Playoff Predictions: 2014 Divisional Round

Davids, Goliaths, and doppelgangers headline this weekend of divisional playoff games.  Given the upsets and fireworks we already saw on wild card weekend, all bets are off, meaning don't take anything you're about to read below too seriously:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Run-Down: The Saints travel to the ninth circle of visiting team hell this Saturday to try to avenge the 7 - 34 drubbing they received a month ago, but the Seahawks will start their postseason in the best position they've ever had to take home a Lombardi.

How the Saints Can Win: On offense, settle down quickly with high-percentage rushing and passing plays and don't give the Seahawks opportunities for turnovers.  A long, sustained early drive will help calm the 12th Man and maintain the Saints' confidence on the road after a surprisingly solid wild card win.  On defense, getting to Russell Wilson consistently is key; he's completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown for 60 fewer yards on average in losses this season with the Seahawks' recent home loss to Arizona is a blueprint.

How the Seahawks Can Win: As they have all year, the Seahawks should approach this as a defense-first kind of game.  They kept the Saints to just 12 first downs last time around, forcing an early turnover and taking Drew Brees completely out of the game by the third quarter.  On offense, Russell Wilson must be licking his lips with an increasingly thinner New Orleans secondary.  Shredding them with a variety of targets throughout the game will keep them off balance and open things up for Marshawn Lynch to close things out.

Prediction: If I was able to jinx the Ravens to victory a year ago, I'll do my best with the Saints this time around.  Clearly, Seattle should have the upper hand in this game with superlative balance and homefield advantage, but my guess is that this will still be a bit closer than that rout back in December.  Seahawks 28, Saints 23

Indianapolis Colts at the New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Run-Down: The winningest quarterback in the game today hosts an up-and-coming star who refuses to lose.  Defenses need not apply.

How the Colts Can Win: Bring on the shootout. It’s no secret that the Colts have struggled in the running game this season, and the unflappable Andrew Luck showed us last week he can torch the league’s better defenses with big plays. Keeping pace with Tom Brady in this department may be Indy’s best chance for an upset since the Colts’ receivers are arguably the better of the two squads. Alternately, pass rushing great Robert Mathis needs to have a big day against Brady to give Luck enough opportunities if the Colts offense stalls. As we saw in last year’s AFC championship against the Ravens, Tom Terrific tends to lose steam when the pocket collapses.

How the Patriots Can Win: TY Hilton, meet Aquib Talib. New England’s best corner is surely a bright spot for an injury-riddled defense, and shutting down Andrew Luck’s favorite target will go lengths to limit the Colts’ big play offense. I’m positive Belichick is preaching as I type about keeping those receivers in front of his secondary so that the Patriots are in full control of the game’s tempo. To that end on offense, don’t be surprised to see New England run the ball a substantial amount along with short-range screens to control time of possession. It was just about this time last season that Shane Vereen became a guy that people know about for taking a lot of pressure off of Tom Brady against the Texans Pro Bowl-heavy defense.

Prediction: The Colts continue to defy the odds this year, which is a particularly scary thing after watching that 28-point comeback last week. But lightning doesn’t tend to strike twice against defensive masterminds like Bill Belichick, and I believe the Patriots will have Luck’s number with fewer injuries and a greater sense of caution in the 4th quarter than the Chiefs did. Patriots 30, Colts 20

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (PK)

The Run-Down: Two of the very best in ground-and-pound and the read option will have a rematch after a grueling 10 - 9 Panthers victory in San Francisco earlier this season.  And luckily for parity's sake, both of these teams present matchup problems for the NFC-best Seahawks if the Saints don't down them first.


How the 49ers Can Win: San Francisco is certainly physical enough to give the surging Panthers a run for their money on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but if there’s an area that they have a clear advantage, it’s in opening up the field on offense. When these teams last met, the Niners didn’t have Michael Crabtree at all or Vernon Davis for most of the game. This time, Colin Kaepernick can use both along with Anquan Boldin to get vertical against a suspect Panthers secondary and subdue a front seven that sacked him six times in Week 10.

How the Panthers Can Win:  Carolina’s bread and butter all season long will continue to be its biggest asset on Sunday - disruptive defense at the line of scrimmage and stingy tackling from its stable of linebackers to limit yards after contact for Kaepernick and Frank Gore. The less time the Panthers give No. 7 to get the ball out of his hands, the more likely they’ll be to pressure him into mistakes and 3rd-and-long situations like last time. On offense, Carolina will need a season-best effort from its running backs to wear down the 49ers defense and keep moving the chains (or getting into some very manageable 4th-and-short situations that Riverboat Ron loves so much).


Prediction: This one has the feel of going down to the wire, and truthfully, either team would be fun to watch against Seattle assuming my other NFC pick pans out. With more postseason experience and more diverse talent on offense, I give the 49ers a slight edge.   49ers 17, Panthers 13

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

The Run-Down: The surprising Chargers continue to defy the odds with a trip to Denver in the divisional round.  Peyton Manning is coming off the best season in quarterback history, but Mike McCoy will try to pull off the upset with his new team, one Manning has never beaten in the playoffs in fact.

How the Chargers Can Win: If you don’t believe in Peyton Manning cold weather/playoffs myths, the Chargers’ stunning upset in Denver a month ago will be hard to replicate, but it certainly wasn’t by accident. San Diego was methodical in Week 15, running the ball over 40 times and winning time of possession by almost 20 minutes.  Wearing the Broncos' Von Miller-less defense down again is essential to keeping Manning on the bench and allowing for late scoring opportunities if the lead is within reach.  On defense, the Chargers need to keep Manning to short check-downs and bottle up the running game as they did against the Bengals last week - When No. 18 gets frustrated, he tends to get less accurate and more prone to turnovers a la last year against the Ravens.

How the Broncos Can Win: The same way Denver has all season long: come out with guns a blazin' before the San Diego secondary can settle in.  Interestingly, the Broncos are 2 - 3 this season when the margin of victory is 7 points or less, so they'll want to give Manning as many early opportunities as possible to build up an insurmountable lead.  For the defense, that means keeping the heat on Philip Rivers to go three-and-out and turn the ball over, especially in the first half.

Prediction: Maybe it's the fact that Chargers coach Mike McCoy knows Denver inside and out or that Peyton Manning has never beaten this team in the postseason, but I think we're in for a much closer contest than the spread would suggest.  The Broncos by a nose only because they should win.  Broncos 38, Chargers 36


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
In Wins: 1 - 3
Against the Spread: 3 -1