Grading Each 2015-16 NFL Playoff Team

We're just one game away from closing the books on the 2015-16 NFL season!  There'll be plenty of Lady Blitz goodies next week for you to prepare for Super Bowl 50, but in the meantime, let's take a look back on how our twelve contenders did on the playoff gauntlet.  As always, my totally scientific grades take into account each team's potential versus output this January to each one's ability. 



Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos: A+
It turns out the old adage that defense wins championships is still very much in fashion in 2016. The Panthers will enter the Super Bowl as Vegas favorites after stomping two very good offensive teams into that questionable Bank of America turf these last two weeks. They’ve been unimpeachable on both sides of the ball in the postseason and really all season long - it’s mind-boggling to think how close this team was to being 18 - 0 right now. With Cam Newton’s consistently MVP-worthy performances and a defense that has only ratcheted up its turnover-producing and QB-terrorizing ways in January, there’s no viable argument that the Panthers don’t deserve to be here. On the other side of the bracket, the Broncos defense is a black hole that negates the obvious flaws and gaps elsewhere on the roster. Although Denver hasn’t always looked pretty this season, that defensive masterpiece against the Patriots on Sunday was truly remarkable - the beginning and end of why the Broncos earned the #1 seed in the AFC and fought their way to an improbable second Super Bowl appearance in three years. There’ll be a whole on these guys next week, but for now, let’s just enjoy this moment of awe and evaluate how all of our playoff also-rans did as they turn to the offseason.

Arizona Cardinals: D
Going into the playoffs, I thought the Cardinals might be the best team in the NFL. They had an experienced quarterback riding the best season of his career, a deep, speedy pack of offensive skill players, a defense that was as good as any other in pressuring quarterbacks and taking the ball away and an aggressive coach who seemed to get the best out of his entire roster every week. That might still be mostly true on the basis of 18 games, but boy did Arizona pick the wrong time to slump badly. Over his past three games, Carson Palmer was downright abysmal with seven interceptions, three fumbles and six sacks. On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s defense also swooned in the worst imaginable way. After holding opponents to less than 20 points during the regular season, the Cards gave up a staggering 35 points per game over their final three games.  Despite advancing to the NFC Championship, Arizona will mostly be remembered this postseason for allowing Aaron Rodgers to pull off two Hail Marys with a fourth-string receiver and for serving as the welcome mat for the Panthers' 49-point Super Bowl party.  Larry Fitzgerald deserved better.

Cincinnati Bengals: D-
I've been debating about this grade.  On the one hand, the Bengals nearly pulled off the upset with a young backup quarterback against the formidable Steelers. They were less than two minutes away from earning their first playoff win in over 25 years against a hated division rival in front of an eager Cincinnati home crowd.  But being the Bungles, they handed their fans the Worst Playoff Collapse of All Time.  It was an inconceivably bad way to lose a game - a fumble in the red zone and then two totally unnecessary personal fouls that led to a last-minute six point swing and another gut punch for a fanbase that already has to deal with Skyline Chili on a regular basis.  For anyone who thought the Bengals postseason experience couldn't get any worse, give me all of those Andy Dalton implosions tenfold over this one.

Green Bay Packers: B
I don't think the Packers would have had a prayer of coming out on top against the Panthers, but boy did they do as well as a divisional round loser could have been expected to given their circumstances. After ending the regular season on a 4 - 6 win-loss slide and ceding the NFC North crown to the Vikings, Green Bay looked like a team with a rudderless offense and a frequently overmatched defense.  After falling behind 0 - 11 early against the Redskinks, the Cheeseheads' worst fears seemed to be confirmed.  But then the Packers found a way to rekindle their old mojo with Aaron Rodgers running an expert no-huddle offense and the defense shutting down Kirk Cousins to the tune of six sacks.  Against the Cardinals who'd beaten them by 30 points just weeks earlier, Green Bay held their own despite having to go it without Randall Cobb and Davante Adams for most of the game.  Starting from his own end zone with 90 seconds to go, Rodgers' two OT-clinching monster passes to Jeff Janis will be part of the NFL's highlight reel for a long time.  It wasn't enough in the end, but this team still showed what it's capable of with lots of spare parts, and they'll be back here next year.  One point of demerit: boo to Rodgers and Clay Matthews for being so whiny about the overtime rules.  The Packers benefited more than the Cardinals by demanding that the coin be flipped again since it went Arizona's way the first time.  There's no logical sense in Rodgers needing to call a different side since we've all known since second grade that the odds are always 50/50.  And really, if you want to win an overtime game, maybe don't leave the other team's best receiver wide open for an 80-yard pass on the first play.  #justsayin

Houston Texans: F
You remember the scoreboard in this one, right?  Still, Brian Hoyer owes Carson Palmer a fruit basket for making a lot of people forget about the worst QB performance in the playoffs.  Shame on the Texans for getting to bellyflop on national television while the New York Jets had to sit at home.

Kansas City Chiefs: C+
On the plus side, the Chiefs finally earned that elusive playoff win in resounding fashion with a road shutout over the Texans.  They even had a chance after a lackluster start in Foxboro against the AFC's best offense.  But between Andy Reid's inevitably terrible clock management and the evaporation of KC's pass rush, the Chiefs just didn't bring the kind of aggression needed to topple the Patriots.  After watching the Broncos dismantle the Pats' passing attack this past Sunday, it makes you wonder how the Chiefs' postseason might have turned out if Justin Houston had been able to play more than a handful of snaps.  It was too little too late for this AFC bridesmaid.

Minnesota Vikings: B-
If you're balking at me giving this team a B-minus after going 0 - 1 in the playoffs, I totally understand where you're coming from.  But like I said, this is about how each team played according to expectations, not how they all stacked up together in the power rankings.  Nobody gave Minnesota much of a chance against the Seattle "Nobody Wants to Play Them Right Now" Seahawks - and to be fair, Seattle had routed them a few weeks earlier in Minnesota.  The Vikings adjusted their strategy, played for field position and held Russell Wilson & co. scoreless for three quarters.  If not for a badly shanked chip shot at the very end, they would have pulled off the biggest upset of the postseason.  It wasn't meant to be, as is often the case for Minnesota, but this team played it 95% right to try to take down a formidable opponent.  How 'bout a B-minus for a resounding moral victory?!

New England Patriots: B+
Getting Edelman and Gronk back at close to full strength, the Patriots looked like a shoe-in for a Super Bowl repeat and they played like it in quashing the Chiefs' 11-game win streak during the divisional round.  All they had to do was beat the hobbling ghost of Peyton Manning at Mile High, but they seemed to forget about that #1 defense that would also be waiting with knives and brass knuckles in the alley.  New England's offensive line was absolutely mauled, and Tom Brady was hit 20 times - more than any quarterback in any game this season or since 2006 for that matter.  They had no answers for Demarcus Ware, Von Miller or Derek Wolfe.  And yet remarkably, the Patriots still managed to get within two yards of overtime at the end of this game.  Denver was the better team on Sunday, but New England's fight to the end was impressive in a different way.  Whether you love 'em or hate 'em, the Pats still aren't going anywhere any time soon for a reason.

Pittsburgh Steelers: C
There was a pretty equally balanced yin and yang for the Steelers this postseason in a bad-looking win and a good-looking loss.  In that case, a "C" sounds about right.  It won't happen for totally understandable reasons, but they should really take Jeremy Hill and Pacman Jones out to dinner next time they're in town for gifting the Steelers that wild card win. (Vontaze can stay home though.)  Pittsburgh would have been sent packing a lot earlier if it wasn't for the Bengals' complete self-destruction.  But they gave a gutsy if futile performance the following week in Denver.  Down to their third- and fourth-string running backs without Antonio Brown and with Ben Roethlisberger's banged up shoulder, the Steelers managed to keep pace with the Broncos a lot better than the Patriots would a week later.  Like many also-rans on this list, Pittsburgh's exit came down to a couple bad plays - most notably Fitzgerald Toussaint's fumble in field goal range that led to a ten-point swing in the Broncos' favor.  They never looked like their best selves in January with so many injuries to contend with, but the Steelers stayed in each game with the next man up as long as they could.

