could have ended much worse.  I've moseyed over to the camp where I don't think Romo deserves all of the public lashings he gets for Jerry Jones' sins, BUT this loss was very much his fault.  Ugly stuff that may make the Niners look better than they actually are.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 1 Pick - I can see the jinx coming on in slow-motion now:

• These Falcons will surely be better and less snakebit than they were in 2013, but with so many questions in the secondary and offensive line, it's hard to envision them outlasting the high-flying Saints. 

Week 1 Feature: Reasons for Every NFL Team To Be Optimistic This Year

To lazily copy what I said this time last year, the beauty of Week 1 is that every team and fan can delude themselves into high hopes for the season.  At best, you had a solid win or surprising upset.  At worst, you're a game away from 0.500 and have another 15 weeks to prove yourself worthy.  With Week 1 in the books, here's my hot take on why every team can be optimistic at this point:

Seahawks and Broncos - You may have the first consecutive Super Bowl repeat in 20 years

Bears - Martellus Bennett is emerging as a capable receiving weapon in his own right

Bengals - It turns out you don't need Mike Zimmer to stay scary on defense

Bills - You are a classic example of why the preseason doesn't matter

Browns - Brian Hoyer tried to make you come to your senses this week and did a good job of it

Buccaneers - Josh McCown's not a total bust... yet

Cardinals - Defensive dropoff?  What defensive dropoff?!

Chargers - It seems the Chiefs won't be challenging you for second place in the AFC West

Chiefs - At least your pass rush came to work on Sunday

Colts - Apparently, no opponent will ever have a safe lead against Andrew Luck

Cowboys - DeMarco Murray lives to see Week 2 and looks great, all things considered

Dolphins - 15 more weeks of this and the Dolphins will have a bye week instead of vacation plans in January

Eagles - Nick Foles suddenly remembered how to play quarterback at just the right time

Falcons - 2013 is clearly behind you.  And also, how did you get Devin Hester to do that?!

49ers - I have no further questions about the 49ers defense, your honor

Giants - Eli Manning has fewer years left on his contract than he did last year

Jaguars - To say there were glimmers of hope in your performance is no longer a patronizing statement

Jets - Sure you played the Raiders, but there was offense.  LOTS of offense!

Lions - For all that chatter about Chicago and Green Bay, Detroit's offense is acting li˚e the real deal

Packers - You still have Aaron Rodgers on your team!

Panthers - Not only did you win your first divisional game this year, you won it with Derek Anderson.

Patriots - Tough loss, but sooner or later the rest of the AFC East will shoot itself in the foot for you

Rams - I mean, the Rams could really use that #1 overall pick next year

Raiders - Derek Carr's already well on pace for more TDs this year than his brother had in a nine-year career, which is unfortunately still a low bar

Ravens - Nothing.

Redskins - RG3 has actually looked much worse before

Saints - Even if your defense is terrible, you've got the chops to win some shootouts

Steelers - Antonio Brown knows karate!

Titans - Your defense made fantasy owners with Jamaal Charles cry this week

Texans - J.J. Watt is already worth every penny

Vikings - You dominated on offense, defense and special teams this week.  Forget what I said about Leslie Frazier needing more time in Minnesota.

Week 1 Picks for Every NFL Game

Be still my heart, it is finally here.  I am in fact ready for some football, so here be my Week 1 picks for the 2014 NFL season:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-6) - My, how things have changed since these two teams last met for the ill-fated Fail Mary game of 2012.  Russell Wilson was still a rookie enigma with a 1 - 1 record and Aaron Rodgers' Packers were coming off of a blistering 15 - 1 campaign from the previous year.  I'm guessing the NFL will put its top officiating brass in place for this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Given that the returning champ Seahawks will be playing to a raucous homecrowd and had no problem with Peyton Manning seven months ago, a victory is in the bag.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons - Before the Falcons turned out to be awful last year, they had a nail-biter of an opener with the Saints that was one Kenny Vaccaro finger away from a win.  I'm not complaining, let's do it again!  These Falcons will surely be better and less snakebit than they were in 2013, but with so many questions in the secondary and offensive line, it's hard to envision them outlasting the high-flying Saints.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) - In reality, I don't have the highest hopes for this game given how ugly the previous two contests have been.  Yet with Baltimore trying to rebound its way to relevance and the Bengals hoping to shake off another poor playoff exodus, this shouldn't be a walk in the park for either team.  On a hunch that the Ravens will be fine with homefield and without Ray Rice, I think they seize an early leg up in the division.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.5) - The Colts pulled off a heckuvan upset against the then-undefeated Broncos in 2013, so expect Peyton Manning to return the favor at his house on Sunday.  With Robert Mathis out, Indy's defense looks to take a step back while the Broncos have done more to boost their defensive roster since last time.

