Who Should I Cheer for in the NCAAF Playoffs? Finding an NFL Spirit Animal for Each

Who should you cheer for if you're glued to the couch on Sundays instead of Saturdays?  I've prepared a scientifically airtight translation guide to help.  Meet the 2015 NCAAF Final Four and their NFL spirit animals!

4) Oklahoma Sooners = Kansas City Chiefs

Written off at one point in their respective seasons for a bad loss [or five, in the Chiefs' case], there might not be two hotter teams playing football right now.  Ever since losing to lowly unranked Texas in October, the Sooners have won seven straight, averaging a bruising 52 points per game on offense while holding opponents to an average of 19.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs just became the second team in NFL history to start the year 1 - 5 and go on to clinch a playoff berth.  These teams also share a few style points of note.  On offense, QBs Alex Smith and Baker Mayfield are efficient game managers who very rarely turn the ball over and wear defenses down with their scrambling abilities.  They're both having very strong years bolstered by a reliable run game no matter which committee member is carrying the ball.  On defense, the Chiefs and Sooners are both Top 5 teams in terms of forcing turnovers and sacking quarterbacks, and it has shown in the ways they've played the part of buzzsaw to virtually every offense they've met since their most recent losses.  If you're looking for balance and depth all over some well-rounded rosters, these are your teams.  If there's any reason to be concerned, it's that Oklahoma and Kansas City haven't exactly played the top brass during their hot streaks.  Between the Sooners' cake walk in the Big 12 and the Chiefs' Chargers-and-Raiders-heavy second half of the schedule, we don't yet know how they'll do against their toughest competition in the coming days.  But these look like two dark horses who could really go places given how many different ways their talent rosters can win.

3) Michigan State Spartans = Cincinnati Bengals

Next up, we have the overlooked kid brothers of the playoffs - the Michigan State Spartans and Cincinnati Bengals.  Both teams are playing extra football because of the clutch quarterback play of Connor Cook and Andy Dalton - they've engineered great game-winning drives and can sling the ball on the skinniest seams downfield with the best of 'em.  (P.S. Who would've ever thought we could legitimately say that about Dalton a year ago?)  Even though Cook and Dalton have been banged up to various degrees in recent weeks, they'll both be tough to beat if they play to their ceiling ability in the postseason.  Even when these passers are having an off day though, both defenses have come through more times than not - they're stingy in the red zone and points allowed, and they've maintained solid turnover differentials this year.  On a broader level, the Spartans and Bengals have grittier resumes than most going into the playoffs - MSU has already toppled four ranked teams in 13 games including the previous #1, Ohio State.  Cincy had a particularly impressive run in the first half of the season, beating the Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills and Steelers in consecutive weeks and recently only lost by a field goal on the road against the Broncos and Cardinals.  They haven't always looked pretty with some too-close-for-comfort wins and a couple inexplicable losses (Nebraska for the Trojans, Houston for the Bengals). Neither team has ever won the big dance either.  But these are two underdogs that will play like they have nothing to lose and have more than a prayer when it comes to their upside and their experience against the top brass this season.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide = St. Louis Rams

Last year, I compared the Tide to the Patriots for obvious Nick Saban/Bill Belichick-related reasons, but that'd be no fun to repeat.  On the other hand, if there's anything Saban and Belichick really hate, it's fun.  Moving on, the Tide are actually pretty hard to pin down in terms of NFL spirit animals this year, mainly because there isn't a pro team with a running back remotely as essential as recent Heisman winner Derrick Henry.  Early on, the Tide looked shaky while relying on turnover-prone QB Jake Coker to keep the offense moving, but things turned around nicely as Henry's share of snap counts grew.  Although the St. Louis Rams aren't nearly the dominant force in the pros that Alabama has been in the NCAA for years under Nick Saban, you can see some offensive parallels when Todd Gurley is having a good day.  Gurley has averaged a whopping six yards per carry in the Rams' seven wins this season, and just like Henry, he's impossible to tackle until he's dragging 3 - 5 linebackers in his wake.  And like the Tide, the Rams would much rather run the ball to keep the chains moving than entrust it in the hands of whoever's playing quarterback that day.  These teams are even closer spirit animals on defense where they have an embarrassment of riches at the line of scrimmage.  Alabama rotates 12+ players regularly in its front seven and is downright brutal in its pass rush - it's been more than enough to wear down just about every offense they've faced this season by the end of the third quarter.  Rinse and repeat for St. Louis, whose current roster includes Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis among others.  Most NFL teams would kill their salary cap for just one defender of that caliber.  In sum, these are your quintessential ground-and-pound teams if you like a vintage game in the trenches.

1) Clemson Tigers = Carolina Panthers

Between these guys and UNC's surprising year, it's been a spectacular football season in the Carolinas.  But the similarities for the Tigers and Panthers don't end with geographic proximity and jungle cats.  Most prominently, they both have quarterbacks who are Carrying The Load and having Heisman/MVP-caliber seasons.  Although these teams' reshuffled offensive lines and fairly anonymous skill players have surpassed preseason expectations, there's no doubt that these two offenses--and these two teams' paths to the playoffs--have run entirely through Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton.  Watson and Newton have been dual-threat passers at their best this season, leading their teams to astounding 13 - 0 and 14 - 1 records with career-best QB ratings.  Of course, we shouldn't understate what the Tigers and Panthers have accomplished on the defensive side of the ball.  Clemson's defensive efficiency is second only to Alabama's this season in college football and anchored by an aggressive front seven that can stuff the run and keep pressure on the pocket.  That probably sounds familiar to Panthers fans who continue to enjoy one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL these days in Luke Kuechley and Thomas Davis.  All told, Clemson and Carolina have huge talent where it matters most on the roster, and it's led these two teams to the top of their leagues in electrifying fashion.  Now we'll see if it's enough to keep them at the top when the playoff dust settles.

Enjoy the games!!!

