2013 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, which has the unenviable job of facing the suddenly stout NFC West this season as well as the highly enviable job of facing the AFC East this season.  With some of the best offensive guns in the business and a few promising shifts on defense not in places named New Orleans, the South will try to regain some ground in a mighty stacked conference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: With Dashon Goldson, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis anchoring the Bucs' defense, Tampa becomes a ground-and-pound force to be reckoned with in a division that's heavy on the offensive finesse.  All Pro Guard Carl Nicks gives young RB Doug Martin an extra boost and Tampa becomes a sleeper success.

Worst Case Scenario: Martin's breakout rookie year proves to be nothing more than a fluke, and Josh Freeman is left to flounder his way through his final contract year, and perhaps his last year as a starter in the NFL.  Greg Schiano becomes this year's Rex Ryan along with Rex Ryan, dismantling any sense of a healthy locker room culture.  [Insert staph infection jokes here]

Bellwether Match Up: The newly assembled Bucs secondary will have quite the test when Drew Brees' Saints come to town in Week 2.  Conversely, Doug Martin ought to have room to run all over the place for half a doting crowd in Tampa's home opener.

Prediction: I'm not sure what to do about the Buccaneers.  From Jon Gruden's final season to Raheem Morris' short tenure to last season with Schiano, this team runs hot and cold like an apartment shower before rush hour (Zing!).  So with some brilliant games and some stinkers in the mix, I'm keeping Tampa right at 7 - 9.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: The Falcons breeze through the first half of the schedule, facing only one team (Patriots) with a winning 2012 record in their first eight games.  Steven Jackson gives the offense even more of an edge than it had before, allowing the Falcons to contend against stiffer competition in the second half of the season and easily seize the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: Matt Ryan has no upper lip!  Or the Steven Jackson experiment ends like the Michael Turner one, and the Falcons defense ends up reeling without John Abraham, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson in the mix.  Atlanta is too tight of an organization to fall to more than a second place finish in the NFC South, but the Falcons can't shake off their "choker" reputation with a tougher schedule in play.

Bellwether Match Up: The Dirty Birds' biggest hurdle will likely be the three week stretch against all other 2012 NFC #1s--the Packers, Redskins and 49ers--in weeks 14 - 16.  Still, all eyes are on Week 1 against the hated Saints who will have Falcon killer Sean Payton back at the helm in the Superdome.

Prediction: As much as I hope I'm wrong, the conditions are quite favorable for Atlanta to become the first team in history to win two consecutive NFC South titles, especially with the slow ramp up and home/away mix in the scheduling.  With Tony Gonzalez gunning for a Super Bowl swan song, the Falcons go 11 - 5.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Cam Newton has a veteran breakthrough and Luke Kuechly becomes the best linebacker since sliced bread (or maybe since Ray Lewis' heyday).  Carolina finally turns the corner as the NFC contender everyone hoped they'd be for the last three years.

Worst Case Scenario: The Panthers' lack of depth in receivers, young/healthy running backs and serviceable coaching totally sandbags this team's talented potential.  Coach Ron Rivera's out by mid to late season and Carolina starts searching for the next Jim Harbaugh with little else to show for the season.

Bellwether Match Up: Carolina rounds out the season with four divisional games in the last five weeks, though they practically have a bye hosting the Jets in Week 15.  Still, the Panthers will need to make a big splash during that stretch to stay in the playoff hunt and prove they're more than a collection of top draft picks on the shelf.

Prediction: As bright as some of the spots on the Panthers roster are, I have a hard time believing Cam Newton will step up without ex-OC Rob Chudzinski around and with Rivera still calling the shots.  Another stagnant year at 7 - 9 seems likely.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Sean Payton returns with a vengeance and lots of new offensive wrinkles up his sleeve to give Drew Brees a banner year and the running game new life.  It's enough to cover up for an increasingly young and inexperienced defensive starting lineup that gets just enough lucky breaks with turnovers to salvage close games.

Worst Case Scenario: If the Saints defense has any remaining ACLs in tact by Week 6, I'll be surprised.  With very limited improvement under Rob Ryan and a mountain of injuries to overcome, New Orleans picks up right where it left off with Brees trying to throw the team's way out of failure and forcing too many interceptions to really contend.

Bellwether Match Up: It's on in Week 1 against the nemesis Falcons.  We'll know then and there how much (or little) Coach Payton & co. have been hiding up their sleeves in the preseason and whether the Saints are truly in position to reclaim the kind of success they've had in recent years.

Prediction: My, my.  When I made these predictions about a month ago, New Orleans at least still had Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith and Kenyon Coleman left in the rotation, and there was no preseason evidence that they still have a whole lot of work to do.  I'll stick to my guns that having Payton around is worth 2 - 3 extra wins, but it is not without deep reservations.  10 - 6 on a whim.