Lady Blitz: August 2016

August 29, 2016

Lady Blitz Fantasy Football 2016

Team Bakery Special has returned for Year 4 of fantasy football after two consecutive championship belts. After ratcheting things up with a 12-team pool last year, we had a soft landing back at eight teams, so I can't wait to see how it comes back to bite me later!

Starters:

Ben Roethlisberger (QB)
Devonta Freeman (RB)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB)
Mike Evans (WR)
Keenan Allen (WR)
Delanie Walker (TE)
Thomas Rawls (Flex)
Broncos (D/ST)
Graham Gano (K)

Bench:

Jarvis Landry (WR)
Matt Jones (RB)
Gary Barnidge (TE)
Arian Foster (RB)
Andy Dalton (QB)
Tyler Lockett (WR)
Zach Miller (TE)
Allen Hurns (WR)
Stefon Diggs (WR)

August 25, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team, NFC West Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team. At long last, we will conclude our team previews with predictions for the NFC West. They'll be taking on the mostly middling NFC South and the emerging AFC East. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinals get all the way through January with their limbs and internal organs intact, and the addition of Chandler Jones gives Arizona the kind of pass rush just about everyone outside of Denver has dreamed of this year. Bruce Arians continues to build on his case for the Hall of Fame by taking the Carson Palmer-led Cards to their first Super Bowl in nearly a decade.

Worst Case Scenario: Palmer’s best days are already behind him and he starts melting down on a weekly basis that’s as painful to watch as that recent NFC Championship in Carolina. With Tyrann Mathieu still recovering from another ACL injury, Arizona’s secondary is just too porous for the pass rush to take hold. Arizona sinks back to 0.500 and starts thinking seriously about its next move under center.

Bellwether Match Up: Naturally, anything involving the Seahawks will matter greatly for the Cardinals' postseason fate. But I have a feeling they've been lying in wait for Week 8 when they travel back to Carolina for the first time since that gruesome NFC Championship. Arizona--and Carson Palmer in particular--have a lot of atoning to do to prove they're still the best team in football.

Prediction: If you want to be proven wrong, bet against Bruce Arians. But given Carson Palmer’s age and penchant for mental and physical beatings as well as Mathieu’s injury, I think the Cardinals will slide just a little bit to 11 – 5 with a very tough road in January.

Los Angeles Rams

Best Case Scenario: Todd Gurley breaks the 2K barrier on the ground, and Jared Goff proves pro-ready right out of the gate by playing the role of king-maker with the Rams’ anonymous receiving corps. L.A.’s offense finally holds up its end of the bargain alongside a perennially mean pass rush and gives this team their first winning season in 13 (!!!) years.

Worst Case Scenario: Gurley is sidelined with a major injury after being heavily overused against defenses inclined to load the box and take their chances on a rookie quarterback. To that end, Goff is overwhelmed early and often behind a questionable offensive line and starts hearing murmurs of Ryan Leaf. The Rams decide to keep Jeff Fisher anyway after a ten- to twelve-loss season.

Bellwether Match Up: It still feels weird to type "Los Angeles Rams" so this team's home opener in Week 2 will be their first chance to make a meaningful impression on their new/old fans on the west coast. Unfortunately that game is against the Seahawks. Good luck, L.A. Rams!

Prediction: Even if Goff ends up being pretty good, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of quarterback who can turn around an offense with lots of question marks not named Gurley. Los Angeles will struggle to fill the stands with actual Rams fans when this team limps to 6 – 10.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario: Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert engineer one of the better comeback campaigns of the last five years and get the 49ers back to 0.500 or better. With Kelly no longer playing anti-GM, San Francisco starts rebuilding a respectable defense that looks ready to compete in 2017.

Worst Case Scenario: Gabbert continues to be Gabbert with drive-killing turnovers and feelings of abject terror in the pocket. Because Kelly's not so hot on running the ball or milking the clock, Carlos Hyde starts collecting dust and hoping for a trade while the 49ers defense crumbles under a terrible time of possession scenario. But probably Kelly stays another year since not even a hobo would come work for Jed York at this point.

Bellwether Match Up: Chip Kelly might have been in the catbird seat when situated in the flimsy NFC East, but that won't be the case this time around with six games against the sturdy NFC West. Let's see how these new-look Niners do in Weeks 3 and 5 against the Seahawks and Cardinals respectively.

Prediction: Although Kelly is almost certain to bring more hope to the tragically yuppie city of Santa Clara than Jim Tomsula ever could (poor Jim Tomsula), this is still a team that will probably be helmed by Blaine Gabbert. Blaine. Gabbert. And their all-around talent may be even worse off than that 7 - 9 Eagles squad last year. So I think the 49ers tread water at 5 - 11 until they can do more with their defense to mitigate an uninspiring offense.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario: Russell Wilson goes on another quarterbacking tear with a 40-touchdown season aided by a healthier, more well-integrated Jimmy Graham to terrify opposing defenses opposite Doug Baldwin. The Legion of Boom keeps doing its thing, and the Seahawks rise back to the top of the NFC for their third Super Bowl appearance in four years.

