2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC South, last year's bottom of the NFL barrel that now has a chance at redemption against the good, the bad and the ugly of the topsy-turvy AFC North and NFC East.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: Largely on the arm of Andrew Luck, the Colts break through this season as the top seed in the AFC, an official changing of the guard from the Manning/Brady era.  The running game and defense prove serviceable enough to get Indy to the AFC Championship and possibly a Super Bowl appearance that most figure is only a matter of time.  Steve Holt!

Worst Case Scenario: A quiet offseason and lack of overall depth on the Colts' roster leads to a bit of a slump after two surprisingly good seasons with Luck and Coach Chuck Pagano.  Barring any major injuries for the star QB though, it's hard to imagine Indy doing anything less than winning the division and making a third consecutive playoff appearance.

Bellwether Match Up: The Colts were prone to a blowout here and there last season, none more painful than the 22-43 rout in Foxboro during the divisional round of the playoffs.  But they'll have a chance at revenge when they host the Patriots in primetime during Week 11.  A win for Indy could be huge for playoff seeding, especially since the rest of the Colts' schedule is smooth-sailing into January.

Prediction: Indianapolis has the lowest strength of schedule going into 2014, which could mean the best record in the league by the time January rolls around.  I like the Colts' chances of making it far this year, and 12 - 4 or better seems like a solid bet.

Jacksonville  Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: Gus Bradley's overhaul starts paying dividends for the Jaguars as does their gamble on third overall pick Blake Bortles.  With significant reinforcements on the offensive and defensive rosters, Jacksonville finally gets back to respectability with a second-place finish in the AFC South.

Worst Case Scenario: Bortles and/or Chad Henne continue to hold the Jaguars back on offense despite Bradley's efforts to build a top-notch defense.  The lack of depth in the running game means no bright spots for the part of the team charged with putting points on the board and Jacksonville beats itself yet again... but not bad enough to lock up Jameis Winston next year.

Bellwether Match Up: Context clues may have told you I'm not projecting great things for Jacksonville this season but I think they're on a more promising long-term path.  With that spirit in mind, the Jaguars have a chance to finish strong at the end of the season during which they'll face divisional opponents 3 times in the final 4 weeks of the schedule.  Notching a couple solid wins would bring a little more optimism to this A for effort squad.

Prediction: Incremental improvements in the roster mean incremental improvements in the win-loss record.  I can see the Jaguars getting to 6 - 10 this year and competing with the Cleveland Browns for favorite 2015 turnaround project.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Jadeveon Clowney, Jadeveon Clowney, Jadeveon Clowney - maybe you've heard of him?  The ferocious long-sought #1 overall draft pick is worth his weight in gold, especially alongside J.J. Watt and even the best offenses in the league are no match for the defense-first Texans.  That gives Houston the option to keep running first and managing their way to a surprising playoff bid a la the 49ers with Alex Smith when Jim Harbaugh first took the helm.

Worst Case Scenario: Clowney is a bust or victim to catastrophic injury, leaving the Texans to continue floundering at the bottom of the barrel, this time with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing pick-sixes in lieu of Matt Schaub.

Bellwether Match Up: Houston should benefit greatly from a powderpuff schedule after clocking in a league-worst 2 - 14 last season.  That could mean no real challenges until Week 6 when they host the Colts on a Thursday night.  The hype between Clowney and Andrew Luck should be fun to watch unfold, but the Texans will also have the opportunity to challenge Indy for a piece of the division record.

Prediction: Schaub was a real problem for the Texans last season, but they also had some ugly blowouts brought about by poor defensive effort in 2013.  So assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick is a marginal improvement for this offense while this Jadeveon fellow is a game-changer, I see the Texans improving to about 7 - 9 with a higher ceiling next year.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: The Titans may not be barn-burners on offense, but Ken Whisenhunt proves a worthy architect in the post-Chris Johnson era.  Meanwhile, Tennessee continues to stay in close games on the wings of an underrated big-hit defense led by dark lord Gregg Williams and ACL magnet/strong safety Bernard Pollard.  The Titans elbow their way to a hotly contested second place in the AFC South.

Worst Case Scenario: The Titans are unable to coax Kurt Warner out of retirement, meaning Whisenhunt reverts to his indecisive, minimally effective style of play-calling with no Chris Johnson to cover up for many an offensive flaw.  Tennessee's overperforming defense regresses to the mean, and the team treads water until the 2015 draft.

Bellwether Match Up: Similar to the Texans above, the Titans will have a lot to prove in their own division this year with so many opponents on the rise.  If Tennessee has a real shot at competing in 2014, they'll need to give the Colts a run for their money in Week 4.

Prediction: I do think the Titans should do better than I'm about to put forth, but I just can't get excited about the Whisenhunt hire whilst CJ2K and CB Alterraun Verner--arguably the team's biggest playmakers--headed elsewhere in free agency.  I'm going to bite my cheek and give this bland roster an awful 4 - 12 season.