August 19, 2014

2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC East

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC East, which will face the very best (NFC West) and worst (AFC South) divisions in football and probably have yet another topsy-turvy unknowable season of ugly wins and losses.

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario: Romo carries the floundering Cowboys on his [surgically repaired] back and finally has a clutch Week 17 and a ticket to the playoffs. DC Rob Marinelli gets Dallas’ defense back to mediocre and DeMarco Murray plays for an entire season to give poor Romo a break.

Worst Case Scenario: Oy.  America's Team might lose a few more bandwagoners to the 49ers with an ailing QB/RB, no DeMarcus Ware, no Sean Lee and stiffer competition from the rest of the division.  Finishing at the bottom of the East and the NFC is a possibility.

Bellwether Match Up: Dallas has a pretty tough schedule leading up to its Week 11 bye.  Assuming everyone in the division will ride the win-loss rollercoaster with this schedule, the Cowboys will need to finish strong starting in Week 12 when they face the Giants once and the Eagles twice in four weeks.

Prediction: One of the Cowboys' real peculiarities is that they've had a perfectly 0.500 record since their last Super Bowl win and the onset of Jerry Jones' reign.  I say that changes a bit this year with so many injuries and uncertainties on the roster - Dallas dips down to 6 - 10.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario: Chip Kelly's offense cannot be stopped with another near-flawless performance from Nick Foles and the addition of Darren Sproles.  The Eagles lock up their second consecutive division title early on and in a better position to compete with the NFC's top brass in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Like many a coaching turnaround in the NFL, Kelly's inaugural season was a fluke bolstered largely by a once-in-a-career year for Nick Foles.  Even with the offense humming, Philly's defense can't endure the quick snap pace and gives back many a victory to opponents in true Eagles fashion.

Bellwether Match Up:The Eagles will have their share of matchups against some of the best defenses in the NFL including a six-week stretch with the 49ers, Rams, Cardinals and Texans.  This could be the ultimate test for that burgeoning, innovative offense if the Eagles are ready to make the leap this year.

Prediction: By virtue of their schedule and still developing approach, Philadelphia's fate has many potential endings this year.  But given the state of the rest of the NFC East and a seemingly superb find in Nick Foles, I'm giving the Eagles at least 9 - 7 and a second division title.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario: The ever-mercurial Eli Manning flourishes under new OC Ben McAdoo's system with some serious help from a rebuilt offensive line and running game.  The Giants become that once-every-four-years dark horse to sneak into the playoff and crush Bill Belichick's soul again.

Worst Case Scenario: Manning can't get the ghosts of 2013 out of his head and has another abysmal year of turnovers and three-and-outs despite the Giants' attempts at a fresh start.  Big Blue still has enough chops to finish in second place in a mediocre division, but it's enough for Tom Coughlin to finally call it quits and move to Palm Beach.

Bellwether Match Up: It's a fool's errand to assume I know how the East is going to shake out this year or any year, but assuming that the division will come down to the Eagles or Giants, New York better bring its A-Game to Philly in Week 6.  There won't be as much room for error as there used to be for the Giants against the resurgent Eagles.

Prediction: The Giants' running game has looked better in the preseason, and that could be a game-changer for them this year.  But since it's just the preseason, I'm going with a safe 8 - 8 but the prospect of outdueling the Eagles for the division title if the Giants are better than expected.

Washington Redskins

Best Case Scenario: Looking back on Washington's last two seasons, it's a little reductive but all too fair to posit that this team will live or die by Robert Griffin's performance this year.  So if RG3 regains the kind of clout that took this team to the playoffs in 2012, they have as good of a shot as any team in this division to do it again.

Worst Case Scenario: Repeating a miserable 2013 with a gun-shy quarterback and stagnant defense is all too possible for the fragile Redskins.  Given Jay Gruden's mixed bag of success with Andy Dalton and the Bengals, he may be far from the answer this team is looking for unless it gives them a top 5 draft pick in 2015.

Bellwether Match Up: The Redskins have the opportunity to start out the season strong with a winnable first two weeks against the Texans and Jaguars.  Washington could use all the confidence it can get in feeling like this year will be different, so starting 2 - 0 would be a godsend for this turnaround project.

Prediction: I could almost see RG3 shocking the world again with the curse of the Shanahans in his rearview window, but Washington has a lot of work to do at just about every position but running back this season.  I'm putting the Redskins at a typical 5 - 11.

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