Seattle Seahawks: C-
After being a dominant force in the NFC for two and a half years, the Seahawks took a step back this season and it definitely showed in the playoffs.  First, they struggled mightily against a Vikings team they had recently beaten by four touchdowns.  Russell Wilson looked out of sorts for much of the afternoon, and Minnesota had this team dead to rights until they missed an easy field goal as time expired.  Then they went to Carolina where the Panthers steamrolled them 31 - 0 in the first twenty minutes of the game.  Once again, Wilson had a rough start and cost the Seahawks with a pick six on the first drive.  The vaunted Legion of Boom was nowhere to be seen against the Panthers who were able to do whatever they wanted for the first half of the game.  The Seahawks turned things around somewhat in the second half and got the game within a possession, but that's likely just because Carolina was playing prevent defense and keep away offense for a full 30 minutes.  Given their recent success, I'm holding Seattle to a higher standard than most here, and they did not live up to [very high] expectations in either of their playoff games this time.

Washington Redskinks: D+
True story - I could not remember the twelfth team here for the longest time, which is probably a good clue to how I feel about the Redskinks' playoff performance.  Like the Texans, the Redskinks benefited from being the last team standing in a very weak division, and they looked completely overmatched once they faced legitimate competition in the postseason.  I have to give them a little credit for jumping out to a double-digit lead against the Packers, but they just couldn't adjust after Green Bay did.  With Aaron Rodgers working at lightning speed, Washington's defense soon got winded, unable to get off the field or defend Eddie Lacy on the ground as the game wore on.  Even worse, after having some of the best pass protection in the league during the regular season, the Redskinks' offensive line collapsed in the second half, giving Kirk Cousins virtually no time to get the ball downfield or pick sod out of his facemask.  For this woeful franchise, I guess it's an honor just to be invited to the playoffs, but it doesn't make for compelling television by any stretch of the imagination.

Playoff Predictions: NFL Championship Weekend

And now, the moment about 12.5% of you have been waiting for!  The AFC and NFC Championships are upon us, and they couldn't look more different from the outset.  On the one hand, you've got what has been the quintessential quarterback matchup for more than a decade but now looks like a potential clunker.  On the other, you've got perhaps the best two teams in the league vying for their second Super Bowl appearance and preferably their first Super Bowl win.  Let's get to it!

New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos

The Run-Down: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off yet again (version 17.0) in what could be the last consequential game of Manning's career.  Will the healthy and recharged Patriots steamroll the Broncos on their own turf or can Denver's troops rally behind their veteran QB's last shot at glory?

How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: After tearing a mean Chiefs' pass rush to shreds last weekend, the Patriots are probably liking their chances against a Broncos defense that confounded them back in Week 12.  Although Denver did an admirable job in handing the Pats their first loss and holding them to just 2 of 13 third down conversions, they were handling a team missing nearly half of its offensive starters including Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, and eventually Rob Gronkowski, who was injured during the game.  Now that all of those guys are back except for Lewis, I see the Patriots rinsing and repeating on their rapid-fire spread offensive attack from a week ago.  As I mentioned in my awards earlier this week, New England opted to throw the ball on 75% of offensive snaps in the divisional round despite having a double-digit lead for most of the game, and it was a huge success.  It looks like a strong recipe for another win this weekend against the league's best defense.  By limiting substitutions and forcing the secondary into one-on-one coverage, the Patriots have been able to wear down pass rushers fairly quickly and keep the chains moving with a myriad of capable receivers coming from all over the field.  Although New England's offensive line has had its ups and downs, it appears OC Josh McDaniels has found a better answer in executing that quick snap play design rather than trying to further bolster/rearrange the line to protect Tom Brady.

How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Denver's offensive performance last Sunday makes a strong case for the Patriots to get aggressive at the line of scrimmage and, most importantly, stop the run.  Although there were some mitigating factors like the wind and dropped passes that made Peyton Manning's performance look even worse, he just hasn't shown this season that he can carry this team on his back with 50+ throws per game the way, say, Tom Brady can.  Barring HGH-laced miracles, this should give New England permission to crowd defenders inside 10 to 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and bring extra defenders in to stuff the likes of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.  In the Broncos' losses, they've been held to a measly 60 yards of rushing per game, which is a full 20 yards lower than any team's rushing average this season.  Although it's still weird to say, the best defense against this team is to make them one dimensional through the passing game.  I don't think the Patriots need to blitz all that much giving Manning's limitations these days, but getting good pressure to shrink the pocket could force him into a bad interception or two or lead to big tackles for a loss should he hand off to one of those running backs in play action.  That would come in extra handy if the weather conditions are choppy again on Sunday.

How the Broncos Can Win on Offense: As I alluded to above, if there's a small glimmer of hope for the Broncos' offense, it's that the wind and all those dropped passes created a flukier-than-usual situation for Manning in his second game back since a laundry list of injuries.  Because the Patriots probably won't be afraid to let No. 18 chuck it and because Denver's going to have to put up some points against that opposing offensive juggernaut, they will have to find a way to be successful in the air if only to give their running game a chance.  My vote is for the Broncos to work the bubble screen game and make those receivers atone for their drops by blocking well downfield and setting solid, "totally legal" picks to give Manning more room to throw.  They're going to have to create chaos in short- to mid-field situations to get the extra yards per play that they used to get on the arm of their quarterback.   Obviously, Denver would love nothing more than to get its running game going early in order to tire out the Pats' defense in the second half and rule time of possession.  That's going to require misdirection in blocking schemes and patience when some plays don't work out since Matt Patricia's squad will be expecting a ground-heavy approach.  But the Broncos might just find an opening in their rushing attack if Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins can't suit up in addition to IR-ed Jerod Mayo - it's worth a shot since it might be Denver's only shot to move on.

How the Broncos Can Win on Defense: And now, we've saved the most critical aspect of this game for last.  The brightest side of Denver's potential all season has been its defense, which leads the league in sacks, yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and that all-important and mystifying defensive DVOA.  The secret sauce for slowing down the Patriots is to pressure Tom Brady consistently, preferably while refraining from blitzing where he's one of the best at finding the open man with a crowd in his face.  In the Pats' four losses this season, Brady posted his lowest yards per attempt and completion rates and was sacked roughly three times per game.  Part of that was due to a slew of injuries in the receiving corps, but it's no coincidence that opposing victors like the Broncos and Jets have tremendous power in their defensive lines and were able to take Brady out of his rhythm and force him into dump offs for minimal gain.  New England will probably be hesitant to waste too many running plays on this defense, so Denver might be able to get more creative in how its defenders line up without getting totally burned.  But if they're going to blitz, it needs to be well-disguised without sacrificing coverage on Edelman and Gronkowski.  Mostly though, all they really need are A+, jet-fuel-burning, left-guard-demolishing career days from Demarcus Ware and Von Miller.  No big deal, right?

Prediction: If you read this thing regularly, you probably aren't surprised when I say I think this has the makings of a beatdown.  (Nate Silver says differently.) Denver's defense can definitely hang with New England's offense for a while, but I just don't see the Broncos' offense doing enough to put points on the board while giving their defense the rest they'll need to go four rounds with the Patriots.  Patriots 27, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Run-Down: Who wants some big-play quarterbacks, spectacular defense, and crafty play-calling?  With the Cardinals at close to full strength, this should be a very different game than when these teams last met on wild card weekend a year ago.  And with Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera coaching head to head, you better expect the unexpected.

How the Cardinals Can Win on Offense: A narrative that revived itself during the divisional round was that the Panthers let too many opponents back into games. Their 16 - 1 record says that might be irrelevant, but they've had some pretty close games against teams that can sling it like the Saints, Giants and Seahawks.  My game plan advice for Arizona is pretty similar to what I imparted to Seattle last week - if only they'd listened for both halves!  The Cardinals' best chance on offense is to throw the ball a lot, especially to those second, third and fourth receiving options who won't be guarded by Josh Norman.  Despite an abysmal start, Russell Wilson ultimately put up over 360 passing yards against the Panthers secondary last week with a worse set of receivers than Carson Palmer will have on Sunday. With speedsters like John Brown and J.J. Nelson running vertical routes, the Arizona offense can stretch the Panthers defense beyond its comfort zone and attack its biggest weakness. What the Cardinals should have learned from last week though is that pass protection is at a premium against Carolina, especially early in the game.  So it may be worth bringing an extra body or two onto the offensive line for passing plays until the Arizona offense can settle into a rhythm and find out where they've got size and speed advantages in those receiving matchups.  On the ground, any team will take efficient running yards where they can get 'em, but almost nobody runs well on the Panthers.  So David Johnson screens might have to pass for rushes in this game.  Good thing all of that snow should clear out in Charlotte before Sunday afternoon!