NFL Week 16 Picks

For Christmas, I got you some Week 16 picks.  I really shouldn't have!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) - These two playoff-bound NFC teams might just give us a January preview in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  There's a lot to love here, especially two Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks squaring off and the Cardinals vying for a first-round bye and the chance to rest their starters next week if they win.  You can never quite count out the Packers on the strength of Aaron Rodgers, and he should have more elbow room now that Tyrann Mathieu is sadly out for the season.  Still, I like the balance and depth Arizona has all over its roster and that sneaky-good homefield advantage.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5) - Next up, we have another big battle for the bye between two playoff-bound AFC teams.  It's a shame this one will be managed by two backup quarterbacks, but at least that'll give both of these great defenses a chance to shine.  Given that Andy Dalton won't have another chance to wilt under the prime time lights, the Bengals have a decent shot at pulling off the win.  But I worry about Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill being able to carry the load on offense against the Broncos' front seven, so I'm going Denver.

Washington Redskinks at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - It's weird to see things actually kind of work out in Washington the way that Jay Gruden wanted.  He threw RG3 to the wolves in the preseason and demoted him to safety on the practice squad, put in Kirk "more interceptions than touchdowns" Cousins full time, and got this team to 0.500, which is seemingly always enough to win first place in the NFC East.  The Redskinks should probably win this weekend.  Cousins has gotten better and better while the Eagles have been mired in mediocrity, never winning more than two games in a row this season.  But Washington has an ugly 1 - 5 record on the road, and will probably find some way to blow this.

New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets - A win for the Pats this weekend would give them homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to go with the bye week they've already secured.  The Jets have proven that they're no slouches during their first year with Todd Bowles, so I'm hoping this is at least more exciting than most games involving the hellbent Patriots this season.  Nevertheless, when Gronk on the field and Darrelle Revis at less than peak performance, New England's #1 seed feels like a foregone conclusion.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-5.5) - Last weekend, the Rams and Chargers both won resoundingly in what could be the last games they'll ever play in their respective home stadiums.  Now San Diego looks to return the favor for their possible 2016 arena-mates in what could be a very weird and awkward game.  I reckon this very good Raiders team with exciting budding stars will do their best to give the Black Hole a proper send off on Christmas Eve.  I'll be rooting for 'em.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6) - These teams are both out of the running for the playoffs, so this game might be total crap.  Even the Memphis area has stopped airing Cowboys games as of late, which tells you something.  So with Kellen Moore trying to protect a cushy backup job and the Bills shuffling lots of players onto injured reserve, nothing is guaranteed in this one.  I guess I figure if they were trying to play a normal game, Buffalo would eke out just enough offense against Dallas's overlooked but solid defense to give the home crowd another reason to slam each other into tables with glee.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Although this season is shot, you could see why fans of these two teams have some optimism going into 2016.  Jay Cutler has had a really nice year after getting many a healthy scratch for Jimmy Clausen a year ago, Jeremy Langford looks like the next answer if Matt Forte leaves in free agency, and John Fox has molded the Bears defense into something kind of respectable.  Meanwhile, after a few rough rookie starts, the Bucs' Jameis Winston has started playing to his #1 overall potential, and Doug Martin is balling like it's 2012.  Speaking of Martin, Chicago's run defense leaves something to be desired, and I think that should open things up for the Buccaneers offense in a way they just couldn't do against those stingy Rams last week.

Carolina Panthers (-7) at Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are essentially playing for pride in this one, but trying to topple your division rival that is two games away from a perfect season is a pretty good reason to play for pride.  I feel conflicted as a Saints fan about what would be the better outcome, especially since Atlanta hasn't technically been eliminated from the playoffs yet.  But the very obvious smart bet is to go with the 14 - 0 team that has been steamrolling defenses for the past two months instead of the one that just won its first game since November 1st.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) - The Rams have been Seahawks killers (and NFC West killers in general) ever since Jeff Fisher took the helm.  It's been kind of fun during an otherwise lackluster tenure to see David wing a stone here and there at perennial Super Bowl favorites in the 49ers and then the Seahawks.  Still, who wants to play Seattle right now, even the Panthers?  Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have been on fire - enough to make us forget about Jimmy Graham and the Legion of Boom for a while.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4.5) - Holy guac, the Texans are really going to pull this off.  Too bad they won't have the chance to ruin the Bengals' postseason until the divisional round this year, which they probably won't get to.  But for DeAndre Hopkins alone, let's just enjoy another weird, weird year in the AFC South.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-11) - Hey, the Chiefs are really good! Yay!

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) - And now comes the part of the blog where I'm just trying to get out of here and go do Christmas Eve things.  It is not well thought out.  It is entirely based on a quick glance at the long list of Dolphins receivers and backs who are questionable right now - the Colts defense can surely beat somebody if they're dragging an ankle, right?

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-9.5) - I reckon the Lions will win this one.  PM me if you think of anything more interesting to say about this game.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Baltimore Ravens - Oh how the mighty rivalry has fallen.  The Ravens are already golfing in Maui in their minds, so expect their secondary to go to sleep against arguably the best passing corps in the league right now.  Who says it's too early for some New Year's fireworks?

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - I'm trying to find the words to express to you how stupid it is that Drew Brees allegedly plans to play this meaningless game on Sunday with a torn plantar fascia.  May the Saints reap what they sow while I do yardwork.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) - With Odell Beckham riding the pine this week for a well-deserved suspension, the complexion of the Giants' offense just got a whole lot uglier.  For those who don't remember Eli Manning's performance pre-ODB, let me remind you.  In 2013, Manning completed just 57% of his passes with a nasty QB rating of 33.8.  This season, he's completing nearly 64% of his passes with a QBR of 66.3.  I'm expecting a Vikings mauling this time around.  Also, why in the heck is this thing in prime time when NBC could have flexed to Packers-Cardinals?!

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  For Week 16, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -3 over Jets
• Texans +4.5 over Titans
•  Vikings -5.5 over Giants

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 142 - 82
Against the Spread: 22 - 23

NFL Week 15 Picks

It's beginning to look a lot like Week 15 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) - Denver's stalwart defense was able to shut down another high-flying offense recently when the Patriots came to town, but they needed some untimely injuries to help. Now we'll see if they can slow down Pittsburgh's turbo-charged passing game in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I reckon some of the miscues between Brock Osweiler and his receivers could smooth themselves out with more reps, but the struggling Broncos' offense doesn't look ready to go toe-to-toe with Antonio Brown and company at this time.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2) - In this corner, we have two 6 - 7 teams with backup quarterbacks vying for the "honor" of winning the AFC South.  It probably won't make for great television to the casual fan, but it is one of the more meaningful games on the schedule this week.  I don't feel great about either team, but I'm going to give DeAndre Hopkins the chance to shred Indy's defense while J.J. Watt and a quietly blossoming Jadeveon Clowney try to ground the Colts on the other side of the ball.

Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at New York Giants - That 16 - 0 is well within sight for the Panthers with three weeks to go.  But if I had to pick one team as an upset specialist, it'd be the New York Giants.  They were one series of bad clock management away from ruining the Patriots winning streak [again] earlier this year, and even though they're far from world-beaters, they tend to show up in big games.  I'm most intrigued by the Josh Norman-Odell Beckham matchup and whether or not the Panthers offense is up to the challenge without Jonathan Stewart and possibly Greg Olsen.  This really could be a close one, ladies and gents!

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - Did you know Carson Palmer has already thrown for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this season?  Those are Brady/Rodgers numbers.  Palmer owes coach Bruce Arians a fruit basket for a reanimated career and a genuine shot at the Super Bowl.  I like the Cardinals' chances against the much less reliable Philadelphia offense.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) - These two teams have been in a bit of a tailspin lately after a strong middle half of the season.  But the Vikings have a laser focus on protecting their wild card spot and the kind of defensive front that tends to give Jay Cutler fits from time to time.  See also: the Bears' questionable run defense.

Buffalo Bills (-2) at Washington Redskinks - I really need Tyrod Taylor to pull it together for my fantasy team, and he usually does that when I pick against the Bills... and put him on the bench.  Only the former is going to happen this week.  But I'm also going on the fact that the Redskinks have been pretty good at home this season, especially Kirk Cousins.  Given that every other team in the NFC East has a very tough matchup this week, Washington can make some real separation with two weeks left to go if they can keep Greg Roman's multi-faceted offense at bay.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Oakland Raiders - If Aaron Rodgers isn't already having nightmares about facing Khalil Mack this weekend, he should.  Mack notched five sacks in upsetting the Broncos last week, and this Raiders team is really starting to look dangerous/fun for 2016 even if they haven't been able to get there just yet.  Nevertheless, the Packers' offensive line is getting closer to full strength, and maybe Mike McCarthy is finally redeeming his playcalling after all.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-1.5) - What a gross game.  What is this even doing in the Well Drink bucket?  (Note to self: Have you seen the garbage in the House Punch tier this week?) If I'm trying to be optimistic, this could have some sloppy big-play antics given how rough these two defenses look.  So I'm counting on the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot in terms of 2016 draft position but also giving the home crowd something to cheer about in what may just be their final game in San Diego.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Oh Lawd.  Here I go jinxing the Saints again.  But before you roll your eyes, just know that Drew Brees at home in prime time is unimpeachable.  Since 2010, the Saints have gone 16 - 1 when they play at night in the Superdome.  I look forward to seeing how they'll screw that up against the uneven Lions.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5) - Sadly, I already picked the Bucs in this one via social media.  And since I'll be taking some time off over the next two weeks, I should be back to good posting habits for the remainder of the season.  Woot!

New York Jets (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys - Kanye have mercy, Matt Cassel.  Is Brandon Weeden really that much worse?  I say Ryan Fitzpatrick's tamed beard goes 4 - 0 in this Saturday night snoozer.

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) - This could/should be the exclamation point on the Falcons' fall from grace this season. It's also the official Red Flag Bowl for any team thinking about hiring another Seattle assistant for a head coaching gig in the near future. Of course, the Browns probably won't pay attention and hire Darrell Bevell any day now.  Anyway, I really like what the Jaguars offense has been cooking as the season's gone on - that's a lot more than I can say for that underwhelming Atlanta offense.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots  (-14) - Welp, it looks like the Patriots have figured things out again.  I hear this Gronk guy is pretty good.  What says you, Marcus?

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Baltimore Ravens - The formerly 1 - 5 Chiefs are now sitting pretty with the 5th seed wild card spot in the AFC.  They've got a decent chance of winning out with this one, the Browns and the Raiders left on the schedule, and maybe some of that Royals devil magic has been wearing off on them down Lancers Lane.  #obscureKansasCitygeography

Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-15) - The Seahawks may not get a bye week in January, but this is a pretty good consolation prize.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Things just got a lot more interesting for a Bengals team that probably didn't want things to get more interesting in one of their best seasons in decades.  Still, I'm feeling optimistic about Cincy surviving a few weeks without Andy Dalton.  1) A.J. McCarron may not have tons of pro experience, but he's had plenty of snaps on the biggest stage in college football; 2) the 49ers' run defense should be pretty generous in order for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill to stay on schedule; and 3) I'm obligated to make fun of Blaine Gabbert every week.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  For Week 15, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Jets -3.5 over Cowboys
• Bears +5.5 over Vikings
• Packers -3 over Raiders

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 129 - 79
Against the Spread: 21 - 21

NFL Week 14 Picks

We survived the ides of NFL Week 13 just fine, so here are some hastily thought out Week 14 picks to keep moving the chains.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Two highly entertaining division rivals will air it out with big playoff implications in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I've gone back and forth on what will happen in this one. Both teams are peaking at the right time and have the offensive chops to win in a shootout. As dangerous as the Steelers are these days, I still like Cincy's defense better - Pittsburgh's secondary could have a long day against Andy Dalton during his career-best season.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) - The Vikings showed some serious cracks in that 38 - 7 drubbing at home last weekend.  Things won't get much easier going to Arizona on a short week, but maybe the Seattle wakeup call and the promise of a wild card spot will keep Minnesota in the game against the high-flying Cardinals.  I think the Cardinals are just too good for them to pull it off in these circumstances, but with two winnable games up next against the Bears and Giants, the Vikings have a good chance of making it to January regardless.

Buffalo Bills (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles - These two teams' records are the definition of mediocre, but this could be a fun one.  A real fun one.  You've got LeSean McCoy looking for vengeance against his former coach and the Bills' big-play offense against the Eagles' big-play defense and special teams group that lit up the Patriots last week.  I'm banking on Buffalo winning the turnover battle and exploiting Philly's run defense to eke out a win here.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5

Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (PK) - I'm not sure anyone--much less the hapless and snakebit Lions--can really recover from a gut punch like the one Aaron Rodgers delivered on an untimed down last week. Given that my fantasy opponent had both Rodgerses, I haven't really recovered yet either.  But Detroit played well enough to win then and have gotten better than their record suggests in the second half of the season.  I definitely can't say that for the Rams.

