2013 Win-Loss Predictions, AFC South Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, which has its work cut out with the mighty NFC West and rebuilt AFC West.  Even with some bright spots with Andrew Luck's development, a healthier Texans defense and a new coach in Jacksonville, this division may be facing the toughest road ahead this season.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: The Colts end up being every bit as clutch as their 2012 season suggested.  Andrew Luck's growing body of pro experience and Chuck Pagano's first full year catapult this young team to the top of the South as they get closer to elite status.

Worst Case Scenario: Indy is exposed as the team that got more than a few favorable bounces last year and isn't quite ready to step up with a tougher schedule this time. Luck's gunslinging style leads to more costly turnovers and fewer miraculous game-winning drives while he continues to work through growing pains.

Bellwether Match Up: Can there really be any other game but Indy-Denver in Week 7?  It may explode the city of Indianapolis's head to choose between their favorite son and their future, and it'll surely be the Colts' best chance to prove they can hang with the AFC's top brass.

Prediction: I think the Colts have many prosperous seasons ahead with the current regime, but I can't ignore the fact that they only beat three teams with winning records last year and that they stumbled into the playoffs with a negative point differential.  It seems only healthy that they'll come back down to 8 - 8 during a sophomore slump.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: "Five wins" sounds like a miracle at this point since the Jaguars are dealing with a D-League quality quarterback battle right now between Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert.  But maybe ex-Seahawks DC Gus Bradley has just the devil-may-care attitude to turn that sinking ship of a locker room around.

Worst Case Scenario: The fact that this franchise brain trust is now openly advertising that it will show the Red Zone channel during Jaguars games can't bode well for morale.  And with so few discernible improvements made in the offseason, Jacksonville doesn't appear to have any incentive but tanking until a better top draft pick comes around.

Bellwether Match Up: The fact that Coach Bradley will get to face his old team and former division rivals this year may actually permit Jacksonville to steal a game they aren't expected to win.  Otherwise, the Jaguars will be grappling with other conference bottom feeders (Browns, Chiefs, Jets) who will mostly be better than them.

Prediction: Assuming Blaine Gabbert is not allowed to start a single game this season, I think Chad Henne will bring Jacksonville one whole extra win to go 3 - 13 and possibly take them off of the top draft pick yet again in 2014.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: The Texans make the necessary refinements on both sides of the ball to go from good to great in the AFC.  The defense stays reasonably healthy enough to give at least a couple top tier QBs fits (Manning, Brady, Flacco, Kaepernick, Wilson, Smith) while a few diamonds in the rough emerge on offense to balance things out with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson.  In other words, all of the pieces finally come together and the Texans cruise into late January.

Worst Case Scenario: Matt Schaub continues to regress and Andre Johnson's knee or hamstring explodes; opposing defenses put five guys on Arian Foster duty and T.J. Yates starts looking like he deserves another chance.  Houston's too talented to sink to the bottom, but a plateau this season would surely be a disappointment.

Bellwether Match Up: Houston will have many chances to prove itself beyond its own weak division this year with five matchups against 2012 playoff  teams.  But I can only imagine the Texans will want to avenge two very embarrassing losses to the Patriots when Tom Brady's club comes to Reliant Stadium in Week 13.

Prediction: The Texans should be a little nervous about the gauntlet they will be running through this season, especially if the Colts continue to breathe down their necks in the division.  Even so, I have enough respect for Houston's experience and roster to give them a healthy 10 - 6.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Out of nowhere, Jake Locker rises to the occasion by taking a page out of the hybrid quarterback book and puts those legs to better use.  Lord knows it's better than Locker throwing blindfolded into triple coverage like usual.  With fewer mistakes and a more diversified plan of attack, the Titans scrape the ceiling of mediocre.

Worst Case Scenario: Gregg Williams sucks the Tennessee defense into a moral vacuum of bounties and generally underwhelming performance, which was a big Achilles Heel last time around.  Assuming Locker continues his uneven ways and CJ2K remains a four letter word in fantasy leagues everywhere, the bottom could definitely fall through for this yet-to-be inspiring Mike Munchak squad.

Bellwether Match Up: Honestly, coming up with an interesting game for the Titans this year is like deciding between washing the baseboards and reading the tax code. Blerrg.  At least Jeff Fisher can remind Bud Adams that he's an idiot when the Titans come to St. Louis in Week 9, I spose.

Prediction: With the Colts' and Texans' stock rising and a tough schedule ahead for this middling Titans team, I can't really see them getting that farther ahead than they are.  I predict a perfectly 6 - 10 plateau.