How the Cardinals Can Win on Defense: Here's where things get really tough when you're playing the Panthers.  This team has scored 30 or more points in seven of its last nine games, and as last weekend showed, they can do it very quickly.  The Cardinals defense is no slouch, but they gave up some uncharacteristically big plays in the air and on the ground against the Packers in their previous game which has to have Carolina licking its chops now.  So Arizona's first priority should be to contain those skill players including Cam Newton.  They'll want to control the edges of the pocket to limit his running outlets, and they'll want to do everything they can to keep those receivers near the line of scrimmage to force him into dinking and dunking his way through his progressions instead of improvising.  Newton is a fundamentally different passer than he was the last time these teams met, but Arizona has had a lot of success sacking and picking him off in their previous meetings.  The Cardinals will need to get back to their pocket-disrupting, ball-hawking ways to create some big plays, take the crowd out of it and give Carson Palmer a little cushion to work with on the other side of the ball.  Expect them to bring the house a few times in this one, just don't expect it to work quite as well as it used to.

How the Panthers Can Win on Offense: While the Packers were able to wear down the Cardinals' pass rush through lots of no-huddle last week, I see the Panthers committing heavily to the ground with lots of read option plays between Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart.  Arizona has been pretty good against the run, but as I noted before, most of their losses this year featured strong performances from guys who can get five to six yards per carry with ease.  Carolina's very good at that and essentially has a committee of legs given Newton's prowess on the ground.  Forcing the Arizona front to move laterally and play a physical style of ground-and-pound defense will drain the juice out of some very capable edge rushers, giving him more time to throw down field and get into play action for bigger yards.  The Cardinals haven't looked as good in the secondary since Tyrann Mathieu's ACL injury, and they can be exploited by this big-arm passing attack given their less experienced replacements who've missed some assignments in recent weeks.  Still, Newton has had some ugly turnovers against this team in previous meetings, so it may not be worth risking a lot of passes in tight windows until Arizona's front starts to get gassed.  The Cards thrive on sacks and takeaways, so the Panthers might have to play keep away until things open up.

How the Panthers Can Win on Defense: The bread and butter of the Cardinals' offense is a receiver-heavy passing attack, so that's where the Panthers are likely to focus their attention on Sunday.  Arizona has notched 32 receiving touchdowns in their wins this year compared to just three in their losses.  Thus, Carolina might take its chances by leaning on its front four to stop the run and letting guys like Luke Kuechly run wild in coverage.  Seriously, after watching that guy pick Russell Wilson for a touchdown last week, it seems like he has some kind of teleportation ability that was never reported to customs.  If Carson Palmer's postseason performance so far is any indicator, he looks a little too anxious to put this offense on his shoulders and throw into the kinds of heavy traffic that he really just shouldn't.  Having extra bodies in the backfield will increase the Panthers' chances of breaking up all those laser beams and nabbing an interception or three.  Like the Broncos, Carolina would do well to jam their opposing receivers at the line and make them work as hard as possible for open field. Add some bonus points [and picks] if that front four can collapse the pocket and take away Palmer's decision-making window without blitzing.

Prediction: Given these two teams' ceilings, this feels like a game where anything is possible. I think it'll come down to how these two quarterbacks fare in the biggest game of each of their careers against some top-notch defenses.  With that in mind, I'm giving the nod to presumptive MVP Cam Newton on his home turf... As a Saints fan, I hope this jinxes the Panthers severely.  Panthers 30, Cardinals 24


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
Straight Up: 6 - 2
Against the Spread: 4 - 4

NFL Divisional Weekend Awards

And so there you have it, there are still no upsets on the books in these playoffs with the top two seed advancing on either side of the bracket.  We are guaranteed that either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning will go to the Super Bowl for the tenth time in fourteen years.  Yay?  Anyway, here are some awards:

The "Where's the Beef?" Award: The Chiefs' Pass Rush
People will remember this game for Andy Reid's typically awful clock management more than anything else, but that would be underselling how good the Patriots were while overlooking lots of other problems that put the Chiefs in a situation where they needed 14 points in six minutes.  I prophesied a different outcome in my pick for this game, and a big reason for that was Kansas City's pass rush.  The Chiefs were fourth in the NFL in sacking quarterbacks this season, and they kept the pressure on the Texans well last week with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali returning to the fold.  The story was very different this weekend though - Kansas City failed to get any kind of consistent pressure on Tom Brady with two hits and no sacks despite the Patriots throwing the ball on a massive 75% of offensive snaps.  They also seemed unwilling to adjust their defensive approach after getting burned for sitting back in coverage repeatedly in the first half - I can only recall a couple of instances where they sent more than three or four linemen to the pocket, which effectively gave Brady all the time in the world to wait for receivers to get open.  Anyway, the Pats look great as usual and now have a healthy Gronk, Edelman and Vollmer back for what seems like an inevitable seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Belichick-Brady era.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs probably have another three to four good years of contention left in them in their current form, but they absolutely have to take more risks on both sides of the ball against the better teams in the AFC and stop treating the two-minute drill like this:

The Even-Our-Bad-Luck-Is-Good-Luck Award: Patriots, Cardinals (tie)
There's a mantra that I've found true in my own life as a repeat fantasy league champion this year: it's better to be lucky than good.  Of course, Super Bowl contenders usually have a healthy mix of both, and that was true for the Patriots and Cardinals this weekend.  For the Pats, two plays in particular stand out in my mind.  First, on a Chiefs' desperation fourth down play late in the game, Duron Harmon appeared to intercept Alex Smith's 28-yard pass, which in effect would have pushed the Patriots back nearly 30 yards in their own territory instead of taking over near midfield.  The turnover was reviewed though, and the officiating crew determined that the play was actually an incomplete pass, which made it even easier for New England to run down the clock.  Second, the Pats tried a pass play on their final possession that was deflected by a Chiefs defender but then caught by Julian Edelman for the game-clinching first down.  What should have been an interception on an unnecessary pass that would have given Kansas City one last shot at the end zone sealed the game the other way.  For the Cardinals, a similar deflected pass probably should have resulted in Carson Palmer's third interception in the end zone on Saturday night, but the ball ended up squarely in Michael Floyd's hands for a go-ahead touchdown.  Like New England, Arizona also called a pass play very late in the game that fell incomplete, stopped the clock and ultimately gave Aaron Rodgers 35 more seconds to work with for that miraculous, overtime-clinching Hail Mary.  And then, the Cardinals' fortunes looked grim for a moment when Packers LB Mike Neal was just a fingernail away from sacking Carson Palmer deep in his own territory to start overtime.  That only resulted in an 88-yard reception to Larry Fitzgerald that set the Cards up for the game-winning touchdown.  

The Another Twist of the Knife Award - Aaron Rodgers' Prime
If Packers fans thought things couldn't get more heartbreaking than last year's epic collapse in Seattle, Saturday's rollercoaster ride in Glendale likely plunged them into new depths of despair.  Regardless of the outcome, Aaron Rodgers had a game for the ages.  Down his top two receivers, Rodgers was the workhorse for Green Bay, scrambling around the Cardinals' pass rush and throwing open a new cast of receivers who've spent most of their time on the practice squad and special teams this year.  It wasn't the prettiest performance from a QB rating standpoint, but no one can deny that Rodgers still exists on another planet after that miraculous final drive.  After being sacked for a near safety in his own end zone with less than a minute remaining, No. 12 somehow found an open Jeff Janis 60 yards downfield for a first down.  Three plays later, he found Janis again on a Hail Mary in the end zone despite having an Arizona defender in his face as he threw.  There may not be another quarterback in the league who can make that throw once, much less twice this season.  And yet, for all the euphoria of that unbelievable moment, the Packers defense immediately gave up another big play in overtime to hand the game over in another disappointing postseason loss.  Here's a soul-crushing factoid for the Green Bay faithful: Since Aaron Rodgers became a starter in 2008, the Packers have lost in six of their seven postseasons; four of those losses have come on the final play of the game when Rodgers's offense was not on the field and the other team made the go-ahead score.  He looks as good as ever and he'll get Jordy Nelson back next season, but Green Bay's defense has done few favors for one of the best QBs in the league while he's in his prime.

