Playoff Picks: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round

Ermagerrd, it's playoffs time!  And--what is that?!--we have four road-tripping wild card teams that are favored over four division winners with homefield advantage???  Nothing could possibly go wrong, but seriously, lock your wallet up tight this weekend. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Houston Texans

The Run-Down: This Week 1 rematch will spell bookends for one of these teams that no one thought had a prayer in October.  The Chiefs and the Texans are your true wild cards this weekend, and they're coming into the playoffs riding a crazy hot streak for a combined 14 - 2 win-loss record over the second half of the season.

How the Chiefs Can Win: It's hard to nitpick a team on a ten-game winning streak, but this is actually a fairly scary defensive matchup for Kansas City's offense.  The Texans thrive when they control the line of scrimmage and force opposing offenses into check downs and mid-range passes, which is pretty much Alex Smith's game in a nutshell.  Granted, Smith has had some spectacular big-arm plays in a couple previous playoff games against the Colts and Saints, but the Chiefs may have to take some risks here in getting Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce & co. a little further downfield when the coverage is right.  But I expect them to go with a heavy dose of rushing, doubling/tripling up on J.J. Watt and conservative play action passing unless Houston gets up by a couple scores.  That's because the key for KC is its soaring defense with presumptive rookie of the year/major ballhawk Marcus Peters and the possible return of Justin Houston to the lineup.  The combination of a high-pressure pass rush and a very good secondary that regularly generates turnovers can neutralize the Texans' biggest playmaker (guy named DeAndre Hopkins) and buy the Chiefs plenty of opportunities to put this one away in the end.  It worked out swimmingly in Week 1 when they forced Hoyer into five sacks and two turnovers and had the win locked up by halftime.

How the Texans Can Win: While we're on the topic of defense, the Texans have one that is just about as good as that of the surging Chiefs by most measures.  And while the natural temptation is to go after Alex Smith until he's black and blue, Houston would do better to focus on stopping the ground game that has kept that offense humming all season long, Jamaal Charles and otherwise.  Wearing down the Chiefs' offensive line and racking up tackles for a loss will put Smith in dreaded third-and-long situations where Houston can really do some damage on the blitz and hopefully create a rare turnover or two.  Kansas City is second only to the Patriots in protecting the football, and given that they've been able to score more easily than Houston this year, the Texans have a much better shot at the upset if they can gain an extra possession or two.  On offense, Houston needs a very strong day from Brian Hoyer to stave off the inevitable pass rush and maybe put some skeletons in Marcus Peters' head while he's still young.  You might see Hoyer test Peters out early with a bomb or two down the sideline to DeAndre Hopkins for that reason. Sticking largely to a spread offense and a few well-timed bubble screens may have to do to stretch out a very deep Chiefs front seven.

Prediction: I gotta confess I'm a bit of a Chiefs homer here for the sake of Mr. Lady Blitz.  I'm impressed with how well-rounded this team has become on both sides of the ball, and I like their chances of winning the turnover battle even if J.J. Watt gives them fits from time to time when they're on offense.  Chiefs 23, Texans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Run-Down: With the Ravens reeling, there's a new AFC North rivalry in town that has gotten nastier as the season has worn on.  In fact, these two teams have managed to lose A.J. Green, Le'Veon Bell (twice), and Andy Dalton to season-ending injuries over their past three games against each other.  Let the bone-crunching death march begin!

How the Steelers Can Win: Seeing how DeAngelo Williams is still questionable to suit up on this short week, the Steelers' passing attack is more important than ever.  That's pretty darn good news considering Pittsburgh has the infallible Antonio Brown and guys like Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton who can outrun a lot of good DBs.  Still, Steelers fans probably don't want to see Big Ben chuck it 40+ times in the game.  As good as this air show has been, it may not do much for Pittsburgh's time of possession, which could put an atrocious secondary on the field for too much time against the Bengals' solid offense.  Even if Pittsburgh has to dig deep into the running back bench, it could pay dividends in wearing down a Cincy defense that's very strong upfront while limiting the Steeler defense's chances of letting an inexperienced quarterback hang around too long.  I can also see Mike Tomlin/Keith Butler throwing in some new blitz packages to fluster Bengals backup A.J. McCarron.  He's been better so far than you might think and has a top ten passer rating in very limited action this season, but he's got his work cut out against a veteran coaching staff that knows this rivalry well and won't be afraid to take risks to knock McCarron out of rhythm even if they give up a few plays.

