2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC North, which may end up duking it out with the NFC South for one of those wild card spots this season in many an offensive extravaganza.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: The Bears finally make the leap, reclaiming the division title after years of being dominated by Aaron Rodgers' Packers.  Chicago's many receiving weapons and majestic offensive line puts Jay Cutler in the MVP discussion and the Bears look forward to hosting a playoff game in January.

Worst Case Scenario: Cutler can't help but get injured (or contract polio from his children) six weeks into the season and backup Jimmy Clausen is the Timothy Dalton to ex-backup Josh McCown's Roger Moore.  Chicago's defense continues to struggle since the departure of Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers, and they are no match for Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Matt Ryan.

Bellwether Match Up: There are a lot of unknowns about how each team in this division will shake out given a busy free agency period and many coaching shifts, but the Bears and Packers have the upper hand until proven otherwise.  That makes the Bears' Week 10 visit to Lambeau especially important in gaining ground against Green Bay.

Prediction: I really thought long and hard about how high the Bears' ceiling could be this year, and it's up there.  But until Aaron Rodgers stops being Chicago's kryptonite, this team will play a respectable second fiddle at 10 - 6.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: New coach Jim Caldwell has one of those magical years and the Lions become a sleeper NFC team with some of the best offensive skill players in the league.  An upset or two against the Bears and Packers land Detroit in their first wild card spot since 2010.

Worst Case Scenario: Jim Caldwell has one of those miserable years and the Lions are much quicker on the draw with a coaching search this time around.  As much as Detroit has done to diversify its offensive arsenal, an injury to Calvin Johnson or Matt Stafford would be a death knell for Detroit in a competitive division.

Bellwether Match Up: The Lions have many a litmus test this season with division wins at a premium.  How Detroit fares hosting the Packers in Week 3 is a good early indicator of their chances later in the year.

Prediction: I tried to get the Lions closer to 0.500 in my simulations, really I did.  But it's hard to fathom Detroit coming out better than Green Bay or Chicago this season, and they don't appear to have the upper hand against most of the NFC South or the Patriots either.  A hard-fought but dissatisfying 6 - 10 is in the cards.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: Aaron Rodgers is right up there with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning when it comes to the possibility of going 16 - 0 in a given season.  I don't think that will happen exactly, but Green Bay has a real shot at a #1 seed this year given tougher games in the NFC West and a very manageable schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: Rodgers' collarbone is like a toothpick, and the Packers are exposed as a very one-dimensional team again.  But in a more likely scenario, Green Bay's defense is still a head-scratcher with Dom Capers at the helm - without improvement, this unit could take two steps back for every step forward on an elite offense and put the Packers behind the Bears in the standings.

Bellwether Match Up: There can be no doubt the Packers have merciless vengeance on their minds when visualizing Week 1 against Seattle.  The outcome of that game could have big implications for playoff seeding down the line as does Week 8 in New Orleans.  Going at least 1 - 1 could certainly put Green Bay in pole position.

Prediction: I can't help myself (and neither can Vegas) in projecting a big year for the Packers.  Assuming Green Bay's defense isn't a massive liability, they have the kind of schedule and other-worldly being under center to go 12 - 4 and maybe better.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Adrian Peterson is still unstoppable and made better by a stunning rookie year for overlooked QB Teddy Bridgewater.  For all the fuss about the other offenses of the NFC North, the Vikings have the right combination on both sides of the ball to crush the hopes of their rivals, even if they don't quite make it to the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Peterson starts a mid-career regression with no help from a fledgling passing game and new coaching regime. After a brutal early-season schedule, Coach Mike Zimmer has no chance of winning over an already downtrodden locker room and Minnesota has trouble filling that brand new stadium by Week 6.

Bellwether Match Up: "Brutal" may be putting it nicely for the Vikings' first six weeks against the Rams, Patriots, Saints, Falcons, Packers and Lions.  Things lighten up slightly after that, so fans should hope and pray to get at least two wins out of that baptism by fire for Coach Zimmer.

Prediction: I got bad feelings about Minnesota this year, not because the franchise isn't trying to turn things around but because they have no aforementioned mercy against many better opponents.  Unless Bridgewater or Matt Cassel comes out swinging, the Vikings are looking very 5 - 11.