The Jekyll and Hyde Award: The Carolina Panthers...  Or the Seattle Seahawks?
Everyone who writes about the NFL is almost legally obligated to call Sunday's divisional game between the Panthers and Seahawks A Tale of Two Halves.  We saw the best and "least best" of both teams in reverse order.  Carolina came out swinging both arms in a fury with two touchdowns in the game's first five minutes, while Seattle did just about everything wrong possible.  All told the Panthers scored 31 points and racked up over 220 yards of offense in the first half compared to the Seahawks' 110 yards and total shut out.  In the second half, it was obvious the Panthers were content with winding down the clock and avoiding turnovers, but things got a little dicey by the fourth quarter when the defense was failing to get stops and the offense couldn't keep the chains moving.  In the second half, the Panthers offense only mustered 82 yards and zero points while the Seahawks had 270 and 24, respectively.  Knowing the Seattle devil magic that has won them more improbable games than just about any team, I was fully prepared for the Seahawks make a stunning grab at overtime.  But Carolina managed to do just enough in the end to retain the win with a big onside kick recovery from Thomas Davis - surely the cherry on top for any Packers fan nursing that Saturday night hangover.  I don't think Carolina was "exposed" by letting Seattle back into the game since the whole second half was in prevent mode, but it'll be intriguing to see how aggressive Riverboat Ron stays next week against the equally bold Bruce Arians.  This NFC championship should be a great one.

The Future of Meh Award: The AFC Championship
I didn't really have a dog in the fight for the final game of the divisional round, but there are plenty of reasons for the Broncos to feel bittersweet about making their second AFC championship appearance in three years.  They'll be hosting the Patriots, whom they beat at Mile High back in Week 12, but watching Denver struggle against a banged up Steelers team Sunday isn't exactly a vote of confidence that they can repeat this time.  Peyton Manning had a difficult time putting a spiral on the football consistently and taking advantage of Pittsburgh's very bad secondary.  Part of that could have had to do with the wind, but Manning's receivers had plenty of open looks that were misses and/or drops.  Unless the wind is as bad or worse next Sunday, I don't see how the Broncos offense will be able to match the kind of offensive production New England has shown when its starters are healthy.  You might want to plan on having a book or crossword puzzle nearby is all I'm saying.

Playoff Picks: 2016 NFL Divisional Round

After a moderately wild Wild Card weekend, it’s time to delve into a slew of intriguing divisional round games. We’ve got three rematches from the regular season that could look very different this time around and a fourth that might end up being the most exciting of them all. Just let this intro serve as a quick PSA that special teams matter. Given the Chiefs’ kick return abilities, Blair Walsh’s shanked potential game-winner and that crafty Alabama onside kick in the college football playoffs this past week, every little bit counts when the margin of competition narrows. On to the picks!

 

 Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5)

The Run-Down: A rising underdog that just won its first playoff game in more than 20 years squares off with a perennial Super Bowl contender trying to rebound from major injuries. In other words, this is a David and Goliath matchup where the giant’s coming in a little hobbled.

How the Chiefs Can Win: The easiest way for the Chiefs to win is to put Brian Hoyer in Tom Brady’s uniform. No problem, right? With Jeremy Maclin potentially sidelined and Kansas City having few wins against quality opponents during their miraculous streak, this will undoubtedly be their toughest game so far this season. But in my mind, the Chiefs have everything they need to win in their toolbox - it’s a matter of strategically exploiting the Patriots’ few weaknesses and executing a methodical game plan despite whatever wrinkles Bill Belichick may throw their way. On offense, this team has done wonders in getting decent yardage on first down.  With the prospect of Maclin benched or limited, the Chiefs' chances of an upset could go up dramatically if they can get their power running game going with Spencer Ware and use screens and shallow crosses prominently to pick up moderate yardage early to keep their offensive options as open as possible.  Alex Smith's scrambling abilities could also come in handy in buying extra time for those sub-Maclin receivers to get open.  More than anything, the Chiefs need to hang onto the ball at all costs - these two teams are both exceptional at winning the turnover battle, and KC's margin of error will be razor-thin in this road game.  On the other side of the ball, Kansas City is looking at two potential gifts in slowing Brady down: 1) the weather, which could be sloppy; and 2) Julian Edelman coming back at less than full strength.  We'll talk more about Edelman in the Pats' section but given how similar his foot fracture is to that of Dez Bryant and Kevin Durant, he may have a tough time getting speed off the line of scrimmage and making the cuts he's used to.  The Chiefs are also one of the best defenses in the league when it comes to shutting down tight ends, and they'll need to put that to good use against Gronk.  All of these factors invite the Chiefs secondary to get physical at the snap and take Brady's many slot and screen targets off path.  The more often they can take away the first, second and third targets in the Pats' arsenal, the more effective that nasty pass rush is going to be against a guy who doesn't like to get hit and who is also down to his third- and fourth-string running backs.

How the Patriots Can Win: The good news for Pats fans is that this is one of the few teams in the NFL with enough offensive playmakers to stretch the Chiefs’ defense beyond its very high limits. That starts with getting a healthier Julian Edelman back. If he’s at 100%, Edelman is among the best in the league in finding gaps in zone coverage and getting quick separation in the slot in man coverage. He could be nearly unguardable, even against an excellent Chiefs secondary, and he could draw lots of extra attention to open up passing lanes for other receivers. If Edelman isn’t fully healthy, I would expect the Pats to use him in plenty of pick plays and decoy situations in an aggressive offensive game plan during the first half. Once KC catches on, they are deep enough in the backfield to put lesser defenders on him and focus fully on Tom Brady’s other targets as many teams have been able to do in Edelman’s absence during the regular season. Keep an eye out for RB James White in this case - he’s become a poor man’s Shane Vereen over the past month, and feeding him lots of quick screens is another way to wear down the Chiefs defense and open up the passing game on other parts of the field. Given the aforementioned weather, the Pats may have to dig deeper into their ground game than they'd like with LeGarette Blount out for the year, so they may do better to sacrifice Rob Gronkowski to run-blocking the majority of the time instead of trying to feed him passes in a bad defensive matchup. On defense, the Patriots need to get aggressive upfront to force Alex Smith into long yardage situations and also contain him when he's inclined to scramble.  Getting Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower back should give New England's pass rush some oomph as well as their run defense, more importantly.  If this game ends up in the trenches, the Pats defense will need to be ready to grind it out in those running lanes in order to get the Chiefs offense off the field.

Prediction: If there's anyone in the AFC that can really give the Patriots a run for their money, I think it's the Chiefs.  They can play tight man coverage, shut down tight ends, and find ways to keep the chains moving with lots of guys you've barely heard of.  On the other hand, the thought of picking an Andy Reid-coached team over a Belichick one is terrifying.  In the end, I've got to homer it up again for a team on a hot streak that should put up a good fight regardless of the end result.  Chiefs 23, Patriots 20

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

The Run-Down: Coming off of a dominant win against Washington and maybe taking a page from those almost-resilient Vikings, the Packers head back to Arizona in hopes of avenging an ugly 8 - 38 loss three weeks ago.

How the Packers Can Win: As abysmal as that previous meeting was for the Packers, taking better care of the ball could have put them in a much more competitive position to come back in the second half.  28 of the Cardinals 38 points were either defensive touchdown returns or offensive drives set up by Green Bay turnovers.  The Packers shouldn't treat that as a fluke though - Arizona was second only to Carolina in generating turnovers this season and recovered three of five forced fumbles the last time these two teams met.  So this offense needs to practice ball security in a big way this week, especially on the ground. As I'll get into in the next section, Eddie Lacy could help the Packer offense get into a rhythm if he can get through the pile without negative plays.  The other area Green Bay struggled mightily with three weeks ago was protecting the quarterback.  The Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times, giving him virtually no time to get through his progressions or even throw the ball away in some cases.  This past week in Washington should give Packers fans a glimmer of hope that some of those offensive line issues have been resolved, but Arizona is a stronger defensive and pass rushing team by a long shot, so they shouldn't count on it.  To mitigate the Cardinals' front, I'd expect Rodgers to take a lot of snaps out of the shotgun where he can roll towards the sideline or try to work those quick no-huddle slants that turned his fortunes around last weekend.  The only thing that can slow guys like Calais Campbell down is buying yourself more time and forcing them to run sideways on extended drives to get them out of position and out of breath.  On defense, the Packers need to contain Arizona's receivers inside and near the line of scrimmage and hope for the best in stuffing David Johnson in the backfield.  They gave up over eight yards per passing attempt and nearly five yards per carry the last time they tried to stop the Cards' juggernaut, so crowding in those skill players would give them a better chance of stalling drives and limiting Carson Palmer's options on long-yardage downs.

