2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC West

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, a division that stunningly took three out of four teams to the playoffs that were of course not the Raiders.  Never the Raiders.  Anyway, the West has its work cut out to stay on top of the conference with a round of beatings from the NFC West and a cross-coastal rivalry with the AFC East sure to induce some jet lag.

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: Super Manning is like a bullet in outerspace - no gravity to bring him down after the best quarterbacking season of all time as he dominates every defense that comes his way and puts up the cleats for good after a long-sought second Super Bowl victory.

Worst Case Scenario: The Broncos’ offense is totally exposed after an awful Super Bowl drubbing, especially by the stout defenses of the NFC West. Now that Denver faces one of the toughest schedules instead of one of the easiest, the Broncos are brought swiftly back to Earth, a paltry 4th seed in January.

Bellwether Match Up: The Broncos get to face their fears early on, visiting the Seahawks in Week 3. A vengeful win in front of a hostile crowd would shut up a whole lot of Manning critics and restore Denver’s confidence going into an Everest of a season.

Prediction: I like the way the Broncos have responded to a tough Super Bowl loss in the offseason, loading up on defense and replenishing receiving weapons for Peyton Manning. But powderpuff schedule this is not, so I see Denver putting together a solid if not spectacular 11 - 5 kind of season.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews are a lethal offensive combo, putting up career-bests in yards and touchdowns under Mike McCoy’s strategic eye. All of the pieces come together for San Diego to seize the division and make a deep run in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Rivers falls back on his old, inconsistent ways, making poor decisions against many an elite defensive opponent. The Chargers’ pass rush fails to spark after Shaun Phillips’ departure and the team is left scraping by with a handful of wins against lesser teams.

Bellwether Match Up: They did it last year despite the long odds, but San Diego will need lightning to strike twice to have a strong finish against some mighty opponents at the end of the 2014 season. In those final five weeks, the Chargers will face the Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs with AFC wins at a premium.

Prediction: It’s hard to say with San Diego. I can talk myself into that Best Case Scenario, but I also think the Chargers got lucky on more than one occasion last year--squeaking by the Chiefs’ second string, for example--to make it to the playoffs. And with that theme of tough schedules at the forefront, 8 - 8 seems like an accomplishment.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: The Pro Bowl-stacked Chiefs are still who we thought they were.  Another offseason to gel with Andy Reid and Alex Smith makes Kansas City a well-oiled machine that can repeat and improve upon its playoff presence when January rolls around.

Worst Case Scenario: Refer to wild card weekend: If Jamaal Charles goes down with a significant injury, this team is cooked.  But also, there's the real possibility that the Chiefs won't be able to hang with big-time competition given that they were 1 - 5 against winning teams in 2013, especially since they've lost some important playmakers going into this season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Chiefs will have a steep hill to climb at the beginning of 2014, facing three out of four teams that made it to their respective conference championships last year before the Week 6 bye.  (They get #4, the Seahawks, in Week 11 by the way).  So not getting embarrassed early on in Denver should be Priority 1 for Andy Reid.

Prediction: If you believe in the Plexiglass Principle, then you know that a team that has experienced a precipitous fall or rise in wins like the Chiefs just did will almost surely level to the middle next season.  So it goes for Kansas City, 7 - 9 and all.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: Dennis Allen suddenly unleashes a coaching fury like no other and Matt Schaub reveals himself to be Peyton Manning's long lost clone, Super Bowl or bust!  Just kidding.  I'll be stunned if the Raiders get to 0.500, but power to them if so.

Worst Case Scenario: Unfortunately, Oakland's floor is lower than most going into 2014.  Schaub and presumed backup Matt Flynn aren't programmed to do more than manage games, and the Raiders don't appear to have the kind of juice elsewhere on the roster to ground and pound their way through the schedule.  Going at least 0 - 6 is a real possibility.

Bellwether Match Up: The good news for Raiders fans who totally hate me now is that they've got two attainable matchups to start the season between the Jets and the Texans.  If Oakland can eke out a win somewhere in there, they will have already proven me wrong.

Prediction: You might have guessed this wouldn't be pretty, but given the talent level in the rest of the division and so few prospects to get excited about other than newbie Khalil Mack, I see a 3 - 13 Raiders team that will promptly blow its first overall pick in the most Oakland way next spring.