Worst Case Scenario: If there's one Achilles Heel to look out for with this team, it's the offensive line that gave up 53 sacks last season including seven in the playoffs. That might not get better with center Russell Okung departing for Denver this offseason. So if Wilson goes down with an ill-timed injury and Seattle's morphing run game can't make up the difference, you could see the Seahawks losing a second NFC West title to the Cardinals and hoping the wild card race isn't too competitive.

Bellwether Match Up: There are lots of goodies on the Seahawks' schedule this season including the two teams that sealed their playoff fate during the past two years (the Panthers and Patriots). But I'm looking forward to another unpredictable row with the Packers in Week 14. If both of these teams end up as good as I think they'll be, this game could have major seeding implications in January.

Prediction: The Seahawks' dominance over these past three seasons is undeniable, and they still look built to go the distance with no signs of slowing down this year, especially with Russell Wilson's rise from wonderful to spectacular under center. I've got Seattle going 12 - 4 in a hotly contested battle for the top seed in the NFC alongside Carolina and Green Bay. Stay tuned for my ~~doomed~~ foolproof playoff predictions next week to see what will come of this imaginary battle royale!

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Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 23, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: NFC South Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, coming down the home stretch with the NFC South. They'll be taking on the highly competitive AFC West and the half-great, half-terrible NFC West. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: These Falcons are a whole lot more like the ones that started out 6 – 1 than the ones that slumped to 2 – 7 at the end of 2015. With Alex Mack anchoring the offensive line, Atlanta becomes unstoppable on the ground, and Dan Quinn’s defensive schemes start taking hold against the formidable quarterbacks of the NFC South. A late season surge allows the Falcons to edge out the Panthers for the division crown after three years lying dormant.

Worst Case Scenario: Dan Quinn goes the way of fellow Legion of Boom expat Gus Bradley and just can’t turn the Falcons defense around. Atlanta is reduced to trying to win shootouts every Sunday, which only exacerbates Matt Ryan’s turnover problems of recent years. The Falcons plummet in the NFC South after another lost four-win season.

Bellwether Match Up: So if you want to know what the league's toughest schedule of 2016 looks like, look no further than Weeks 4 - 8 for the Falcons where they face the Panthers, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers in a span of five weeks. Getting swept there would probably seal Atlanta's fate before the second half of the season even begins.

Prediction: Shaking off the ghost of Roddy White and bringing in Alex Mack should certainly help the Falcons recapture some of the offensive success they had early in 2015. But they’ve got an incredibly tough schedule ahead this season, so I’m projecting another 8 – 8 campaign, albeit one that looks qualitatively better than last year’s and reignites buzz about this team for 2017.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Welp, the Panthers lived whatever best case scenario anyone could have dreamed up last year short of a Super Bowl win. With Cam Newton taking a transcendent MVP turn, top receiver Kelvin Benjamin returning to the field, and nearly all of Carolina’s stacked defensive roster returning, the sky’s the limit for this young and supremely talented team. The best case scenario here is Lombardi or bust with a big ol’ chip on the Panthers’ shoulder for motivation.

Worst Case Scenario: Similar to the Broncos, the Panthers regress toward the mean after a season where nearly everything went right. Carolina’s floor is still higher than most of their divisional foes’ ceiling, so it’s hard to imagine them missing the playoffs altogether, but a key injury or failure to adequately replace Josh Norman could let a lot of talent go to waste with a fourth-seed/early playoff exit kind of year.

Bellwether Match Up: You know Carolina has that season opener against the Broncos circled many times over on the calendar. After getting absolutely throttled on the biggest stage of the year in February, Cam Newton & co. are going to want to start things out on the right foot against Denver's brutal pass rush.

Prediction: These Panthers and the fearless Riverboat Ron look primed for another strong season atop the NFC South where they’ve made quite a home the past three seasons. I’ve got Carolina going 12 – 4 and being in strong contention for a top seed in the conference.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Drew Brees has one last late-career surge a la Brett Favre in 2009 or Peyton Manning in 2013 and single-armedly carries the Saints to the playoffs. The Saints defense under DC Dennis Allen becomes merely bad instead of abysmal so that Brees can finally rest comfortably by putting up 30 points per game.

Worst Case Scenario: Brees’ age starts to show with declining accuracy and arm strength, making the Saints’ offense too predictable and turnover-prone to do its usual magic. Given that top draft pick Sheldon Rankins is already out with a broken leg and New Orleans just cut starting cornerback Keenan Lewis, the defense ends up being just as historically bad as its been for the past two years, and the Saints can muster only four wins before Brees and Sean Payton walk away for good.

Bellwether Match Up: In the Saints' first four weeks, they'll face Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones and Keenan Allen. That's quite the trial by fire to see whether this defense--particularly the secondary--has improved even one mite.

