2014 Win-Loss Predictons for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, one of the more unpredictable divisions year-to-year with lots of upside and just as much uncertainty against the similarly matched NFC North and AFC North this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: After years of stockpiling talent in free agency, the Bucs' potential finally becomes a real thing. Lovie Smith turns Tampa's defense into an East coast Legion of Boom, which in turn allows new QB Josh McCown to ease into the full-time starting gig.  Tampa takes the division crown for the first time in seven years after being favored so many times and falling short.

Worst Case Scenario: Josh McCown goes the way of Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb, quickly regressing to an average-at-best backup QB with a heckuva retirement fund.  The Bucs' inability to shore up their offensive line ends up making this team look just like the many decent but doomed Bears squads in Chicago in years past.

Bellwether Match Up: This likely won't be the highest stakes game Tampa will have this season, but who doesn't want to see Lovie face his old remodeled Bears in Week 12?  With all of the work the Bucs and Bears have put into reaching the top tier of NFL defenses and offenses, respectively, we'll be forced to label this one of those "statement games."

Prediction: Tampa sure looks like a popular sleeper pick going into the season with a solid coaching regime and a defense of heavies.  I won't negate that possibility, but I'm also skeptical of what we really know about Josh McCown at this point, especially with a tough early schedule that includes the Panthers, Falcons, Steelers, Saints and Ravens before the bye.  8 - 8 give or take a game.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: Atlanta returns to its winning ways under Mike Smith after a down year to regroup, get healthy, and draft one great prospect at left tackle.  Julio Jones plays a whole entire season, taking a page from Calvin Johnson and masking many holes on the roster until January rolls around.

Worst Case Scenario: Recent injuries to Sam Baker and Sean Weatherspoon just add to the Falcons' bad luck and vulnerability in a competitive division and conference.  Even with a healthy Julio, limited protection for Matt Ryan and help on defense mean an improved but mediocre year for the Dirty Birds.

Bellwether Match Up: With the Panthers coming off their best season in ages and the Saints and Bucs making a good case to be preseason favorites in the South, the Falcons have every motivation to start the year off guns a-blazin' in Week 1 when they host New Orleans.  Snatching victory would give the Falcons a huge leg up with a fairly easy first-half schedule.

Prediction: Atlanta has the kind of schedule to get to 13 wins but also the roster challenges to knock them down a tier from what we're used to seeing from Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.  Almost purely based on better competition within their own division, I see the Falcons improving to 8 - 8 in good position to retake the NFC South in 2015.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Given that the Panthers just lived their best case scenario, the ceiling will almost certainly be a little lower this year.  Nevertheless, if Cam Newton can stay out of harm's way and Kelvin Benjamin proves worth the hype, it'll be enough for the Panthers not to negate the work of that elite defense and stay in the hunt late in the season.

Worst Case Scenario: As I expressed here during the annual Love and Hate series, the Panthers look mighty vulnerable to collapse with holes all around the offensive roster. With Cam Newton already hobbling on a bad ankle in the preseason, even Luke Kuechly's bound to get tired of being on the field constantly at some point.

Bellwether Match Up: As returning division champs, the Panthers have it pretty rough this year.  They face the Steelers, Ravens, Bears, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, Saints and Eagles in eight consecutive weeks, all of whom look like viable playoff candidates going into 2014.  Getting three or four wins during this stretch is critical to proving skeptics wrong about Carolina's chances of repeating.

Prediction: Fact: No team in the NFC South has ever won back-to-back division titles.  I'm a firm believer that this trend will continue in 2014.  With the aforementioned schedule and lack of depth on key parts of the Panthers' roster, I project a precipitous decline of 7 - 9 in Carolina.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Now that Jimmy Graham has gotten paid and New Orleans has acquired shiny new weapons in the secondary, the Saints become the breakout team in the NFC.  They won't go 16 - 0, but they've got the chops to lock up 12 or 13 wins and desperately needed homefield advantage in January.

Worst Case Scenario: As a seasoned Saints fan, I am still bracing for whether or not Rob Ryan's defensive turnaround last year was a fluke.  With Jabari Greer gone and Champ Bailey riding  on a black and gold parachute to retirement, New Orleans' pass coverage could lead to some late-game heartbreakers a la Kembrell Thompkins in 2013 and Vernon Davis in 2011.  Slipping to a wild card spot or no spot at all is in my nightmares.

Bellwether Match Up: If there's an obvious spot for the Saints to improve upon from last year, it is handling the tougher, more physical teams in the league.  They'll have a wealth of opportunities to give it the college try against the Panthers, 49ers and better parts of the AFC North in November.  Personally, I hope Drew Brees' head remains attached to his neck by Thanksgiving.

Prediction: I cringe at the atrocious amount of jinxing I'm about to do, but I am not-so-cautiously optimistic about how the Saints might do this year.  Pretend that you never read that they are going 12 - 4 and getting a first-round bye in January.