Washington Redskinks at Chicago Bears (-3) - How's this for a vote of confidence?  The Redskinks are 1 - 5 on the road this season while the Bears are 0 - 5 at home.  It's gross, but this is still a big game for Washington in an NFC (L)East title that will almost certainly be up for grabs into Week 17.  Even though the Redskinks will be playing with desperation, I am legally obligated to acknowledge that Jay Cutler hasn't been that bad this year and Chicago's defense is getting better as the season goes on.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - So for those of you waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Panthers' undefeated season, they get the Falcons twice, the Buccaneers and the Giants in their final four weeks.  It is real unless Eli Manning can conjure up some of that devil magic that turned the Patriots into an 18 - 1 team many moons ago.  Atlanta has continued to nose dive after another heartbreaking loss to the Bucs last weekend.  I don't think they'll be getting in the way of Luke Kuechly and friends this week either.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-7.5) - It feels like the torch will be passed sooner than later in this rivalry.  Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have looked every bit like franchise stars while the Broncos will have a lot of veteran talent to replace in the coming years.  Nevertheless, Denver's defense has a tight grip on that torch going into 2016.

New England Patriots (-3) at Houston Texans - Tom Brady vs. J.J. Watt? I reckon the CBS graphics team has had no problem finding creative inspiration for this Photoshop project.  The Patriots haven't looked good lately for understandable reasons, but I just can't see them dropping a third straight game against a Texans team they've beaten handily more times than not.

New York Giants (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins - If you like sloppy shootouts, this could be just the game for you! Eli Manning will be trying to get the ball to Odell Beckham instead of Brent Grimes, likely with mixed results.  Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker will work on exploiting the many holes in New York's secondary, likely with mixed results.  My best guess is the Giants will make it as hard as possible on themselves to win their terrible division.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5) - At this point, the Browns should just write a "will they? won't they?" rom-com starring Doug Pettine and Johnny Manziel.  This week, Manziel is in the "they will" column to start against the 49ers.  Blaine Gabbert's 49ers.  My point is, this is going to be a really bad game, and I guess I'll pick the dang 49ers because someone has to win.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) - This is just the kind of game that the Saints will end up winning so that they can inevitably fall out of a top ten draft pick.  On the other hand, I'm still not planning to cheer for Jameis Winston anytime soon.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7) - I could go into your standard points/yards stats or fancier stuff like defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA) to make a pick here, but that would ignore a key fact.  Ryan Fitzpatrick got his mojo back after shaving that bird's nest on his jaw, and the Jets have gone 2 - 0 since then.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) - At the beginning of this season, it was inconceivable (Inconceivable!) that the Jaguars would be favored over the Colts.  A lot of that has to do with Andrew Luck's absence, but Jacksonville has really turned the corner too with a great sophomore season for Blake Bortles.  I sat on this one for a while, but I think Bortles is playing well enough to edge out a banged up Matt Hasselbeck and a very inconsistent Colts defense.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) - So the Chargers are pretty bad these days.  All injuries and no defense makes Philip Rivers a sad, sad man.  That probably won't change against a Chiefs team that has been a juggernaut after starting the year 1 - 5.  Holy crap.

Seattle Seahawks (-9) at Baltimore Ravens - It's hard to keep coming up with interesting things to say about Matt Schaub's penchant for throwing touchdowns to the other guys on my own.  So I'll leave you with this nugget: if Schaub throws a pick six against the opportunistic Seahawks defense this weekend, he will have had two four-game pick six streaks in his career.  Apparently that's 4,000 times harder to do than get struck by lightning.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7) - Love him or hate him, the NFL is much worse off without Tony Romo on the field.  From the outset of the season, this game promised to be an electrifying grudge match between two great NFC teams with scores to settle after that whole Dez Bryant un-catch last January.  Instead, we'll have to see if Dallas's defense can keep them in this one through the third quarter and if Matt Cassel might manage to throw for more than three yards downfield.  It's doubtful, even against the questionable Packers.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  For Week 14, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Raiders +7.5 over Broncos
• Patriots -3 over Texans
• Buccaneers -3.5 over Saints

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 121 - 71
Against the Spread: 19 - 20

NFL Week 13 Picks

Nothing bad can happen during my Week 13 picks, right?  Feast your eyes on the nothing-wrong Week 13 picks below!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (PK) - What a coin flip and what a high-stakes game for the NFC.  I think I'll make it our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  If I'm arguing the Vikings' case, they have just the kind of defensive front to take full advantage of the Seahawks' shoddy offensive line.  Take away Jimmy Graham as a fairly dependable third-down option, and it could be a long day for Russell Wilson.  If I'm arguing the Seahawks' case, they won't have to sweat too much over Teddy Bridgewater's passing attack and could load up the box on Adrian Peterson.  Graham's injury might actually be addition by subtraction since he was never the kind of power running blocker that Seattle's offense was built on in years prior.  Imagine what kind of punditry we'll get to suffer through next week if that's the case!  In a squeaker, I'm going Seahawks.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions - What a difference a month makes for the NFC North! The Vikings currently have a one-game lead over the formerly 6 - 0 Packers. And Green Bay’s 1 - 4 slide in November has somehow opened the door for the Bears and Lions, who were winless until Weeks 4 and 6 respectively. Detroit already stunned Green Bay as a double-digit underdog in Lambeau, so the question here is whether both of these teams will continue on their current trajectories or return to the natural order of things that we’ve been used to for so long.  I guess nothing would surprise me these days about the Packers, but I imagine they're viewing this as a desperation game, and that's a dangerous place to defend from if you're the Lions.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders - It wasn't a marquee game, but you might have missed a fun undercard last week when Derek Carr stole one from the Titans on a last-minute touchdown pass.  If the Chiefs let Carr air it out like they did with Tyrod Taylor last Sunday, Oakland has a solid shot of beating this surging wild card contender.  But there just aren't many teams playing better than Kansas City right now.  Sit back and enjoy it.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) - Did you know Matt Hasselbeck is 4 - 0 as an Indianapolis Colt?  He's had some quietly good stuff in his late career, and Pittsburgh's pass defense isn't exactly a steel curtain these days.  But in a potential prime time shootout at Heinz Field, give me Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Markus Wheaton any day over just about any other receiving corps in the NFL.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Jets (-2) "at" New York Giants - It's a rare intra-Meadowlands fiesta next Sunday when the Giants "host" the Jets.  The Giants are the kind of team that can force you to give up gambling if that's your thing.  One week, they're lighting an opponent up.  The next, they're getting embarrassed in every conceivable way.  So I imagine they will win this one since I picked the Jets.  If Darrelle Revis sits again with a concussion, that would certainly open things up for Odell Beckham, which is always bad news for a defense.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) - If the Seahawks lose on Sunday, one of these two teams could take their wild card spot, at least temporarily.  The NFL is a weird, weird place.  I still have no idea what's going on with the Falcons right now, so I'm going with a Bucs team that has been fighting much harder over the past month.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3) - So the Texans are kind of something these days, eh?  They've returned to shutdown form on defense, and DeAndre Hopkins is torching every corner in his path.  That could be bad news for a Bills team that let Jeremy Maclin run wild on them last week.  Nonetheless, Buffalo is getting a midseason boost from playmakers of its own that can spread the field and keep J.J. Watt and friends guessing on the option.  I'm hoping Greg Roman is smart enough to dust off the old 49ers playbook and stifle a very hot Houston team.

Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers - Brock on, everybody!  Denver definitely got some lucky breaks in snuffing out the Patriots' winning streak last week, but they're still a very good team with a quarterback who can throw with velocity.  Young Osweiler's performance to date hasn't been spectacular, but he should get better with more reps, less snow, and a Demaryius Thomas outing that doesn't feature 11 drops this week.  The banged up Chargers offense should struggle against Orange Crush 2.0.

Carolina Panthers (-7) at New Orleans Saints - The irrational fan part of me hopes the Saints can put an end to the Panthers' undefeated season.  They've done it twice against the Falcons recently, and even when they look terrible against bad teams, they often put up a pretty good fight against their better competition.  But the Superdome just doesn't have the homefield advantage that it used to, and Cam Newton isn't the sack/turnover-prone quarterback he used to be either.  I hope this double un-jinx hex works!

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-9.5) - No Edelman, Lewis or Gronk makes Tom a dull boy.  Ironically, this could end up working out in the Patriots' favor come January since they should be able to return at least two of those receiving threats to full health for the playoffs.  But New England has done more with less before - that's a lot more than we can say about the Eagles these days.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4) - Fact: Matt Schaub has now thrown a pix six in five of his last eight games.  That's insane.  Maybe Brent Grimes will take note this week since the Dolphins need to take any help they can get putting points on the board.

Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams - Despite the Rams’ continued quarterback woes, this has the undercurrent of a trap game for the mighty Cardinals. Maybe it’s the warehouse lighting or the OSHA-questionable concrete floors, but it can be hard for even good teams to win in St. Louis at times; in fact, Arizona has already dropped one to the Rams this year. Nevertheless, the Cardinals should be more than prepared for Todd Gurley this time around, and their offense can afford to make a couple more mistakes than that of St. Louis.

Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns - Austin Davis is giving Art Modell a run for his money as the most hated man in Clevelend, but he's just trying to do his job.  That's going to be really hard against the Bengals these days.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - Ugh. Didn’t we just go through this flaming garbage pile matchup two weeks ago? Might as well rip the whole band-aid off. The Jaguars are certainly an easier contender than the Raiders were for the Titans, but Blake Bortles really isn’t that bad in his second year. Really.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7) - I'm starting to think the Bears will be real contenders next year.  Cutler is playing some of the best football of his career, and John Fox continues to add to his turnaround resume as a coach each week.  Add to that the matchup between Chicago's running back tandem and the 49ers' abysmal defense on the ground, and the Bears should have this one in the bag.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskinks (-4) - For those of you still waiting on when Matt Cassel's comeback tour will start, let me know how eternity is some day.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  For Week 13, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Chiefs -3 over Raiders
• Bears -7 over 49ers
• Redskinks -4 over Cowboys

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 109 - 67
Against the Spread: 18 - 18

NFL Week 12 Picks

Happy Turkey Day unto you, dear reader!  Here are my futile picks for Week 12!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos - Rex and Eli might have given the Patriots a scare, but this Lady Blitz Game of the Week may mark one of the last real threats this 10 - 0 team has left on the schedule.  We won't get the annual Manning-Brady Bowl--which sadly we may have already seen the last of--but we will get one of the very best offenses facing one of the very best defenses in the league this year. Given the attrition in Brady's arsenal and the defensive wrinkles the Bills threw at this team on Monday night, the Broncos have as good a shot as any of keeping this game within reach. They'll need good judgment from Brock Osweiler and a heavy dose of Ronnie Hillman to do it.  But I've gone Pats for ten straight weeks and gotten ten straight wins out of it. It ain't broke, and I'm not fixing it.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - Now onto our second marquee matchup with an undefeated team. The Panthers would probably rather face the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys than the Tony Romo-led version, especially since this will be Romo's first home game since returning from a broken collarbone.  Despite the momentum talk for Dallas though, Carolina has looked simply spectacular on both sides of the ball for the past month - I'm not fixing this one either.

New York Giants (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - Sadly, this 5-5 Giants / 4-6 Redskinks battle for first place in the NFC East constitutes the next closest thing to a barn-burner this weekend, though there are some decent enough games below to sip eggnog over while trying not to say anything inappropriate to Aunt Sally.  There's a first time for everything on any given Sunday, but please note that Kirk Cousins has two touchdowns to eight interceptions and a passer rating of 48.6 all-time against the Giants.  I think the G-Men give themselves a little bit more cushion in this always-weird division... at least that's what they want me to think.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4) - Seattle's defense hasn't been quite as vaunted these days as we've come to expect, so this game could be more fun that it ought to be.  Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant will certainly try to keep doing Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant things while the Seahawks will try to run their show through the ascendant Thomas Rawls on the ground.  If Rawls can unleash Beast Mode 2.0, I like the 'Hawks getting back to form in time for the playoffs... perhaps.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Get your Bloody Mary revving for the first game of a busy Thanksgiving slate.  It could be pretty sloppy and low-scoring, but what else are you going to watch?  I'm not feeling great about either of these teams - the Eagles are back to dinking and dunking with the fairly inaccurate Sam Bradford, and he won't have Ryan Mathews or Zach Ertz to help carry the load.  The Lions are in nothing-to-lose mode after axing most of the front office a few weeks back.  So I'm going with the home team - they don't deserve to be embarrassed every Thanksgiving, right?

