Week 15 Picks for Every NFL Game

After a weekend that included our first in-season coach firing, a successful last-minute onside kick, a game with five touchdowns in the final two minutes, a narrowly thwarted lateral touchdown, and one of the snowiest games I've ever seen with nary a field goal or PAT even attempted, Week 15 has no way of living up to those kinds of expectations despite some key matchups for January's sake.  In fact, I can't even justifiably put more than 2 games out of 16 on the Top Shelf this week.  Nevertheless, the show must go on (even if I'm the laziest unpaid blogger with much fewer posts than usual to show for it).  Here be my Week 15 Picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Baltimore Ravens a Detroit Lions (-6) - Talk about two unpredictable teams with sky-high stakes in the game.  The Lions and Ravens are holding on for their dear playoff lives with 7 - 6 records and conference/division rivals breathing down their necks.  A loss this weekend for either team this weekend means unicorn odds of playing in January, so the Desperation Bowl is also the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  I'm digging Detroit with homefield advantage and a much steadier offense than the hot-and-cold Ravens.

New England Patriots (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Patriots probably shouldn't win this one, just as they shouldn't have won against the Browns, Broncos or Saints this season.  Meanwhile, Miami ought to throw the kitchen sink at New England this weekend to stay within reach of that hotly contested 6th seed.  When it comes down to it, I just trust the Pats with their backs against the wall a whole lot more than I trust the Dolphins - they've already proven they can win some games that way, Gronk or no Gronk.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.5) - Peyton Manning is a freakin' robot. 'Nuff said.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Between the time difference and both teams' improvements over the course of the season, this game could be closer and better than you think even though the Bucs are only playing for pride.  I really like the way Colin Kaepernick has been playing since Michael Crabtree has gotten back into the lineup, so I give them the edge despite the steady play of Tampa's "who?" cast of Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans - For anyone wondering how much of an X factor the Honey Badger has been for the Cardinals, Sunday's your chance to find out how they fare in his absence.  These two outstanding defenses should keep things close, but I never thought I'd say how much more I trust Carson Palmer right now than any second or third tier QB.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams - Despite the Saints' dominant win over the Panthers last Sunday night, they'll have to earn every yard against Robert Quinn's Rams.  It's definitely a game to be wary of even with St. Louis continuing to play through major challenges and injuries on offense.  I'm hoping those very challenges give Drew Brees & co. enough chances to put more points on the board and clinch that coveted NFC playoff spot.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-1) - Oh sure, Josh McCown was impressive against the very worst defense in the league on Monday night, but did you notice that Jason Campbell actually racked up 391 passing yards to McCown's 348?  It sure helps when you've got Josh Gordon having one of the best game stretches in NFL history.  I'm nervous about picking the Bears with a beat up defense and a QB performance that still feels a little knee-jerk to get too excited about, but they're still the Cleveland Browns for a reason.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11.5) - So the narrative is that the Panthers just aren't built to play catch up when they can't methodically grind an opponent down through the 4th quarter.  Geno Smith should help them out there just fine on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - Reader beware - I may change this one if Aaron Rodgers gets enough deer antler spray to play on Sunday.  If he plays, how could you not pick an ailing No. 12 after seeing the ailing-er Dallas defense get shredded yet again this season?  Matt Flynn and Eddie Lacy wouldn't be a cakewalk for these Cowboys either, but I have to admit they are totally overshadowing the great season Tony Romo's having.  On Romo's shoulders, Dallas has a chance... without Aaron Rodgers playing.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers - I joke every week, but I'm certain the Steelers will win this one without having any business winning it simply because I did not pick them.  You follow?  Pittsburgh seems ever-so-slightly better than their record, but the Bengals have actually earned theirs.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-7) - What a trap game.  Kirk Cousins may well take a page from spirit animal Matt Flynn and try to play his way to a starting gig somewhere else when the season ends.  The Falcons, on the other hand, only do themselves a disservice by moving farther down the draft order away from that golden pass rusher they so desperately need.  But if we assume football is just football, Atlanta is still a better team than Washington, and their coach has job security.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at New York Giants - You know, as much as I [and the rest of the world] have beaten up on the New York Giants this season, they may have gotten the shortest end of the scheduling stick.  They've played 9 of 13 games against teams that have made or could still make the playoffs at this point including the Broncos, Chiefs, Panthers and, by this time next week, the Seahawks.  So a "just get it over with" attitude is highly likely against the best team in the conference on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - The Houston Texans are hoping for a safe and rewarding Capital One Bowl for Javedeon Clowney this season.  I guess they have another one of those football games on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Am I picking the Jacksonville Jaguars for the second week in a row?  You betcha.  It may not work out, but give Gus Bradley tremendous credit for keeping this perennially downtrodden team reason to hope for better days ahead for the first time in years.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings without Adrian Peterson are like new stadiums without exorbitant amounts of public subsidies... zing!  But seriously, the Eagles will destroy them.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders - The only thing that would prevent KC from covering the spread is if they get to rest their starters by the time the dust settles for all those other amateur AFC wild card hopefuls.  (Hint: they can't because the Ravens play Monday night)


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 5
Season Record: 131 - 76 - 1