How the Cardinals Can Win: How do you write something compelling about a team that is superior to most on both sides of the ball, has already beaten this opponent by 30 points and has an 80% chance of winning this game a la the Football Power Index?  I guess you go back to the one truly bad loss of the season (a 6 - 36 rout at home to the Seahawks) and see what you can learn from it.  Going back to the top of this post, Arizona's biggest Achilles heel has to be its special teams unit, which let Tyler Lockett run wild in punt coverage for more than 160 yards in Week 17.  Although few teams have the kind of return skills that Lockett has shown in his rookie season, the Cardinals can't afford to give Aaron Rodgers a short field to work in after the air show he just put on in Washington.  Hopefully Bruce Arians was smart enough to make that a priority during the bye week.  The other area that the Cards can be had from time to time is with a consistent power running game.  In their three losses, they gave up four or more yards per carry including a staggering 6.3 yards per carry during Todd Gurley's breakout game.  Given that Davante Adams could be sidelined, Arizona can likely focus even more of its attention to loading up the box and pressuring Aaron Rodgers instead of dropping everyone back into coverage.  They'll need to frustrate Eddie Lacy early and contain Rodgers around the edges to keep the Packers offense one-dimensional. 

Prediction: Despite the odds and the point spread, the Packers will probably keep this game more competitive than they did last time around.  But they need a whole lot more to go right than the Cardinals do to win, so I'll take the odds.  Cardinals 31, Packers 21

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The Run-Down: A budding NFC rivalry will write another chapter in its second divisional round game in as many years.  There will be stifling defense and electrifying quarterback play - what more can you ask for?

How the Seahawks Can Win: Panthers cornerback Josh Norman was little known before his breakout 2015 season in which he earned shutdown status.  That might be bad for Doug Baldwin, but the Panthers are down to their fourth CB2, which could open things up for the Seahawks' other serviceable receivers like Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett.  Putting multiple wideouts on deep routes should spring at least one of them free and limit the effectiveness of Carolina's front seven.  With Russell Wilson now in pocket passer nirvana, airing it out early and often would put a lot of pressure on Cam Newton to match Seattle score-for-score with less talented receivers against a tougher secondary.  That worked out pretty well for the Falcons, who handed the Panthers their one loss so far this season; Matt Ryan averaged over 13 yards per completion, mostly to Julio Jones who carved up Norman on his only bad day all year.  It's hard to know what to expect out of Seattle's run game after Marshawn Lynch bailed out last week, but the Panthers are hard to run on, and given the way Wilson has played over the past month, I'd expect the Seahawks to get the most bang for their buck in the passing game.  On defense, Seattle's secondary matches up well with the Panthers' good-not-great receiving corps - well enough at least that they can continue to work in single coverage and keep linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage to spy on Cam Newton if he decides to run for it.  The thing the Seahawks will definitely have to do better than last time these teams played each other is guard Greg Olsen.  Olsen was responsible for half of Newton's passing yards that day and scored the game-winning touchdown on busted coverage - he can get open quickly and convert third downs with the best of 'em.  It may be worth Seattle taking a few gambles on third-and-medium or -long to put extra bodies on this security blanket.

How the Panthers Can Win:  As last weekend's weather-torn slugfest in Minnesota showed, Seattle is more dependent now than ever on Russell Wilson to win games.  Given Wilson's continued ascendance, that's mostly been good for the Seahawks, but it also gives Carolina a narrower focus for Sunday's game plan.  The Panthers will want to exploit Seattle's inconsistent offensive line as much as possible to tackle behind the line of scrimmage and limit the time Seahawks receivers have to get open against a banged up secondary.   Like many other quarterbacks in this week's post, Wilson is particularly good rolling out to the edges to buy time or get extra yards on his feet, so Thomas Davis & co. need to take away those outlets where possible and force him into hasty decisions that can be deflected or intercepted.  On offense, another big day from Greg Olsen would be ideal, but knowing that Seattle will be planning for No. 88, I wonder if the Panthers will go a bit more improvisational with lots of read option and play action snaps to keep the Seahawks guessing.  A recent analogy would be Clemson's offensive game plan against Alabama.  Deshaun Watson, who's been compared to Newton regularly, had tons of plays at his disposal that he could work out on the ground or through the air depending on what the Tide's vaunted defense gave him and ultimately put up nearly 500 yards against that stingy, disciplined squad. 

Prediction: As good as both of these teams have been, there are reasons to wonder about each.  The Panthers have new vulnerabilities in the secondary and have mostly matched up badly with the Seattle defense in the past despite their recent win on a busted play.  The Seahawks are still an inconsistent team that sometimes stalls on offense and gives up big plays a little more often than it used to.  I guess I'm going Carolina given that Seattle has struggled against its better defensive opponents this season while the Panthers have struggled against virtually no one.  Panthers 17, Seahawks 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7)

The Run-Down: Divisional weekend might end with more of a whimper than a bang depending on how healthy Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are.  But it's worth stopping to smell the roses for what could be one of Manning's last games as a starter.

How the Steelers Can Win: There's no denying that the Steelers' chances rest heavily on the state of Roethlisberger's shoulder and Brown's head after a predictably brutal game against the Bengals last week.  If they're both suited up and reasonably functional, that changes the complexion of this game.  In this best case scenario, Pittsburgh would do well to run a spread offense to dilute the Broncos' defensive front and give Roethlisberger tons of options in the middle of the field and long range to keep the chains moving.  The Steelers had to do this by default against Denver during their past meeting and managed to overcome a 17-point deficit in the process.  The much more likely scenario here though is that Pittsburgh is going to play without the All Pro Brown and with a quarterback with a sprained AC joint who can't air it out 55 times like last time.  It's a long shot, but my best advice would be to look at the Chiefs' recent success against the Broncos for inspiration.  If you posit that they should have won their first meeting with Denver this year too, KC has been a textbook example of how to beat this defense with a short- to mid-range dink and dunk passing game and an insistence on running the ball to wear the other side down.  The Steelers' backup running backs did an admirable job against the Bengals last week, and the committee approach could work out okay here in wearing down the likes of Von Miller and Demarcus Ware late in the game.  On defense, Pittsburgh's secondary leaves much to be desired, and if Peyton Manning is truly revitalized, it'll be hard for the Steelers to keep this one in reach.  If he's not though, the Steelers are very good at stopping the run, so daring Manning to throw might be the best route for Pittsburgh to generate some much-needed turnovers off of a wounded duck or two.  That run defense could also come in handy in keeping the Broncos in long-yardage situations where Manning can't lean on his favorite play action calls to fool the Steelers' defense.

How the Broncos Can Win: Assuming Big Ben will be hobbled and Antonio Brown will be out, I think Denver will take their chances forcing the Steelers to throw. Pittsburgh was more successful running the ball last week against the Bengals than they appeared to be expecting, and it may be their surest way to move the ball this weekend if the Broncos sell out too much in the secondary.  If Roethlisberger can't push the ball further than 5 - 10 yards downfield, Denver shouldn't have much problem getting linebacker help on guys like Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton or clogging up running lanes for Pittsburgh's backups in the backfield.  On offense, it's tempting to air it out from the get-go with Peyton Manning returning as a starter, but remember that he was on pace for an unheard of 30 interceptions before he was benched in November.  The Steelers defense will take all the help it can get in generating takeaways and giving its offense a shorter field, so Manning needs to be methodical and selective about taking riskier throws.  Even if Pittsburgh stuffs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson a few times, the Broncos should stay committed to their run game and trying to limit the number of longer throws Manning has to make.  Punting on occasion may not be the worst against a Steelers offense facing a lot of challenges.

