Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) - These two playoff-bound NFC teams might just give us a January preview in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! There's a lot to love here, especially two Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks squaring off and the Cardinals vying for a first-round bye and the chance to rest their starters next week if they win. You can never quite count out the Packers on the strength of Aaron Rodgers, and he should have more elbow room now that Tyrann Mathieu is sadly out for the season. Still, I like the balance and depth Arizona has all over its roster and that sneaky-good homefield advantage.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5) - Next up, we have another big battle for the bye between two playoff-bound AFC teams. It's a shame this one will be managed by two backup quarterbacks, but at least that'll give both of these great defenses a chance to shine. Given that Andy Dalton won't have another chance to wilt under the prime time lights, the Bengals have a decent shot at pulling off the win. But I worry about Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill being able to carry the load on offense against the Broncos' front seven, so I'm going Denver.
Washington Redskinks at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - It's weird to see things actually kind of work out in Washington the way that Jay Gruden wanted. He threw RG3 to the wolves in the preseason and demoted him to safety on the practice squad, put in Kirk "more interceptions than touchdowns" Cousins full time, and got this team to 0.500, which is seemingly always enough to win first place in the NFC East. The Redskinks should probably win this weekend. Cousins has gotten better and better while the Eagles have been mired in mediocrity, never winning more than two games in a row this season. But Washington has an ugly 1 - 5 record on the road, and will probably find some way to blow this.
New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets - A win for the Pats this weekend would give them homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to go with the bye week they've already secured. The Jets have proven that they're no slouches during their first year with Todd Bowles, so I'm hoping this is at least more exciting than most games involving the hellbent Patriots this season. Nevertheless, when Gronk on the field and Darrelle Revis at less than peak performance, New England's #1 seed feels like a foregone conclusion.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations5
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-5.5) - Last weekend, the Rams and Chargers both won resoundingly in what could be the last games they'll ever play in their respective home stadiums. Now San Diego looks to return the favor for their possible 2016 arena-mates in what could be a very weird and awkward game. I reckon this very good Raiders team with exciting budding stars will do their best to give the Black Hole a proper send off on Christmas Eve. I'll be rooting for 'em.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6) - These teams are both out of the running for the playoffs, so this game might be total crap. Even the Memphis area has stopped airing Cowboys games as of late, which tells you something. So with Kellen Moore trying to protect a cushy backup job and the Bills shuffling lots of players onto injured reserve, nothing is guaranteed in this one. I guess I figure if they were trying to play a normal game, Buffalo would eke out just enough offense against Dallas's overlooked but solid defense to give the home crowd another reason to slam each other into tables with glee.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Although this season is shot, you could see why fans of these two teams have some optimism going into 2016. Jay Cutler has had a really nice year after getting many a healthy scratch for Jimmy Clausen a year ago, Jeremy Langford looks like the next answer if Matt Forte leaves in free agency, and John Fox has molded the Bears defense into something kind of respectable. Meanwhile, after a few rough rookie starts, the Bucs' Jameis Winston has started playing to his #1 overall potential, and Doug Martin is balling like it's 2012. Speaking of Martin, Chicago's run defense leaves something to be desired, and I think that should open things up for the Buccaneers offense in a way they just couldn't do against those stingy Rams last week.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6) - These teams are both out of the running for the playoffs, so this game might be total crap. Even the Memphis area has stopped airing Cowboys games as of late, which tells you something. So with Kellen Moore trying to protect a cushy backup job and the Bills shuffling lots of players onto injured reserve, nothing is guaranteed in this one. I guess I figure if they were trying to play a normal game, Buffalo would eke out just enough offense against Dallas's overlooked but solid defense to give the home crowd another reason to slam each other into tables with glee.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Although this season is shot, you could see why fans of these two teams have some optimism going into 2016. Jay Cutler has had a really nice year after getting many a healthy scratch for Jimmy Clausen a year ago, Jeremy Langford looks like the next answer if Matt Forte leaves in free agency, and John Fox has molded the Bears defense into something kind of respectable. Meanwhile, after a few rough rookie starts, the Bucs' Jameis Winston has started playing to his #1 overall potential, and Doug Martin is balling like it's 2012. Speaking of Martin, Chicago's run defense leaves something to be desired, and I think that should open things up for the Buccaneers offense in a way they just couldn't do against those stingy Rams last week.
Carolina Panthers (-7) at Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are essentially playing for pride in this one, but trying to topple your division rival that is two games away from a perfect season is a pretty good reason to play for pride. I feel conflicted as a Saints fan about what would be the better outcome, especially since Atlanta hasn't technically been eliminated from the playoffs yet. But the very obvious smart bet is to go with the 14 - 0 team that has been steamrolling defenses for the past two months instead of the one that just won its first game since November 1st.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) - The Rams have been Seahawks killers (and NFC West killers in general) ever since Jeff Fisher took the helm. It's been kind of fun during an otherwise lackluster tenure to see David wing a stone here and there at perennial Super Bowl favorites in the 49ers and then the Seahawks. Still, who wants to play Seattle right now, even the Panthers? Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have been on fire - enough to make us forget about Jimmy Graham and the Legion of Boom for a while.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) - The Rams have been Seahawks killers (and NFC West killers in general) ever since Jeff Fisher took the helm. It's been kind of fun during an otherwise lackluster tenure to see David wing a stone here and there at perennial Super Bowl favorites in the 49ers and then the Seahawks. Still, who wants to play Seattle right now, even the Panthers? Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have been on fire - enough to make us forget about Jimmy Graham and the Legion of Boom for a while.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4.5) - Holy guac, the Texans are really going to pull this off. Too bad they won't have the chance to ruin the Bengals' postseason until the divisional round this year, which they probably won't get to. But for DeAndre Hopkins alone, let's just enjoy another weird, weird year in the AFC South.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-11) - Hey, the Chiefs are really good! Yay!
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) - And now comes the part of the blog where I'm just trying to get out of here and go do Christmas Eve things. It is not well thought out. It is entirely based on a quick glance at the long list of Dolphins receivers and backs who are questionable right now - the Colts defense can surely beat somebody if they're dragging an ankle, right?
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-9.5) - I reckon the Lions will win this one. PM me if you think of anything more interesting to say about this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Baltimore Ravens - Oh how the mighty rivalry has fallen. The Ravens are already golfing in Maui in their minds, so expect their secondary to go to sleep against arguably the best passing corps in the league right now. Who says it's too early for some New Year's fireworks?
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - I'm trying to find the words to express to you how stupid it is that Drew Brees allegedly plans to play this meaningless game on Sunday with a torn plantar fascia. May the Saints reap what they sow while I do yardwork.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) - With Odell Beckham riding the pine this week for a well-deserved suspension, the complexion of the Giants' offense just got a whole lot uglier. For those who don't remember Eli Manning's performance pre-ODB, let me remind you. In 2013, Manning completed just 57% of his passes with a nasty QB rating of 33.8. This season, he's completing nearly 64% of his passes with a QBR of 66.3. I'm expecting a Vikings mauling this time around. Also, why in the heck is this thing in prime time when NBC could have flexed to Packers-Cardinals?!
Lovely Lady Locks
I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 16, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Patriots -3 over Jets
- Texans +4.5 over Titans
- Vikings -5.5 over Giants
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 142 - 82
Against the Spread: 22 - 23
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