2013 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC North, which has some manageable challenges against the ever-inconsistent NFC East and somewhat rebuilding AFC North.  Now that the Bears have drunk the Kool-Aid, this division has become an offensive track meet all around, so look for the team(s) with a little bit of balance to seize the margins.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: Though the Bears will almost certainly lose a step on defense after a spectacular 2012 season, the offensive overhaul more than makes up for it.  Chicago steals one from the Packers and gets into Wild Card territory, temporarily validating Lovie Smith's controversial departure.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite the boost in offensive talent around him, Jay Cutler still can't make the leap from good to great (i.e., less interception-prone).  Especially with a first-half schedule that includes 4 teams in 7 weeks that had 9+ wins last year, Chicago's traction with the rebuild comes too little too late.

Bellwether Match Up: The litmus test for these new-look Bears will surely be going to Lambeau Field in Week 9.  A Bears victory would go a long way towards at least temporarily satisfying the fan base's Ahab-like obsession with conquering their biggest Midwestern foes.

Prediction: I can see a sizeable standard deviation with the Bears' fate this year. Having said that, I'm not sold on Lovie Smith-to-Marc Trestman being the smoothest of transitions, especially since Chicago lost DC Rod Marinelli and some key defensive players in the shuffle.  A small slide to 8 - 8 is in order.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: Stafford-to-Megatron is already automatic, but having a healthy and peaking Reggie Bush around could finally diversify Detroit's offense enough to do more than eke out games.  The Lions' wealth of defensive draft standouts put all the pieces together with a scary pass rush unit that makes up for holes in the secondary.

Worst Case Scenario: Already teetering on the edge of disaster after a 4 - 12 season in 2012, Detroit continues to be uneven and undisciplined in big games, which hurts when nearly half of the Lions' games are against teams that went to the playoffs last year.  If Calvin Johnson gets so much as a hangnail, Matt Stafford will get hung out to dry.

Bellwether Match Up: Detroit faces all three divisional foes in its first five weeks of the season. The Bears are arguably the Lions' most similar competition this year, so the match up between the Lions' defensive front and Jay Cutler could be intriguing in Week 4.

Prediction: The Lions still have a lot to prove in my book if they really are the 10 - 6 Wild Card team from 2011 instead of the losing team for many years before and after that standout season.  With a tough schedule ahead and plenty of uncertainty in the secondary, I give them a slight improvement of 6 - 10 over 2012.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: The best QB in the game today rediscovers his 2011 mojo, and rookie RB Eddie Lacy is worth the hype, giving Green Bay its most balanced (and unstoppable) offensive attack since Aaron Rodgers took the helm.  Barring critical injuries, the Packers reach every bit of their potential in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: With Greg Jennings gone and Guard Bryan Bulaga out for the season, the Packers take a step back on offense, which is bad news when you have a mediocre-at-best defense.  Green Bay is still the cream of the NFC North, but it can't compete with other conference favorites with another disappointingly short postseason.

Bellwether Match Up: What better way to put that worst case scenario to the test than in Week 1 against the 49ers at Candlestick?  The Packers defense was reduced to catfood against Colin Kaepnernick's Niners here in January, and they'll be doing their best to atone out of the gate this time around.

Prediction: I like the Pack's chances this year.  Although few would call them underrated, that chip on the shoulder has grown about three sizes since Green Bay's inspiring 2010 Super Bowl run as a sixth seed.  I think they have a real shot at 12 - 4 and a bye week.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Adrian Peterson runs for 2,500 yards, all but eliminating the need for QB Christian Ponder to do anything but coif his hair.  But in all seriousness, the Vikings can get close to that improbably playoff run of 2012 if their many high-potential free agency and draft moves pay off with more balance for both sides of the ball.

Worst Case Scenario: Minnesota comes crashing back to Earth with a tougher schedule and defenses throwing themselves at AP to force the passing game--sans Percy Harvin--to be meaningful.  The Vikings may not be the same bottom of the barrel they were a couple of seasons ago, but they aren't playoffs material either.

Bellwether Match Up: The Vikings have quite the divisional road trip to start the season, spending their first two week in Detroit and Chicago.  Coming away with at least one win and some confidence will set the tone for Minnesota to maintain last year's excellence rather than slide back into meh.

Prediction: Although I hope for the best with my #2 overall fantasy stud Adrian Peterson, the Vikings really do have an uphill battle this season.  Beyond their three divisional road games, they also have to visit the Giants, Ravens, Bengals and Seahawks on the road.  Not ideal for a sleeper dome team that performed well beyond projected last year, and 7 - 9 seems about right.