NFL Week 11 Picks

It's late - let's get to the picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) - Two mighty-balanced playoff contenders will square off this weekend in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer are both having themselves a season, but they'll have to get past two defenses that love pocket pressure and takeaways. I could see a shootout as easily as I could see another 10 - 6 slog. Despite their offensive woes last week, I still think the Bengals are fine, but it's very, very hard to win in Arizona these days, and I see Cincy taking another loss after a great 8 - 0 start.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - My brain is having a very, very hard time envisioning how the Packers could drop their fourth straight, and yet the odds are against them.  Aaron Rodgers' throwing shoulder is injured, Eddie Lacy/Richard Starks and the Packers' o-line are also banged up and slumping, and Green Bay just hasn't been good against big physical defenses like that of the Vikings.  Adrian Peterson always seems to take their lunch money when his team is hosting too.  It wouldn't surprise me that much to see Rodgers turn things around in a big divisional game, but I'm going with the more recent tea leaves.

Denver Broncos (-1) at Chicago Bears - I ended up eking out a good pick last week when I predicted Rex Ryan would have his revenge against his old Jets team that looked way better on paper.  Now John Fox gets to host the team that sent him packing this past offseason after he only took the Broncos to four straight division titles and playoff berths - one of those with Tim Tebow.  Honestly, benching Peyton Manning is likely an upgrade from Denver's performance to this point, so it won't make things any easier on the Bears.  But Chicago is starting to play well, and Fox knows how to poke holes in the defense he built himself.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7) - Down Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, Tom Brady has a bigger challenge than usual that long-time nemesis Rex Ryan will try to exploit to the best of his abilities.  As much as I love a good upset, picking against the Pats at home is a fruitless exercise 95% of the time.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskinks at Carolina Panthers (-7) - Welp Kirk Cousins, last weekend sure was fun for you.  But these Panthers are going to be a bit harder to dump of 40-yard screen passes on.  And Carolina looks like it'll get closer to that undefeated 15 - 1 season everyone's been dreaming about.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Miami Dolphins - Props to Tony Romo for a great tweet about his return to the field after the reeling Cowboys have dropped seven straight but are still somehow only three games back in the NFC East.  As much as we enjoy Romo derping around from time to time, he gives Dallas a whole new outlook on these last seven weeks.  The Dolphins could provide a nice opening act on the comeback tour.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) - I'm not sure what to think of the Falcons these days.  After starting the year 5 - 0, they've lost to three really bad teams and beat another one by just three points.  But they have a much higher ceiling in my mind than the Matt Hasselbeck-led Colts, and I have to think Dan Quinn/Kyle Shanahan were able to make some adjustments on the bye week to get both sides of the ball back on track.  Quinn certainly has a lot to atone for after that abysmal field goal call in San Francisco not too long ago.

New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans - People warned me of this day: I officially declare J.J. Watt annoying.  Between appearing in roughly every commercial ever and beefing with some of the lamest quarterbacks in the league like Andy Dalton and Zach Mettenberger, Watt has gone from folk-hero-non-QB-MVP-favorite to peak Biff Tannen pretty quickly.  In non-high school related reasons for going against the Texans, Houston is susceptible to the run and Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty familiar with this team, so I gotta go Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers - I might come to regret this one.  I have no good reason to do it, but I really want to pick the Chargers.  Despite the 2 - 7 record, Philip Rivers has one of the highest passer ratings in the league right now, and his team continues to lose by razor-thin margins that are largely the defense's fault.  But he'll have a total skeleton crew to throw to on Sunday with Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd out and that makes me a little too nervous to go for it.  Go Chiefs!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) - This week was karazee so I didn't get my picks out at their usually scheduled time on Thursday.  But let the Twitter record show that I picked Jacksonville without thinking very much about this terrible, terrible travesty of a matchup that happens twice a year for some reason.  And let's pretend that unmitigated sartorial disaster didn't happen either.

Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions (-1) - Um, Raiders?  They haz offense.

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) - Without a doubt, this has been the worst Ravens season in the Harbaugh-Flacco era.  But given that the opposing Rams had the pleasure of choosing between Nick Foles and Case Keenum under center this week, Baltimore's beleaguered defense might just catch a break.  Finally.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) - Between Jameis Winston and Mark Sanchez, the quarterback derp levels should be pretty high in this one.  The Eagles defense is good at cleaning up on derps though, so Philly it is.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) - Blaine Gabbert is going to lead an NFL offense on the road in Seattle.  That should give the Legion of Boom more confidence than they've had in a while.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing.  For Week 11, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cowboys -1 over Dolphins
• Panthers -7 over Redskinks
• Chiefs -3 over Chargers

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 91 - 55
Against the Spread: 14 - 16