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) - So you're telling me Aaron Rodgers is still a thing?  Okay then.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - I want a refund on the flowers I sent to the Chiefs' funeral last month when Jamaal Charles went down for the season.  Don't get me wrong, Charles is a rare talent that this team would give anything to have healthy should they make it to the playoffs, but they are playing their best football right now.  KC has held its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns, and between Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, they are getting plenty done on offense.  I just can't see the sputtering Bills' offense having much luck at Arrowhead on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1) - It's been a tale of two seasons for the Falcons.  After starting out 5 - 0, they've had a miserable 1 - 4 slide against some downright terrible teams.  I don't really know what's going on with these guys, but given how their offense has struggled lately, they could have a hard time getting back on track against a solid Vikings defense.  I gotta go with the more consistent team on this one - a win for Minnesota here would be big for their playoff cushion.

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - It's been a tough couple of weeks for the Bengals, and if Cincy fans should have any reason for heartburn this week--other than that curiously famous chili--it's that the Rams have a very tough defense like those of the Cardinals and Texans.  What the Rams don't have though, is a solid option at quarterback.  It's sad on multiple levels that St. Louis felt better about leaving a clearly concussed Case Keenum in the game last week rather than send in Nick Foles, who's started in professional football games.  Very recently.  So I think the Bengals will get back on track with this one at home and not in prime time.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5) - Here's a coin-flipper that might be a last gasp for a wild card for one of these division rivals.  I don't like having to pick this one because so much depends on which versions of these two teams show up.  They've both looked like well-rounded contenders at times and like mistake-riddled also-rans other times.  So maybe the Jets can turn things back around at home this week with more commitment to the ground game and better pressure in the pocket on defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Oakland Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans - If the current weather forecast for Sunday holds, this could be an old-school smashmouth football game in the mud.  That could definitely favor the Titans' defense, assuming they can run the ball effectively enough too.  By the way, Tennessee hasn't won a game at home since October of last year - any home fans braving the elements deserve a small but real victory, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Colts have been surprisingly steady in Matt Hasselbeck's care this year.  And truthfully, Hasselbeck's play has not slipped all that much even though he's been relegated to a backup role these past few years.  Although the Buccaneers have looked better lately, I'm going to check my ageism and hope Indy keeps getting it done.

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3) - I'm done jinxing the Saints for now.  I expect New Orleans' defense to get at least a minor coach-change bump this week, but it'll still be tough for Drew Brees to keep pace on the road against a much better defense while DeAndre Hopkins torches the Saints secondary.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) - Hey Philip, how do you feel about having to throw the ball to Stevie Johnson and undrafted friends these days?

Arizona Cardinals (-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers - You do know Blaine Gabbert is still playing in this one, right?

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) - For anyone who was asking themselves if Baltimore's season could get any worse before last weekend, be sure to go to confession this week.  Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett are out for the rest of this season to forget, but few things are more terrifying for the rest of the AFC than Ozzie Newsome with a ton of high draft picks, just sayin'.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  I even went 6 - 0 over the past two weeks, just enough to have too much confidence in this silly crapshoot.  For Week 12, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Panthers -1 over Cowboys
• Rams +9 over Bengals
• Browns -2.5 over Ravens

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 99 - 61
Against the Spread: 17 - 16

NFL Week 11 Picks

It's late - let's get to the picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) - Two mighty-balanced playoff contenders will square off this weekend in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer are both having themselves a season, but they'll have to get past two defenses that love pocket pressure and takeaways. I could see a shootout as easily as I could see another 10 - 6 slog. Despite their offensive woes last week, I still think the Bengals are fine, but it's very, very hard to win in Arizona these days, and I see Cincy taking another loss after a great 8 - 0 start.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - My brain is having a very, very hard time envisioning how the Packers could drop their fourth straight, and yet the odds are against them.  Aaron Rodgers' throwing shoulder is injured, Eddie Lacy/Richard Starks and the Packers' o-line are also banged up and slumping, and Green Bay just hasn't been good against big physical defenses like that of the Vikings.  Adrian Peterson always seems to take their lunch money when his team is hosting too.  It wouldn't surprise me that much to see Rodgers turn things around in a big divisional game, but I'm going with the more recent tea leaves.

Denver Broncos (-1) at Chicago Bears - I ended up eking out a good pick last week when I predicted Rex Ryan would have his revenge against his old Jets team that looked way better on paper.  Now John Fox gets to host the team that sent him packing this past offseason after he only took the Broncos to four straight division titles and playoff berths - one of those with Tim Tebow.  Honestly, benching Peyton Manning is likely an upgrade from Denver's performance to this point, so it won't make things any easier on the Bears.  But Chicago is starting to play well, and Fox knows how to poke holes in the defense he built himself.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7) - Down Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, Tom Brady has a bigger challenge than usual that long-time nemesis Rex Ryan will try to exploit to the best of his abilities.  As much as I love a good upset, picking against the Pats at home is a fruitless exercise 95% of the time.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskinks at Carolina Panthers (-7) - Welp Kirk Cousins, last weekend sure was fun for you.  But these Panthers are going to be a bit harder to dump of 40-yard screen passes on.  And Carolina looks like it'll get closer to that undefeated 15 - 1 season everyone's been dreaming about.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Miami Dolphins - Props to Tony Romo for a great tweet about his return to the field after the reeling Cowboys have dropped seven straight but are still somehow only three games back in the NFC East.  As much as we enjoy Romo derping around from time to time, he gives Dallas a whole new outlook on these last seven weeks.  The Dolphins could provide a nice opening act on the comeback tour.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) - I'm not sure what to think of the Falcons these days.  After starting the year 5 - 0, they've lost to three really bad teams and beat another one by just three points.  But they have a much higher ceiling in my mind than the Matt Hasselbeck-led Colts, and I have to think Dan Quinn/Kyle Shanahan were able to make some adjustments on the bye week to get both sides of the ball back on track.  Quinn certainly has a lot to atone for after that abysmal field goal call in San Francisco not too long ago.

