Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5)
The Run-Down: A rising underdog that just won its first playoff game in more than 20 years squares off with a perennial Super Bowl contender trying to rebound from major injuries. In other words, this is a David and Goliath matchup where the giant’s coming in a little hobbled.How the Chiefs Can Win: The easiest way for the Chiefs to win is to put Brian Hoyer in Tom Brady’s uniform. No problem, right? With Jeremy Maclin potentially sidelined and Kansas City having few wins against quality opponents during their miraculous streak, this will undoubtedly be their toughest game so far this season. But in my mind, the Chiefs have everything they need to win in their toolbox - it’s a matter of strategically exploiting the Patriots’ few weaknesses and executing a methodical game plan despite whatever wrinkles Bill Belichick may throw their way. On offense, this team has done wonders in getting decent yardage on first down. With the prospect of Maclin benched or limited, the Chiefs' chances of an upset could go up dramatically if they can get their power running game going with Spencer Ware and use screens and shallow crosses prominently to pick up moderate yardage early to keep their offensive options as open as possible. Alex Smith's scrambling abilities could also come in handy in buying extra time for those sub-Maclin receivers to get open. More than anything, the Chiefs need to hang onto the ball at all costs - these two teams are both exceptional at winning the turnover battle, and KC's margin of error will be razor-thin in this road game. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City is looking at two potential gifts in slowing Brady down: 1) the weather, which could be sloppy; and 2) Julian Edelman coming back at less than full strength. We'll talk more about Edelman in the Pats' section but given how similar his foot fracture is to that of Dez Bryant and Kevin Durant, he may have a tough time getting speed off the line of scrimmage and making the cuts he's used to. The Chiefs are also one of the best defenses in the league when it comes to shutting down tight ends, and they'll need to put that to good use against Gronk. All of these factors invite the Chiefs secondary to get physical at the snap and take Brady's many slot and screen targets off path. The more often they can take away the first, second and third targets in the Pats' arsenal, the more effective that nasty pass rush is going to be against a guy who doesn't like to get hit and who is also down to his third- and fourth-string running backs.
How the Patriots Can Win: The good news for Pats fans is that this is one of the few teams in the NFL with enough offensive playmakers to stretch the Chiefs’ defense beyond its very high limits. That starts with getting a healthier Julian Edelman back. If he’s at 100%, Edelman is among the best in the league in finding gaps in zone coverage and getting quick separation in the slot in man coverage. He could be nearly unguardable, even against an excellent Chiefs secondary, and he could draw lots of extra attention to open up passing lanes for other receivers. If Edelman isn’t fully healthy, I would expect the Pats to use him in plenty of pick plays and decoy situations in an aggressive offensive game plan during the first half. Once KC catches on, they are deep enough in the backfield to put lesser defenders on him and focus fully on Tom Brady’s other targets as many teams have been able to do in Edelman’s absence during the regular season. Keep an eye out for RB James White in this case - he’s become a poor man’s Shane Vereen over the past month, and feeding him lots of quick screens is another way to wear down the Chiefs defense and open up the passing game on other parts of the field. Given the aforementioned weather, the Pats may have to dig deeper into their ground game than they'd like with LeGarette Blount out for the year, so they may do better to sacrifice Rob Gronkowski to run-blocking the majority of the time instead of trying to feed him passes in a bad defensive matchup. On defense, the Patriots need to get aggressive upfront to force Alex Smith into long yardage situations and also contain him when he's inclined to scramble. Getting Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower back should give New England's pass rush some oomph as well as their run defense, more importantly. If this game ends up in the trenches, the Pats defense will need to be ready to grind it out in those running lanes in order to get the Chiefs offense off the field.
Prediction: If there's anyone in the AFC that can really give the Patriots a run for their money, I think it's the Chiefs. They can play tight man coverage, shut down tight ends, and find ways to keep the chains moving with lots of guys you've barely heard of. On the other hand, the thought of picking an Andy Reid-coached team over a Belichick one is terrifying. In the end, I've got to homer it up again for a team on a hot streak that should put up a good fight regardless of the end result. Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)
The Run-Down: Coming off of a dominant win against Washington and maybe taking a page from those almost-resilient Vikings, the Packers head back to Arizona in hopes of avenging an ugly 8 - 38 loss three weeks ago.How the Packers Can Win: As abysmal as that previous meeting was for the Packers, taking better care of the ball could have put them in a much more competitive position to come back in the second half. 28 of the Cardinals 38 points were either defensive touchdown returns or offensive drives set up by Green Bay turnovers. The Packers shouldn't treat that as a fluke though - Arizona was second only to Carolina in generating turnovers this season and recovered three of five forced fumbles the last time these two teams met. So this offense needs to practice ball security in a big way this week, especially on the ground. As I'll get into in the next section, Eddie Lacy could help the Packer offense get into a rhythm if he can get through the pile without negative plays. The other area Green Bay struggled mightily with three weeks ago was protecting the quarterback. The Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times, giving him virtually no time to get through his progressions or even throw the ball away in some cases. This past week in Washington should give Packers fans a glimmer of hope that some of those offensive line issues have been resolved, but Arizona is a stronger defensive and pass rushing team by a long shot, so they shouldn't count on it. To mitigate the Cardinals' front, I'd expect Rodgers to take a lot of snaps out of the shotgun where he can roll towards the sideline or try to work those quick no-huddle slants that turned his fortunes around last weekend. The only thing that can slow guys like Calais Campbell down is buying yourself more time and forcing them to run sideways on extended drives to get them out of position and out of breath. On defense, the Packers need to contain Arizona's receivers inside and near the line of scrimmage and hope for the best in stuffing David Johnson in the backfield. They gave up over eight yards per passing attempt and nearly five yards per carry the last time they tried to stop the Cards' juggernaut, so crowding in those skill players would give them a better chance of stalling drives and limiting Carson Palmer's options on long-yardage downs.
Prediction: Despite the odds and the point spread, the Packers will probably keep this game more competitive than they did last time around. But they need a whole lot more to go right than the Cardinals do to win, so I'll take the odds. Cardinals 31, Packers 21
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
The Run-Down: A budding NFC rivalry will write another chapter in its second divisional round game in as many years. There will be stifling defense and electrifying quarterback play - what more can you ask for?How the Seahawks Can Win: Panthers cornerback Josh Norman was little known before his breakout 2015 season in which he earned shutdown status. That might be bad for Doug Baldwin, but the Panthers are down to their fourth CB2, which could open things up for the Seahawks' other serviceable receivers like Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett. Putting multiple wideouts on deep routes should spring at least one of them free and limit the effectiveness of Carolina's front seven. With Russell Wilson now in pocket passer nirvana, airing it out early and often would put a lot of pressure on Cam Newton to match Seattle score-for-score with less talented receivers against a tougher secondary. That worked out pretty well for the Falcons, who handed the Panthers their one loss so far this season; Matt Ryan averaged over 13 yards per completion, mostly to Julio Jones who carved up Norman on his only bad day all year. It's hard to know what to expect out of Seattle's run game after Marshawn Lynch bailed out last week, but the Panthers are hard to run on, and given the way Wilson has played over the past month, I'd expect the Seahawks to get the most bang for their buck in the passing game. On defense, Seattle's secondary matches up well with the Panthers' good-not-great receiving corps - well enough at least that they can continue to work in single coverage and keep linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage to spy on Cam Newton if he decides to run for it. The thing the Seahawks will definitely have to do better than last time these teams played each other is guard Greg Olsen. Olsen was responsible for half of Newton's passing yards that day and scored the game-winning touchdown on busted coverage - he can get open quickly and convert third downs with the best of 'em. It may be worth Seattle taking a few gambles on third-and-medium or -long to put extra bodies on this security blanket.
How the Panthers Can Win: As last weekend's weather-torn slugfest in Minnesota showed, Seattle is more dependent now than ever on Russell Wilson to win games. Given Wilson's continued ascendance, that's mostly been good for the Seahawks, but it also gives Carolina a narrower focus for Sunday's game plan. The Panthers will want to exploit Seattle's inconsistent offensive line as much as possible to tackle behind the line of scrimmage and limit the time Seahawks receivers have to get open against a banged up secondary. Like many other quarterbacks in this week's post, Wilson is particularly good rolling out to the edges to buy time or get extra yards on his feet, so Thomas Davis & co. need to take away those outlets where possible and force him into hasty decisions that can be deflected or intercepted. On offense, another big day from Greg Olsen would be ideal, but knowing that Seattle will be planning for No. 88, I wonder if the Panthers will go a bit more improvisational with lots of read option and play action snaps to keep the Seahawks guessing. A recent analogy would be Clemson's offensive game plan against Alabama. Deshaun Watson, who's been compared to Newton regularly, had tons of plays at his disposal that he could work out on the ground or through the air depending on what the Tide's vaunted defense gave him and ultimately put up nearly 500 yards against that stingy, disciplined squad.
Prediction: As good as both of these teams have been, there are reasons to wonder about each. The Panthers have new vulnerabilities in the secondary and have mostly matched up badly with the Seattle defense in the past despite their recent win on a busted play. The Seahawks are still an inconsistent team that sometimes stalls on offense and gives up big plays a little more often than it used to. I guess I'm going Carolina given that Seattle has struggled against its better defensive opponents this season while the Panthers have struggled against virtually no one. Panthers 17, Seahawks 14
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7)
The Run-Down: Divisional weekend might end with more of a whimper than a bang depending on how healthy Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are. But it's worth stopping to smell the roses for what could be one of Manning's last games as a starter.How the Steelers Can Win: There's no denying that the Steelers' chances rest heavily on the state of Roethlisberger's shoulder and Brown's head after a predictably brutal game against the Bengals last week. If they're both suited up and reasonably functional, that changes the complexion of this game. In this best case scenario, Pittsburgh would do well to run a spread offense to dilute the Broncos' defensive front and give Roethlisberger tons of options in the middle of the field and long range to keep the chains moving. The Steelers had to do this by default against Denver during their past meeting and managed to overcome a 17-point deficit in the process. The much more likely scenario here though is that Pittsburgh is going to play without the All Pro Brown and with a quarterback with a sprained AC joint who can't air it out 55 times like last time. It's a long shot, but my best advice would be to look at the Chiefs' recent success against the Broncos for inspiration. If you posit that they should have won their first meeting with Denver this year too, KC has been a textbook example of how to beat this defense with a short- to mid-range dink and dunk passing game and an insistence on running the ball to wear the other side down. The Steelers' backup running backs did an admirable job against the Bengals last week, and the committee approach could work out okay here in wearing down the likes of Von Miller and Demarcus Ware late in the game. On defense, Pittsburgh's secondary leaves much to be desired, and if Peyton Manning is truly revitalized, it'll be hard for the Steelers to keep this one in reach. If he's not though, the Steelers are very good at stopping the run, so daring Manning to throw might be the best route for Pittsburgh to generate some much-needed turnovers off of a wounded duck or two. That run defense could also come in handy in keeping the Broncos in long-yardage situations where Manning can't lean on his favorite play action calls to fool the Steelers' defense.
Prediction: A week ago, I probably would have picked the Steelers in this one, but the impact of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown on this team cannot be understated. Given how good the Broncos' defense already is and how bad the Steelers' secondary is, both sides of the ball favor Denver barring a medical miracle. Broncos 22, Steelers 13
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
Straight Up: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 2 - 2
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