Prediction: A week ago, I probably would have picked the Steelers in this one, but the impact of  Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown on this team cannot be understated.  Given how good the Broncos' defense already is and how bad the Steelers' secondary is, both sides of the ball favor Denver barring a medical miracle.  Broncos 22, Steelers 13


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
Straight Up: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 2 - 2

NFL Wild Card Weekend Awards

This 2016 Wild Card weekend was... well, it was a unique one.  One that mostly makes me feel sad about how some things never change for some teams and how football is a cruel game by most definitions.  Anyway, these awards are going to be great, eh?

The Let's Get This Out of the Way Because It's Actually Terrible Award: Cincinnati Bengals
At the risk of becoming a self-righteous moralizer in the unfortunate vein of Jim Nantz, I could not have hated more how the Bengals collapsed on Saturday night.  It wasn't just that they lost in such an unfathomable fashion, but that they descended unchecked into madness and very easily could have cost Antonio Brown his career.  Following a very ill-timed Jeremy Hill fumble, the defense gift-wrapped field goal range to the Steelers with two awful [and totally preventable] personal fouls - one for Vontaze Burfict's reckless, intentional helmet-to-helmet hit on Brown and one for Adam Jones jawing at a Steelers assistant on the field during the injury timeout.  The rest is history, but it was an ugly game throughout that makes me wonder whether these two teams will survive the next time they meet. Pittsburgh's not off the hook either - Ryan Shazier also laid a similar head-to-head blow on Giovanni Bernard that could have easily been penalized, and assistant coach Mike Munchak grabbed Bengals safety Reggie Nelson's hair on the sideline for another personal foul.  Between the refs' spotty calls and coaches on both sides seeming to let the inmates run the asylum, this rivalry has gotten even uglier fast, and the mode of retaliation is scary given the number of major contact injuries that have happened in these teams' other recent meetings too.  Nothing short of a battle royale would make the NFL take drastic measures here, but I'd expect officiating crews to take a very hard stance on this matchup next season.  They have to do better, and so do these players.

The Best Portmanteau for the Texans' Quarterback Situation Award: American Hoyer Story
That's the joke.  Go Chiefs!  On to New England! 

The Return of the Curse of the Monkey's Paw Award - Seattle Seahawks
Oh Seattle, you might have gotten away with another woeful offensive performance in the playoffs, but beware of whatever awaits for tempting fate.  You may recall last year that there was a string of unfortunate events for the NFC teams who squeaked by each other through questionable means.  First, the Lions lost to the Cowboys after an obvious pass interference call was retracted.  Then Dallas lost to Green Bay after the Dez Bryant catch that wasn't before Green Bay collapsed in every conceivable way against the Seahawks.  Seattle then got its comeuppance on a goal-line interception at the end of last year's Super Bowl.  So now it starts anew with the Seahawks surviving the Vikings, who held the 'Hawks scoreless through three quarters, only had to make a chip-shot field goal to win and shanked it.  Of course, I'm legally obligated to say that there are many other reasons Minnesota let this game slip away like one of those dreaded late-game Adrian Peterson fumbles and the fact that Russell Wilson burned them on a bobbled snap that should have been a 20-yard sack.  But Seattle didn't really win this one so much as the Vikings lost it, and if the monkey paw's curse is to be believed, they'll be careful about what they wish for against the Panthers next weekend.  On the other hand, what if God really is a Seahawks fan?  Not to discredit the tremendous amount of talent Seattle has, but I don't think I've ever seen another team get as many lucky breaks as this one does in recent memory.  It must have something to do with Wilson the Automaton's regularly scheduled bible verse tweets.

The Someone Needs a Hug Award: Blair Walsh
Because we are a great country, Vikings kicker Blair Walsh is probably going to get lots of hate mail and death threats this week following that shanked kick.  He doesn't deserve it, not only because it's just a football game, but also because that shank was 95% the holder's fault, even though Walsh tearfully took the blame afterwards.  Skol enthusiasts should send their blood-written oaths of vengeance to punter Jeff Locke for not one but two holds with the laces out and tilted away from Walsh's foot.  Sounds to me like it's time to introduce Locke to Ray Finkle's parents...

The Lazarus Likes That Award: Aaron Rodgers & the No Huddle Offense
True, the Packers' win Sunday was just against the Redskinks, but boy did they look more like their old selves than we've seen in a while, especially Aaron Rodgers.  After a rocky first quarter where Rodgers completed just one pass for 11 yards, he transformed back into his MVP-caliber form, working the no-huddle offense masterfully to draw substitution and offsides penalties on Washington's defense and manufacture open receivers.  He still missed some big passes downfield, which might have been due to the windy weather and/or what still seems to be an undisclosed injury to me, but his performance has to have done wonders for Green Bay's confidence going into the divisional round.  Add to that Eddie Lacy's bruising performance on the ground to extend drives in the second half, and these Packers look like they could give the Cardinals a run for their money next week.  Expect that no-huddle to appear prominently in my next playoffs preview in a few days...

Playoff Picks: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round

Ermagerrd, it's playoffs time!  And--what is that?!--we have four road-tripping wild card teams that are favored over four division winners with homefield advantage???  Nothing could possibly go wrong, but seriously, lock your wallet up tight this weekend. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Houston Texans

The Run-Down: This Week 1 rematch will spell bookends for one of these teams that no one thought had a prayer in October.  The Chiefs and the Texans are your true wild cards this weekend, and they're coming into the playoffs riding a crazy hot streak for a combined 14 - 2 win-loss record over the second half of the season.

How the Chiefs Can Win: It's hard to nitpick a team on a ten-game winning streak, but this is actually a fairly scary defensive matchup for Kansas City's offense.  The Texans thrive when they control the line of scrimmage and force opposing offenses into check downs and mid-range passes, which is pretty much Alex Smith's game in a nutshell.  Granted, Smith has had some spectacular big-arm plays in a couple previous playoff games against the Colts and Saints, but the Chiefs may have to take some risks here in getting Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce & co. a little further downfield when the coverage is right.  But I expect them to go with a heavy dose of rushing, doubling/tripling up on J.J. Watt and conservative play action passing unless Houston gets up by a couple scores.  That's because the key for KC is its soaring defense with presumptive rookie of the year/major ballhawk Marcus Peters and the possible return of Justin Houston to the lineup.  The combination of a high-pressure pass rush and a very good secondary that regularly generates turnovers can neutralize the Texans' biggest playmaker (guy named DeAndre Hopkins) and buy the Chiefs plenty of opportunities to put this one away in the end.  It worked out swimmingly in Week 1 when they forced Hoyer into five sacks and two turnovers and had the win locked up by halftime.

How the Texans Can Win: While we're on the topic of defense, the Texans have one that is just about as good as that of the surging Chiefs by most measures.  And while the natural temptation is to go after Alex Smith until he's black and blue, Houston would do better to focus on stopping the ground game that has kept that offense humming all season long, Jamaal Charles and otherwise.  Wearing down the Chiefs' offensive line and racking up tackles for a loss will put Smith in dreaded third-and-long situations where Houston can really do some damage on the blitz and hopefully create a rare turnover or two.  Kansas City is second only to the Patriots in protecting the football, and given that they've been able to score more easily than Houston this year, the Texans have a much better shot at the upset if they can gain an extra possession or two.  On offense, Houston needs a very strong day from Brian Hoyer to stave off the inevitable pass rush and maybe put some skeletons in Marcus Peters' head while he's still young.  You might see Hoyer test Peters out early with a bomb or two down the sideline to DeAndre Hopkins for that reason. Sticking largely to a spread offense and a few well-timed bubble screens may have to do to stretch out a very deep Chiefs front seven.

Prediction: I gotta confess I'm a bit of a Chiefs homer here for the sake of Mr. Lady Blitz.  I'm impressed with how well-rounded this team has become on both sides of the ball, and I like their chances of winning the turnover battle even if J.J. Watt gives them fits from time to time when they're on offense.  Chiefs 23, Texans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Run-Down: With the Ravens reeling, there's a new AFC North rivalry in town that has gotten nastier as the season has worn on.  In fact, these two teams have managed to lose A.J. Green, Le'Veon Bell (twice), and Andy Dalton to season-ending injuries over their past three games against each other.  Let the bone-crunching death march begin!

