Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) - The moment we’ve been waiting for over the past month has finally arrived for this NFC heavyweight Lady Blitz Game of the Week. The real winner here is ESPN, but whoever comes away with the W will be one step closer to locking up a much-coveted homefield advantage in January. To that end, I hate that this game is in Seattle instead of the Superdome, but the Saints still have a chance to win this one if they can beat the Seahawks at their own defensive game and protect the ball on offense. Nevertheless, I’m already getting flashbacks of Marshawn Lynch in 2011 and that was before Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom were a thing.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - Nothing says love on Thanksgiving like the ugliest rivalry in professional football. Expect it to be brutal this time around between two teams desperate to gain ground in the division and in the very crowded AFC wild card bubble. I have no idea what to think of this one par usual. The Ravens defense continues to keep this team in a number of games that the offense is doing nothing to support. The Steelers look improved but still a far cry from dominant. But on a whim that Pittsburgh is only here to play spoiler to my picks week in and out, I’m pickin’ em.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4) - Yikes, the Colts have taken a big step back since they upset the Broncos and lost Reggie Wayne for the season. Indy is still two games ahead of the Titans, but with Tennessee desperately trying to hang on to the 6th seed in the AFC, this one could have the feel of a playoff game. The Colts may be the better team on paper, but with a stalled running game and Andrew Luck having to do so much more with less, the Titans defense looks to have the upper hand in this one.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - How about them Cardinals this year? Although Arizona still faces an uphill battle to the playoffs this season, I’m in awe of what Bruce Arians has accomplished in his 1.5 years of head coachery. This is a huge game for both teams, and they’ve looked better and better as the season has gone on. Nick Foles has been more hot than cold this year, which should help against a very good Cardinals secondary and with the real glue of Chip Kelly’s offense, LeSean McCoy. In a game that could go either way, I like the Eagles after the bye at home.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - The NFC South would look very different right now, had the season started a month ago instead of in September. The Panthers have won seven games in a row in impressive, resilient fashion while Tampa is currently sporting a well-earned three game winning streak. Although the Bucs are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, this should be a fun one to watch if only to see Darrelle Revis and Steve Smith square off. For my own self-interest, I’m rooting Tampa but picking Carolina.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Despite the Broncos handling the Chiefs quite well a couple weeks ago, I was really looking forward to this rematch... until Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down last Sunday. It would have been fascinating to see if Denver’s offensive line could repeat that masterful performance from Week 11 in the hostile environs of Arrowhead Stadium. Unfortunately, for the Chiefs to have a chance this time around, they’ll almost certainly have to win in a shootout and as admirable as Alex Smith was in last week’s loss to the Chargers, he still ain’t Peyton Manning.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1) - This has the feel of an "anything goes" game for both teams still with a lot on the line, and like many games this week, I think homefield advantage has big implications. The Bengals just haven't been as good on the road as they have at home this year though they must be thanking their lucky stars there's no chance they'll have to play in Houston in January this time around. With Cincy's road woes and a clear matchup winner under center with Philip Rivers, this one is the Chargers to lose.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9) - Right now, Matt McGloin is either living the dream or having night terrors about his national television debut in Cowboys Stadium on Thanksgiving. I’m guessing Dallas’s defense is feeling about the same - McGloin’s rise from practice squad fill-in to starter ought to bring some relief to one of the worst defenses in the league... or just roast them on a highly televised turkey platter. Either way, Tony “Mr. Clutch” Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt against this non-conference non-threat.
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3) - This is the worst kind of game to pick because there aren’t many incentives for these two teams to do well at this point. The Falcons are officially the first team to be statistically eliminated from the playoffs this year (!) after securing the #1 seed and falling just 10 yards shy of a Super Bowl appearance. Wow. The Bills technically still have something to play for, but they are still the Bills. In a year where nothing is going right for Atlanta, I suppose they’re due for a soul-crushing week in Buffalo as well.
New York Giants (-1) at Washington Redskins - Yech. Will there be a jointly sullen press conference with Eli Manning and Robert Griffin after whatever we have to endure during this futile prime time affair on Sunday night? The Giants have a functional defense, which I suppose gives them the edge this week, but I’d rather watch pumpkin pie congeal than this miserable thing that NBC refuses to flex for the good of humanity.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 6 - 1
Season Record: 110 - 65 - 1
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