Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (PK) - What a coin flip and what a high-stakes game for the NFC. I think I'll make it our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. If I'm arguing the Vikings' case, they have just the kind of defensive front to take full advantage of the Seahawks' shoddy offensive line. Take away Jimmy Graham as a fairly dependable third-down option, and it could be a long day for Russell Wilson. If I'm arguing the Seahawks' case, they won't have to sweat too much over Teddy Bridgewater's passing attack and could load up the box on Adrian Peterson. Graham's injury might actually be addition by subtraction since he was never the kind of power running blocker that Seattle's offense was built on in years prior. Imagine what kind of punditry we'll get to suffer through next week if that's the case! In a squeaker, I'm going Seahawks.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions - What a difference a month makes for the NFC North! The Vikings currently have a one-game lead over the formerly 6 - 0 Packers. And Green Bay’s 1 - 4 slide in November has somehow opened the door for the Bears and Lions, who were winless until Weeks 4 and 6 respectively. Detroit already stunned Green Bay as a double-digit underdog in Lambeau, so the question here is whether both of these teams will continue on their current trajectories or return to the natural order of things that we’ve been used to for so long. I guess nothing would surprise me these days about the Packers, but I imagine they're viewing this as a desperation game, and that's a dangerous place to defend from if you're the Lions.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders - It wasn't a marquee game, but you might have missed a fun undercard last week when Derek Carr stole one from the Titans on a last-minute touchdown pass. If the Chiefs let Carr air it out like they did with Tyrod Taylor last Sunday, Oakland has a solid shot of beating this surging wild card contender. But there just aren't many teams playing better than Kansas City right now. Sit back and enjoy it.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) - Did you know Matt Hasselbeck is 4 - 0 as an Indianapolis Colt? He's had some quietly good stuff in his late career, and Pittsburgh's pass defense isn't exactly a steel curtain these days. But in a potential prime time shootout at Heinz Field, give me Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Markus Wheaton any day over just about any other receiving corps in the NFL.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
New York Jets (-2) "at" New York Giants - It's a rare intra-Meadowlands fiesta next Sunday when the Giants "host" the Jets. The Giants are the kind of team that can force you to give up gambling if that's your thing. One week, they're lighting an opponent up. The next, they're getting embarrassed in every conceivable way. So I imagine they will win this one since I picked the Jets. If Darrelle Revis sits again with a concussion, that would certainly open things up for Odell Beckham, which is always bad news for a defense.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) - If the Seahawks lose on Sunday, one of these two teams could take their wild card spot, at least temporarily. The NFL is a weird, weird place. I still have no idea what's going on with the Falcons right now, so I'm going with a Bucs team that has been fighting much harder over the past month.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3) - So the Texans are kind of something these days, eh? They've returned to shutdown form on defense, and DeAndre Hopkins is torching every corner in his path. That could be bad news for a Bills team that let Jeremy Maclin run wild on them last week. Nonetheless, Buffalo is getting a midseason boost from playmakers of its own that can spread the field and keep J.J. Watt and friends guessing on the option. I'm hoping Greg Roman is smart enough to dust off the old 49ers playbook and stifle a very hot Houston team.
Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers - Brock on, everybody! Denver definitely got some lucky breaks in snuffing out the Patriots' winning streak last week, but they're still a very good team with a quarterback who can throw with velocity. Young Osweiler's performance to date hasn't been spectacular, but he should get better with more reps, less snow, and a Demaryius Thomas outing that doesn't feature 11 drops this week. The banged up Chargers offense should struggle against Orange Crush 2.0.
Carolina Panthers (-7) at New Orleans Saints - The irrational fan part of me hopes the Saints can put an end to the Panthers' undefeated season. They've done it twice against the Falcons recently, and even when they look terrible against bad teams, they often put up a pretty good fight against their better competition. But the Superdome just doesn't have the homefield advantage that it used to, and Cam Newton isn't the sack/turnover-prone quarterback he used to be either. I hope this double un-jinx hex works!
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-9.5) - No Edelman, Lewis or Gronk makes Tom a dull boy. Ironically, this could end up working out in the Patriots' favor come January since they should be able to return at least two of those receiving threats to full health for the playoffs. But New England has done more with less before - that's a lot more than we can say about the Eagles these days.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) - If the Seahawks lose on Sunday, one of these two teams could take their wild card spot, at least temporarily. The NFL is a weird, weird place. I still have no idea what's going on with the Falcons right now, so I'm going with a Bucs team that has been fighting much harder over the past month.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3) - So the Texans are kind of something these days, eh? They've returned to shutdown form on defense, and DeAndre Hopkins is torching every corner in his path. That could be bad news for a Bills team that let Jeremy Maclin run wild on them last week. Nonetheless, Buffalo is getting a midseason boost from playmakers of its own that can spread the field and keep J.J. Watt and friends guessing on the option. I'm hoping Greg Roman is smart enough to dust off the old 49ers playbook and stifle a very hot Houston team.
Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers - Brock on, everybody! Denver definitely got some lucky breaks in snuffing out the Patriots' winning streak last week, but they're still a very good team with a quarterback who can throw with velocity. Young Osweiler's performance to date hasn't been spectacular, but he should get better with more reps, less snow, and a Demaryius Thomas outing that doesn't feature 11 drops this week. The banged up Chargers offense should struggle against Orange Crush 2.0.
Carolina Panthers (-7) at New Orleans Saints - The irrational fan part of me hopes the Saints can put an end to the Panthers' undefeated season. They've done it twice against the Falcons recently, and even when they look terrible against bad teams, they often put up a pretty good fight against their better competition. But the Superdome just doesn't have the homefield advantage that it used to, and Cam Newton isn't the sack/turnover-prone quarterback he used to be either. I hope this double un-jinx hex works!
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-9.5) - No Edelman, Lewis or Gronk makes Tom a dull boy. Ironically, this could end up working out in the Patriots' favor come January since they should be able to return at least two of those receiving threats to full health for the playoffs. But New England has done more with less before - that's a lot more than we can say about the Eagles these days.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4) - Fact: Matt Schaub has now thrown a pix six in five of his last eight games. That's insane. Maybe Brent Grimes will take note this week since the Dolphins need to take any help they can get putting points on the board.
Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams - Despite the Rams’ continued quarterback woes, this has the undercurrent of a trap game for the mighty Cardinals. Maybe it’s the warehouse lighting or the OSHA-questionable concrete floors, but it can be hard for even good teams to win in St. Louis at times; in fact, Arizona has already dropped one to the Rams this year. Nevertheless, the Cardinals should be more than prepared for Todd Gurley this time around, and their offense can afford to make a couple more mistakes than that of St. Louis.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - Ugh. Didn’t we just go through this flaming garbage pile matchup two weeks ago? Might as well rip the whole band-aid off. The Jaguars are certainly an easier contender than the Raiders were for the Titans, but Blake Bortles really isn’t that bad in his second year. Really.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7) - I'm starting to think the Bears will be real contenders next year. Cutler is playing some of the best football of his career, and John Fox continues to add to his turnaround resume as a coach each week. Add to that the matchup between Chicago's running back tandem and the 49ers' abysmal defense on the ground, and the Bears should have this one in the bag.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskinks (-4) - For those of you still waiting on when Matt Cassel's comeback tour will start, let me know how eternity is some day.
Lovely Lady Locks
I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 13, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Chiefs -3 over Raiders
- Bears -7 over 49ers
- Redskinks -4 over Cowboys
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 109 - 67
Against the Spread: 18 - 18
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