New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans - People warned me of this day: I officially declare J.J. Watt annoying.  Between appearing in roughly every commercial ever and beefing with some of the lamest quarterbacks in the league like Andy Dalton and Zach Mettenberger, Watt has gone from folk-hero-non-QB-MVP-favorite to peak Biff Tannen pretty quickly.  In non-high school related reasons for going against the Texans, Houston is susceptible to the run and Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty familiar with this team, so I gotta go Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers - I might come to regret this one.  I have no good reason to do it, but I really want to pick the Chargers.  Despite the 2 - 7 record, Philip Rivers has one of the highest passer ratings in the league right now, and his team continues to lose by razor-thin margins that are largely the defense's fault.  But he'll have a total skeleton crew to throw to on Sunday with Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd out and that makes me a little too nervous to go for it.  Go Chiefs!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) - This week was karazee so I didn't get my picks out at their usually scheduled time on Thursday.  But let the Twitter record show that I picked Jacksonville without thinking very much about this terrible, terrible travesty of a matchup that happens twice a year for some reason.  And let's pretend that unmitigated sartorial disaster didn't happen either.

Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions (-1) - Um, Raiders?  They haz offense.

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) - Without a doubt, this has been the worst Ravens season in the Harbaugh-Flacco era.  But given that the opposing Rams had the pleasure of choosing between Nick Foles and Case Keenum under center this week, Baltimore's beleaguered defense might just catch a break.  Finally.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) - Between Jameis Winston and Mark Sanchez, the quarterback derp levels should be pretty high in this one.  The Eagles defense is good at cleaning up on derps though, so Philly it is.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) - Blaine Gabbert is going to lead an NFL offense on the road in Seattle.  That should give the Legion of Boom more confidence than they've had in a while.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing.  For Week 11, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cowboys -1 over Dolphins
• Panthers -7 over Redskinks
• Chiefs -3 over Chargers

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 91 - 55
Against the Spread: 14 - 16

NFL Week 10 Awards: Twilight Zone Edition

Every now and then, one of those weeks in the NFL come along that is so bizarre, it just becomes a mockery of common sense.  I mean, look at this bloodbath of picks on ESPN.  Anyway, in lieu of the normal awards format, here are all of the things that deserve the Twilight Zone Award for making this week so, so weird:

• The Lions Beat the Packers at Lambeau for the First Time Since 1991.

•  If You're Colorblind, the Jets Might Have Actually Won This Week.

•  If You Know Anything About Officiating, the Ravens Actually Won This Week.

• The Texans Turned Back the Clock to 2012 on Themselves and the Bungles, er, Bengals.

• Peyton Manning Managed to Both Break the All-Time Passing Yardage Record and Earn a QB Rating of Zero.

•  Kirk Cousins Managed a Perfect Passer Rating... But It Was Against the Saints.

• So long, Wolfman!

• Underdogs Went 10 - 4 This Week and Road Teams Went 11 - 3.

•  Patriots-Giants Proved We Still Have No Idea What a Catch Is.

•  Rhonda Rousey Is No Longer Unbeatable.

•  And Somehow, Mario Chalmers Has Won Over the People of Memphis in a Weekend After Doing This To Us in 2008.

• Full Disclosure: I could not bring myself to link to that terrible, terrible basketball event so I give you kittens instead.
  

NFL Week 10 Picks

The second half of the season is upon us, and I've got some serious catching up to do to chase my season-best picks record.  So without further adieu, a week of tentative guessing and a Hail Mary or two...

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-7) at New York Giants - Can the red-hot Patriots overcome the Giants who've been a thorn in their side since February 2008? That is the question for our Lady Blitz game of the week. I for one would love to see a sailing Eli Manning pass fall backwards into Odell Beckham's hands for the game-clinching score, but I'm going to be a chicken and pick the Patriots because, well, they should win this one. But I recommend the Giants look at game film from that wild Arkansas-Ole Miss rumble last weekend for inspiration.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5) - It's a vengeance week all around in the Meadowlands where Rex Ryan will return to face his old team in prime time tonight.  On paper, the Jets are the far better team and this constitutes my wildly misguided pick for the week.  But Rex knows this opponent and venue arguably better than even Todd Bowles at this point, and I think he'll throw in the kitchen sink if it means walking out with a literal and moral victory.  Just a hunch.

Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders (-3) - These Raiders... these Raiders are, um, fun to watch.  Like seriously.  Like I want them to take the AFC South's spot in the playoffs.  And the Vikings continue to impress with a surprising 6 - 2 start.  In the end, I like Oakland at home getting it done with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, assuming Coop plays.  If not, Minnesota's got a great shot and keeping this one close enough and in the mud.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3) - This is a huge game for two division rivals that might be competing for one playoff spot when all is said and done.  They're both coming off of a bye too, which means more rest, more preparation, and a razor-thin margin for error.  It's hard to bet against the Seahawks at home, but with two weeks to scheme, I like Bruce Arians over Pete Carroll.  #secondwildlymisguidedpick

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Carolina Panthers (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans - This week marks Marcus Mariota's third matchup against a former Heisman QB this season.  I expect it to be a low-scoring affair between two solid defenses, but the Panthers should eventually overpower the Titans with experience, balance and everything going their way these days.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-7.5) - So the Bears are officially better than I thought.  They have yet to win a game by more than three points, but they've been in it to the end for the past five weeks.  Still, given how hard the Rams are to beat at home and how they should benefit from Chicago's generous defense, I like St. Louis in this one.

