2013 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC South

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC South, which has the unenviable job of facing the suddenly stout NFC West this season as well as the highly enviable job of facing the AFC East this season.  With some of the best offensive guns in the business and a few promising shifts on defense not in places named New Orleans, the South will try to regain some ground in a mighty stacked conference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario: With Dashon Goldson, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis anchoring the Bucs' defense, Tampa becomes a ground-and-pound force to be reckoned with in a division that's heavy on the offensive finesse.  All Pro Guard Carl Nicks gives young RB Doug Martin an extra boost and Tampa becomes a sleeper success.

Worst Case Scenario: Martin's breakout rookie year proves to be nothing more than a fluke, and Josh Freeman is left to flounder his way through his final contract year, and perhaps his last year as a starter in the NFL.  Greg Schiano becomes this year's Rex Ryan along with Rex Ryan, dismantling any sense of a healthy locker room culture.  [Insert staph infection jokes here]

Bellwether Match Up: The newly assembled Bucs secondary will have quite the test when Drew Brees' Saints come to town in Week 2.  Conversely, Doug Martin ought to have room to run all over the place for half a doting crowd in Tampa's home opener.

Prediction: I'm not sure what to do about the Buccaneers.  From Jon Gruden's final season to Raheem Morris' short tenure to last season with Schiano, this team runs hot and cold like an apartment shower before rush hour (Zing!).  So with some brilliant games and some stinkers in the mix, I'm keeping Tampa right at 7 - 9.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario: The Falcons breeze through the first half of the schedule, facing only one team (Patriots) with a winning 2012 record in their first eight games.  Steven Jackson gives the offense even more of an edge than it had before, allowing the Falcons to contend against stiffer competition in the second half of the season and easily seize the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: Matt Ryan has no upper lip!  Or the Steven Jackson experiment ends like the Michael Turner one, and the Falcons defense ends up reeling without John Abraham, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson in the mix.  Atlanta is too tight of an organization to fall to more than a second place finish in the NFC South, but the Falcons can't shake off their "choker" reputation with a tougher schedule in play.

Bellwether Match Up: The Dirty Birds' biggest hurdle will likely be the three week stretch against all other 2012 NFC #1s--the Packers, Redskins and 49ers--in weeks 14 - 16.  Still, all eyes are on Week 1 against the hated Saints who will have Falcon killer Sean Payton back at the helm in the Superdome.

Prediction: As much as I hope I'm wrong, the conditions are quite favorable for Atlanta to become the first team in history to win two consecutive NFC South titles, especially with the slow ramp up and home/away mix in the scheduling.  With Tony Gonzalez gunning for a Super Bowl swan song, the Falcons go 11 - 5.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case Scenario: Cam Newton has a veteran breakthrough and Luke Kuechly becomes the best linebacker since sliced bread (or maybe since Ray Lewis' heyday).  Carolina finally turns the corner as the NFC contender everyone hoped they'd be for the last three years.

Worst Case Scenario: The Panthers' lack of depth in receivers, young/healthy running backs and serviceable coaching totally sandbags this team's talented potential.  Coach Ron Rivera's out by mid to late season and Carolina starts searching for the next Jim Harbaugh with little else to show for the season.

Bellwether Match Up: Carolina rounds out the season with four divisional games in the last five weeks, though they practically have a bye hosting the Jets in Week 15.  Still, the Panthers will need to make a big splash during that stretch to stay in the playoff hunt and prove they're more than a collection of top draft picks on the shelf.

Prediction: As bright as some of the spots on the Panthers roster are, I have a hard time believing Cam Newton will step up without ex-OC Rob Chudzinski around and with Rivera still calling the shots.  Another stagnant year at 7 - 9 seems likely.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario: Sean Payton returns with a vengeance and lots of new offensive wrinkles up his sleeve to give Drew Brees a banner year and the running game new life.  It's enough to cover up for an increasingly young and inexperienced defensive starting lineup that gets just enough lucky breaks with turnovers to salvage close games.

Worst Case Scenario: If the Saints defense has any remaining ACLs in tact by Week 6, I'll be surprised.  With very limited improvement under Rob Ryan and a mountain of injuries to overcome, New Orleans picks up right where it left off with Brees trying to throw the team's way out of failure and forcing too many interceptions to really contend.

Bellwether Match Up: It's on in Week 1 against the nemesis Falcons.  We'll know then and there how much (or little) Coach Payton & co. have been hiding up their sleeves in the preseason and whether the Saints are truly in position to reclaim the kind of success they've had in recent years.

Prediction: My, my.  When I made these predictions about a month ago, New Orleans at least still had Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith and Kenyon Coleman left in the rotation, and there was no preseason evidence that they still have a whole lot of work to do.  I'll stick to my guns that having Payton around is worth 2 - 3 extra wins, but it is not without deep reservations.  10 - 6 on a whim.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions for the NFC North

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC North, which has some manageable challenges against the ever-inconsistent NFC East and somewhat rebuilding AFC North.  Now that the Bears have drunk the Kool-Aid, this division has become an offensive track meet all around, so look for the team(s) with a little bit of balance to seize the margins.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario: Though the Bears will almost certainly lose a step on defense after a spectacular 2012 season, the offensive overhaul more than makes up for it.  Chicago steals one from the Packers and gets into Wild Card territory, temporarily validating Lovie Smith's controversial departure.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite the boost in offensive talent around him, Jay Cutler still can't make the leap from good to great (i.e., less interception-prone).  Especially with a first-half schedule that includes 4 teams in 7 weeks that had 9+ wins last year, Chicago's traction with the rebuild comes too little too late.

Bellwether Match Up: The litmus test for these new-look Bears will surely be going to Lambeau Field in Week 9.  A Bears victory would go a long way towards at least temporarily satisfying the fan base's Ahab-like obsession with conquering their biggest Midwestern foes.

Prediction: I can see a sizeable standard deviation with the Bears' fate this year. Having said that, I'm not sold on Lovie Smith-to-Marc Trestman being the smoothest of transitions, especially since Chicago lost DC Rod Marinelli and some key defensive players in the shuffle.  A small slide to 8 - 8 is in order.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario: Stafford-to-Megatron is already automatic, but having a healthy and peaking Reggie Bush around could finally diversify Detroit's offense enough to do more than eke out games.  The Lions' wealth of defensive draft standouts put all the pieces together with a scary pass rush unit that makes up for holes in the secondary.

Worst Case Scenario: Already teetering on the edge of disaster after a 4 - 12 season in 2012, Detroit continues to be uneven and undisciplined in big games, which hurts when nearly half of the Lions' games are against teams that went to the playoffs last year.  If Calvin Johnson gets so much as a hangnail, Matt Stafford will get hung out to dry.

Bellwether Match Up: Detroit faces all three divisional foes in its first five weeks of the season. The Bears are arguably the Lions' most similar competition this year, so the match up between the Lions' defensive front and Jay Cutler could be intriguing in Week 4.

Prediction: The Lions still have a lot to prove in my book if they really are the 10 - 6 Wild Card team from 2011 instead of the losing team for many years before and after that standout season.  With a tough schedule ahead and plenty of uncertainty in the secondary, I give them a slight improvement of 6 - 10 over 2012.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario: The best QB in the game today rediscovers his 2011 mojo, and rookie RB Eddie Lacy is worth the hype, giving Green Bay its most balanced (and unstoppable) offensive attack since Aaron Rodgers took the helm.  Barring critical injuries, the Packers reach every bit of their potential in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: With Greg Jennings gone and Guard Bryan Bulaga out for the season, the Packers take a step back on offense, which is bad news when you have a mediocre-at-best defense.  Green Bay is still the cream of the NFC North, but it can't compete with other conference favorites with another disappointingly short postseason.

Bellwether Match Up: What better way to put that worst case scenario to the test than in Week 1 against the 49ers at Candlestick?  The Packers defense was reduced to catfood against Colin Kaepnernick's Niners here in January, and they'll be doing their best to atone out of the gate this time around.

Prediction: I like the Pack's chances this year.  Although few would call them underrated, that chip on the shoulder has grown about three sizes since Green Bay's inspiring 2010 Super Bowl run as a sixth seed.  I think they have a real shot at 12 - 4 and a bye week.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario: Adrian Peterson runs for 2,500 yards, all but eliminating the need for QB Christian Ponder to do anything but coif his hair.  But in all seriousness, the Vikings can get close to that improbably playoff run of 2012 if their many high-potential free agency and draft moves pay off with more balance for both sides of the ball.

Worst Case Scenario: Minnesota comes crashing back to Earth with a tougher schedule and defenses throwing themselves at AP to force the passing game--sans Percy Harvin--to be meaningful.  The Vikings may not be the same bottom of the barrel they were a couple of seasons ago, but they aren't playoffs material either.

Bellwether Match Up: The Vikings have quite the divisional road trip to start the season, spending their first two week in Detroit and Chicago.  Coming away with at least one win and some confidence will set the tone for Minnesota to maintain last year's excellence rather than slide back into meh.

Prediction: Although I hope for the best with my #2 overall fantasy stud Adrian Peterson, the Vikings really do have an uphill battle this season.  Beyond their three divisional road games, they also have to visit the Giants, Ravens, Bengals and Seahawks on the road.  Not ideal for a sleeper dome team that performed well beyond projected last year, and 7 - 9 seems about right.

FFL Logo

A sign of good things to come: I spent a whole lot more time on creating my fantasy league logo than drafting a roster.  Anyway, here's to my inaugural FFL year with Team Bakery Special.  For inquiring minds, as narcotic as this sounds, it's actually an old imaginary childhood friend of mine:

***Special Update Time!***
Although I'm certainly neurotic enough to have buyer's remorse, I think I fared pretty well in this first fantasy league draft all told:

Starters:

• Colin Kaepernick (QB)
• Adrian Peterson (RB)
• Stevan Ridley (RB)
• Calvin Johnson (WR)
• Wes Welker (WR)
• Tony Gonzalez (TE)
• Lamar Miller (Flex RB)
• Cardinals (D/ST)
• Dan Bailey (K)

Bench:

• Eli Manning (QB)
• Reggie Wayne (WR)
• Torrey Smith (WR)
• Le'Veon Bell (RB)
• Fred Davis (TE)
• Pierre Thomas (RB)
• Golden Tate (WR)
• Josh Gordon (WR)
• Vikings (D/ST)

2013 Win-Loss Predictions, NFC East Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the NFC East, which in my opinion has the haziest outlook of any division this season by far.  The Giants and Cowboys are always up and down, the Eagles have a brand new regime in place, and the Redskins are new in their success.  What I do know is there are plenty of opportunities for all of these teams to prove themselves against the developing/uneven AFC West and NFC North and against each other. 

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario: Tony Romo has the transcendent season that has always been just beyond his reach, and it helps to have a defense and running game that are 99 times healthier than they were last year.  With Jason Garrett safely tucked away from managing the clock or calling plays, Dallas gets a couple more wins and a real shot at the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: All of the coaching shuffles turn out to be a band-aid on a larger chronic problem (Jerry Jones), Romo is just Romo, and Demarcus Ware starts losing a step or two with more years and injuries behind him.  Disorganization puts this team in the sub-0.500 zone.

Bellwether Match Up: It'll be interesting to see how Dallas does out of the gate when they host the Giants in Week 1.  Still, the meat of the schedule comes in December when the Cowboys face the Bears, Packers, Redskins and Eagles in consecutive weeks.  No doubt all eyes will be on Tony Romo in the clutch to close out the season strong and keep playoff hopes alive in those last two weeks.

Prediction: Even though I expect the Dallas defense to rebound from its injury woes and give the team a boost, I'm not confident the Cowboys will be the leaders of the highly competitive divisional pack, so 8 - 8 give or take a win.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario: Chip Kelly's innovative offensive system discombobulates opponents for weeks, giving the Eagles the early edge they'll need for a tough schedule to start the season.  The no huddle extravaganza makes Philly's QB committee and very fast skill player corps look Pro Bowl worthy.

Worst Case Scenario: All the bells and whistles that made Kelly successful as a college coach don't translate.  The offensive line can't generate any kind of run game or pass protection, and the Eagles are down to a self-doubting Matt Barkley--and the drawing board--by Week 8.

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming Philly will need some time to grow into its new identity, a big test will be Week 5 facing the Giants at the Meadowlands.  If the Eagles are going to step up to the plate this year, they'll definitely need the edge against a more seasoned and stable team.

Prediction: More caveats and question marks to come in this shot-in-the-dark prediction.  I do think the Eagles have potential to succeed by doing things quite differently than they have in the past 15 years, but they may need a couple more years to build the roster around the system.  They improve to 6 - 10 with high hopes ahead.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario: Assuming New York can reinvigorate its once-dynamic pass rush and find a serviceable running game--as it seems to do every four years lately--the sky's the limit.  Say what you will about Eli Manning's bad days, of which there are a decent number, when it's time to be clutch, he can lead a team to January and beyond.

Worst Case Scenario: Say the pass rush and serviceable running game don't come together, especially with the loss of Osi Umenyiora and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Say Eli has an interception-heavy year without a healthy Victor Cruz and/or Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck are reeling with lingering injuries.  That kind of uphill battle puts the Giants at risk of a losing season for sure.

Bellwether Match Up: Every team in this division has something to prove against the others, but how can I resist Eli's matchup with Peyton at home in Week 2?  The elder Manning's more likely to be remembered generations from now, but Eli & co. have proven before they can handle a head to head with this sibling rivalry.

Prediction: Who can ever tell with the Giants?  They've had some decent draft prospects and reconfigurations since their most recent Super Bowl win, but they've also had some roster turnover and health concerns to contend with.  As with every year, they'll either be the best or simply mediocre and nowhere in between, so I give 'em a 9 - 7.

Washington Redskins

Best Case Scenario: RGIII is back in action early and as efficient and productive as ever.  With the help of Alfred Morris' legs and one of the best read option fakes in the game, the Redskins shred opposing defenses across America and get back defensive muscle with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. The 'Skins pick up right where they left off near the top of the NFC pack.

Worst Case Scenario: I can't imagine this Washington team going worse than 8 wins, even if Griffin misses more time than expected since backup Kirk Cousins must be the envy of every Jets and Jaguars fan on the eastern seaboard.  Still, it'd be hard for any team to replicate the kind of 7-game win streak the Redskins pulled off last year, so a small step back isn't out of the question.

Bellwether Match Up: It's been a while since Washington has risen to #1 seed status, so they'll have plenty opportunities to spar with the top brass this season.  They'd gain some confidence in my book if they can give the Packers a run for their money in Week 2.

Prediction: I gotta say, I'm still pretty thunderstruck with how pro-ready Robert Griffin was last year, and he's got a very well-rounded supporting cast on both sides of the ball to have a relatively successful year.  I can see Washington getting to 10 - 6 this year if they get a few lucky bounces along the way.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions, AFC West Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, which ought to see its stock go up facing the struggling AFC South (and ever-unpredictable NFC East) and with some high-potential acquisitions for the Broncos and Chiefs in particular.  It won't be a walk in the park with this division, and I expect some casualties and stagnation, but the Broncos still look to have a very attainable road to the Super Bowl if they can stay healthy.

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario: Hitting the scheduling jackpot again with what could be one of the easiest schedules in the league, the Broncos cruise through the regular season and start resting starters around Week 16 for the divisional round.  Peyton eyes another MVP with a consistently spectacular year and Wes Welker added to the arsenal.

Worst Case Scenario: The preseason is a sign of things to come with a slew of injuries that Denver was most fortunate to avoid last year.  Manning's arm strength starts to wane in the winter of his career, costing the Broncos a few interception-plagued games but they still pull off a division title at a lower seed.

Bellwether Match Up: If the Broncos can get to their Week 9 bye relatively unscathed, they should be able to backstroke into the playoffs with 6 of 8 games against teams with losing records last year.  Therefore, the one-two punch to start the year against the Ravens and Giants will be big for setting the right tone for Denver and giving margin to rest this somewhat aging roster for January.

Prediction: I mentioned at the beginning of this season that the Broncos might have the clearest shot at being a 13+ win team this season.  Even with a powderpuff schedule and one of the all-time greats leading the charge, I think Denver could slip ever so slightly to 12 - 4 and possibly a little lower if the Chiefs are any good.

San Diego Chargers

Best Case Scenario: New coach Mike McCoy gives Philip Rivers the same potential-stretching boost he gave to Tebow and Manning in Denver to get him and the Chargers offense back to prolific early day form.  Manti Te'o goes on a redemption rookie tour and gets people talking about his football life instead of that other thing, and the team has a foundation to be relevant again in upcoming seasons.

Worst Case Scenario: It turns out Philip Rivers and a questionable cast of receivers can't make the leap in a new coaching regime, especially with Ryan "Mr. Glass" Mathews breaking more tibias than seem biologically feasible.  Manti is a bust and a distraction, and San Diego has limited success with a demanding travel schedule this season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Broncos are the division bullies that the Chargers need to confront this year in order to make things interesting.  They host Denver for Round 1 in Week 10, so look for ex-pat Mike McCoy to put his old squad to the test.  I'd start with Rahim Moore.

Prediction: I don't expect the Chargers to have a banner year with so many potential risks/gaps at receiver and running back and with the aforementioned schedule that has them playing six Eastern and Central Time 1:00 games.  San Diego remains a  7 - 9 team and the clock starts ticking for McCoy to have a different 2014 season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario: Andy Reid and Alex Smith are just the catalysts to right the ship in Kansas City, which had six Pro Bowlers in 2012 despite the abysmal 2 - 14 record, mind you.  With a lot better luck on turnovers and maximizing the high level of talent at most skill positions, the Chiefs catapult into the playoffs with a decent seed.

Worst Case Scenario: Let's be clear - there's nothing but upside for the 2013 Chiefs, but Reid and Smith may not be the panacea many KC fans are hoping for, especially with a brand new team to lead.  Smith proves to be more of a "system guy" that looked good under Jim Harbaugh's care instead of a QB who can hold up with a lesser supporting cast than San Francisco's.

Bellwether Match Up: It'll be interesting to see how Reid fares with the new look Chiefs during the Week 2 - 4 stint against three NFC East teams (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) he has known intimately for the last 15 years.  It may be the truest test of whether his recent struggles in Philly were about the roster or the management, and it will be vital for KC to have some early success with so many changes in play.

Prediction: I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to make the leap this year and at least get into a good wild card race with teams like Miami and Indy.  Even though it's a bit of a stretch, if KC can buy into the new regime and cut down on turnovers with the more conservative Alex Smith, the Chiefs have a real shot at 9 - 7 and possibly better.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case Scenario: With Charles Woodson back in the fold, the struggling Oakland defense gets a boost in the locker room and a handful of game-changing turnovers to capitalize on.  Matt Flynn has a solid starting debut, or at least avoids the kinds of costly mistakes that every Raiders QB since Rich Gannon has tortured Black Hole fans with.

Worst Case Scenario: Can we talk about that offensive line? Oakland is already down to its C-Team after some ill-timed injuries, and the Raiders' offense will be toast if they continue to let even the most downtrodden defenses like that of the Saints hang 5 sacks on Flynn in the preseason.  A collapse could keep this team at the very bottom of the ranks in 2013 so that they can blow another #1 overall pick on Johnny Manziel next year.

Bellwether Match Up: I don't even know.  Are you honestly planning on tracking this team's progress this year?

Prediction: I'm probably being a bit generous unless the Raiders can find some stability on offense with Matt Flynn, but by virtue of an insanely easy schedule, Oakland should be able to go 5 - 11 or so.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions, AFC South Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC West, which has its work cut out with the mighty NFC West and rebuilt AFC West.  Even with some bright spots with Andrew Luck's development, a healthier Texans defense and a new coach in Jacksonville, this division may be facing the toughest road ahead this season.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario: The Colts end up being every bit as clutch as their 2012 season suggested.  Andrew Luck's growing body of pro experience and Chuck Pagano's first full year catapult this young team to the top of the South as they get closer to elite status.

Worst Case Scenario: Indy is exposed as the team that got more than a few favorable bounces last year and isn't quite ready to step up with a tougher schedule this time. Luck's gunslinging style leads to more costly turnovers and fewer miraculous game-winning drives while he continues to work through growing pains.

Bellwether Match Up: Can there really be any other game but Indy-Denver in Week 7?  It may explode the city of Indianapolis's head to choose between their favorite son and their future, and it'll surely be the Colts' best chance to prove they can hang with the AFC's top brass.

Prediction: I think the Colts have many prosperous seasons ahead with the current regime, but I can't ignore the fact that they only beat three teams with winning records last year and that they stumbled into the playoffs with a negative point differential.  It seems only healthy that they'll come back down to 8 - 8 during a sophomore slump.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario: "Five wins" sounds like a miracle at this point since the Jaguars are dealing with a D-League quality quarterback battle right now between Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert.  But maybe ex-Seahawks DC Gus Bradley has just the devil-may-care attitude to turn that sinking ship of a locker room around.

Worst Case Scenario: The fact that this franchise brain trust is now openly advertising that it will show the Red Zone channel during Jaguars games can't bode well for morale.  And with so few discernible improvements made in the offseason, Jacksonville doesn't appear to have any incentive but tanking until a better top draft pick comes around.

Bellwether Match Up: The fact that Coach Bradley will get to face his old team and former division rivals this year may actually permit Jacksonville to steal a game they aren't expected to win.  Otherwise, the Jaguars will be grappling with other conference bottom feeders (Browns, Chiefs, Jets) who will mostly be better than them.

Prediction: Assuming Blaine Gabbert is not allowed to start a single game this season, I think Chad Henne will bring Jacksonville one whole extra win to go 3 - 13 and possibly take them off of the top draft pick yet again in 2014.

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario: The Texans make the necessary refinements on both sides of the ball to go from good to great in the AFC.  The defense stays reasonably healthy enough to give at least a couple top tier QBs fits (Manning, Brady, Flacco, