2013 Win-Loss Predictions: AFC East Edition

I have to admit to you, in my self-effacing cocoon of caveats and overt skepticism, that I am none too confident in my win-loss predictions this season.  For one, it'll play out with only three teams making the playoffs that didn't last year.  And much more intriguingly, I'm not sure if we'll see a 13+ win team this season.  The Broncos have the clearest path with the easiest schedule, but as a whole, the AFC looks too weak with injuries and churn for the most part to put up those win totals, and the NFC is quite the opposite - so competitive that the top tier may eat itself alive.  Adding to the mayhem, no less than 8 teams--25% of the league, mind you--made a major coaching change during the offseason.  All I'm saying is, you might want to save your bets for Week 5 or so.

Nevertheless, for your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us start with the suspect AFC East that must face two competitive divisions with up to three viable playoff contenders a piece (Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers).  Sanchez help us.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Maybe the sole first round QB of 2013 E.J. Manual has a few Russell Wilson-like tricks up his sleeve that the rest of us don't know about. Doug Marrone is just what the upstate ordered with his feisty, offensively fresh ways, powering the franchise to split the series with the Patriots and steal a few games during a gauntlet of a schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: So much change in such short order has the Bills spinning their wheels.  Mario Williams and Kevin Kolb continue to add to Buffalo's tradition of sunk costs by doing next to nothing productive/being made of glass and the team is due for yet another sub-0.500 season.

Bellwether Match Up: Even with a handicap for incarcerated tight ends, the Patriots are still a bit of a stretch for the Bills to overcome this year, but they may be able to jockey with the Dolphins for the #2 spot in the AFC East.  It all starts in Week 7 in South Beach.

Prediction: I'm going to take the fact that Kevin Kolb can't even survive a floor mat as a sure sign of the Bills continued annual demise.  Call it rookie coach/QB jitters, but I have the Bills going 4 - 12 against the aforementioned brutal schedule and few promising offseason acquisitions.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: The Dolphins hit free agency pay dirt, finding just the right combination of skill players to boost young QB Ryan Tannehill's offensive game and defensive playmakers to make up for its deficiencies elsewhere.  With much of the AFC reeling, Miami takes a giant leap forward in the division and in the top 6 conference seeds.

Worst Case Scenario: Tannehill and/or Coach Philbin aren't all they're cracked up to be while GM Jeff Ireland absolutely is.  The Dolphins become the next victims in line behind the Philadelphia Eagles when it comes to failed roster hoarding experiments and little more than a teachable moment by the time January rolls around.

Bellwether Match Up: As I alluded to in my Games to Watch segment recently, the Dolphins will be measured in large part by how they fare against the [arguably] vulnerable Patriots this year. Another one to keep on the radar is their Week 2 match up against the Colts. The final playoff spot may come down to these two teams head to head, and this one will indicate whether Miami can mount the same hurdles Indy did so brilliantly last year.

Prediction: Consider this my leap of faith prediction in the AFC.  I don't think these Dolphins will shock the world, but this conference is ripe for new teams to emerge, and you can't knock Miami for at least trying to go all in.  If the preseason to date has no bearing on how they'll actually do, I have the Dolphins eking out a 9 - 7 season.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: Akin to the Bills, the Jets' best chance of succeeding is with a surprise breakout performance by rookie QB Geno Smith. At minimum, we can hope that Smith isn't so immediately degraded by the New York media that he can be marginally better than Mark Sanchez.  Subtracting a negative is a positive, right?

Worst Case Scenario: The Jets still can't find an answer on offense and have one less Darrelle Revis to bail them out on defense to keep more than a handful of games manageable.  And in a way that can't even be conceived by the human mind yet, Sanchez somehow manages to top his butt fumble as icing on the cake.

Bellwether Match Up: We ought to know by Week 4 whether the Jets can get to 6 wins or not this season.  They'll have a chance to knock off the Bills and Titans before a five week stretch that includes the Falcons, Steelers, Patriots, Bengals and Saints that are all slightly less shaky at the quarterback position.

Prediction: The Jets will play 11 of 16 games against teams that had better records than they did in 2012.  And while they should win 2ish more games than this, I had to beat up on the black sheep of the Meadowlands with a lowly 3 - 13 record to get other teams a little higher up the food chain.  It felt good.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: If only to spite the rest of us, the Patriots don't even skip a beat with the offseason exploding tight end epidemic and anoint a whole new receiving corps of fantasy studs with another MVP-caliber season for Tom Brady.

Worst Case Scenario: The Patriot Way finally starts to crack just a little bit at the foundation.  New England is still a force to be reckoned with when it comes to middling to awful teams, but the Pats can't break through when it comes to the stiffer competition this season.

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming wins in the top tier will be critical to the Patriots' self-image and playoff seeding, New England's biggest Rorschach Test is against arch-nemesis Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  If the season ends up being more best case than worst, it could mean home field advantage come January.

Prediction: The Pats have an interesting road ahead against prolific passing attacks (Falcons, Saints, Broncos), high-potential defenses (Bengals, Steelers, Buccaneers) and the Ravens in between.  They may win some and lose some, but they still get to play the rest of the AFC East twice, so 11 - 5 sounds about right.