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - The Dan Campbell honeymoon is officially over while the Eagles have been eyeing the top seed in the NFC East.  I still don't think Philly is all that reliable week-to-week, but with Ryan Mathews making a strong case to be the lead back and Sam Bradford looking vaguely alive, the Eagles could still turn the corner big time here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6.5) - I reckon the Chiefs felt a ray of hope watching the Broncos notch their first loss of the season Sunday night. The Colts were able to find some offense with their scrambling quarterback and a bigger commitment to the ground game - two things Kansas City does pretty well on offense.  I think they'll need another sub-par game from Manning to have a shot in the fourth, but it's possible.  Still, beating the Broncos at Mile High is no easy task and one the Chiefs haven't accomplished since Tim Tebow was under center.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11.5) - The Packers might not look like world-beaters after two tough losses in as many weeks, but to paraphrase the most charming tourism video of all time, at least they're not Detroit.  They're not Detroit!

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) - I wish someone would actually release a Kraken off the gulf coast of Florida to drag Greg Hardy and Jameis Winston into the sea, never to be heard from again.  Looking at you, Liam Neeson.  Until that day, we must sit idly and attempt to predict how many times groups of grown men will transport an oblong ball across a painted line during a 60-minute time frame.  I would like for Dez Bryant and Darren McFadden to do that thing.

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Redskinks - Rob Ryan has turned Drew Brees into Sisyphus, and it's real sad.  They can still beat the Redskinks with some interception generosity from Kirk Cousins, but that doesn't mean I didn't pick the guy up on waivers for my fantasy team this weekend.  Hater or realist?

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) - Even though he was a Saints-killer for so many years, I love DeAngelo Williams and have been thrilled to see him mow down everything in sight as the next man up on the Steelers roster.  Expect him to build on his Comeback of the Year resume against the Browns' woeful run defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) - Don't we all kind of want to see the Jaguars go to the playoffs at 6 - 10?  The Ravens coming off of their bye at home probably won't help, but imagine the levels of acid reflux in those NFL and network executive suites if this becomes a real possibility.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) - In an effort to make this Monday night game remotely interesting, remember that the Texans have crushed the Bengals' dreams of winning a playoff game twice in the past four years.  It's just the kind of thing Cincy could fall for during an unbelievable 8 - 0 run... But these aren't those Texans and those aren't these Bengals.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing.  Also, I am the expendable income kiss of death. For Week 10, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Panthers -5.5 over Titans
• Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos
• Bears +7.5 over Rams

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 86 - 46
Against the Spread: 11 - 16

NFL Week 9 Awards

It's time to bestow fake hardware to the winners and losers of Week 9!

The "No More" Means "Not Really" Award: Jerry Jones
I should preface this by saying that the photos and police files released by Deadspin last week don't really tell us anything new about Greg Hardy.  He was already found guilty of domestic assault in a court of law and has done nothing since that time to refute that he's a garbage human being.  The Dallas Cowboys knew all of this when they signed him to a one-year deal this season, and they've spun all kinds of doublespeak about Hardy's leadership abilities and chance at redemption-- because having your record expunged for paying off the victim and getting paid to sit out last season clearly weren't enough.  The only thing that you might find surprising about all of this is that it's not surprising at all.  Athletically, Hardy is still in his prime and fills a simple need for a team that is thin at defensive line.  That's the only calculus Jerry Jones needs to keep him on the payroll and say "so what?" with a straight face.  So for all of the NFL's barking about "No More" and real accountability on issues of domestic violence, there is no bite for one of the most powerful owners in the business.  Most tellingly, the Cowboys staff spent their energies getting Hardy a getaway car after Sunday night's game rather than preparing him to answer to the public.  They know there's no intellectually honest way to address his presence on the team without also acknowledging their implicit support of an abuser without remorse, plain and simple.

The Preemptive Dolphins Cautionary Tale Award: Mike Mularkey, Blaine Gabbert (tie)
There were some pretty decent upsets this weekend coming from the Colts, Titans and 49ers. One highly reductive thing they all had in common? A big change under center or under the headset going into this week. After a very underwhelming start to the season, Indianapolis ousted offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton in favor of Rob Chudzinski. The Titans fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt and put OC Mike Mularkey in charge in the interim. And perhaps most surprisingly, the 49ers benched QB Colin Kaepernick--who was an errant pass away from a second Super Bowl appearance just two years ago--for Blaine Gabbert, who had a 5 - 22 career record before stunning the Falcons on Sunday. We’ll only know whether this was a legitimate turning point for any of these teams after the regular season’s over, but there’s always the temptation to put a little too much stock in an unexpected win after a big change. Just ask Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell - after Miami mowed down the lowly Titans and Texans with ease, there were four glorious days of playoff talk before this team feel swiftly back to earth in Foxboro and kept on plummeting in Buffalo. So who’s showing true signs of life and who’s getting a fleeting bump of novelty? I like Indy’s chances best. Dismantling the league’s best defense on Sunday was a huge shot in the arm, and Rob Chudzinski has worked small offensive miracles before in Carolina and Cleveland. But beware of the Titans’ and 49ers’ change in fortunes. Mike Mularkey’s debut coincided with the Titans playing the league’s very worst defense and getting Marcus Mariota back from injury. The 49ers’ win had as much to do with the Falcons making a terrible decision to kick a field goal trailing by four late in the game as it did with Blaine Gabbert not totally screwing up. The guy only had 185 yards and 15 completions on the day anyhow. So consider this hot take… extinguished. Yyyyyeeeaaaggghhh!

The Crown of Smugness Award: Carolina Panthers
Okay, okay - I also bestowed this award so that I could gloat about getting the Panthers-Packers game right this past weekend. It hasn’t been the best season for my picks, so I’ll take the small wins where I can get ‘em! But the Panthers are absolutely for real, and they should have walked out of that locker room with crowns of smugness aglow after another big win against the NFC’s top brass this past weekend. Carolina is one of only three undefeated teams left halfway through the season, and this resume is far more impressive than the Pats or the Bengals. In consecutive weeks, they’ve beaten four legitimate playoff contenders including Seattle on the road, the Colts in overtime and the Packers, who looked way worse on Sunday than the final score suggested. Despite having a highly questionable offensive line and receiving corps going into the season, Cam Newton has put this team on his back with ease to match Ron Rivera’s ultra-dependable defense. They’re well-rounded, endlessly tenacious and right now, they aren’t scared of playing anyone. Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch, anyone? This time with fewer numerals, plz!