Week 1 Picks for Every NFL Game

Be still my heart, it is finally here.  I am in fact ready for some football, so here be my Week 1 picks for the 2014 NFL season:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-6) - My, how things have changed since these two teams last met for the ill-fated Fail Mary game of 2012.  Russell Wilson was still a rookie enigma with a 1 - 1 record and Aaron Rodgers' Packers were coming off of a blistering 15 - 1 campaign from the previous year.  I'm guessing the NFL will put its top officiating brass in place for this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Given that the returning champ Seahawks will be playing to a raucous homecrowd and had no problem with Peyton Manning seven months ago, a victory is in the bag.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons - Before the Falcons turned out to be awful last year, they had a nail-biter of an opener with the Saints that was one Kenny Vaccaro finger away from a win.  I'm not complaining, let's do it again!  These Falcons will surely be better and less snakebit than they were in 2013, but with so many questions in the secondary and offensive line, it's hard to envision them outlasting the high-flying Saints.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) - In reality, I don't have the highest hopes for this game given how ugly the previous two contests have been.  Yet with Baltimore trying to rebound its way to relevance and the Bengals hoping to shake off another poor playoff exodus, this shouldn't be a walk in the park for either team.  On a hunch that the Ravens will be fine with homefield and without Ray Rice, I think they seize an early leg up in the division.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.5) - The Colts pulled off a heckuvan upset against the then-undefeated Broncos in 2013, so expect Peyton Manning to return the favor at his house on Sunday.  With Robert Mathis out, Indy's defense looks to take a step back while the Broncos have done more to boost their defensive roster since last time.

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3) - Does this matchup belong on the top shelf?  Given that it involves a returning playoff team and a 10-win team that could have locked up a bye if it were in a different conference last year, why not?  Arizona's secondary is nothing to mess with, but I like Philip Rivers' confidence level almost as much as I like his receiving talent this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - Alright, Bills.  You get ONE chance to prove you're not house punch material by trying to slow down the suddenly prolific Bears in this season opener.  Will it happen?  I surely doubt it, but if Buffalo has a chance, it will be because that moderately good defense can bail out E.J. Manuel just long enough.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans (-2.5) - New coaches and and exciting young prospects mean we can expect the unexpected when Washington goes to Houston on Sunday.  It may not be pretty, especially for one oft-injured and increasingly hesitant quarterback, but for the rest of us, Jadeveon Clowney's debut should not disappoint against an offensive line like the Redskins have.  And maybe Ryan Mallet will prove to be the good kind of Matt Cassel.

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins - Some New Englanders think it's cruel to send the Patriots down to Miami in summer, but I think it will be far more cruel to be Ryan Tannehill trying to outmaneuver Darrelle Revis.  Still, yay for plausibly interesting divisional matchups!

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) - With Carolina's front seven returning and Lovie Smith's [head coaching] debut with the Buccaneers, this could be an old school fight in the trenches to remember.  I'm not totally sure what to think of these two teams yet, especially on offense, so each will face an early test from some of the best defensive talent in the league.  I lean toward the new car smell of Lovie over the January hangover coming from Ron Rivera.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) at Dallas Cowboys - Dallas fans must be breathing a small sigh of relief that all of the suspensions in San Francisco might cut them a break on Sunday.  Of course, that's on par to learning you'll only lose a finger instead of a whole hand after being snakebitten for so long.  Even with all the turmoil, the Niners look like the better team in most categories and that should be enough against Jerry Jones' Louvre-worthy choke artists.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-5) - Talk about two teams that have a high ceiling and a low floor going into 2014.  Judging by their offensive talent alone, the Lions should get past a Giants team that couldn't look much worse than they did last season. But seeing as how Detroit couldn't get past the Cutler- and Rodgers-less Bears and Packers during that same timeframe, "should" is very much the operative word.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-4) - Dear sweet and merciful fantasy gods, please give Adrian Peterson a chance, or at least ACLs of steel, against the vicious Rams' defense.  They'll have to play their guts out to have a chance after Sam Bradford went down yet again this preseason.  I'm not allowed to say this game could go either way and leave it at that, so I'll just say the Vikings look less in flux right now and way better off on offense.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (6.5) - Let the Manziel demands begin! In fairness to the Browns, I think their defense can hang with the Steelers for about three quarters, but at some point Brian Hoyer is going to have to try to put points on the board without Josh Gordon and that is not going to happen. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-10) - Oh Jaguars, when will you secure a big league point spread?  Only time will tell.  Gus Bradley is doing everything right in my estimation to build a competitive defense, but going head to head with the speedy Eagles is hardly the way to engender confidence for this fledgling squad.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-5) - And so while we sit on our hands for Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles to take the reigns on their [punch bowl] teams, David Carr emerges as the first rookie QB to start this season.  Maybe he will shock the world after lighting Seattle's third-string defense on fire in the preseason.  Or maybe he's just not Matt Schaub and that's good enough.  My spidey sense says we don't know that much about Carr yet but we do know how much Rex Ryan's defense has kept many a Jets team afloat in years past.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - True, the Titans and Chiefs don't look particularly bad going into 2014, but they also don't look particularly good.  So this is the part where I say blah blah blah Alex-Smith-contract-extension, will-Jake-Locker-become-pink-mist, Andy-Reid-is-hefty, and then we get on with our lives and assume the Chiefs are a more well-rounded team.  Go football!