2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC East

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us start with the AFC East, which better beef up its defensive efforts this year in facing three conference playoff teams from 2013 (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers) and the vaunted offenses of the NFC North.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Doug Marrone makes real progress in fine-tuning the Bills' offense during his second year at the helm in Buffalo, E.J. Manuel stays healthy enough to have an impact, and Sammy Watkins proves to be a once-in-a-generation receiver.  The Bills have a solid-enough year to generate playoff buzz going into next season.

Worst Case Scenario: Manuel has another rough season of injuries and setbacks and the Bills' defense is rudderless from the start without Jairus Byrd, Kiko Alonso and ex-DC Mike Pettine.  Buffalo has to play catchup with a fledgling offense for nearly every game against much more seasoned opponents.  In other words, disaster.

Bellwether Match Up: It looks to be do or die for the Bills by the time they visit the Jets in Week 8.  Halfway through their divisional games going into the bye week, Buffalo will need to make the case that they can play at least third if not second fiddle to the Patriots to have a shot.

Prediction: I really wanted to give these guys a more promising outlook after a miserable decade-plus of losing records, but the Bills are facing a vortex on a once-solid defense, especially after Kiko Alonso suffered a season-ending injury before Week 1.  With the opponents mentioned above, 5 - 11 seems depressingly fair.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: Ryan Tannehill finally makes a name for himself within one of the best QB draft classes since 2004, even outgunning one or two of the "elite" passers the Dolphins will face early and often this season.  It's enough to open up Miami's anemic running game and make this team a playoff contender in the turbulent AFC.

Worst Case Scenario: The Dolphins are no better for all of their trouble at offensive line, and Tannehill experiences another year of punishment without much protection or help on the ground.  Miami's so-so defense can't hang with the big guns, and the front office starts preparing for overhaul #27.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 1, hosting the Patriots.  Miami pulled off a surprising late-season victory against New England in 2013 largely due to Tannehill's heroics.  This home opener is a prime opportunity for the Dolphins to prove it wasn't a fluke.  What's the point of saying "no pun intended" anyway?

Prediction: This is a team that has a lot of potential--and thus a lot of variance--in how they pan out this season.  I do think Ryan Tannehill has the chops and, increasingly, the receivers to put this team on his shoulders with games on the line but that offensive line sure makes me nervous.  The Dolphins eke their way to 8 - 8.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: The Jets defense returns to its stingy, punishing old self with emerging playmakers like Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson dictating the line of scrimmage.  Barring catastrophic injury (ha!) to Michael Vick, the Jets ground-and-pound their way to another surprising playoff berth under Rex Ryan.

Worst Case Scenario: Vick takes Geno Smith's place in making bone-headed, game-ruining decisions before promptly getting injured and throwing a shaky, inexperienced QB (like Smith) back into the mix.  All the smashmouth defense in the world can't hold back opponents when the Jets fail to put points on the board and Rex finally gets the axe.

Bellwether Match Up: The Jets' defense will have its shot at murderer's row for Weeks 2 - 7 during which Gang Green will face Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady.  Going at least 3 - 4 during that stretch would be a huge accomplishment and a necessity for the Jets to make the playoffs.

Prediction: I've gone back and forth a lot on this one, and I think the Jets will play better than their record will suggest at the end of the season.  But given the above stretch and the fact that Michael Vick just isn't the game-changer he used to be, New York will have to get every bit out of the easier part of their schedule to go 7 - 9.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: The same as it is every year - the Pats get another shot at Lombardi #4 with one of the very best coaches and QBs in the game, this time without the litany of major injuries that almost didn't impact New England anyway last season.  Plus, Darrelle Revis!

Worst Case Scenario: Another superb year for rival Peyton Manning and/or the Colts drops the Patriots in the playoff seeding, making the road to Phoenix more difficult.  Also, Rob Gronkowski goes down in Week 3 and Tom Brady has to keep making miracles happen with a still-developing receiving corps.

Bellwether Match Up: The same as it is every year - hosting Manning's Broncos in Week 9 with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs possibly on the line.

Prediction: I know there are at least a couple Patriots fans out there who are seething that I'm jinxing their team like this.  But considering how close the Bill Belichick machine got to the Super Bowl last year with so many challenges to overcome, could we expect anything less than at least 12 - 4 this year?