Week 17 Picks for Every NFL Game

It's hard to believe we're already at season's end after a topsy-turvy changing of the guard in the NFL this season.  The AFC will bring back at least 4 of 6 teams that competed in the 2013 playoffs, but then there's that stunning 9-game improvement for Andy Reid's Chiefs and the Texans' 13-game losing streak that already cost Gary Kubiak his job.  On the NFC side of things, it's possible that only 2 teams (Seahawks, 49ers) will make consecutive playoff appearances this year while the vastly improved Saints, Eagles and Cardinals would give just about anything to be in that other conference even if they squeak in.  Anyhow, it's been a humbling but enjoyably crazy year in the picks, so without further adieu, here are my final regulation picks of 2013:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears - It's do or die for two of the oldest rivals in the game for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Christmas has finally come for Packers fans with the return of Aaron Rodgers.  I have a feeling he's going to have his vengeance on the team that took him out for 6 weeks in the first place and give this team a new spark at just the right point in time.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Some might have thought my 8 - 8 prediction for the returning Super Bowl champions was a little harsh, but GM Ozzie Newsome made it pretty clear this would be a rebuilding year for Baltimore.  Unfortunately for the Ravens, who need a win and some help to get into the playoffs Sunday, they probably weren't expecting to be so vulnerable with their running game this year.  Without a healthy Joe Flacco, they have little chance of getting past the quietly surging Bengals and will miss their first playoffs of the John Harbaugh era.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Dallas Cowboys - Ah, that familiar holiday feeling of the Cowboys entering a Week 17 elimination game.  This is just how things tend to go in the NFC East, and it's a bummer that Tony Romo probably won't be there for a Dallas team that has little else it can rely on these days.  Either way, there's no denying the Eagles' rise to power with stellar play from LeSean McCoy and Nick Foles.  In fact, they're 6 - 1 since the start of November and should have this one in the bag against the Cowboys' miserable defense, Romo or no.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals need this game more than the 49ers technically do, but there are stakes either way between two defensive powerhouses.  Colin Kaepernick hasn't been as productive or cautious with the football against the grittier defenses in the league, so I expect Arizona to give him everything he can handle.  It sure helps to have Michael Crabtree back though.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Carolina Panthers (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons - Confession: this pick is as much about my own self-interested hopes for this game as it is about scientifically unproven intangibles.  It'd be nuts for the Panthers to drop this one after having the breakout season they've been waiting for, but it's also very likely to be Tony Gonzalez's last NFL game.  Cam Newton just isn't as crisp without Steve Smith in the lineup.  And if the Falcons showed us anything in that heartbreaker in San Francisco this past Monday, they've kept their pride and their fight alive long after they had a reason to do so.  Believe me, it's still hard to root for those Dirty Birds, but they ought to give No. 88 a proper farewell at the Georgia Dome for a helluva career... and give the Saints another division title.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) - Do you suppose Dolphins fans are a little on edge after one of the worst offensive performances of the 2013 season?  Respond they must to play on into January, but it won't be a cakewalk against a Jets team trying to salvage any hope for coach Rex Ryan.  I'm picking Miami for their relatively good home record and much higher stakes, but it might not be pretty.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-9) - The Patriots still need to take care of business in this game to lock up a first-round bye and, ever so implausibly, the chance for the #1 seed.  As they've proven for over a decade under Bill Belichick, I think they can handle the pressure here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-12.5) - There may be a lot of questions about the Saints [ostensibly] heading into the playoffs after this week, but their performance in the Superdome ain't one of them.  The sense of urgency could not be higher for New Orleans right now, and in the comforts of home, they should give fans a game to remember and Greg Schiano one to forget.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5) - We can talk matchups and strategy all day between the divergent styles of these divisional opponents, but the calculus is simple: the Chargers have something to play for and the Chiefs don't.  The Chiefs are also locked into a wild card spot and have every reason to build in that bye week now.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - So the Seahawks finally dropped a game at home after two years of dominance.  Don't expect that pattern to repeat itself this week with the Rams.  Don't get me wrong, St. Louis has proven itself just as potent in the defensive game as just about any other NFC West team this year, but the loss of Chris Long is devastating for Jeff Fisher's next-man-up squad.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7) - Aren't perverse incentives fun?  The Texans have absolutely no reason to win this game and forego major dibs on securing the quarterback they so desperately need in the draft.  They probably don't want any ACL tears to the likes of Bernard Pollard either in the meantime.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Cleveland Browns - What a fitting end for these teams in the Factory of Sadness.  It was a season of bitter disappointment and continued aging for the Steelers and yet another 4-to-5 win plateau for the Browns.  I shudder to think which midwestern media markets will get stuck with this one over just about any other game on TV Sunday, even maniacal, briefly victorious Steelers fans.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3) - Let the Hot Seat Bowl begin!  For the record, I'm still a Leslie Frazier fan and hopeful that the front office takes a long hard look at their own miserable record of quarterback also-rans before showing him the door.  Jim Schwartz, on the other hand, has had the best wide receiver in the game, two versatile running backs, a QB the Vikings would kill for, and one of the biggest defensive lines in the league, and he's mostly turned all of that to crap.  Therefore, the Lions should win this one just as they should have won about 3 more games in the past 6 weeks.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) - The Giants can win this one, I guess.

Indianapolis Colts (-11.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Welcome back to mid-season form, Colts and Jaguars!

Denver Broncos (-12.5) at Oakland Raiders - There's only one thing to watch in this one: how far out of reach will Peyton Manning make that single-season TD passing record?  My bet is 54 on the year whilst surpassing Drew Brees's single-season yardage record.  Sob.


To recap another way, here are my playoff seed predictions:

AFC
1. (bye) Denver Broncos
2. (bye) New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. (bye) Seattle Seahawks
2. (bye) New Orleans Saints
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Carolina Panthers



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 149 - 90 - 1