Playoff Predictions: NFL Championship Weekend

And now, the moment about 12.5% of you have been waiting for!  The AFC and NFC Championships are upon us, and they couldn't look more different from the outset.  On the one hand, you've got what has been the quintessential quarterback matchup for more than a decade but now looks like a potential clunker.  On the other, you've got perhaps the best two teams in the league vying for their second Super Bowl appearance and preferably their first Super Bowl win.  Let's get to it!

New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos

The Run-Down: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off yet again (version 17.0) in what could be the last consequential game of Manning's career.  Will the healthy and recharged Patriots steamroll the Broncos on their own turf or can Denver's troops rally behind their veteran QB's last shot at glory?

How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: After tearing a mean Chiefs' pass rush to shreds last weekend, the Patriots are probably liking their chances against a Broncos defense that confounded them back in Week 12.  Although Denver did an admirable job in handing the Pats their first loss and holding them to just 2 of 13 third down conversions, they were handling a team missing nearly half of its offensive starters including Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, and eventually Rob Gronkowski, who was injured during the game.  Now that all of those guys are back except for Lewis, I see the Patriots rinsing and repeating on their rapid-fire spread offensive attack from a week ago.  As I mentioned in my awards earlier this week, New England opted to throw the ball on 75% of offensive snaps in the divisional round despite having a double-digit lead for most of the game, and it was a huge success.  It looks like a strong recipe for another win this weekend against the league's best defense.  By limiting substitutions and forcing the secondary into one-on-one coverage, the Patriots have been able to wear down pass rushers fairly quickly and keep the chains moving with a myriad of capable receivers coming from all over the field.  Although New England's offensive line has had its ups and downs, it appears OC Josh McDaniels has found a better answer in executing that quick snap play design rather than trying to further bolster/rearrange the line to protect Tom Brady.

How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Denver's offensive performance last Sunday makes a strong case for the Patriots to get aggressive at the line of scrimmage and, most importantly, stop the run.  Although there were some mitigating factors like the wind and dropped passes that made Peyton Manning's performance look even worse, he just hasn't shown this season that he can carry this team on his back with 50+ throws per game the way, say, Tom Brady can.  Barring HGH-laced miracles, this should give New England permission to crowd defenders inside 10 to 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and bring extra defenders in to stuff the likes of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.  In the Broncos' losses, they've been held to a measly 60 yards of rushing per game, which is a full 20 yards lower than any team's rushing average this season.  Although it's still weird to say, the best defense against this team is to make them one dimensional through the passing game.  I don't think the Patriots need to blitz all that much giving Manning's limitations these days, but getting good pressure to shrink the pocket could force him into a bad interception or two or lead to big tackles for a loss should he hand off to one of those running backs in play action.  That would come in extra handy if the weather conditions are choppy again on Sunday.

How the Broncos Can Win on Offense: As I alluded to above, if there's a small glimmer of hope for the Broncos' offense, it's that the wind and all those dropped passes created a flukier-than-usual situation for Manning in his second game back since a laundry list of injuries.  Because the Patriots probably won't be afraid to let No. 18 chuck it and because Denver's going to have to put up some points against that opposing offensive juggernaut, they will have to find a way to be successful in the air if only to give their running game a chance.  My vote is for the Broncos to work the bubble screen game and make those receivers atone for their drops by blocking well downfield and setting solid, "totally legal" picks to give Manning more room to throw.  They're going to have to create chaos in short- to mid-field situations to get the extra yards per play that they used to get on the arm of their quarterback.   Obviously, Denver would love nothing more than to get its running game going early in order to tire out the Pats' defense in the second half and rule time of possession.  That's going to require misdirection in blocking schemes and patience when some plays don't work out since Matt Patricia's squad will be expecting a ground-heavy approach.  But the Broncos might just find an opening in their rushing attack if Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins can't suit up in addition to IR-ed Jerod Mayo - it's worth a shot since it might be Denver's only shot to move on.

How the Broncos Can Win on Defense: And now, we've saved the most critical aspect of this game for last.  The brightest side of Denver's potential all season has been its defense, which leads the league in sacks, yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and that all-important and mystifying defensive DVOA.  The secret sauce for slowing down the Patriots is to pressure Tom Brady consistently, preferably while refraining from blitzing where he's one of the best at finding the open man with a crowd in his face.  In the Pats' four losses this season, Brady posted his lowest yards per attempt and completion rates and was sacked roughly three times per game.  Part of that was due to a slew of injuries in the receiving corps, but it's no coincidence that opposing victors like the Broncos and Jets have tremendous power in their defensive lines and were able to take Brady out of his rhythm and force him into dump offs for minimal gain.  New England will probably be hesitant to waste too many running plays on this defense, so Denver might be able to get more creative in how its defenders line up without getting totally burned.  But if they're going to blitz, it needs to be well-disguised without sacrificing coverage on Edelman and Gronkowski.  Mostly though, all they really need are A+, jet-fuel-burning, left-guard-demolishing career days from Demarcus Ware and Von Miller.  No big deal, right?