Prediction: You might have noticed that I’m desperately trying to manage expectations with the Saints these days. So I’m wrapping myself in a cocoon of low standards and giving New Orleans a disappointing but apropos 6 – 10 record. Note however that once in a while, teams that I pick to go 6 – 10 end up going 15 – 1 and reaching the Super Bowl, so there.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: Now that the Buccaneers have put all of their chips in on Dirk Koetter under the headset, Jameis Winston has a spectacular sophomore season where his production and performance take him to the next level on the elite QB spectrum. Tampa becomes a dark horse in the wild card race that could end up challenging the Panthers in another year or two.

Worst Case Scenario: Karma catches up with the Buccaneers big time after that nasty phone breakup with Lovie Smith. Winston can’t get out of his own way with a number of red zone turnovers/pick sixes, and Koetter proves to be well outside of his weight class when it comes to game management. Tampa shakes up the Etch-a-Sketch at head coach once more after another underwhelming season in hopes that 8 – 8 will eventually happen.

Bellwether Match Up: At some point, the Buccaneers will need to show they can beat up on more than just the bottom feeders to be taken seriously. So why not try to upset the Panthers on the road in Week 5?

Prediction: There’s plenty of reason to believe Tampa should continue its upward trajectory, especially given Winston’s development as a pro throughout 2015. Still, these are the Buccaneers. They’ve done nothing but shoot down every glimmer of hype an ESPN pundit has tried to throw their way in the past decade. So 6 - 10 still seems about right.

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Win-Loss Predictions

NFC East Edition
NFC North Edition

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 18, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: NFC North Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the NFC North. They'll be taking on the mystery box that is the NFC East and the fragile AFC South. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: John Fox has had a solid record as a sophomore coach, improving the Panthers by 4 wins with a Super Bowl appearance in 2003 and improving the Broncos by 5 wins with a top seed in 2012. Fox's turnaround magic takes hold with the Bears who win their first division title since 2010 with a vastly improved young defense.

Worst Case Scenario: Without Matt Forte or Martellus Bennett around to pick up the slack and many questions at tackle, Jay Cutler continues to melt down on a weekly basis. The Bears take their chances again with Jimmy Clausen in hopes of landing a top pick in next year's loaded draft instead of a playoff bid.

Bellwether Match Up: It's hard to pin down where the Bears might land in this division, so assuming they can stay near 0.500 for most of the season, they need a good win visiting Detroit in Week 14 to stay in the hunt throughout December.

Prediction: Not knowing what Cutler we'll get or how long he'll last considering he hasn't started all 16 games since 2009, I'm going to go against John Fox's history and keep the Bears firmly at 6 - 10 and another year to resent that massive QB contract.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: The Lions' strong 6 - 2 finish last season turns out to be a sign of things to come and they stay in contention with a manageable first-half schedule. Calvin Johnson's retirement ends up forcing Matt Stafford to distribute the ball more efficiently, which gives Detroit its best shot at winning a playoff game in 25 years.

Worst Case Scenario: These are the Lions, so they might just add to a long list of painful, undeserved losses like that uncalled batted ball and the Miracle in Motown, which continue to remind us just how doomed this team is. Plus, with Megatron gone and not drawing double coverage every week, you can see Stafford crumbling under the weight of indecision and turnovers and Detroit landing yet another wasted top five pick.

Bellwether Match Up: It probably won't matter much in the division standings when all is said and done, but the Lions have a vendetta to settle in Week 16 when they travel to Jerryworld. It will be the first time they get to face the Cowboys after that bizarre 2014 wild card game where the referees decided that they too hate Detroit as much as the merciless wheel of fate does.

Prediction: On the one hand, the Lions were two insane plays away from 9 - 7 last year and ended on a promising hot streak. On the other hand, I'm still really sad about Megatron's retirement and can't see how Detroit won't pay for it on a karmic level. Let's keep this team steady at a mildly disappointing 7 - 9 plateau.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: Jordy Nelson's back and the Packers are looking at the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL this season. Not to mention, Aaron Rodgers might play even better than last year when he appeared to be dealing with some kind of nagging injury. So Green Bay might have the easiest path to 13+ wins in the whole league with the stars seeming to align.

Worst Case Scenario: Welp, the Packers might have to play without their starting linebackers for a spell if the Ginger Hammer doesn't like what they have to say about PED use. That could cost the Packers a win or two given how they've struggled to find balance beyond their MVP passer at times. I don't think anything but a Rodgers injury would keep this team out of the playoffs, but there are a couple scenarios where they could play second fiddle to Minnesota again.

Bellwether Match Up: If Green Bay is gunning for another top seed in the NFC this year, they'll have to get past the Seahawks in Week 14. Barring another Fail Mary or botched onside kick, the Packers might just pull it off.

Prediction: I'm giving the Packers a rock solid 12 - 4 record (or better) and the top seed in the NFC. Considering that recent 10-win season and divisional round appearance were part of a down year for this team, they've got a pretty dang high ceiling and smooth sailing conditions ahead.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Mike Zimmer continues to work wonders with Minnesota's young defense, and Teddy Bridgewater gets to play the part of 49ers-Alex-Smith with safe mid-range throws and a mean running game. Minnesota once again sneaks past Green Bay in the divisional standings and gets to host their first playoff game in that new bird-murdering stadium.