How the Steelers Can Win: Seeing how DeAngelo Williams is still questionable to suit up on this short week, the Steelers' passing attack is more important than ever.  That's pretty darn good news considering Pittsburgh has the infallible Antonio Brown and guys like Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton who can outrun a lot of good DBs.  Still, Steelers fans probably don't want to see Big Ben chuck it 40+ times in the game.  As good as this air show has been, it may not do much for Pittsburgh's time of possession, which could put an atrocious secondary on the field for too much time against the Bengals' solid offense.  Even if Pittsburgh has to dig deep into the running back bench, it could pay dividends in wearing down a Cincy defense that's very strong upfront while limiting the Steeler defense's chances of letting an inexperienced quarterback hang around too long.  I can also see Mike Tomlin/Keith Butler throwing in some new blitz packages to fluster Bengals backup A.J. McCarron.  He's been better so far than you might think and has a top ten passer rating in very limited action this season, but he's got his work cut out against a veteran coaching staff that knows this rivalry well and won't be afraid to take risks to knock McCarron out of rhythm even if they give up a few plays.

How the Bengals Can Win: The Steelers will plan on daring A.J. McCarron to throw, but that could work to Cincinnati's advantage seeing as how Pittsburgh ranks 30th in passing yards allowed.  So expect OC Hue Jackson to draw up some high-percentage short and mid-range passing plays where McCarron can get the ball out quickly without giving it to the guys in black and yellow.  That other A.J. [Green] has burned Pittsburgh for 250 yards and 2 TDs in their last two meetings, and his ability to open up the field is key to the Bengals keeping any semblance of a balance between running and passing.  But that's going to require the expert protection of this stout offensive line to stave off any of those blitzes I'm predicting and make the Steelers look foolish in man coverage.  At its heart, this offense is a run-first one, but they'll need to take some chances early in the passing game to avoid becoming one-dimensional... like they have in their last four playoff appearances...  Anyway, you might be surprised to know that the Bengals defense has been pretty good at slowing down Antonio Brown.  He's been held to less than 100 yards per game and 1 touchdown--you know, mortal numbers--during these teams' previous two meetings.  Containing Brown is a rare and good thing, but Cincy has done it at the expense of leaving Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant more open.  They'll need to get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger throughout this game or he'll shred them with the second, third and fourth available options.  The Bengals have a chance though if they can sell out on the pass with a hobbled or benched DeAngelo Williams.

Prediction: This is a tougher pick for me than what it looks like on its face - an unstoppable offense versus one that had to replace its long-time QB having the season of his life with an infant with these tattoos.  I hate it for the Bengals and their fans that there's a good chance they'll be 0 - 7 in the Marvin Lewis era for reasons arguably beyond anyone's control.  Hopefully that was enough to unjinx them so that they can have just one stinkin' well-earned playoff win.  That, and me picking Pittsburgh.  Steelers 27, Bengals 22

Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Run-Down: The Vikings would probably rather forget that 7 - 38 drubbing they took at home from the Seahawks back in Week 13.  With Russell Wilson now playing lights-out and Seattle's defense looking like that dominant unit of years past, Minnesota will have an incredibly tough visitor again this weekend.  But stranger upsets have happened.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The question in most people's minds is how can't the Seahawks win?  Wilson has been the best quarterback in the the NFL by a giant margin over the past six weeks, the Vikings offense is far too one-dimensional to pose a real challenge to Seattle's defense, and this team already beat the Vikings by 4+ touchdowns just a month ago.  As good as the Seahawks have been when they've been good though, they're kind of a hard team to pin down.  One week, they're hardly competitive against the 7 - 9 Rams at home, the next, they're blowing out the mighty Cardinals on the road.  And with a Sunday forecast hovering around zero degrees to go with an early kick-off time, Seattle needs to think slow and steady to avoid the kinds of careless mistakes that caught up to them against those Rams recently.  Given that Marshawn Lynch will finally return to the lineup, I think we'll get vintage Seahawks with lots of runs up the gut to go with some well-timed play action passes and keepers for Russell Wilson.  I could be wrong, but I don't think Wilson's recent aerial outburst will work in these conditions.  Better for Seattle's offense to wear down the stout Vikings front at the line of scrimmage and give Lynch a chance to break free in the second half.  On defense, this is definitely the Seahawks' game to lose.  They should have plenty of success sticking to man coverage and daring Teddy Bridgewater to throw the ball more than 10 yards while they bottle up Adrian Peterson in the trenches.  Minnesota just doesn't have the wealth of offensive playmakers to expose the few weaknesses in Seattle's defense on an ordinary day.

How the Vikings Can Win: So all of that sounds pretty rough for the Vikings, eh?  Indeed, the odds and the matchups are very much in the Seahawks' favor, but it's called any given Sunday for a reason.  After all, Minnesota could learn a lot from those St. Louis Rams - the only team to beat Seattle twice this year (and who've gone 3 - 1 head-to-head over the past two seasons) - because there are some striking similarities in their styles and talents.  For one, the Rams never really tried to beat the Seahawks in a shootout - they played a conservative style of offense, picking up moderate rushing yards where they could and fighting for field position over several possessions until they could open things up in scoring position.  Instead, they've destroyed Seattle many times over with excellent special teams through a smattering of trick plays and big return yards - something that the Vikings can emulate with a very good day from Cordarelle Patterson.  Although Minnesota fans would love to see Adrian Peterson go bananas and render the Legion of Boom irrelevant, this offense will almost certainly need the patience of Job, leaning on a very good defense and special teams unit to set them up for success.  So in my mind, the biggest x-factor in this game has to be the Vikings' defense.  Going back to those Rams, they forced four turnovers and 12 sacks against Seattle in their two meetings this year.  The Seahawks' offensive line has been a vulnerability all season long, allowing the sixth-most sacks in the NFL, while the Vikings defense has notched the seventh-most sacks.  Per that whole field position conversation, tackles for a loss in any form would help Minnesota keep this one in reach and hope that an opportune turnover or blown coverage end up in more points than Seattle comes away with.

Prediction: Phew.  I almost thoroughly talked myself into a Minnesota win there, eh? Nevertheless, given the weather and the Vikings' eyes-wide-open approach this second time around, I can't see this game getting nearly as out of hand as last time.  It's still Seattle's game to lose though.  Seahawks 13, Vikings 9

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Washington Redskinks

The Run-Down: Two teams trending in opposite directions will square off in wild card weekend's Black Box Game of Mysterryyyyyyy.  a.k.a, Are the Packers beyond salvation this season and is Kirk Cousins really that good?

How the Packers Can Win: Boy, has this become a much more difficult thing to rattle off than it was in years past.  By most other teams' standards, the Packers offense is still pretty good, but knowing what we know about Aaron Rodgers' potential, this season has been a mess.  If Green Bay reverted to its old ways, it wouldn't have much of a problem against Washington's mediocre defense.  And truthfully, the Redskinks' are mediocre enough that this version of the Packers could still get past them fairly easily. They aren''t particularly good at pressuring quarterbacks, which has been a challenge for Rodgers behind a struggling offensive line, and they give up nearly five yards per carry, which could help out said line and Eddie Lacy, whose performance fluctuates almost as much as his biscuit cravings.  What Washington has been good at is getting timely turnovers, so Green Bay will want to take good care of the football, especially the fumble-prone Lacy who's probably hoping for a big game to balance out the Packers' reliance on Rodgers.  On defense, this team might catch a break if RB Matt Jones is sidelined.  Green Bay isn't all that great against the run either, so a thinner stable of backs could limit Kirk Cousins' play-action abilities and allow the Packers to focus more attention on the Redskinks' surprisingly good passing game.  The interesting thing about that passing game though is that it's largely built on screens.  Trust me, as a Saints fan, I endured at least four Cousins dump offs that were well-blocked enough to end up going for 40+ yards.  Green Bay's secondary will of course need to keep DeSean Jackson in front of them, but the more important work here is to get good help in coverage from their linebackers to cut off short routes and limit the yards after catch. 

How the Redskinks Can Win: To be overly simplistic, the answer for the Redskinks is to win both lines of scrimmage.  It's no secret at this point that the Packers offense is struggling as much as it ever has since Aaron Rodgers' rookie season, and the issue is a combination of an offensive line that can't seem to buy time or create open running lanes consistently and an also-ran receiving corps that can't get quick separation.  So Washington's best shot at containing Green Bay's offense is to collapse the pocket at the snap in hopes of getting lots of hits, check downs and maybe even a turnover or two.  From my armchair psychologist perspective, Rodgers gets frustrated fairly easily when he gets knocked around, and if even the Redskinks can join the sack party, that should weigh heavily on this offense's motivation after a very frustrating season.  It would also put the Packers in a lot of 2nd-/3rd-and-long scenarios where Eddie Lacy won't be able to bail them out against a weak run defense.  On offense, protection for Kirk Cousins is big - and that's good news for Washington since this offensive line allowed the fourth fewest sacks this season.  The Packers have generated 37 sacks in winning games this season to just six in their losses, so the Redskinks' ability to buy Cousins time will be key to keeping that deadly-efficient passing attack going while taking away one of Green Bay's major defensive strategies. 

