December 5, 2013

Week 14 Picks for Every NFL Game

Oh, hi!  Here are my Week 14 Picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - This key battle for the top of the NFC South--and very likely the #2 seed in the NFC--is our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Usually I try to be fair about my beloved Saints, as I’ve picked against them for two out of their three losses, but emotionally I’m having a hard time accepting that they may well lose this one too. The Panthers are every bit as tough of a matchup on both sides of the ball as the Seahawks were, and they’ve had more time to plan and rest for this one than New Orleans. I can’t say with confidence that the Saints will win this game, but I’m hoping the Superdome and a big chip on Drew Brees’ shoulder will carry them past white hot Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - They’re not perfect, but the Bengals are making a pretty solid case that they will own the AFC North this year. Now they have the chance to surpass the Colts as the #3 seed in the conference, which would mean playing a 6th seed that may not have a winning record and “getting to” go to New England instead of Denver if they finally win that elusive wild card round. The Colts still have some fight left in them after they outlasted the Titans last week, but Indy just doesn’t look as solid against stout, disruptive defensive lines. Guess who has one of those?

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) - In somewhat of a parallel to the Colts-Bengals game above, the Lions and Eagles share the same record and hopes to nab a divisional spot in the playoff seeding on the NFC side of things. If there’s one thing these two teams have in common, it’s a high-octane offense that can hang big aerial and ground plays on opponents week after week. Yet to toss his first interception this season (!), Nick Foles has the edge in terms of ball control. Still, Detroit’s defense looks better equipped to keep the ball in Matt Stafford’s hands if this one comes down to a shootout.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) - San Francisco would need divine intervention to reclaim the division over Seattle with just four weeks to go in the regular season. Unfortunately for the 49ers, they need this game a whole lot more than the Seahawks do, but I don’t think Pete Carroll intends to roll over for arch nemesis Jim Harbaugh when his team is on the bubble for a competitive NFC wild card spot. This may be the last time Seattle needs to prove they can win on the road, and they’re 5 for 6 there so far this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations


Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - There’s no sense in even trying to predict where the Steelers will land this week or any other week this year. They let Joe Flacco air it out on them on Thanksgiving to great effect, and I have to believe ex-Steeler Mike Wallace has similar designs for revenge when he returns to town with the Dolphins this weekend. The chance that Le’veon Bell won’t play after a brutal concussion last week adds more cause for concern to this limited offense. These are exactly the kinds of reasons that Pittsburgh will still win this weekend.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7) - This is a Well Drink affair simply because it gives the Ravens another opportunity to build some cushion for their wild card spot. The Vikings have shown in the past few weeks that they aren’t going down without a fight, but with Matt Cassel filling in and a very good Ravens front seven, Minnesota will probably see the end zone even less frequently than Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12) - For all the [deserved] fuss the Kansas City Chiefs have gotten for their stingy defensive front this season, the Titans aren’t too far behind. It was a blast watching them dismantle the Colts’ offensive line for 95% of the game last week, and maybe Jurrell Casey and company can make some of that same noise at Mile High. Nevertheless, in the same way that Alex Smith was never going to outduel Peyton Manning, so shall it be for sad, sad, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6) - If the theme of the week so far is defensive might, this one is second only to the fellow NFC West rumble between the Seahawks and 49ers in the level of punishment bound to take place. It makes you wonder how the Rams or Cardinals would fare in another division if they weren’t having to face Seattle and San Francisco four times a year. Anyhow, an underrated part of Bruce Arians’ Cardinals that I’ve failed to acknowledge adequately is how much better Carson Palmer looks now than he has in years. He might get a little beaten up by DE Robert Quinn from time to time, but with a defense like the Cardinals have and weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Palmer can keep an unlikely wild card bid in reach.

New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3) - Do you ever wonder if Eli Manning and Philip Rivers still think “what if?” about their musical chairs in 2004? This is sarcasm on some level, but it’s also interesting that both players have ridden the roller coaster of highly productive/efficient seasons and jaw-dropping mental mistakes with very different results over the past decade. I was surprised to see that these two teams currently have the same 5 - 7 record since Rivers is clearly having the better statistical year and a steadier supporting cast. Despite the Chargers having some unlucky bounces, they are the better team and they’re playing at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1) - The prime time lights always throw Tony Romo’s meddle into question, and Monday night with the NFC East on the line is no exception. Lucky for Romo, this Bears defense isn’t nearly as healthy/peaking as they were last season when they intercepted No. 8 five times. This is no cakewalk for Dallas, especially if the Chicago weather gets to be Chicago weather, but having Sean Lee back in the lineup could pay dividends for the Cowboys against backup Josh McCown.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest


Houston Texans (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Hey - these Jaguars are actually fun!  Good for Gus Bradley in turning some kind of corner in the locker room that Jacksonville might get to build on in 2014.  If only the much more talented but snakebit Texans could say the same.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Washington Redskins - The Chiefs have been on quite the downtrend, going 0 - 3 after starting the season 9 - 0.  Luckily for them, Washington's entire season has been a downtrend, and this is the perfect opportunity for the wild card lock Chiefs to regain some confidence before January.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11.5) - When your options at QB are a concussed Brandon Weeden, a concussed Jason Campbell or freshly signed Caleb Hanie, you might as well punt on every first down.  Watching Aqib Talib shut down Josh Gordon will be interesting for about a quarter.

Oakland Radiers at New York Jets (-2.5) - Similar to the Browns above, this game seems like a foregone conclusion if we assume the Jets will need to throw the ball at all.  If only they'd had their eye on undrafted benchwarmer Matt McGloin at the beginning of the season...

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - If these teams had 2 - 3 more wins under their belt, this could be a Well Drink kind of game between two interesting and underrated defenses.  But in the latest Buccaneers Futility Bowl, Tampa will likely do just enough to keep Greg Schiano around for another year.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Off) - So Vegas is too chicken to even call this game with Aaron Rodgers' playing status on the line.  I suppose the Falcons would much rather play Matt Flynn than Rodgers, but with all the winter weather coming through as we speak, the Packers still have the edge with Eddie Lacy over this beleaguered Southern dome team.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 120 - 71 - 1

No comments:

Post a Comment