2014 Win-Loss Predictions for the AFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2014 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC North, an internally competitive division that has opportunities to take many a win from the shaky AFC South, give some back to the usually dangerous NFC South and likely nab more than one playoff spot.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: Despite losing DC Mike Zimmer, the Bengals' depth and experience on defense continues to make them a force to be reckoned with, out-muscling the rival Ravens and Steelers.  Andy Dalton has more good games than bad, allowing Cincinnati to repeat as division champs and finally win that wild card game.

Worst Case Scenario: With both Zimmer and OC Jay Gruden taking head-coaching gigs elsewhere this season, Marvin Lewis struggles to keep his team together against tougher opponents.  Dalton never recovers psychologically from that awful wild card drubbing in January despite wads of cash, and Geno Atkins loses a step upon returning from the ACL injury.  In other words, Cincy becomes a shell of its recent success and reenters an era of mediocrity.

Bellwether Match Up: If you believe, as I do, that the AFC North is going to be far more competitive than it was last year, the stakes will be high for the Bengals out the gate when they travel to Baltimore in Week 1.  The Ravens should be better than they were last year and the Bengals need instant confidence that they can defend the top of the totem pole.

Prediction: So much of the Bengals' fate this season rests on the shoulders of Andy Dalton and the defense's ability to repeat the level of dominance it showed in 2013.  That means Cincy could rise to the top of the playoff seeding or miss the postseason altogether.  I think the Bengals are due for a fall back to Earth at 8 - 8 when their division rivals give them a much harder time.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Johnny Manziel is the savior Cleveland has been waiting for and has a stunning rookie year akin to that of fellow Heisman winner Robert Griffin.  Manziel (or really Brian Hoyer) gel perfectly with the talented, non-suspended Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron and the Browns' offense is clutch enough to sneak this sleeper into the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: After a brutal stretch to start the season, Coach Mike Pettine is pressured into start Manziel way too early, and the flashy rookie prospect tries quite unsuccessfully to play hero ball instead of managing games.  The Browns still have no help in the running game and God hates Cleveland again.

Bellwether Match Up: As mentioned above, the Browns aren't exactly set up for success to start the season with consecutive games against the Steelers, Saints and Ravens.  In all likelihood, they'll begin 2014 at 0 - 3 overall, 0 - 2 in the division.  If that is the case, the quality of the Browns' play is crucial - they cannot afford to get blown out week after week or it will be impossible for Pettine to turn around decades of poor morale.

Prediction: Fact: the Cleveland Browns have won either 4 or 5 games 11 out of the past 13 seasons.  For the pockets of potential the Dawg Pound has these days, it'll be hard to overcome a likely 8-game suspension for Josh Gordon, perpetual QB controversy, and a rookie year at head coach for third-choice at best Mike Pettine.  5 - 11 sounds about right.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: The next generation Ravens defense finds its identity and gets back to winning the games that bad-to-mediocre Joe Flacco cannot.  During Ray Rice's suspension, Baltimore discovers a more effective running-back-by-committee approach that returns the Ravens to the top of the AFC North and the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Flacco continues to flounder like his old, non-2012 self, and Rice's absence/torpedoed reputation is too much for this offense to recover from.  Baltimore repeats last season's lackluster performance with fewer sympathizers this time around.

Bellwether Match Up: Forgive me for sounding like a broken record, but the Ravens also have every reason to get to a fast start in September.  They open with three straight divisional games and could be in the driver's seat for the rest of the season if they walk away 3 - 0.  This of course will be easier said than done given Ray Rice's suspension, but it will be telling to see how well Baltimore can diversify its offensive attack after an ugly offseason.

Prediction: I may be a little generous here given the Ravens' struggles last season, but I think they can get to 9 - 7 with a lot more receiving help for Joe Flacco by way of Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Owen Daniels, and a healthier Dennis Pitta.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: After closing last season on a 6 - 2 hot streak inches away from a playoff berth, the Steelers pick up right where they left off and reclaim the AFC North with a young, evolving roster.  Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount prove a perfect rushing tandem for Pittsburgh's ground-and-pound heart.

Worst Case Scenario: It's hard to imagine the Steelers having a season quite as sloppy as last time, but they lack veteran star power on defense and will have to roll the dice with less experienced players from recent drafts.  That may be enough against lesser teams in the division and the AFC South, but the Steelers could get fleeced by the likes of Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in the absence of emerging playmakers.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 9, hosting the Ravens.  If my predictions for the North turn out to be remotely true--and that's a big if--these heated rivals' second bout could determine the division title and possibly who gets to cancel their January golf plans.  It all comes down to who does the better job of rebuilding a defense to write home about.

Prediction: I think Pittsburgh has a high ceiling this season given a manageable schedule and better luck healthwise than in 2013.  The way I see it, a solid running game and a surprise star or two emerging on defense will carry the Steelers to 11 - 5 give or take a game.