Prediction: The Redskinks have become the trendy upset pick of wild card weekend, and depending on the outcome of this one, they'll be reinforcing either that they're a good home team (that has gone 6 - 2 so far) or that they only looked good against bad competition since they've gone 0 - 3 against winning teams to date.  I gotta say, given that Washington has very little to lose while the Packers pretty much look like they want this year to be over, this might just put the cherry on top of Kirk Cousins' next contract.  Redskinks 30, Packers 28

NFL Week 17 Picks

Hard to believe, but it's the final week of the regular season.  Here's what's left to be decided before the real fun begins next weekend: 1) the winner of the AFC South (in all likelihood the Texans); 2) the final AFC wild card spot (either the Steelers or Jets); and 3) a sprinkle of seeding implications for homefield advantage and first-round byes. With that in mind, I've separated the games a bit differently today into games that matter at all for January (ranked by implications) versus games that you really shouldn't bother with unless you're a masochist or snowed in. Anyway, here's what I think:

Games That Matter: Ranked by Entertainment Value and Playoff Significance

1) Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3) - There's a legit reason this game got bumped to prime time during the final week of the regular season: the winner gets the NFC North title and hosting responsibilities for a playoff game next weekend.  After the shellacking the Packers just took in Arizona, it's hard to put a lot of faith in them against another aggressive defense.  But it's still very hard to beat this team at Lambeau, and the Vikings aren't multi-dimensional enough on offense to keep Green Bay's defense honest in this one, I think.

2) New York Jets (-3) at Buffalo Bills - How impressive were the Jets against the Patriots last week?  They've now won five straight in the well-groomed Ryan Fitzpatrick era, and they still need one more to secure their spot in the playoffs.  That's easier said than done against vendetta-prone Rex Ryan facing his old team.  Still, the Jets are more well-rounded and healthier at this point.  I hope they pull it off.

3) San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9) - Every Chiefs fan should be cheering for the Chargers this Sunday in hopes that they get to host their first playoff game since 2010.  With the Broncos' sputtering Brock Osweiler-led offense, San Diego has a decent chance of keeping this one in reach even with a few three-and-outs.  But the Chargers just haven't been very good this year - it'd be too opportune for them to start now.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers (-11) at Cleveland Browns - Okay, so I was just as surprised as you were that Ben Roethlisberger and the high-flying Steelers offense couldn't get past the Swiss cheese the Ravens call a secondary last weekend.  Playing the Browns is as good of a redemption game as they'll get, and should Rex Ryan get the better of the Jets this week, Pittsburgh can win and get in here.  The playoffs would likely be better for it.

5) New England Patriots (-10) at Miami Dolphins - A win in Miami gives the Pats homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  They missed the opportunity for an extra bye week on Sunday after falling to the Jets, but it's rare to see Bill Belichick's team whiff twice in a row.  Plus, the Dolphins are terrible.
 
6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10.5) - Undefeated no more, the Panthers, like the Patriots, are vying for homefield advantage in January this weekend.  Many will argue Carolina's loss last week is just the wakeup call they need to be prepared for a tough NFC postseason where they could face the dangerous Seahawks and/or Cardinals.  However, those folks sound like they haven't been watching the Panthers all season - they are plenty good, wakeup call or not.  Regardless, I can't see Carolina having any problems with the fledgling Buccaneers, and I'm cool with that.

7) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5) - The Texans are almost certainly in with the AFC South title whether or not they beat the nearly rebuilt Jaguars this weekend.  But that glowing feeling may not last long once the Chiefs/Broncos/Jets/Steelers touch down in Houston next weekend.  Better make this one count.

8) Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) - The Chiefs' fate is in the hands of the Chargers and Broncos this weekend, but should Denver lose, the tailgate at Arrowhead could start at 12:01am on Monday morning.  The Raiders haven't been an easy opponent for Kansas City, but there isn't a hotter team in the NFL right now, and the Chiefs are beating everyone they should these days.

9) Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - Another team that will be watching the Broncos and Chargers with bated breath is the Cincinnati Bengals.  They had the chance to lock up a bye in a head-to-head in Denver on Monday night, but it wasn't meant to be.  But since the Bengals won't know the outcome of the Broncos game until well after theirs is over, they should be motivated and able to handle the Ravens while they're in limbo over what to expect next weekend.

10) Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) - There's a chance the Panthers steamroll the Buccaneers early enough in their game that the Cardinals starters get pulled before this usually significant divisional battle is done.  On the other hand, Arizona might be quite interested in locking Seattle into the sixth seed so that they have to go to Carolina before the Seahawks have a chance to play the Cardinals again this postseason.  Who knows.  All I know is Seattle could really struggle against the red birds' spectacular defense and offense if Arizona plans to win this one.

Games That Don’t Matter: Watch Them if You Must, But Mark Your Calendars for Draft Day

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - This game technically "matters" for the Colts, but didya see all of the other dominoes above that have to fall for them to play extra football?  It ain't happening.  But now that the Jaguars are kind of okay, Indy can at least enjoy taking out their homefield aggression against the lowlier Tennessee Titans instead. 

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) - It's another lost season for the Saints and the Falcons with varying degrees of high hopes in a formerly weak division.  But they'll have one last shot to beat each other senseless in the latest chapter of this heated rivalry.  Draft position be damned, it'd be awesome to see New Orleans pull off the sweep that used to come easily for Sean Payton and Drew Brees.  But the Saints have gone 1 - 4 when I've picked them to win and 5 - 5 when I've picked them to lose, so I'll take the dumbest odds where I can get 'em.  Rise up, Failcants!!!

Washington Redskinks at Dallas Cowboys (-4) - Ugh. Thanks to my regional viewing area, I get to watch both this meaningless garbage game and the above Titans-Colts slap fight on network television.  It doesn't matter, and the Redskinks are already locked into the fourth seed in the NFC.  They could rest most of their starters and still troll the turrible Cowboys with a win.  It wouldn't be nearly as harsh as Brandon Weeden trolling Jerry Jones this week though - that was legitimately amazing.  Anyway, I think Washington rests a lot of important playmakers like Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson while Cowboys backup QB Kellen Moore fights hard to earn a job next season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5) - You saw how bad life was for Eli Manning without Odell Beckham, Jr. last weekend - may he never pull a hamstring or get a bad hangnail for the sake of the Giants offense.  On the other line of scrimmage, the Eagles will be experiencing life without Chip Kelly, which sounds like a pretty good thing according to lots of juicy anonymous sources.  So this game could be nuts is all I'm saying.  I'm guessing Big Blue is the more stable option with big-play ability on offense, but they might just take a page from their rivals and try to get Tom Coughlin out the door with a bad meaningless loss this week.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-1) - Welp, this wasn't a stellar year for either of these NFC North teams, but there are some glimmers of hope between Chicago's improving offensive production and Detroit's serviceable post-Suh defense.  I might as well toss a coin on this one, but I think a win matters a little more to Jim Caldwell than John Fox given the turbulent conditions in the Lions' front office.  Perhaps the guys in Honolulu Blue will step up for a coach they seem to like.

St. Louis Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers - So Todd Gurley is apparently in a walking boot, and that's a big relief to the 49ers who are allowing an average 125 rush yards per game.  (That's bad.)  I could still see the Rams defense giving Blaine Gabbert and friends fits regardless of how the St. Louis offense performs, but they haven't won many games this year when Gurley's been out or quiet.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.... Hey, it's the end of the season and I am the definition of mediocre at spread picks!  Probably won't be doing this again. In Week 17, I've picked nearly all favorites straight up, so let's sprinkle this last hurrah with a couple upsets:

• Ravens +9 over Bengals
• Chargers +9 over Broncos
• Patriots -10 over Dolphins

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 151 - 89
Against the Spread: 24 - 24