2013 Win-Loss Predictions, AFC West Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, which ought to see its stock go up facing the struggling AFC South (and ever-unpredictable NFC East) and with some high-potential acquisitions for the Broncos and Chiefs in particular.  It won't be a walk in the park with this division, and I expect some casualties and stagnation, but the Broncos still look to have a very attainable road to the Super Bowl if they can stay healthy.

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: Hitting the scheduling jackpot again with what could be one of the easiest schedules in the league, the Broncos cruise through the regular season and start resting starters around Week 16 for the divisional round.  Peyton eyes another MVP with a consistently spectacular year and Wes Welker added to the arsenal.

Worst Case Scenario: The preseason is a sign of things to come with a slew of injuries that Denver was most fortunate to avoid last year.  Manning's arm strength starts to wane in the winter of his career, costing the Broncos a few interception-plagued games but they still pull off a division title at a lower seed.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Broncos can get to their Week 9 bye relatively unscathed, they should be able to backstroke into the playoffs with 6 of 8 games against teams with losing records last year.  Therefore, the one-two punch to start the year against the Ravens and Giants will be big for setting the right tone for Denver and giving margin to rest this somewhat aging roster for January.

Prediction: I mentioned at the beginning of this season that the Broncos might have the clearest shot at being a 13+ win team this season.  Even with a powderpuff schedule and one of the all-time greats leading the charge, I think Denver could slip ever so slightly to 12 - 4 and possibly a little lower if the Chiefs are any good.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: New coach Mike McCoy gives Philip Rivers the same potential-stretching boost he gave to Tebow and Manning in Denver to get him and the Chargers offense back to prolific early day form.  Manti Te'o goes on a redemption rookie tour and gets people talking about his football life instead of that other thing, and the team has a foundation to be relevant again in upcoming seasons.

Worst Case Scenario: It turns out Philip Rivers and a questionable cast of receivers can't make the leap in a new coaching regime, especially with Ryan "Mr. Glass" Mathews breaking more tibias than seem biologically feasible.  Manti is a bust and a distraction, and San Diego has limited success with a demanding travel schedule this season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Broncos are the division bullies that the Chargers need to confront this year in order to make things interesting.  They host Denver for Round 1 in Week 10, so look for ex-pat Mike McCoy to put his old squad to the test.  I'd start with Rahim Moore.

Prediction: I don't expect the Chargers to have a banner year with so many potential risks/gaps at receiver and running back and with the aforementioned schedule that has them playing six Eastern and Central Time 1:00 games.  San Diego remains a  7 - 9 team and the clock starts ticking for McCoy to have a different 2014 season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: Andy Reid and Alex Smith are just the catalysts to right the ship in Kansas City, which had six Pro Bowlers in 2012 despite the abysmal 2 - 14 record, mind you.  With a lot better luck on turnovers and maximizing the high level of talent at most skill positions, the Chiefs catapult into the playoffs with a decent seed.

Worst Case Scenario: Let's be clear - there's nothing but upside for the 2013 Chiefs, but Reid and Smith may not be the panacea many KC fans are hoping for, especially with a brand new team to lead.  Smith proves to be more of a "system guy" that looked good under Jim Harbaugh's care instead of a QB who can hold up with a lesser supporting cast than San Francisco's.

Bellwether Match Up: It'll be interesting to see how Reid fares with the new look Chiefs during the Week 2 - 4 stint against three NFC East teams (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) he has known intimately for the last 15 years.  It may be the truest test of whether his recent struggles in Philly were about the roster or the management, and it will be vital for KC to have some early success with so many changes in play.

Prediction: I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to make the leap this year and at least get into a good wild card race with teams like Miami and Indy.  Even though it's a bit of a stretch, if KC can buy into the new regime and cut down on turnovers with the more conservative Alex Smith, the Chiefs have a real shot at 9 - 7 and possibly better.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: With Charles Woodson back in the fold, the struggling Oakland defense gets a boost in the locker room and a handful of game-changing turnovers to capitalize on.  Matt Flynn has a solid starting debut, or at least avoids the kinds of costly mistakes that every Raiders QB since Rich Gannon has tortured Black Hole fans with.

Worst Case Scenario: Can we talk about that offensive line? Oakland is already down to its C-Team after some ill-timed injuries, and the Raiders' offense will be toast if they continue to let even the most downtrodden defenses like that of the Saints hang 5 sacks on Flynn in the preseason.  A collapse could keep this team at the very bottom of the ranks in 2013 so that they can blow another #1 overall pick on Johnny Manziel next year.

Bellwether Match Up: I don't even know.  Are you honestly planning on tracking this team's progress this year?

Prediction: I'm probably being a bit generous unless the Raiders can find some stability on offense with Matt Flynn, but by virtue of an insanely easy schedule, Oakland should be able to go 5 - 11 or so.