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3) - Does this matchup belong on the top shelf?  Given that it involves a returning playoff team and a 10-win team that could have locked up a bye if it were in a different conference last year, why not?  Arizona's secondary is nothing to mess with, but I like Philip Rivers' confidence level almost as much as I like his receiving talent this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - Alright, Bills.  You get ONE chance to prove you're not house punch material by trying to slow down the suddenly prolific Bears in this season opener.  Will it happen?  I surely doubt it, but if Buffalo has a chance, it will be because that moderately good defense can bail out E.J. Manuel just long enough.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans (-2.5) - New coaches and and exciting young prospects mean we can expect the unexpected when Washington goes to Houston on Sunday.  It may not be pretty, especially for one oft-injured and increasingly hesitant quarterback, but for the rest of us, Jadeveon Clowney's debut should not disappoint against an offensive line like the Redskins have.  And maybe Ryan Mallet will prove to be the good kind of Matt Cassel.

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins - Some New Englanders think it's cruel to send the Patriots down to Miami in summer, but I think it will be far more cruel to be Ryan Tannehill trying to outmaneuver Darrelle Revis.  Still, yay for plausibly interesting divisional matchups!

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) - With Carolina's front seven returning and Lovie Smith's [head coaching] debut with the Buccaneers, this could be an old school fight in the trenches to remember.  I'm not totally sure what to think of these two teams yet, especially on offense, so each will face an early test from some of the best defensive talent in the league.  I lean toward the new car smell of Lovie over the January hangover coming from Ron Rivera.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) at Dallas Cowboys - Dallas fans must be breathing a small sigh of relief that all of the suspensions in San Francisco might cut them a break on Sunday.  Of course, that's on par to learning you'll only lose a finger instead of a whole hand after being snakebitten for so long.  Even with all the turmoil, the Niners look like the better team in most categories and that should be enough against Jerry Jones' Louvre-worthy choke artists.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-5) - Talk about two teams that have a high ceiling and a low floor going into 2014.  Judging by their offensive talent alone, the Lions should get past a Giants team that couldn't look much worse than they did last season. But seeing as how Detroit couldn't get past the Cutler- and Rodgers-less Bears and Packers during that same timeframe, "should" is very much the operative word.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-4) - Dear sweet and merciful fantasy gods, please give Adrian Peterson a chance, or at least ACLs of steel, against the vicious Rams' defense.  They'll have to play their guts out to have a chance after Sam Bradford went down yet again this preseason.  I'm not allowed to say this game could go either way and leave it at that, so I'll just say the Vikings look less in flux right now and way better off on offense.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (6.5) - Let the Manziel demands begin! In fairness to the Browns, I think their defense can hang with the Steelers for about three quarters, but at some point Brian Hoyer is going to have to try to put points on the board without Josh Gordon and that is not going to happen. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-10) - Oh Jaguars, when will you secure a big league point spread?  Only time will tell.  Gus Bradley is doing everything right in my estimation to build a competitive defense, but going head to head with the speedy Eagles is hardly the way to engender confidence for this fledgling squad.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-5) - And so while we sit on our hands for Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles to take the reigns on their [punch bowl] teams, David Carr emerges as the first rookie QB to start this season.  Maybe he will shock the world after lighting Seattle's third-string defense on fire in the preseason.  Or maybe he's just not Matt Schaub and that's good enough.  My spidey sense says we don't know that much about Carr yet but we do know how much Rex Ryan's defense has kept many a Jets team afloat in years past.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - True, the Titans and Chiefs don't look particularly bad going into 2014, but they also don't look particularly good.  So this is the part where I say blah blah blah Alex-Smith-contract-extension, will-Jake-Locker-become-pink-mist, Andy-Reid-is-hefty, and then we get on with our lives and assume the Chiefs are a more well-rounded team.  Go football!

Quick Snaps: 2014-15 NFL Playoff Predictions

And so after weeks of trying to pretend I know anything about the future, we've arrived at the penultimate post of the preseason.  In full transparency, I'm one for four on Super Bowl appearances over the past two yeras, so you know gambling is wrong anyway, don't you?  But because you asked, here are my 2014-15 postseason predictions:


AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) New England Patriots
Judging by their schedule, the Pats could easily go 7 - 0 or better to start the season.  They also get to host the Broncos in a game that could split hairs for all three top AFC seeds, and Tom Brady's bound to have a better year with his receiving crew than last time around.  Especially if Rob Gronkowski's ulna doesn't disintegrate.

