Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos - Rex and Eli might have given the Patriots a scare, but this Lady Blitz Game of the Week may mark one of the last real threats this 10 - 0 team has left on the schedule. We won't get the annual Manning-Brady Bowl--which sadly we may have already seen the last of--but we will get one of the very best offenses facing one of the very best defenses in the league this year. Given the attrition in Brady's arsenal and the defensive wrinkles the Bills threw at this team on Monday night, the Broncos have as good a shot as any of keeping this game within reach. They'll need good judgment from Brock Osweiler and a heavy dose of Ronnie Hillman to do it. But I've gone Pats for ten straight weeks and gotten ten straight wins out of it. It ain't broke, and I'm not fixing it.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - Now onto our second marquee matchup with an undefeated team. The Panthers would probably rather face the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys than the Tony Romo-led version, especially since this will be Romo's first home game since returning from a broken collarbone. Despite the momentum talk for Dallas though, Carolina has looked simply spectacular on both sides of the ball for the past month - I'm not fixing this one either.
New York Giants (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - Sadly, this 5-5 Giants / 4-6 Redskinks battle for first place in the NFC East constitutes the next closest thing to a barn-burner this weekend, though there are some decent enough games below to sip eggnog over while trying not to say anything inappropriate to Aunt Sally. There's a first time for everything on any given Sunday, but please note that Kirk Cousins has two touchdowns to eight interceptions and a passer rating of 48.6 all-time against the Giants. I think the G-Men give themselves a little bit more cushion in this always-weird division... at least that's what they want me to think.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4) - Seattle's defense hasn't been quite as vaunted these days as we've come to expect, so this game could be more fun that it ought to be. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant will certainly try to keep doing Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant things while the Seahawks will try to run their show through the ascendant Thomas Rawls on the ground. If Rawls can unleash Beast Mode 2.0, I like the 'Hawks getting back to form in time for the playoffs... perhaps.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Get your Bloody Mary revving for the first game of a busy Thanksgiving slate. It could be pretty sloppy and low-scoring, but what else are you going to watch? I'm not feeling great about either of these teams - the Eagles are back to dinking and dunking with the fairly inaccurate Sam Bradford, and he won't have Ryan Mathews or Zach Ertz to help carry the load. The Lions are in nothing-to-lose mode after axing most of the front office a few weeks back. So I'm going with the home team - they don't deserve to be embarrassed every Thanksgiving, right?
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) - So you're telling me Aaron Rodgers is still a thing? Okay then.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - I want a refund on the flowers I sent to the Chiefs' funeral last month when Jamaal Charles went down for the season. Don't get me wrong, Charles is a rare talent that this team would give anything to have healthy should they make it to the playoffs, but they are playing their best football right now. KC has held its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns, and between Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, they are getting plenty done on offense. I just can't see the sputtering Bills' offense having much luck at Arrowhead on Sunday.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) - So you're telling me Aaron Rodgers is still a thing? Okay then.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - I want a refund on the flowers I sent to the Chiefs' funeral last month when Jamaal Charles went down for the season. Don't get me wrong, Charles is a rare talent that this team would give anything to have healthy should they make it to the playoffs, but they are playing their best football right now. KC has held its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns, and between Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, they are getting plenty done on offense. I just can't see the sputtering Bills' offense having much luck at Arrowhead on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1) - It's been a tale of two seasons for the Falcons. After starting out 5 - 0, they've had a miserable 1 - 4 slide against some downright terrible teams. I don't really know what's going on with these guys, but given how their offense has struggled lately, they could have a hard time getting back on track against a solid Vikings defense. I gotta go with the more consistent team on this one - a win for Minnesota here would be big for their playoff cushion.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - It's been a tough couple of weeks for the Bengals, and if Cincy fans should have any reason for heartburn this week--other than that curiously famous chili--it's that the Rams have a very tough defense like those of the Cardinals and Texans. What the Rams don't have though, is a solid option at quarterback. It's sad on multiple levels that St. Louis felt better about leaving a clearly concussed Case Keenum in the game last week rather than send in Nick Foles, who's started in professional football games. Very recently. So I think the Bengals will get back on track with this one at home and not in prime time.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5) - Here's a coin-flipper that might be a last gasp for a wild card for one of these division rivals. I don't like having to pick this one because so much depends on which versions of these two teams show up. They've both looked like well-rounded contenders at times and like mistake-riddled also-rans other times. So maybe the Jets can turn things back around at home this week with more commitment to the ground game and better pressure in the pocket on defense.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - It's been a tough couple of weeks for the Bengals, and if Cincy fans should have any reason for heartburn this week--other than that curiously famous chili--it's that the Rams have a very tough defense like those of the Cardinals and Texans. What the Rams don't have though, is a solid option at quarterback. It's sad on multiple levels that St. Louis felt better about leaving a clearly concussed Case Keenum in the game last week rather than send in Nick Foles, who's started in professional football games. Very recently. So I think the Bengals will get back on track with this one at home and not in prime time.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5) - Here's a coin-flipper that might be a last gasp for a wild card for one of these division rivals. I don't like having to pick this one because so much depends on which versions of these two teams show up. They've both looked like well-rounded contenders at times and like mistake-riddled also-rans other times. So maybe the Jets can turn things back around at home this week with more commitment to the ground game and better pressure in the pocket on defense.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Oakland Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans - If the current weather forecast for Sunday holds, this could be an old-school smashmouth football game in the mud. That could definitely favor the Titans' defense, assuming they can run the ball effectively enough too. By the way, Tennessee hasn't won a game at home since October of last year - any home fans braving the elements deserve a small but real victory, right?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Colts have been surprisingly steady in Matt Hasselbeck's care this year. And truthfully, Hasselbeck's play has not slipped all that much even though he's been relegated to a backup role these past few years. Although the Buccaneers have looked better lately, I'm going to check my ageism and hope Indy keeps getting it done.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3) - I'm done jinxing the Saints for now. I expect New Orleans' defense to get at least a minor coach-change bump this week, but it'll still be tough for Drew Brees to keep pace on the road against a much better defense while DeAndre Hopkins torches the Saints secondary.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) - Hey Philip, how do you feel about having to throw the ball to Stevie Johnson and undrafted friends these days?
Arizona Cardinals (-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers - You do know Blaine Gabbert is still playing in this one, right?
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) - For anyone who was asking themselves if Baltimore's season could get any worse before last weekend, be sure to go to confession this week. Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett are out for the rest of this season to forget, but few things are more terrifying for the rest of the AFC than Ozzie Newsome with a ton of high draft picks, just sayin'.
Lovely Lady Locks
I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. I even went 6 - 0 over the past two weeks, just enough to have too much confidence in this silly crapshoot. For Week 12, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Panthers -1 over Cowboys
- Rams +9 over Bengals
- Browns -2.5 over Ravens
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 99 - 61
Against the Spread: 17 - 16
No comments:
Post a Comment