How the Bengals Can Win: The Steelers will plan on daring A.J. McCarron to throw, but that could work to Cincinnati's advantage seeing as how Pittsburgh ranks 30th in passing yards allowed.  So expect OC Hue Jackson to draw up some high-percentage short and mid-range passing plays where McCarron can get the ball out quickly without giving it to the guys in black and yellow.  That other A.J. [Green] has burned Pittsburgh for 250 yards and 2 TDs in their last two meetings, and his ability to open up the field is key to the Bengals keeping any semblance of a balance between running and passing.  But that's going to require the expert protection of this stout offensive line to stave off any of those blitzes I'm predicting and make the Steelers look foolish in man coverage.  At its heart, this offense is a run-first one, but they'll need to take some chances early in the passing game to avoid becoming one-dimensional... like they have in their last four playoff appearances...  Anyway, you might be surprised to know that the Bengals defense has been pretty good at slowing down Antonio Brown.  He's been held to less than 100 yards per game and 1 touchdown--you know, mortal numbers--during these teams' previous two meetings.  Containing Brown is a rare and good thing, but Cincy has done it at the expense of leaving Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant more open.  They'll need to get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger throughout this game or he'll shred them with the second, third and fourth available options.  The Bengals have a chance though if they can sell out on the pass with a hobbled or benched DeAngelo Williams.

Prediction: This is a tougher pick for me than what it looks like on its face - an unstoppable offense versus one that had to replace its long-time QB having the season of his life with an infant with these tattoos.  I hate it for the Bengals and their fans that there's a good chance they'll be 0 - 7 in the Marvin Lewis era for reasons arguably beyond anyone's control.  Hopefully that was enough to unjinx them so that they can have just one stinkin' well-earned playoff win.  That, and me picking Pittsburgh.  Steelers 27, Bengals 22

Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Run-Down: The Vikings would probably rather forget that 7 - 38 drubbing they took at home from the Seahawks back in Week 13.  With Russell Wilson now playing lights-out and Seattle's defense looking like that dominant unit of years past, Minnesota will have an incredibly tough visitor again this weekend.  But stranger upsets have happened.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The question in most people's minds is how can't the Seahawks win?  Wilson has been the best quarterback in the the NFL by a giant margin over the past six weeks, the Vikings offense is far too one-dimensional to pose a real challenge to Seattle's defense, and this team already beat the Vikings by 4+ touchdowns just a month ago.  As good as the Seahawks have been when they've been good though, they're kind of a hard team to pin down.  One week, they're hardly competitive against the 7 - 9 Rams at home, the next, they're blowing out the mighty Cardinals on the road.  And with a Sunday forecast hovering around zero degrees to go with an early kick-off time, Seattle needs to think slow and steady to avoid the kinds of careless mistakes that caught up to them against those Rams recently.  Given that Marshawn Lynch will finally return to the lineup, I think we'll get vintage Seahawks with lots of runs up the gut to go with some well-timed play action passes and keepers for Russell Wilson.  I could be wrong, but I don't think Wilson's recent aerial outburst will work in these conditions.  Better for Seattle's offense to wear down the stout Vikings front at the line of scrimmage and give Lynch a chance to break free in the second half.  On defense, this is definitely the Seahawks' game to lose.  They should have plenty of success sticking to man coverage and daring Teddy Bridgewater to throw the ball more than 10 yards while they bottle up Adrian Peterson in the trenches.  Minnesota just doesn't have the wealth of offensive playmakers to expose the few weaknesses in Seattle's defense on an ordinary day.

How the Vikings Can Win: So all of that sounds pretty rough for the Vikings, eh?  Indeed, the odds and the matchups are very much in the Seahawks' favor, but it's called any given Sunday for a reason.  After all, Minnesota could learn a lot from those St. Louis Rams - the only team to beat Seattle twice this year (and who've gone 3 - 1 head-to-head over the past two seasons) - because there are some striking similarities in their styles and talents.  For one, the Rams never really tried to beat the Seahawks in a shootout - they played a conservative style of offense, picking up moderate rushing yards where they could and fighting for field position over several possessions until they could open things up in scoring position.  Instead, they've destroyed Seattle many times over with excellent special teams through a smattering of trick plays and big return yards - something that the Vikings can emulate with a very good day from Cordarelle Patterson.  Although Minnesota fans would love to see Adrian Peterson go bananas and render the Legion of Boom irrelevant, this offense will almost certainly need the patience of Job, leaning on a very good defense and special teams unit to set them up for success.  So in my mind, the biggest x-factor in this game has to be the Vikings' defense.  Going back to those Rams, they forced four turnovers and 12 sacks against Seattle in their two meetings this year.  The Seahawks' offensive line has been a vulnerability all season long, allowing the sixth-most sacks in the NFL, while the Vikings defense has notched the seventh-most sacks.  Per that whole field position conversation, tackles for a loss in any form would help Minnesota keep this one in reach and hope that an opportune turnover or blown coverage end up in more points than Seattle comes away with.