2. (bye) Indianapolis Colts
Admittedly, giving the Colts 12 wins is a bit of a gamble, especially because the Texans just remembered that their quarterback position matters too.  BUT Indy's used to playing against the odds and Andrew Luck just looks better and better each season.

3. Denver Broncos
I don't see the Broncos doing worst than third in the conference, and that's making a stretch pick for the Colts.  But with a tougher schedule than in years past, they have a harder road to travel after licking their wounds from Super Bowl XLVIII.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Why not the Steelers... other than both first-string running backs likely being suspended for some period of time.  Still, they look like the highest-ceiling team to come out of the AFC North this season given Baltimore's similar woes at RB and the Bengals' tendency to get stuck in second gear for all of time.

5. Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco likes to throw the deep ball and Steve Smith likes to catch such things, so maybe the Ravens have a shot at the division despite all karma flowing in the opposite direction for Ray Rice.  Plus, they have an easier schedule than the Steelers and Bengals going into 2014.

6. San Diego Chargers
Just like last year, the AFC definitely looks like a place where someone can go 8 - 8 and still make it to January.  The Chargers are a trendy wild card pick, but it's hard to argue with how good Philip Rivers looked under Mike McCoy's leadership last year.  He's still got the chops to disappoint in the divisional round!

Wild Card Round
Broncos over Chargers, Ravens over Steelers

Divisional Round
Broncos over Colts, Patriots over Ravens

AFC Championship
Patriots over Broncos - This is how the Broncos end: with a pick six by Darrelle Revis in the snowy trenches of Foxboro.  Brady reclaims the QB throne on his quest for a fourth ring, and Peyton gives us a Manning face to remember.

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks capitalize on turbulence all around the NFC West and continue to embarrass just about everyone else in the NFC with a deep defensive roster and one of the best QBs in the game today.

2. (bye) New Orleans Saints
Knowing my jinxing abilities, I really hate to do this, but it's hard not to feel like the Saints could do some real damage this year with an easier schedule than in 2013 and a legitimate defense to complement Drew Brees & co.

3. Green Bay Packers
Clad with the power of his iron clavicle, Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers to their fourth straight division title in the NFC North despite all the buzz about those Bears. 

4. Philadelphia Eagles
In the war of attrition known as the NFC East, the Eagles have the speed and talent to outwit their floundering-to-rebuilding divisional opponents. 

5. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners look due for a slow start with the many extracurriculars and legal fees piling up, but let's be real - if it weren't for the Seahawks, they'd be near the top of the NFC for the fourth season in a row.

6. Chicago Bears
Marc Trestman's offense has another blockbuster year and fewer injuries on their way to January.  The new Bears era has officially begun, Jay Cutler's scowling mega-contract and all.

Wild Card Round
Packers over Bears, 49ers over Eagles

Divisional Round
Saints over Packers, 49ers over Seahawks

NFC Championship
49ers over Saints - In full transparency, I'm only doing this because I'd much rather jinx San Francisco than New Orleans.  The Saints have the homecrowd edge and a blazing offense behind them, but the 49ers force one too many mistakes and stamp their ticket to a second Super Bowl in three years.

The 2014 Super Bowl
49ers over Patriots  - Can we please finally see this matchup happen in prime time?  The grimmacing chess match between Belichick and Harbaugh would be a delight, as would another classic offense v. defense battle that would surely be more entertaining than the slaughter we witnessed last February.

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC West

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us conclude with the NFC West, a powerhouse of a division looking to stay on top of its game against lesser opponents in the AFC West and NFC East.  It'd be stunning if the West doesn't lock up at least two playoff spots this year, but we also know how hard it is to repeat and win the big dance when every opponent has this group circled on the calendar.  Holy PEDs!  What is happening to this division?!  Good thing they are last alphabetically - with all of the suspensions and injuries, even perennial NFC favorites the 49ers look like they're in trouble.  Without further adieu, here are my final 2014 regular season picks:

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario: After a playoff-grade regular season record last year, the Cardinals shock the world and steal the division from the more highly touted 49ers and Seahawks.  Carson Palmer continues to be a serviceable QB under Bruce Arians with better protection and fewer bone-headed mistakes than last time around.