Worst Case Scenario: Now on the wrong side of 30, Adrian Peterson starts to slow down, and Bridgewater just doesn't have the athletic chops to run an efficient offense on his own. These problems are only exacerbated by the sudden retirement of left tackle Phil Loadholt, allowing this offense to get pummeled into a lost five-win season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Vikings have lurked near the top of the NFC in recent years but haven't looked truly dominant since the grizzled but vengeful Brett Favre went off in 2009. They'll have their best shot at proving they belong in Weeks 2 - 3 with games against the mighty Packers and Panthers.

Prediction: Minnesota is a bit of a wild card right now. They've crushed the draft in recent years and have a lot of young high-potential talent waiting to break out, but they don't yet have the kind of star power or resume that the other conference heavies do. Even with a tough schedule ahead, I'll give the Vikings a respectable 9 - 7 teetering on the wild card bubble.

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Win-Loss Predictions

NFC East Edition

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 16, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: NFC East Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the NFC East. They'll be taking on the NFC North rollercoaster and the rowdy AFC North. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario: Following an injury-riddled detour in 2015, the Cowboys get right back to 12 - 4 form this season, grinding opponents down with the brutal, reliable rushing attack of Ezekiel Elliott and riding a much easier conference schedule. They make easy work of a division that's always up for grabs until Week 17.

Worst Case Scenario: The suspensions and injuries on Dallas' defense are too much to handle, and the Cowboys are forced into 60-pass-attempt shootouts every week instead of the balanced rushing attack that made them so successful in 2014. The overworked Tony Romo and Dez Bryant can't fully recover from their nagging injuries last season, and Dallas starts considering trading one of these long-time faces of the franchise to forge a new identity.

Bellwether Match Up: The Cowboys have a very manageable schedule for the first part of the season, but we'll know a lot more about how this defense will truly fare in Week 6 when they travel to Green Bay to avenge the "Dez Caught It" Bowl.

Prediction: I genuinely dread picking records for this division and this team. I thought the Cowboys were DOA two years ago, and they won 12 games. Then I thought they could repeat on the strength of their offensive line play, and they got a Thor-sized injury hammer to the knees. So it seems only natural that they'll rebound pretty well even though I have deep concerns about their defense and go 9 - 7 with a shot at a playoff bid.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario: Sam Bradford gets injured early in the season (you read that right) and Chase Daniel and/or Carson Wentz end up being a godsend under center for the new-look Eagles. Doug Pederson works next-man-up miracles with Philly's running game the same way he did with the Chiefs, and this team starts looking like the future of the NFC East by December.

Worst Case Scenario: Bradford plays out a very uninspiring string given the Eagles' hesitance to throw Wentz to the wolves early, and Philly's running game looks worse for the wear with Darren Sproles finally starting to show signs of aging. Doug Pederson is a game-management dud who can't scheme his way out of a mediocre-at-best roster and gets chased out of town with pitchforks after one season.

Bellwether Match Up: Although the Eagles should be given a measure of grace in figuring out this overhauled roster and new coaching regime, fans will want to see some kind of return on investment by Week 6 in their first divisional game with the Redskinks.

Prediction: Although I think Philly made some smart moves in the offseason to extinguish Chip Kelly's dumpster fire, I have some suspicions about Pederson being able to put it all together anytime soon, especially with very uneven talent in key positions here. I'm putting the Eagles in the NFC East cellar at 4 - 12.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario: All of those acquisitions on defense make the Giants top conference contenders once again, and Odell Beckham has another stellar season to carry this offense to the top five in yards and points. After a very manageable back-half schedule, New York becomes a popular Super Bowl pick with a bye going into January.

Worst Case Scenario: The Giants' shaky offensive line finally puts Eli Manning on a gurney, and the anonymous Ryan Nassib tries unsuccessfully to hold down the fort for 6 - 8 weeks. New York just can't take advantage of an easy stretch of opponents and hopes, like most years, that next year will be better.

Bellwether Match Up: Big Blue will need to finish strong with three divisional games in the final four weeks of the season to make the postseason, but some of us want a repeat of that wild 13-touchdown shootout with the Saints from last year just for fun. The Giants host the arms race with New Orleans this time around in Week 2 - bring your welding goggles.

Prediction: As with the Eagles, it's hard to gauge where the Giants will fall given that this will be the first time under the big headset for former assistant Ben McAdoo. But New York has done some heavy lifting to upgrade this defense that should pay dividends alongside a big-play offense, so I'm taking a chance on the Giants at 10 - 6 with a division title and the second easiest schedule in the NFL.

Washington Redskinks

Best Case Scenario: Kirk Cousins really is as good as he looked during the second half of 2015, and the Redskinks retain their division title with their quarterback of the future locked up for a long-term deal. Josh Norman's presence in the defensive backfield helps out Washington's pass rush and gives this team enough balance to crack the divisional round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: 2015 proves to be a fluke as Cousins falls back to his turnover-prone style of quarterback play, and Josh Norman also regresses to his former not-so-All-Pro level of performance. With the Giants getting better and the Cowboys healthier, the Redskinks sink back to the bottom of the division with yet another lost season and little direction for the future.

Bellwether Match Up: Washington has a slew of important conference games right after their Week 9 bye with the Vikings, Packers, Cowboys and Cardinals. That should be a good litmus test for whether or not the Redskinks can hang with three recent playoff contenders and a big division rival.

Prediction: I just can't shake my skepticism that last season was the upper end of what the Redskinks can accomplish with their current roster, especially given the much harder schedule they'll have this year. Unless Cousins and Norman are every bit as good as they were during career-best seasons in 2015, I'm calling Washington at 7 - 9 and a tough decision to make with Cousins in the long term after this season.

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Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 11, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC West Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the AFC West. They'll be taking on the fragile AFC South and the mostly middling NFC South. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: With Von Miler locked up for the long term, that Denver defense remains a force to be reckoned with, and Mark Sanchez/Paxton Lynch are still somehow an upgrade from Peyton Manning last year. The Broncos cruise to another division title and Super Bowl appearance, stoking lots of dynasty talk.

Worst Case Scenario: All the things that had to go right for Denver last year don't repeat, and the defense has some big setbacks with injuries and/or declining performance from Miller post-contract-signing. Sanchez is actually much worse than a geriatric Peyton Manning in giving up turnovers, so the Broncos defense is worn out well before January and they cede the AFC West crown to someone else for the first time in six years.

Bellwether Match Up: There are tons of intriguing games on the Broncos' schedule this year, and they'll have the rare opportunity to replay both of their biggest playoff opponents from that magical Super Bowl run of 2015. Let's see if they can do it again versus the Panthers in Week 1 and the Patriots in Week 15.

Prediction: Denver certainly has the talent to stay at the top of the AFC, but I'm going to subscribe to a couple of theories 1) that Miller won't be quite as good now that he has that big contract and 2) that the Broncos won't have quite the luck they did last season. They'll still earn a respectable 9 - 7 but get edged out by other AFC teams that have been waiting in the wings for Peyton Manning's retirement.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: With a final-final season in San Diego fairly likely for the Chargers, they go out with a bang. Keenan Allen picks up where he left off before getting injured last year, Melvin Gordon puts all of the pieces together on the ground, and Philip Rivers finally achieves an MVP season that takes his team to the top of the division. The Chargers offense gives those of the Patriots and Steelers a run for their money in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Joey Bosa's standoff with San Diego's miserly front office ends in a spite-trade, and the Chargers shoot themselves in the foot on defense before the season even starts. Without Eric Weddle or Bosa, this team sinks to the bottom of the league in points allowed (yes, even worse than the Saints) and Rivers is reduced to throwing pick-sixes every other week out of desperation. The Chargers end their time in SoCal with a whimper to mostly empty stands.

Bellwether Match Up: The Chargers bookend the season with the rival Chiefs in Weeks 1 and 17. Divisional wins in the AFC West will come at a premium this year, so San Diego would do well to out-muscle a KC team that has had a lot more success than them making it to the postseason in recent years. The good news is that Chase Daniel isn't there to push the Chargers around anymore!

Prediction: It's hard to see San Diego doing worse than last year, given all of the injuries they had and their good offseason work to address major weaknesses on the roster. Nevertheless, this team might just have the short straw in a division where you can envision every other team making the playoffs this year. I see the Chargers earning a hard-fought 7 - 9 season while they pack their suitcases for L.A.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: The Chiefs pick up right where they left off last year when they won 10 straight games to close out the regular season. With the Broncos regressing just enough, Kansas City surges to the top of the division with deep, reliable talent on both sides of the ball anchored by a mean pass rush that wins just about every turnover and field position battle.

Worst Case Scenario: It turns out that Doug Pederson was essential to Alex Smith's career revival, and the Chiefs offense struggles to pick up the pieces with an aging, hobbled Jamaal Charles and Pederson off to coach the Eagles. Smith has his worst season since Niners fans infamously demanded that David Carr take over, and the hot seat takes on a mild warming quality for Andy Reid in 2017.

Bellwether Match Up: The big bully for the Chiefs these past three seasons (and many more before that) has been the Broncos, and it's critical that they have a good series against this divisional heavy if they want to go farther in January. KC first travels to Denver in Week 12 to try to shake up the AFC West snowglobe.

Prediction: The smart, safe thing to do would probably be to put the Chiefs second to the Broncos with a wild card bid, but I'm going to roll the dice a bit and say the stars will align for Kansas City to top the AFC West with a solid 10 - 6 record.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: Khalil Mack goes full beast mode with 20 sacks and anchors a mean Raiders defense that can't be solved by most of the great QBs they'll face this year. Oakland also becomes more formidable on offense with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper going together like Eli Manning and Odell Beckham. The Black Hole hosts its first playoff game since 2002 and the Raiders make waves by getting to the divisional round.

