Playoff Predictions: 2014 Wild Card Round

It's a studs and duds kind of playoff weekend for the 2014 wild card round, especially in the AFC.  No matter, this is the kind of schedule that upsets are made of, which makes me nervous about what I'm about to throw darts at here below.  But because you asked, here are my wild card round playoff predictions:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

The Run-Down: Waaaay back in Week 16, these two teams faced off in what ended up being a lopsided Colts rout.  Now they'll will switch locations to fight for the privilege of losing to Peyton Manning at Mile High next week.  But in the meantime, they can continue to bask in the Cinderella glory of their rapid improvements from 2-win to 11-win teams.

How the Chiefs Can Win: As the Chiefs did fairly well last time, they'll need to keep the pass rush on Andrew Luck from start to finish and force the Colts to run with the tepid likes of Trent Richardson.  What the Chiefs didn't do so well last time was take care of the ball with four turnovers and five sacks on Alex Smith.  I'm guessing the sense of urgency will be a bit different in this much more meaningful game without all the snow, so expect Kansas City to stick to running the ball first to try to win the time of possession game.

How the Colts Can Win: Come out swinging on offense.  Like many ground-and-pound playoff hopefuls this season, the Chiefs (and Alex Smith) aren't built to come from behind, so if the Colts can maintain a two-possession lead or more through the third quarter, they'll have a foot on the Chiefs' neck.  Recreating that disruptive defensive front of Week 16 wouldn't hurt either.

Prediction: This one has the makings of a fist fight that really could go either way.  It'll come down to who makes fewer mistakes since neither team is particularly strong in terms of yardage on offense or defense, passing or rushing, and the Chiefs in particular thrive on creating turnovers.  On hunches that the Colts haven't had a quality win in months and that Chiefs will look much more alive this time and punish Andrew Luck into a costly turnover or two, I'm taking Kansas City.  Chiefs 21, Colts 17

New Orleans Saints at the Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

The Run-Down: Just a couple of teams that like them some offense, the Saturday night Saints-Eagles matchup cannot be characterized as anything but a shootout, unless of course you factor in how New Orleans tends to play on the road.  But it may well come down to who gets the ball last.

How the Saints Can Win: New Orleans needs to shake off those visitor jitters quick and score early and often. They've been at their best when they've forced opponents to play catchup and capitalize on mistakes in the process.  Keeping the pocket clean for Drew Brees will be important against the 32nd worst passing defense in the NFL.

How the Eagles Can Win: Per the above, the earlier the Eagles can force the Saints into a turnover and/or multiple three-and-outs, the more they'll be inside of Drew Brees' head and bring those road skeletons out to play.  Philadelphia also has a favorable matchup in the rushing game with league-best LeSean McCoy.  Keeping Shady moving and the Saints' offense of the field in the cold environs of Philly would put the Eagles in pole position for this one.

Prediction: It's time to put hope aside and prepare for the inevitable.  The Saints will have to put forth a better game against the Eagles than they have all season on the road, and even then, Philly's rushing attack poses big problems for New Orleans.  When the temperature dips below freezing, count on Chip Kelly's offense to have a field day.  Eagles 38, Saints 31

 San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

The Run-Down: A high-flying offense will collide with a stalwart defense all while the Bengals try to end a playoff win drought that has gone on since I was in diapers.  It may not be the matchup of the century, but it'll be a clash of opposing styles for two very hungry underdog teams.


How the Chargers Can Win: Philip Rivers needs to be quick and efficient in the passing game to diffuse a mean and nasty Bengals defensive front.  Keeping them on the field as long as possible could ultimately open things up for Ryan Mathews and an improved Chargers running game.  On the other side of the ball, San Diego should make every effort to stuff the run.  Andy Dalton's long game is questionable at best, so creating tough third downs could give the Chargers more possessions to tangle with Vontaze Burfict and friends.

How the Bengals Can Win:  When these teams met in Week 13, Cincinnati won this one with the kind of stingy, opportunistic defense that has been their bread and butter all season.  They forced three turnovers and kept the usually prolific Chargers to just 10 points, which would practically guarantee another win on Sunday.  If the Bengals can shut down any chance for big plays and stay balanced with the running game, they will be able to outmuscle the Chargers again.

Prediction: As wild as the Chargers' unlikely playoff berth has been, they almost (and arguably should have) lost to Kansas City's second string a week ago.  That spells trouble against a Bengals team that has never been more balanced and also happens to be undefeated at home this season.  Bengals 24, Chargers 21

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Run-Down: This renewed rivalry rounds its second year in the care of Jim Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy.  The Niners have had the upper hand for the past three contests, but the Packers have suddenly gotten a lot scarier with the return of Aaron Rodgers and a solid rushing game for a change.

How the 49ers Can Win: Run the ball and then run it some more.  The Packers are facing an uphill battle with Clay Matthews out and a defense that has struggled at times this season, and the 49ers can take advantage with their physical style of offense in cold Lambeau all while keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible.  Keeping the pressure on Rodgers might have him seeing ghosts of broken collar bones past, so expect those four defensive pro bowlers and their friends to bring the heat.

How the Packers Can Win: First, forget that 2013 ever existed.  The Packers have quite the monkey on their back after getting run over at Candlestick in last year's divisional round and then again in the September season opener.  They'll need a lights out performance on defense to stop the 49ers on the ground and contain Colin Kaepernick.  Otherwise, Green Bay's fate rests on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers to stretch the field at home, which isn't the worst thing.

Prediction: Rodgers proved last week that he's ready to play, which gives the Packers more hope than they had two weeks ago.  Nevertheless, there just seem to be too many holes elsewhere on the roster to match San Francisco, which is peaking at just the right time.  49ers 33, Packers 24