Q1: What makes Denver's offense so great, and where's the Achilles Heel?
By now, I'm guessing you know that the Broncos broke a ton of league records on offense including points and yards earned in a season and most passing TDs and yards thanks to that Peyton Manning guy. The "secret" to Denver's unprecedented success is hardly a gimmick - they have the smartest quarterback in the NFL who added to his embarrassment of riches this season with Wes Welker and Montee Ball. He reads defenses better than anyone and has a sixth sense for calling the right audible at the line of scrimmage. Even better this time, Manning is getting the very best out of his offensive line with the fewest sacks allowed in the league and a very serviceable running game that has kept defenses honest all season long. The Broncos could be in trouble if there's a major blizzard on Sunday that would slow down Manning's no huddle and limit his ability to distribute the ball through the air, but that seems pretty unlikely. If they do have an Achilles Heel, it would be one of two things we've hardly seen this season - knocking Manning down early and often or jamming his receivers upfront to throw off that rhythm passing game. For the Seahawks to do well against this holy terror of an offense, we may need to hear a whole lot more about Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett than Richard Sherman, in other words. But we've seen them do it with Drew Brees and Colin Kaepernick behind multiple Pro Bowlers on their offensive lines, so never say never.
Similar to the Broncos on the opposite side of the ball, the Seahawks top the NFL ranks in nearly all major defensive categories. The Legion of Boom in particular may be the best secondary we've seen in this modern pass-heavy era, and like Peyton Manning's approach to the offensive game, their success is rooted in fundamentals - dedication to film study and playing a very physical style of coverage against receivers. They are punishing in limiting yards after reception and contact in the Game of Inches. In addition to being stingy with yardage and TDs, the Seahawks led the league in turnovers this season. This could be all the difference for Seattle on Sunday since they'll likely need to give their offense extra possessions to keep pace with Denver. As mentioned above, look for Seattle to play it straight with tight man-to-man coverage and lots of extracurriculars around the line of scrimmage to keep the Broncos off-rhythm and off-route. If they have an Achilles Heel, it is allowing the power running game to get going. Even the best defense can get winded with enough persistence success up the gut, as evidenced by Frank Gore's 51-yarder back in December. Manning will almost certainly lean on Knowshon Moreno to keep the Seattle guessing, but he can also take some shots down the middle of the field since the Seahawks are at their best driving receivers to the sidelines, but it may result in some big hit casualties if they aren't careful.
Q3: What about the other side of the ball?
So if we assume the hotly anticipated matchup between Denver's offense and Seattle's defense means the Broncos walk away with 50 - 75% of the points they normally do, where does that leave things with Denver's defense and Seattle's offense? The former has been on the rise over the last month, allowing just 15 points per game, while the latter has been holding steady but nowhere near the 30 - 40 point routs they put on in the middle of the season. The heart of the Seahawks' offense is of course Marshawn Lynch, but the way Terrance Knighton & co. dismantled Ryan Mathews and then the Patriots' three-headed rushing attack should give them pause. It'd be ideal from Seattle's standpoint to wear Denver's defense down with a heavy dose of Beast Mode, but the much more favorable matchups are in the passing game. Russell Wilson's best bet may be to work the play action and use some tricks up his sleeve with Percy Harvin, since there is almost zero film on how he fits into the Seahawks' scheme to prepare for. You heard it here first, folks: the real difference in the game will be how Denver's secondary stands up to Seattle's offense.
... Otherwise known as those arbitrary factors that help all of us rationalize our way into a clear and simple answer. Well, if there's one thing I have a hard time shaking that puts the odds in the Seahawks' favor, it is that Denver had an insanely easy regular season and postseason schedule to glide through while they were racking up their Tecmo numbers. That could lead to overconfidence at the least and total shell shock at worst if Seattle dictates the game's tempo and forces pressure and/or turnovers early. When you look at recent Super Bowl winners like the Ravens, Giants and Packers, they had to claw their way up after tough losses against difficult opponents late in the season. The Broncos haven't had nearly the close calls or the grind-it-out slugfests that even the 13-win Seahawks did this season, and that could mean less battle testing to draw on in this big moment. Conversely, Seattle's lack of experience is much more pronounced than that of the Denver roster or coaching staff. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have never been to the Super Bowl while their coach and QB counterparts have. Moreover, if you believe in things like motivational destiny, this may be the last season for the Broncos' Champ Bailey and even Peyton Manning. Manning has already silenced critics this postseason with big wins in the playoffs, in the cold, and against the rival Patriots, so he's entering Sunday with some confidence and he has a locker room that would love nothing more than to get him (and themselves) another ring. You can't beat that motivation if you think the Seahawks have more reason to believe they'll be back here soon regardless of what happens.
Q5: So what's your dumb prediction already?
It would be just as well flipping a coin to give you an answer here, but I'm going to stick with the adage that defense wins championships. By most accounts the Broncos should win this one, but I've seen the Seahawks dismantle similar offenses all season long, and they won't be fooled by Denver's audibles because they play everything straight. Russell Wilson is among the best at keeping a cool head and making smart plays regardless of how stout Denver's defense has become, and I don't see the bright lights changing that on Sunday. I say Seahawks 27, Broncos 23. MVP: Russell Wilson
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 6 - 4
Against the Spread: 7 - 2 - 1
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