Worst Case Scenario: Barring major injuries, it's hard to envision this team taking many steps back with a promising core of young talent. But if the Chiefs and Chargers continue to improve and the Broncos stay at the top, Oakland could be the odd team out in the playoffs with only a little time left to boost their supporting roster before they need to resign Mack and Carr.

Bellwether Match Up: The Raiders have a soft ramp up to start the season, but they'll need to bring their A game in the final five weeks when they face all three divisional opponents and both Super Bowl contenders from last year.

Prediction: In the first eight weeks of 2016, Oakland will face only one opponent that had a winning record last season, and they've got a lot of talent that has started to produce on both sides of the ball. I'm buying high on the Raiders with a 9 - 7 record and a wild card bid.

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Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 9, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC South Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the AFC South. They'll be taking on the highly competitive AFC West and the NFC North rollercoaster. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: Well, the Colts could do me a solid by going 13 - 3 like I tried to predict last year instead of crashing and burning at the banks of Andrew Luck's lacerated kidney. But it's safe to say the Colts still have the best quarterback in the AFC South, so they could sweep the division like old times to nab another title and hopefully avoid the Patriots for the first couple of rounds in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Last year exposed the uglier side of the Colts' roster that they couldn't ultimately Andrew Luck their way out of. And given their very quiet offseason, they could get some very similar results in 2016 with a shaky offensive line and an uneven roster that just hasn't been good enough to beat the better teams in the NFL. If Indy can't make it above 0.500 in the AFC South, they'll have to make up for it against the likes of the Broncos, Packers and Steelers. Repeating 8 - 8 is a possibility, even if their star quarterback makes it through all 16 games.

Bellwether Match Up: For all their struggles with the Patriots, the Colts have had the Broncos' number in recent years. A litmus test for how well Indy's offensive line has rebounded (or not) will be when they travel to Denver in Week 2 and try to keep Luck's spine intact versus Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Prediction: The crystal ball is a bit murky for me on this one, but I still think the AFC South is Indy's to lose after a forgettable 2015 campaign. I say the Colts bounce back with a respectable 10 - 6 record at the top of the division again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: All of the offseason hype for the Jaguars pans out, and they're a force to be reckoned with due to their high-octane passing game and well-drafted defense. Jacksonville flips the script on last year's awful turnover differential with improved efficiency from Blake Bortles and relentless pocket pressure on defense led by Dante Fowler, and the Jaguars finally get that winning record that has eluded them for nearly a decade.

Worst Case Scenario: Welp, seeing as how the Jags' top two draft picks this year are still recovering from major knee injuries, this team could stay put in the three- to five-win cellar of the AFC. With a young quarterback who might be enamored enough with Allen Robinson to throw into triple coverage and a defense that's getting already thinner, a plateau of disappointment could be in Jacksonville's future.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Jaguars could stun the Packers in Week 1, that'd get a whole lot more people talking, but the much more important stretch of their season will be the last three weeks against each of their division rivals.

Prediction: Everyone loves a feel-good underdog story, and I think the Jaguars will improve. Still, the universe can't handle a scenario where both the Jags and the Chicago Cubs win their divisions in the same year, so I see Jacksonville getting a little closer to good at 7 - 9.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: Given that the Texans have managed two consecutive winning seasons under coach Bill O'Brien with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Hoyer, things only get better with Manning understudy Brock Osweiler taking the reins. Assuming playmakers J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller stay healthy, it's not hard to see Houston earning double-digit wins and another AFC South title.

Worst Case Scenario: Well, J.J. Watt has already had back surgery this offseason, so that ain't good. And as solid as the Texans' defense has been these past few years, they aren't nearly as good as the historic 2015 Broncos' defense, which means there's a lot of pressure on Osweiler to do more under center to win than he ever had to in Denver. Another backup QB bust in Houston could have this team treading water again in the six- to eight-win tier.

Bellwether Match Up: Like most years, the Texans' head-to-head battles with the Colts will probably matter the most when all is said and done this season. BUT who doesn't want to see how Osweiler does when his new team travels to Mile High in Week 7? A win against the Broncos would justify that chip on his shoulder and also build confidence for a Houston team that has always struggled to beat the best in the conference.

Prediction: The Texans are such a tough team to pin down. They've jumped from 12 - 4 to 2 - 14 to 9 - 7 in recent years, and got absolutely walloped in the Wild Card round last season after barely topping the worst division in the NFL. With Andrew Luck back in the saddle, the Jaguars looking better, and Houston having a tougher schedule, I'm projecting a slide to 7 - 9.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Marcus Mariota takes a turn a la Peyton Manning in his sophomore year and carries the Titans to their best season in five years. Big investments in the Titans' offensive line and running game give them that exotic smashmouth identity they've been missing since CJ2K, and they become a popular darkhorse playoff choice for 2017-18.

Worst Case Scenario: Mariota gets turned to pink mist immediately in September, and the Titans are reduced to starting Matt Cassel under a coach who last went 2 - 14 with the Jaguars. Tennessee remains a laughing stock in the AFC, even in comparison to the Browns.

