Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Two highly entertaining division rivals will air it out with big playoff implications in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I've gone back and forth on what will happen in this one. Both teams are peaking at the right time and have the offensive chops to win in a shootout. As dangerous as the Steelers are these days, I still like Cincy's defense better - Pittsburgh's secondary could have a long day against Andy Dalton during his career-best season.
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) - The Vikings showed some serious cracks in that 38 - 7 drubbing at home last weekend. Things won't get much easier going to Arizona on a short week, but maybe the Seattle wakeup call and the promise of a wild card spot will keep Minnesota in the game against the high-flying Cardinals. I think the Cardinals are just too good for them to pull it off in these circumstances, but with two winnable games up next against the Bears and Giants, the Vikings have a good chance of making it to January regardless.
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles - These two teams' records are the definition of mediocre, but this could be a fun one. A real fun one. You've got LeSean McCoy looking for vengeance against his former coach and the Bills' big-play offense against the Eagles' big-play defense and special teams group that lit up the Patriots last week. I'm banking on Buffalo winning the turnover battle and exploiting Philly's run defense to eke out a win here.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (PK) - I'm not sure anyone--much less the hapless and snakebit Lions--can really recover from a gut punch like the one Aaron Rodgers delivered on an untimed down last week. Given that my fantasy opponent had both Rodgerses, I haven't really recovered yet either. But Detroit played well enough to win then and have gotten better than their record suggests in the second half of the season. I definitely can't say that for the Rams.
Washington Redskinks at Chicago Bears (-3) - How's this for a vote of confidence? The Redskinks are 1 - 5 on the road this season while the Bears are 0 - 5 at home. It's gross, but this is still a big game for Washington in an NFC (L)East title that will almost certainly be up for grabs into Week 17. Even though the Redskinks will be playing with desperation, I am legally obligated to acknowledge that Jay Cutler hasn't been that bad this year and Chicago's defense is getting better as the season goes on.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - So for those of you waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Panthers' undefeated season, they get the Falcons twice, the Buccaneers and the Giants in their final four weeks. It is real unless Eli Manning can conjure up some of that devil magic that turned the Patriots into an 18 - 1 team many moons ago. Atlanta has continued to nose dive after another heartbreaking loss to the Bucs last weekend. I don't think they'll be getting in the way of Luke Kuechly and friends this week either.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-7.5) - It feels like the torch will be passed sooner than later in this rivalry. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have looked every bit like franchise stars while the Broncos will have a lot of veteran talent to replace in the coming years. Nevertheless, Denver's defense has a tight grip on that torch going into 2016.
New England Patriots (-3) at Houston Texans - Tom Brady vs. J.J. Watt? I reckon the CBS graphics team has had no problem finding creative inspiration for this Photoshop project. The Patriots haven't looked good lately for understandable reasons, but I just can't see them dropping a third straight game against a Texans team they've beaten handily more times than not.
New York Giants (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins - If you like sloppy shootouts, this could be just the game for you! Eli Manning will be trying to get the ball to Odell Beckham instead of Brent Grimes, likely with mixed results. Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker will work on exploiting the many holes in New York's secondary, likely with mixed results. My best guess is the Giants will make it as hard as possible on themselves to win their terrible division.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5) - At this point, the Browns should just write a "will they? won't they?" rom-com starring Doug Pettine and Johnny Manziel. This week, Manziel is in the "they will" column to start against the 49ers. Blaine Gabbert's 49ers. My point is, this is going to be a really bad game, and I guess I'll pick the dang 49ers because someone has to win.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) - This is just the kind of game that the Saints will end up winning so that they can inevitably fall out of a top ten draft pick. On the other hand, I'm still not planning to cheer for Jameis Winston anytime soon.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7) - I could go into your standard points/yards stats or fancier stuff like defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA) to make a pick here, but that would ignore a key fact. Ryan Fitzpatrick got his mojo back after shaving that bird's nest on his jaw, and the Jets have gone 2 - 0 since then.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) - At the beginning of this season, it was inconceivable (Inconceivable!) that the Jaguars would be favored over the Colts. A lot of that has to do with Andrew Luck's absence, but Jacksonville has really turned the corner too with a great sophomore season for Blake Bortles. I sat on this one for a while, but I think Bortles is playing well enough to edge out a banged up Matt Hasselbeck and a very inconsistent Colts defense.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) - So the Chargers are pretty bad these days. All injuries and no defense makes Philip Rivers a sad, sad man. That probably won't change against a Chiefs team that has been a juggernaut after starting the year 1 - 5. Holy crap.
Seattle Seahawks (-9) at Baltimore Ravens - It's hard to keep coming up with interesting things to say about Matt Schaub's penchant for throwing touchdowns to the other guys on my own. So I'll leave you with this nugget: if Schaub throws a pick six against the opportunistic Seahawks defense this weekend, he will have had two four-game pick six streaks in his career. Apparently that's 4,000 times harder to do than get struck by lightning.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7) - Love him or hate him, the NFL is much worse off without Tony Romo on the field. From the outset of the season, this game promised to be an electrifying grudge match between two great NFC teams with scores to settle after that whole Dez Bryant un-catch last January. Instead, we'll have to see if Dallas's defense can keep them in this one through the third quarter and if Matt Cassel might manage to throw for more than three yards downfield. It's doubtful, even against the questionable Packers.
Lovely Lady Locks
I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 14, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Raiders +7.5 over Broncos
- Patriots -3 over Texans
- Buccaneers -3.5 over Saints
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 121 - 71
Against the Spread: 19 - 20
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