Prediction: If you read this thing regularly, you probably aren't surprised when I say I think this has the makings of a beatdown.  (Nate Silver says differently.) Denver's defense can definitely hang with New England's offense for a while, but I just don't see the Broncos' offense doing enough to put points on the board while giving their defense the rest they'll need to go four rounds with the Patriots.  Patriots 27, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Run-Down: Who wants some big-play quarterbacks, spectacular defense, and crafty play-calling?  With the Cardinals at close to full strength, this should be a very different game than when these teams last met on wild card weekend a year ago.  And with Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera coaching head to head, you better expect the unexpected.

How the Cardinals Can Win on Offense: A narrative that revived itself during the divisional round was that the Panthers let too many opponents back into games. Their 16 - 1 record says that might be irrelevant, but they've had some pretty close games against teams that can sling it like the Saints, Giants and Seahawks.  My game plan advice for Arizona is pretty similar to what I imparted to Seattle last week - if only they'd listened for both halves!  The Cardinals' best chance on offense is to throw the ball a lot, especially to those second, third and fourth receiving options who won't be guarded by Josh Norman.  Despite an abysmal start, Russell Wilson ultimately put up over 360 passing yards against the Panthers secondary last week with a worse set of receivers than Carson Palmer will have on Sunday. With speedsters like John Brown and J.J. Nelson running vertical routes, the Arizona offense can stretch the Panthers defense beyond its comfort zone and attack its biggest weakness. What the Cardinals should have learned from last week though is that pass protection is at a premium against Carolina, especially early in the game.  So it may be worth bringing an extra body or two onto the offensive line for passing plays until the Arizona offense can settle into a rhythm and find out where they've got size and speed advantages in those receiving matchups.  On the ground, any team will take efficient running yards where they can get 'em, but almost nobody runs well on the Panthers.  So David Johnson screens might have to pass for rushes in this game.  Good thing all of that snow should clear out in Charlotte before Sunday afternoon!

How the Cardinals Can Win on Defense: Here's where things get really tough when you're playing the Panthers.  This team has scored 30 or more points in seven of its last nine games, and as last weekend showed, they can do it very quickly.  The Cardinals defense is no slouch, but they gave up some uncharacteristically big plays in the air and on the ground against the Packers in their previous game which has to have Carolina licking its chops now.  So Arizona's first priority should be to contain those skill players including Cam Newton.  They'll want to control the edges of the pocket to limit his running outlets, and they'll want to do everything they can to keep those receivers near the line of scrimmage to force him into dinking and dunking his way through his progressions instead of improvising.  Newton is a fundamentally different passer than he was the last time these teams met, but Arizona has had a lot of success sacking and picking him off in their previous meetings.  The Cardinals will need to get back to their pocket-disrupting, ball-hawking ways to create some big plays, take the crowd out of it and give Carson Palmer a little cushion to work with on the other side of the ball.  Expect them to bring the house a few times in this one, just don't expect it to work quite as well as it used to.

How the Panthers Can Win on Offense: While the Packers were able to wear down the Cardinals' pass rush through lots of no-huddle last week, I see the Panthers committing heavily to the ground with lots of read option plays between Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart.  Arizona has been pretty good against the run, but as I noted before, most of their losses this year featured strong performances from guys who can get five to six yards per carry with ease.  Carolina's very good at that and essentially has a committee of legs given Newton's prowess on the ground.  Forcing the Arizona front to move laterally and play a physical style of ground-and-pound defense will drain the juice out of some very capable edge rushers, giving him more time to throw down field and get into play action for bigger yards.  The Cardinals haven't looked as good in the secondary since Tyrann Mathieu's ACL injury, and they can be exploited by this big-arm passing attack given their less experienced replacements who've missed some assignments in recent weeks.  Still, Newton has had some ugly turnovers against this team in previous meetings, so it may not be worth risking a lot of passes in tight windows until Arizona's front starts to get gassed.  The Cards thrive on sacks and takeaways, so the Panthers might have to play keep away until things open up.

How the Panthers Can Win on Defense: The bread and butter of the Cardinals' offense is a receiver-heavy passing attack, so that's where the Panthers are likely to focus their attention on Sunday.  Arizona has notched 32 receiving touchdowns in their wins this year compared to just three in their losses.  Thus, Carolina might take its chances by leaning on its front four to stop the run and letting guys like Luke Kuechly run wild in coverage.  Seriously, after watching that guy pick Russell Wilson for a touchdown last week, it seems like he has some kind of teleportation ability that was never reported to customs.  If Carson Palmer's postseason performance so far is any indicator, he looks a little too anxious to put this offense on his shoulders and throw into the kinds of heavy traffic that he really just shouldn't.  Having extra bodies in the backfield will increase the Panthers' chances of breaking up all those laser beams and nabbing an interception or three.  Like the Broncos, Carolina would do well to jam their opposing receivers at the line and make them work as hard as possible for open field. Add some bonus points [and picks] if that front four can collapse the pocket and take away Palmer's decision-making window without blitzing.

Prediction: Given these two teams' ceilings, this feels like a game where anything is possible. I think it'll come down to how these two quarterbacks fare in the biggest game of each of their careers against some top-notch defenses.  With that in mind, I'm giving the nod to presumptive MVP Cam Newton on his home turf... As a Saints fan, I hope this jinxes the Panthers severely.  Panthers 30, Cardinals 24


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
Straight Up: 6 - 2
Against the Spread: 4 - 4