Bellwether Match Up: With a new coach and a young quarterback, it's crucial that this team gain some confidence early in the season to build on. So I'd keep an eye on the Titans' first divisional road game in Houston in Week 4 to see if they can move up in the AFC South this year.

Prediction: It would be hard for the Titans to repeat the miseries and bad luck of the last two seasons in full, and I expect that Mariota will be better with some help at the line and on the ground. But there's still a pretty long to-do list with Tennessee's rebuild, and who trusts Mike Mularkey to engineer such a thing? I'm giving the Titans a rose-tinted 5 - 11 and the chance to hire a legitimate coach in 2017.

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Win-Loss Predictions

Reasons to Love and Hate Every NFL Team This Year

August 4, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC North Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, continuing with the AFC North They'll be taking on the emerging AFC East and the mystery box that is the NFC East. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Grateful for his release from ~~death's grip~~ Washington, RG3 turns over a new leaf that looks an awful lot like his Heisman and Rookie of the Year campaigns. Hue Jackson molds Griffin in the way he did with Andy Dalton a year ago, into an efficient high-scoring machine that gets people talking about the Browns' playoff potential in 2017.

Worst Case Scenario: It is the Browns, so we've seen this scenario play out over and over again. With one of the best centers in the game leaving for Atlanta, Griffin gets turned to dust before the yardline paint has dried. Jackson can't work miracles with a team that is a lot less talented and experienced than the Bengals were, and Cleveland gets to work finding their seventh coach and 17th starting quarterback in the past decade.

Bellwether Match Up: Usually for the Browns, this means what game that I think they might be able to win. Why not try to catch the Eagles with their guard down in Week 1 while they're still getting used to a new coach and pretending like Sam Bradford is still a thing?

Prediction: Although getting Josh Gordon back could help pump up this offense, I'm pretty skeptical that Cleveland is going to have any football-related things to cheer for this fall. Better to turn your attention to The Tribe while the Browns sputter to 3 - 13.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: It turns out that Andy Dalton really did turn the corner last season, and with a healthy hand, he bests the 106 passer rating he achieved before getting injured. The Bengals continue to be the most well-rounded team in the division on both sides of the ball, and they finally get a first-round bye and that painfully elusive playoff win after last year's unfathomable collapse.

Worst Case Scenario: Dalton regresses back to the mean and coughs the ball up too many times for the Bengals to stay atop the AFC North. With Hue Jackson moving to a rival team, Cincy's offense takes a big step back and the team misses the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Marvin Lewis leaves to coach the Jaguars.

Bellwether Match Up: With two to three teams that are always in the running for the playoffs in this division, it will be imperative for the Bengals to finish strong. Given how nasty their rivalry has gotten with the Steelers in recent years, expect some blood splatter when these two close out their regular season series in Cincinnati in Week 15.

Prediction: There's no denying how solid and consistent the Bengals have been since I started writing this blog, and they'll be bringing back most of the same talent that got them to 12 - 4 last season. Still, I'm not sure Andy Dalton is as good as his career-best from 2015, so I see Cincy taking a small slide to 9 - 7 with another doomed-from-the-start wild card spot.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: Simply by virtue of not having terrible luck like last year, the Ravens take a steep upswing back to double-digit wins and a playoff bid. Joe Flacco returns to form from injury and looks great throwing to actual real-life receivers like Ben Watson and Mike Wallace.

Worst Case Scenario: Flacco turns out to be more Jekyll than Hyde coming off his ACL injury and the Ravens consider starting Ryan Mallett after a particularly brutal stretch. With Baltimore still a year away from building a roster that can compete with the Bengals or Steelers, the Ravens stay home in January and mull over whether it will be worth releasing Flacco for just $8 million in 2020.

Bellwether Match Up: Baltimore has a pretty scary back-end schedule that could make or break their playoff hopes. Even if they're up 7 - 5 after Week 13, they'll have to travel to Foxborough, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during the last four weeks of the season, and they'll need to win a couple of those to stay in postseason contention.

Prediction: I was stunned that Baltimore faltered as badly as it did last season, so more notches in the win column are highly likely this year. That said, I'm not sure the Ravens have done enough at this point to shore up their defense in the twilight of Terrell Suggs' career. I'm going 8 - 8 and another year for Ozzie Newsome to bring it all back together.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: You can make a solid argument that the Steelers are second only to the Patriots in the AFC in terms of their ceiling these days. The missing piece over the past couple of seasons has been health, so Pittsburgh's best case scenario would be to earn that first-round bye and have a healthy Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell throughout January... and February too.

Worst Case Scenario: If any of the big three on offense go down before the end of the season, it'll be another missed opportunity for Pittsburgh to add to its ring collection while Ben Roethlisberger is in his prime. Steelers fans don't want to take a page from the Memphis Grizzlies and roll out some kind of ill-fated second-string suicide squad in the wild card round. You could almost see Mike Tomlin resting starters in December in exchange for a lower seed just to make sure they can play meaningful football in January, but I don't see them missing the playoffs barring a devastating injury somewhere.