Worst Case Scenario: The recently vaunted Arizona defense crumbles with Daryl Washington suspended for the season, John Abraham's status in question after a DUI, the Honey Badger continuing to recover from an ACL injury, and Karlos Dansby packing his bags for Cleveland.  Seriously, that's over a third of the Cards' stellar starting defense from a year ago.  Without any help from this side of the ball, the Cardinals may be lucky to get to 0.500, much less 10 wins.

Bellwether Match Up: The Cardinals will have a fair fight hosting the equally decimated 49ers defense in Week 3.  Everyone else in this division will be scrambling to secure any kind of edge against the returning champ Seahawks, so Arizona would do well to get ahead of Jim Harbaugh's bullies.

Prediction: Arizona would be hard-pressed to repeat last year's breakout success, especially since Carson Palmer's flaws were masked mightily by a spectacular defense.  Still, the Cardinals have done enough on the offensive side of the ball not to be completely embarrassed at 8 - 8.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario: The chip on the 49ers' shoulder is so big, all of the injuries and suspensions in the world cannot stop Jim Harbaugh from slaying the white whale known as the Lombardi trophy this time.  Colin Kaepernick's growing body of experience allows him to eke out a few more wins than expected while the San Francisco defense is on its heels.

Worst Case Scenario: Suppose your meanest linebacker Navorro Bowman is injured for half the season.  Then Donte Whitner leaves for Cleveland.  Then other pass rushing specialist Aldon Smith gets suspended for half a year for face-palmingly stupid reasons while Ray McDonald looks like he will become an example for the NFL's sudden "caring" about domestic violence.  If Kaepernick and company cannot pull more weight than their used to on offense, the Niners are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time during Jim Harbaugh's tenure.

Bellwether Match Up: Lucky for the 49ers, they won't face the rival Seahawks until Weeks 13 and 15, meaning they should be back at full strength in time to play spoiler to Seattle's recent dominance.  Walking away 1 - 1 would be great, walking away 2 - 0 would be a godsend for San Francisco's chances in January.

Prediction: San Francisco owes a lot of its success in recent years to having a consistently healthy, deep roster, especially on defense.  Talk about a test for Harbaugh when his back is already against the wall with the front office.  I think the 49ers make the most of a bad situation and will their way to 10 - 6.

St. Louis Rams

Best Case Scenario: QB Shaun Hill stuns the world after 13 years riding the pine and the Rams don't totally collapse after losing Sam Bradford for yet another season.  Even with all of that defensive talent, St. Louis would far surpass expectations by stealing 8 or 9 wins with such limited potential on the other side of the ball.

Worst Case Scenario: Even in present circumstances, it's hard to imagine these Rams reaching the very bottom of the barrel.  That's what the Raiders are for!  Still, it might behoove St. Louis to tank with a very obvious need at quarterback and pretty much zero chance of making the playoffs.

Bellwether Match Up: A common theme in this post - divisional wins are more valuable here than just about everywhere else in the NFL.  So if St. Louis wants to hold out hope for a few weeks longer than necessary, they host the 49ers and Seahawks in Weeks 7 - 8 and could do some damage with unlikely consecutive wins.

Prediction: There was a time when I was willing to give the Rams a respectable 8 - 8, but then the bottom fell out before the season ever began.  Even with a stellar front seven, St. Louis is doomed to roughly 6 - 10 territory.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario: The Seahawks pick up right where they left off, dominating other teams on both sides of the ball and Russell Wilson continuing to develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  If I had to put money on a 14- or 15-win team this year, Seattle would be it.

Worst Case Scenario: All dubious signs in the preseason point to the Seahawks being just as good this year as they were last year despite losing a few substantive defensive contributors and Golden "Fail Mary" Tate.  But it would be hard for any team to repeat a season like Seattle had in 2013, so a few unlucky bounces and stiff competition in the division and conference could lead to a couple less wins this time around.

Bellwether Match Up: Especially given the recent turmoil for just about every other team in the NFC West, the Seahawks' schedule is looking like a bit of a cakewalk.  So if there's something resembling a real challenge for Seattle, I'd say it will be facing the 49ers twice in the last leg of the season.

Prediction: I really did not want to do this 1) because I have Seahawks friends who will surely loathe my jinxing; and 2) it's completely unoriginal, but Seattle looks primed to keep the hits coming in 2014 with a league-best 13 - 3 performance.

And in case you missed it, here's my win-loss breakdown of the rest of the NFL:

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West
• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South