NFL Week 17 Picks

Hard to believe, but it's the final week of the regular season.  Here's what's left to be decided before the real fun begins next weekend: 1) the winner of the AFC South (in all likelihood the Texans); 2) the final AFC wild card spot (either the Steelers or Jets); and 3) a sprinkle of seeding implications for homefield advantage and first-round byes. With that in mind, I've separated the games a bit differently today into games that matter at all for January (ranked by implications) versus games that you really shouldn't bother with unless you're a masochist or snowed in. Anyway, here's what I think:

Games That Matter: Ranked by Entertainment Value and Playoff Significance

1) Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3) - There's a legit reason this game got bumped to prime time during the final week of the regular season: the winner gets the NFC North title and hosting responsibilities for a playoff game next weekend.  After the shellacking the Packers just took in Arizona, it's hard to put a lot of faith in them against another aggressive defense.  But it's still very hard to beat this team at Lambeau, and the Vikings aren't multi-dimensional enough on offense to keep Green Bay's defense honest in this one, I think.

2) New York Jets (-3) at Buffalo Bills - How impressive were the Jets against the Patriots last week?  They've now won five straight in the well-groomed Ryan Fitzpatrick era, and they still need one more to secure their spot in the playoffs.  That's easier said than done against vendetta-prone Rex Ryan facing his old team.  Still, the Jets are more well-rounded and healthier at this point.  I hope they pull it off.

3) San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9) - Every Chiefs fan should be cheering for the Chargers this Sunday in hopes that they get to host their first playoff game since 2010.  With the Broncos' sputtering Brock Osweiler-led offense, San Diego has a decent chance of keeping this one in reach even with a few three-and-outs.  But the Chargers just haven't been very good this year - it'd be too opportune for them to start now.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers (-11) at Cleveland Browns - Okay, so I was just as surprised as you were that Ben Roethlisberger and the high-flying Steelers offense couldn't get past the Swiss cheese the Ravens call a secondary last weekend.  Playing the Browns is as good of a redemption game as they'll get, and should Rex Ryan get the better of the Jets this week, Pittsburgh can win and get in here.  The playoffs would likely be better for it.

5) New England Patriots (-10) at Miami Dolphins - A win in Miami gives the Pats homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  They missed the opportunity for an extra bye week on Sunday after falling to the Jets, but it's rare to see Bill Belichick's team whiff twice in a row.  Plus, the Dolphins are terrible.
 
6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10.5) - Undefeated no more, the Panthers, like the Patriots, are vying for homefield advantage in January this weekend.  Many will argue Carolina's loss last week is just the wakeup call they need to be prepared for a tough NFC postseason where they could face the dangerous Seahawks and/or Cardinals.  However, those folks sound like they haven't been watching the Panthers all season - they are plenty good, wakeup call or not.  Regardless, I can't see Carolina having any problems with the fledgling Buccaneers, and I'm cool with that.

7) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5) - The Texans are almost certainly in with the AFC South title whether or not they beat the nearly rebuilt Jaguars this weekend.  But that glowing feeling may not last long once the Chiefs/Broncos/Jets/Steelers touch down in Houston next weekend.  Better make this one count.

8) Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) - The Chiefs' fate is in the hands of the Chargers and Broncos this weekend, but should Denver lose, the tailgate at Arrowhead could start at 12:01am on Monday morning.  The Raiders haven't been an easy opponent for Kansas City, but there isn't a hotter team in the NFL right now, and the Chiefs are beating everyone they should these days.

9) Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - Another team that will be watching the Broncos and Chargers with bated breath is the Cincinnati Bengals.  They had the chance to lock up a bye in a head-to-head in Denver on Monday night, but it wasn't meant to be.  But since the Bengals won't know the outcome of the Broncos game until well after theirs is over, they should be motivated and able to handle the Ravens while they're in limbo over what to expect next weekend.

10) Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) - There's a chance the Panthers steamroll the Buccaneers early enough in their game that the Cardinals starters get pulled before this usually significant divisional battle is done.  On the other hand, Arizona might be quite interested in locking Seattle into the sixth seed so that they have to go to Carolina before the Seahawks have a chance to play the Cardinals again this postseason.  Who knows.  All I know is Seattle could really struggle against the red birds' spectacular defense and offense if Arizona plans to win this one.

Games That Don’t Matter: Watch Them if You Must, But Mark Your Calendars for Draft Day

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - This game technically "matters" for the Colts, but didya see all of the other dominoes above that have to fall for them to play extra football?  It ain't happening.  But now that the Jaguars are kind of okay, Indy can at least enjoy taking out their homefield aggression against the lowlier Tennessee Titans instead. 

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) - It's another lost season for the Saints and the Falcons with varying degrees of high hopes in a formerly weak division.  But they'll have one last shot to beat each other senseless in the latest chapter of this heated rivalry.  Draft position be damned, it'd be awesome to see New Orleans pull off the sweep that used to come easily for Sean Payton and Drew Brees.  But the Saints have gone 1 - 4 when I've picked them to win and 5 - 5 when I've picked them to lose, so I'll take the dumbest odds where I can get 'em.  Rise up, Failcants!!!

Washington Redskinks at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Ugh. Thanks to my regional viewing area, I get to watch both this meaningless garbage game and the above Titans-Colts slap fight on network television.  It doesn't matter, and the Redskinks are already locked into the fourth seed in the NFC.  They could rest most of their starters and still troll the turrible Cowboys with a win.  It wouldn't be nearly as harsh as Brandon Weeden trolling Jerry Jones this week though - that was legitimately amazing.  Anyway, I think Washington rests a lot of important playmakers like Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson while Cowboys backup QB Kellen Moore fights hard to earn a job next season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5) - You saw how bad life was for Eli Manning without Odell Beckham, Jr. last weekend - may he never pull a hamstring or get a bad hangnail for the sake of the Giants offense.  On the other line of scrimmage, the Eagles will be experiencing life without Chip Kelly, which sounds like a pretty good thing according to lots of juicy anonymous sources.  So this game could be nuts is all I'm saying.  I'm guessing Big Blue is the more stable option with big-play ability on offense, but they might just take a page from their rivals and try to get Tom Coughlin out the door with a bad meaningless loss this week.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-1) - Welp, this wasn't a stellar year for either of these NFC North teams, but there are some glimmers of hope between Chicago's improving offensive production and Detroit's serviceable post-Suh defense.  I might as well toss a coin on this one, but I think a win matters a little more to Jim Caldwell than John Fox given the turbulent conditions in the Lions' front office.  Perhaps the guys in Honolulu Blue will step up for a coach they seem to like.

St. Louis Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers - So Todd Gurley is apparently in a walking boot, and that's a big relief to the 49ers who are allowing an average 125 rush yards per game.  (That's bad.)  I could still see the Rams defense giving Blaine Gabbert and friends fits regardless of how the St. Louis offense performs, but they haven't won many games this year when Gurley's been out or quiet.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.... Hey, it's the end of the season and I am the definition of mediocre at spread picks!  Probably won't be doing this again. In Week 17, I've picked nearly all favorites straight up, so let's sprinkle this last hurrah with a couple upsets:

• Ravens +9 over Bengals
• Chargers +9 over Broncos
• Patriots -10 over Dolphins

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 151 - 89
Against the Spread: 24 - 24