December 4, 2013

Week 13 Recap and Five Deserving MVP Runner-Ups

What a weekend - apologies for the lateness and relative lack of posting recaps this month. I should have been squared away while the Seahawks-Saints game was on last night, but then Walking Dead reruns were looking like a better option by halftime. More on that and everything else from a pretty good week of mostly college football in your Week 13 recap:

Week 13: The Good Stuff


The 12th Man - Let’s just get this one out of the way. Nobody is going to beat the Seahawks this season, and they seem like the perfect team to play in the Meadowlands with a ferocious ground-and-pound style. Even with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond out and Marshawn Lynch held to under 50 yards of rushing, Seattle didn’t bat an eye in having one of its most dominant performances of the season against the supposedly second-best Saints. Russell Wilson was unflappable on the ground, against the blitz and in double coverage despite playing without Percy Harvin or Sidney Rice. The league-best roster depth here sort of makes you sick, but there’s no question in my mind that the Seahawks have earned every ounce of where they are.

AP's Hero Ball - Especially in the NFC, a growing number of teams are playing only for pride at this point including the Vikings and the Bears. So credit Adrian Peterson for putting on a 211-yard show to be proud of and giving the Vikings a chance to win despite having to tap into their QB bench early on Sunday. Minnesota has shown more fight in the last couple of weeks than they have since last year’s surprising playoff season, so I’m hopeful that underrated Leslie Frazier gets to keep his job. If he does though, he owes one heckuva fruit basket to this reigning MVP who had some unbelievable plays in overtime to get the Vikings in field goal range and quash Chicago’s playoff hopes for the second time in as many years.  Peterson is also now the third-fastest RB to reach 10,000 career yards.

All of the College Football - There were a lot of close games and even a couple of overtimes this week in the NFL, but they didn’t hold a candle to what happened in the wild, sordid world of Division I football this weekend. For my own reasons, I thought the UNC-Duke game was fantastic and am stunned that Duke now has a better win percentage than the Saints this year. Two obvious but deserved standouts were Ohio State-Michigan and Auburn-Alabama. If hindsight is 20-20, I have to confess I really liked Michigan’s decision to try a two-point conversion before the snap. With the Wolverines being big underdogs and having nothing to lose, it was gutsy to say the least to put the game on the line then and there instead of taking it to overtime. Of course, Michigan bit off more than it could chew in execution, but going for two instead of a PAT in that situation is something you may only see once or twice in a lifetime and perhaps less now that the Wolverines have made it look even less attractive. Auburn-Alabama was an instant classic that will keep Nick Saban up at night for months and the rest of us talking for years after. It’s easy to argue that Alabama certainly lost the game more than Auburn won it, but this is the kind of stuff that Denzel Washington/Gene Hackman movies are made of. With so many contributing factors in a game like football, close games come down to what you do with whatever opportunities are given to you. And as far as that goes in this one, we’ll be seeing that Chris Davis 109-yard TD run alongside Christian Laettner’s buzzer beater and Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary for the rest of college sports.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 13 Prediction - I was pretty woeful on my picks against the favorites this week, so there’s not a lot to write home about. But I was on the right side of history in expecting Nick Foles to continue his unexpectedly good run at QB. If only Andy Reid had known sooner last season:
  • "Nick Foles has been more hot than cold this year, which should help against a very good Cardinals secondary and with the real glue of Chip Kelly’s offense, LeSean McCoy. In a game that could go either way, I like the Eagles after the bye at home."

Week 13: The Bad Stuff


The Sad, Sad Saints - I may be overreacting, but Monday night in Seattle might be a turning point for the Saints in a bad way. Granted they looked like they wanted nothing more than to get out of CenturyLink by the middle of the second quarter, but New Orleans just hasn’t been as good on the road or against more aggressive, physical opponents this year. Especially after travel and lodging challenges that set the team back another day on a short week, the Saints are in real trouble of losing the top spot in the NFC South to the Carolina Panthers as early as Sunday. My cynical and yet closure-oriented perspective is that Monday night told us everything we needed to know about how they would fare against just about anyone in the cold New Jersey air in February. Even so, it was a disappointment to see a team that has generally been so good at staying within reach of a win to the end phone it in after about ten minutes of Twelfth Man hell.

The Sadder, Sadder BillsOn the bright side, Buffalo may end up securing a better draft position this year than in the many 6 - 10 years past. But what a way to lose a game to a Falcons team that hardly wanted to win at all. Buffalo coughed up the ball twice in critical late game situations - first when the game was tied in the final minute of regulation while the Bills were in field goal range and second when Scott Chandler fumbled after a wide open reception in overtime that set up the game-winning field goal for Atlanta. On the flipside, kudos to the Falcons for never saying never when there’s little reason left to fight this season. They could take a page from Buffalo and win their way out of a good draft position.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 13 Prediction: As has been my experience with fantasy football this year, I hate it when a game looks like it’s going just your way until the last couple of minutes. That’s where the Titans found themselves on Sunday when they held the Colts to field goals until the last two minutes of the game after sacking Andrew Luck five times, forcing two fumbles and an interception. Also, I benched Adam Vinatieri… sigh:
  • "...With Tennessee desperately trying to hang on to the 6th seed in the AFC, this one could have the feel of a playoff game. The Colts may be the better team on paper, but with a stalled running game and Andrew Luck having to do so much more with less, the Titans defense looks to have the upper hand in this one."

Week 13 Feature: Five Deserving MVP Runner-Ups


It’s fair to say Peyton Manning had this year’s MVP locked up in Week 1 when he tied a league record with 7 TDs and he’s been nothing but sensational for the twelve weeks thereafter. He’s on pace to beat Tom Brady’s single-season TD record (50) and Drew Brees’ single-season yardage record (5,476) before the final snap in Week 17 and the schedule moving forward is a piece of cake (hosting Titans and Chargers, then visiting Texans and Raiders). There will be plenty of accolades to come including the MVP award for Manning and rightfully so. But who else would we be considering among the 2013 mortals standing in Manning’s shadow? Here are five notable MVP runner-ups to light a candle for:

Adrian Peterson - Much like the season following Aaron Rodgers’ superb MVP year, it’s hard to fathom another running back, even AP, living up to his legendary comeback performance in 2012. He won’t get to that fabled 2,500 yards this year, but Peterson is still having a great year leading the league in rushing yards and TDs and averaging over 4 yards per carry. Heck, his first snap of the year was a 78-yard run from scrimmage for the end zone and has put up 140+ yards in three of the Vikings’ four wins/ties. The problem? He has no prayer with Minnesota sliding to 3 - 8 - 1 after a stunning 10 - 6 playoff season last year.

Calvin Johnson - Megatron might not beat his own record in NFL receiving yards this year, but he’s generating just as much impact for the high-flying Lions in 2013. How many insane triple-coverage catches have we seen Johnson make so far this season? He’s tied with Jimmy Graham for the most receiving TDs in the league so far this year and averaging over 100 yards a game despite every defensive back and their mom knowing that Matt Stafford is going to look his way. In terms of intangibles, there’s no doubt the attention Johnson draws on defense has allowed has-beens and new faces like Reggie Bush and Joseph Fauria, respectively, to become big contributors in their own right. Through good times and bad, No. 81 is the constant in every Detroit fan’s heart and arguably the reason the Lions are sitting atop the NFC North in position for their second playoff appearance in three years.

Jimmy Graham - Anything Calvin Johnson does, Jimmy Graham is darn close to doing, which is remarkable for a tight end. There isn’t another TE in the league within 15 spots of his receiving yards, and as mentioned above, Graham is tied with Megatron for most TD receptions in the NFL this season. He’s proven quite the matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and that new contract number has soared during this final year of his rookie deal. These days, Drew Brees lives and dies by Graham's abilities in the open field and like Johnson, Graham's vertical ability allows the Saints to do just about whatever they want in the running and screen games to beat (non-Seattle) defenses into submission.

Russell Wilson - This might be a little bit of a knee jerk to what we saw on Monday night, but Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind in a very complementary style of  football this year.  He's actually already the winningest QB in his first two years of pro ball of all time.  Wilson is pretty much what everyone expected Robert Griffin to be this year, accurate and smart in the passing game, a constant threat on the ground, and a very zen leader not easily ruffled by pass rushes, deficits or adapting the game plan.  Although the stat sheet doesn't look all that extraordinary in terms of yards or TDs for Wilson since Seattle is a run-first team, he's third only to Peyton Manning and Nick Foles in passer rating and sports a better win record than either of them.

Robert Quinn - I've always got my eye on defensive work horses in a league that tends to shine the spotlight on the other side of the line of scrimmage.  It's hard to fathom anyone getting even half as close as J.J. Watt might have last year to becoming the first defensive MVP in three decades, but if this was a thing, I'd like the Rams' Robert Quinn's chances.  He has 13 sacks and 5 forced fumbles so far this year including a fumble return for a touchdown, and he's a holy terror at the line of scrimmage.  His most memorable game had to be the Rams hosting the Seahawks in October, a game during which Quinn dropped Russell Wilson three times and kept Seattle to just 40 offensive plays and less than 140 yards.  It's a wonder St. Louis didn't walk away with a win, but Quinn was a clear X-factor.

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