2013 Win-Loss Predictions: AFC North Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC North, which faces many questions this season after years of playoff relevance and the return of the reigning Super Bowl champs.  It's a mixed bag for this group with many winnable games against the AFC East and a tall order in stopping the immense offensive powers of the NFC North. And one very self-righteous and vengeful James Harrison.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: The Bengals finally make the leap in the division and conference, taking advantage of their aging/roster-churning AFC North competition and having a fighting chance of winning their first playoff game since I was in diapers.

Worst Case Scenario: Andy Dalton plateaus in his QB development, which isn't very helpful when you're trying to outgun Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco.  The so-called Red Rifle brings the Bengals back down to plain mediocre in the standings and A.J. Green starts eyeing greener pastures for the contract year.

Bellwether Match Up: Like the Dolphins/Colts in my previous post, the Bengals may be in heated competition for a wild card spot if they regress at all this year.  Beyond that, they need to do better than 0.500 against the rest of the division to prove they've made any substantive improvements to avoid an early playoff exit.

Prediction: As much as I love that Cincy pass rush, I'm still a bit skeptical about how the Bengals will fare this year given the match ups in the offensively loaded NFC North and within the division.  But I think they can maintain a respectable 9 - 7 record and maybe lose to the Texans again in the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Offensively minded Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner add an immediate boost to this ever-downtrodden franchise to get at least to the middle of the pack.  The recent stockpile of high draft picks start to earn their keep with the right leadership in place.

Worst Case Scenario: Same Browns, different day.  Even with a 10-win season included, the Browns sport an abysmal 32.5% win rate over the past decade with 6 different coaches at the helm.  With the least impressive QB from the class of 2012 under center and a rookie head coach, there are just too many obstacles to surmount in getting even to 0.333.

Bellwether Match Up: The Browns can be kings of the bottom of the barrel with very winnable opportunities against the Bills, Jaguars and Jets.  See? Silver linings, people.

Prediction: For all my Debbie Downer talk, I'd love to see the Browns get to at least seven wins if simply for restoring some iota of the karmic balance that is owed to their most loyal fans.  But I'm not sure Rob Chudzinski works those kind of miracles since he couldn't achieve that with Cam freaking Newton in two years.  5 - 11 it is.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: Joe Flacco is an efficient fantasy stud full time, instead of just for four wintry games.  Even if the Ravens defense isn't what it was pound-for-pound under Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, their understudies do enough of the right thing to keep Baltimore at the top ranks of the division and conference.

Worst Case Scenario: The Super Bowl hangover and impossible expectations for Joe Flacco are too much to live up to while the defense scrambles to find a new identity without the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger and Bernard Pollard.  The Ravens miss their first playoffs in five years under Harbaugh and Flacco to set up the rebuild.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 1 against the Broncos is quite a statement opportunity for the Ravens.  Because of stupid baseball, Baltimore will be the first reigning championship team to start the year off away from its doting fans.  Instead, they get to suffer altitude sickness while Peyton Manning tries to pick apart a brand new defensive cohort.  I gotta believe John Harbaugh will try to stick it to the Broncos and the Orioles on that night.

Prediction: What goes up must come down, and I suspect the Ravens are due for a let down after a miraculous playoff run and ascension of Joe Flacco's game.  While a wild card bid certainly isn't out of the question, I have Baltimore at 8 - 8 while the rest of the AFC gets a little closer to fine.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: Pittsburgh is done licking its wounds after two forgettable seasons and mostly avoids injuries that would surely sink an aging set of starters.  A fresh star or two emerges from the defensive line and offensive skill positions to give the Steelers new life after the exit of James Harrison, Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall.

Worst Case Scenario: With so much turnover, the offensive line still isn't up to par to protect even the scramblingest Big Ben or create a viable run game to limit his snaps.  The early (Week 5) bye makes it impossible to restore Pittsburgh's health for critical games late in the season.  Before you know it, the Steelers are down to Bruce "Who?" Gradkowski and kissing their playoff hopes goodbye.

Bellwether Match Up: The Steelers look to have a very manageable early stretch before they welcome Baltimore to town in Week 7.  Even though the Bengals may end up being stiffer competition this year, the Ravens are always the most important psychological rival for the Steelers to surmount.

Prediction: The way I see it, a lot is riding on the Steelers' health this year and on younger guys stepping up in key skill positions.  But after placing third in the division last year, Pittsburgh can't be too intimidated by the schedule ahead.  10 - 6 seems easily attainable.