Okay, enough with the bravado or I’ll be getting an excessive celebration flag. Specific fan loyalties aside, this is the championship weekend we all pretty much wanted to see happen this year, and it’s finally here: two historic rivalries that will guarantee a Super Bowl with one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game against one of the best defenses in this pass-heavy era. Let the ill-fated predictions begin!
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5)
The Run-Down: This thing seriously needs no introduction - you know the drill when it comes to the 15th NFL matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. But because everyone else on these teams will get overshadowed all week, it’ll also be a different game than you might expect with Denver’s increasingly depleted defense versus New England’s never-better running game and an anonymous receiving corps.How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: Analysts across America will be saying that the Patriots should play keep away in the running game after a breath-taking performance by human wrecking ball LeGarrette Blount last weekend. They aren’t wrong, but two defensively minded Denver coaches like John Fox and Jack Del Rio will be paying attention to the ground game and did a pretty darn good job themselves of thwarting the Chargers in this regard last week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blount used a lot more as a decoy this time around, especially if he gets bottled up early, and I expect New England to go a lot heavier on play action passes after watching Denver nearly squander a 17 - 0 lead on Sunday once Philip Rivers got going. So the Pats can keep the chains moving with frequent running back rotations in order to catch the Broncos secondary off guard when New England needs a big play. Also, because I haven’t mentioned him at all in this paragraph, Tom Brady.
How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Third-and-long is the mantra the Patriots defense needs to keep in its psyche throughout preparations this week. It’s easier said than done against the embarrassment of riches the Broncos have on offense to catch opponents off guard for easy yardage, but New England’s secondary is good enough to stick mostly to man coverage while limiting the run on early downs. If you weren’t aware, Peyton Manning has had a pretty good year, but he’s still vulnerable to turnovers and pressure when he feels forced to carry the down - half of his interceptions and sacks this season have come on third down in fact. If the Pats can generate even half of the interceptions they had against Andrew Luck last week, they'll have a real shot.
How the Broncos Can Win on Defense: The line of scrimmage is the key battle for the Broncos' defense on Sunday. With Tom Brady and a couple of his receiving weapons ailing, the Pats will take their chances with the running game after racking up 230 yards and 6 TDs on the ground last weekend. The Broncos certainly have the chops to stop the run without loading up the box, which will be critical to stalling New England early while Peyton tries to widen the point margin. In the secondary, the Broncos may well sell out on covering "Minitron" Julian Edelman and take their chances with the many also-rans Brady is squeezing yards out of. Regardless of the scheme, the more successful Denver's defense is early, the more one-dimensional the Patriots' offense will become without the time or luxury to repeat a rushing performance like last week's.
Prediction: My sense is that this game will all come down to tempo. Denver wants a track meet and New England wants a full twelve rounds. I'm very much inclined to pick the Patriots simply because they've had the upper hand far more often than not over these 15 meetings. But they had to have a whole lot go right to beat the Broncos earlier this year at home, and all signs point to this being Peyton Manning's year. Broncos 31, Patriots 24
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
The Run-Down: The best young rivalry in the NFL today just got a whole lot realer with our third showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers this season. Seattle has had San Francisco's number at CenturyLink the last two times these teams faced off there, but the Niners are riding an impressive streak of road wins and have to be feeling more confident this time around.How the 49ers Can Win on Offense: Goodness, how do you even begin to parse out differences--and therefore competitive advantages--between these two teams? The 49ers and Seahawks are averaging the same YPG on the ground while Seattle has a slight edge in the passing game (about 18 yards more per game than San Fran), but that's for the whole season. That doesn't take into account the improved productivity Colin Kaepernick has had since the return of Michael Crabtree or the reintroduction of San Francisco's dangerous read option style. The 49ers certainly won't win this one on offense alone, but they have a lot more choices than when they last went up to Seattle in September to spread that formidable defense out and trick them into some [rare] blown assignments. Sticking to the ground game with different sets in the backfield is key to keeping the Seahawks honest and avoiding turnovers at all costs. It may take just 3 good drives and 0 turnovers to have a shot if the Niners defense holds up its end of the bargain.
How the 49ers Can Win on Defense: Hopefully the 49ers defense will eat its Wheaties on Sunday morning. Uncharacteristically, they let the Seahawks put up 71 points in their last two CenturyLink meetings. Luckily for them, the Seahawks--and Russell Wilson--have looked a whole lot more vulnerable lately than they used to, even at home. The key is pressure at the line, and perhaps counterintuitively, forcing Wilson to beat them with his arm. With Percy Harvin unlikely to play, the 49ers can invest more in containing No. 3 and Marshawn Lynch and wearing down an offensive line that has seen better days. Stuffing these two will surely limit the Seahawks' big play ability and frustrate a hostile but arguably insecure Seattle home crowd when every possession matters.
How the Seahawks Can Win on Defense: Both of Seattle's recent routs on San Francisco were predicated on turnovers. In fact, they forced most of the 7 turnovers over the course of those two games early on so that the 49ers--and Colin Kaepernick in particular--never got into a rhythm. With that kind of homefield advantage, I could definitely see this historically fantastic unit take some risks in stripping the ball and/or jumping routes to create that same kind of momentum on Sunday. But considering the way the Seahawks kept the usually-potent Saints' offense in check last weekend without many turnovers, their best bet is to keep the pressure on San Francisco's line to force short passes/screens and inefficient rushing. This unit is peerless when it comes to taking away yards after contact and yards after catch. Limiting the space and time Kaepernick has to work in will force San Francisco into tough third downs where he'll have to throw the ball against the league's best secondary.
Prediction: In full disclosure, I'll be rooting for the Seahawks this time around since they've only been to the big dance once and have never won one. But something tells me this is going to be a different kind of game with San Francisco getting healthier, less intimidated on the road and more experienced in the playoffs while the Seattle offense has floundered as of late. 49ers 20, Seahawks 17
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 5 - 3
Against the Spread: 6 - 1 - 1
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