Bellwether Match Up: Let's put the other half of the amulet together from my AFC East edition and say the Steelers' match up with the Patriots in Week 7 will be a conference heavyweight battle this year.

Prediction: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh as long as Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are on the field, not to mention a young, new defensive core that is starting to emerge. I like Pittsburgh going a healthy 11 - 5 with that coveted first-round bye in the AFC.

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Win-Loss Predictions

AFC East Edition

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August 2, 2016

Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team: AFC East Edition

The mental algorithms have been run and the spreadsheet mania has settled down, so here are my win-loss predictions for every team, starting with the AFC East. They'll be taking on the rowdy AFC North and the half-great, half-terrible NFC West. What will happen? I don't know but you came here anyway, so here's what I think:

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Tyrod Taylor takes off in hopes of landing a fat long-term deal with one of the many franchises in need of a serviceable quarterback. And now that Rex Ryan has had another year to mold this stacked defense, the Bills become a wild card contender with lots to root for on both sides of the ball.

Worst Case Scenario: Taylor falls off the Buffalo quarterback cliff where Kevin Kolb and Trent Edwards were last seen. Forced to start E.J. Manuel again, the Bills are just good enough to miss out on a top draft pick and fans resort to lighting themselves on fire and destroying tables in the parking lot... just this one time.

Bellwether Match Up: Buffalo has its best shot to gain some ground in the AFC East when they face a Tom Brady-less Patriots team in Week 4. Stealing one in Foxboro would keep Bills fans' hopes up for weeks to come.

Prediction: For the record, I think the Bills have a higher ceiling than I'm going to predict. Taylor has a big arm and the speed on the ground to take this team places, and Buffalo's defense has the kind of depth that could keep them ticking while the injuries pile up for other franchises. But with some pretty difficult competition on the schedule, I'm not sure they've improved enough to get beyond 7 - 9 with this steeper hill to climb.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: Offensive guru and new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase finally unlocks the mystery of Ryan Tannehill and makes his new team unstoppable when they have the ball. Tannehill gets the kind of pass protection he'd only dreamed of behind Laremy Tunsil, and Miami is in the running for a playoff bid for the first time since 2008.

Worst Case Scenario: Like so many before him, Gase determines that Tannehill is a Gordian knot that cannot be unraveled in the service of winning consecutive games. And it doesn't matter anyway with a defensive roster so old and thin, Larry King had to loan his suspenders - zing! With the Jets and Bills continuing to build depth, Miami keeps dwelling in the division cellar.

Bellwether Match Up: Miami has quite a gut punch to start the season including three road games in four weeks against 2015 playoff contenders. They better make up for it quickly with the ensuing four-game homestand that includes the Titans, Jets and Bills.

Prediction: If Gase can transform Tannehill and budding star receiver Jarvis Landry into shootout assassins, the Dolphins have a chance to be better, but that will be hard to do against other ferocious defenses in this division. I'm saying 5 - 11, which will give Gase another year to draft his way to a better defense.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: Now that the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick have gotten back together, all is right in the Meadowlands again. It also helps that Brandon Marshall is still here. Taking a page from the champs in Denver, New York rests its laurels on a stingy pass rush to win field position and turnover battles, locking up that wild card spot that should have been theirs a year ago.

Worst Case Scenario: Faced with a very tough schedule and presumably disgruntled starting quarterback, the Jets just can't live up to the gains they made in the division last year. A Fitzpatrick meltdown or injury puts Geno Smith back under center and takes Gang Green out of the playoff picture before Thanksgiving.

Bellwether Match Up: Yeesh. In the Jets' first six games, they will face a gauntlet of teams that went a collective 64 - 32 last season. Five of those six teams made the playoffs last year too! So New York may have a lot of catchup to play by the time they visit the eager-to-rebound Ravens in Week 7. They'll have to ward off that other wild card hopeful if they have any shot at surviving into January.

Prediction: As good as this team looked for stretches of 2015, how can you not be freaked out by that schedule I just mentioned? Now that Fitz has gotten paid, I'm not sure the sense of urgency will be there to take this team much higher than 7 - 9.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: The Pats don't miss a beat while Tom Brady serves his time and rattle off seven wins in their first eight games. Yet another AFC East title and playoff bid are a given for a team looking for revenge after getting smacked down by Roger Goodell and Dever's defense alike these path few months.

Worst Case Scenario: Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo turns out to be little more than eye candy, dropping three games early in the season. Although New England rallies with Brady back in the fold later on, it's not quite enough to land a top seed or a bye week this year. (Pictured here: Tom Brady doing his best "I'm having an old friend for dinner, Clarice" impression)

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming there won't be any legit challengers within the division, the Patriots' biggest competition this season might be the Steelers. They travel to Pittsburgh in Week 7 for a key bout that could tilt the seeding in the AFC.

Prediction: Other than a Week 1 trip to Arizona, the Pats should be just fine regardless of Brady's suspension in the early going. If Gronk and Julian Edelman can stay healthy, I got no problem projecting this team at another 12 - 4.

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