Prediction: Phew.  I almost thoroughly talked myself into a Minnesota win there, eh? Nevertheless, given the weather and the Vikings' eyes-wide-open approach this second time around, I can't see this game getting nearly as out of hand as last time.  It's still Seattle's game to lose though.  Seahawks 13, Vikings 9

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Washington Redskinks

The Run-Down: Two teams trending in opposite directions will square off in wild card weekend's Black Box Game of Mysterryyyyyyy.  a.k.a, Are the Packers beyond salvation this season and is Kirk Cousins really that good?

How the Packers Can Win: Boy, has this become a much more difficult thing to rattle off than it was in years past.  By most other teams' standards, the Packers offense is still pretty good, but knowing what we know about Aaron Rodgers' potential, this season has been a mess.  If Green Bay reverted to its old ways, it wouldn't have much of a problem against Washington's mediocre defense.  And truthfully, the Redskinks' are mediocre enough that this version of the Packers could still get past them fairly easily. They aren''t particularly good at pressuring quarterbacks, which has been a challenge for Rodgers behind a struggling offensive line, and they give up nearly five yards per carry, which could help out said line and Eddie Lacy, whose performance fluctuates almost as much as his biscuit cravings.  What Washington has been good at is getting timely turnovers, so Green Bay will want to take good care of the football, especially the fumble-prone Lacy who's probably hoping for a big game to balance out the Packers' reliance on Rodgers.  On defense, this team might catch a break if RB Matt Jones is sidelined.  Green Bay isn't all that great against the run either, so a thinner stable of backs could limit Kirk Cousins' play-action abilities and allow the Packers to focus more attention on the Redskinks' surprisingly good passing game.  The interesting thing about that passing game though is that it's largely built on screens.  Trust me, as a Saints fan, I endured at least four Cousins dump offs that were well-blocked enough to end up going for 40+ yards.  Green Bay's secondary will of course need to keep DeSean Jackson in front of them, but the more important work here is to get good help in coverage from their linebackers to cut off short routes and limit the yards after catch. 

How the Redskinks Can Win: To be overly simplistic, the answer for the Redskinks is to win both lines of scrimmage.  It's no secret at this point that the Packers offense is struggling as much as it ever has since Aaron Rodgers' rookie season, and the issue is a combination of an offensive line that can't seem to buy time or create open running lanes consistently and an also-ran receiving corps that can't get quick separation.  So Washington's best shot at containing Green Bay's offense is to collapse the pocket at the snap in hopes of getting lots of hits, check downs and maybe even a turnover or two.  From my armchair psychologist perspective, Rodgers gets frustrated fairly easily when he gets knocked around, and if even the Redskinks can join the sack party, that should weigh heavily on this offense's motivation after a very frustrating season.  It would also put the Packers in a lot of 2nd-/3rd-and-long scenarios where Eddie Lacy won't be able to bail them out against a weak run defense.  On offense, protection for Kirk Cousins is big - and that's good news for Washington since this offensive line allowed the fourth fewest sacks this season.  The Packers have generated 37 sacks in winning games this season to just six in their losses, so the Redskinks' ability to buy Cousins time will be key to keeping that deadly-efficient passing attack going while taking away one of Green Bay's major defensive strategies. 

Prediction: The Redskinks have become the trendy upset pick of wild card weekend, and depending on the outcome of this one, they'll be reinforcing either that they're a good home team (that has gone 6 - 2 so far) or that they only looked good against bad competition since they've gone 0 - 3 against winning teams to date.  I gotta say, given that Washington has very little to lose while the Packers pretty much look like they want this year to be over, this might just put the cherry on top of Kirk Cousins' next contract.  Redskinks 30, Packers 28