Week 10 Picks for Every NFL Game

The divisional and conference stakes are getting a bit higher this week with the season's end in sight, and bubble teams like the Panthers, Chargers and Eagles have no time like the present to make a statement against the Goliaths of our time.  With daylight savings ending last week, you weren't planning to go outside Sunday anyway, right?  Here are my Week 10 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6) - This Lady Blitz Game of the Week is a mighty test for the white-hot Carolina Panthers. That Carolina defense won’t be rolling over for Colin Kaepernick, but they’ll be fighting uphill on the road against a very good team coming off of a bye. I’ll certainly continue to raise my eyebrows if the Panthers eke out a win or even a very close loss, but they just haven’t beaten anyone this good yet, so I lean Niners.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Chicago Bears - That Josh McCown is pretty good, no? The Bears offense is humming along just fine in Jay Cutler’s absence, but they also got a huge break when Aaron Rodgers went down on the first drive last week. I think this one has all the makings of a shootout, but Detroit has to like what it saw in Chicago’s lack of rushing defense despite Seneca Wallace being under center. With Reggie Bush and a very healthy Stafford-to-Megatron connection in tow, the Lions ought to have the last shot this week.

Denver Broncos (-7) at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers' playoff window is quickly closing with two divisional rivals already with 7+ wins, so expect San Diego to put up a real fight against the Broncos this week.  I hope Mike McCoy throws in the kitchen sink in trying to slow down Peyton Manning and keep Denver's defense at bay, but the Broncos will still roll.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7) - Do you suppose Rob Ryan wants to win this one?  I think the Saints defense will do all it can to make that happen after a rough loss in New Jersey last Sunday.  Despite the roller coaster record, Dallas won't be an easy team to beat, especially if the Saints continue to struggle with injuries in the secondary and with their receiving corps.  Nevertheless, Drew Brees should have a field day with that Cowboys pass defense.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2) - With Aaron Rodgers out for a few weeks with a broken collar bone, don'tcha kind of feel like anything can happen in this one?  Seneca Wallace did not look great in Green Bay's suddenly thin Monday night lineup but Eddie Lacy did. Philly could definitely struggle if the Packers can get physical with the run game early and often.  Nevertheless, I'm banking on the Packers having to be so one-dimensional that Nick Foles can toss a TD or two more than the Rodgers-less Pack.

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) - If there's one matchup in this game worth watching, Andrew Luck sure gets hit a lot, and the Rams' Robert Quinn and Chris Long sure like to hit quarterbacks.  If St. Louis can be disruptive enough at the line of scrimmage for three quarters, they might buy backup QB Kellen Clemens just enough opportunities to stay in the game.  But I don't need another shred of evidence to know that Andrew Luck will find a way anyway.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons - It feels plain wrong to want the Falcons to win this one, but it sure would help the Saints out in the hunt for top NFC seeding.  If Atlanta was remotely healthy on defense, they might be able to punish the Seahawks' questionable offensive line and eke this one out.  Their one shot may be Steven Jackson returning to lineup to take some pressure off of the passing game, but I don't expect it to be enough for a Seattle team that seems to get all the favorable bounces this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens - Similar to the Chargers-Broncos rumble above, this is likely the Ravens' last hope at a playoff bid this season, so we may see a glimmer of the Super Bowl team that played its best with its back against the wall a year ago.  Baltimore has a bit more of a shot now that Bengals' All Pro DE Geno Atkins is out for the season but unless the Ravens' running game does something different than it has in the first 9 weeks, I'm not betting on it.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - Poor Houston just can't catch a break these days between Gary Kubiak's health scare and yet another fourth quarter collapse last Sunday.  You gotta love what rookie QB Case Keenum has done to give the Texans some life, but with more rest and time for film study than previous opponents, I have a feeling that Cardinals defense is going to give Keenum a lot more trouble than he's used to.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskins (-2) at Minnesota Vikings - Who would've thought these teams would fall so far from grace this year after their surprising 2012 playoff run?  No matter, there could be a ton of offense in this one, which means lots of good news for my fantasy team.  I'm not sure who really has the best shot at this one since both defenses are terrible, but since the Redskins have more weapons while the Vikings lost an important one in Kyle Rudolph, Washington has the edge, I guess.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-12) - I could fabricate a story about setting an orphanage on fire in this paragraph and I'm still assuming you're going to skim right over it.  The Jaguars are making a great case for going 0 - 16.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - Hoo boy, there's not a lot of rhyme or reason to why these teams are where they are these days.  The Steelers looked to be getting back to mediocre for a couple of weeks before getting thrashed on defense by Terrelle Pryor and Tom Brady.  The Bills have beaten some decent teams and lost big to everyone else.  I'm tempted to go Buffalo with the return of E.J. Manuel, but I'm waiting for Pittsburgh to prove me wrong for picking them par usual.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7) - The Giants aren't out of the woods entirely by any means against a Raiders team with flashes of competence when they're not making Nick Foles look like a genius.  But given the early start time and a bye week for New York to try just about everything differently, maybe they'll remind us how little it takes to seize control of the NFC East.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Maybe the Dolphins didn't want the Buccaneers to go unopposed in the competition for most dysfunctional locker room this week.  No matter, it's basketball season at this point anyway, and these teams don't appear to be going anywhere fast.  With the loss of two offensive linemen and a whole lot of distractions, the Dolphins are in prime position to let this one slip through their fingers.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 5
Season Record: 86 - 47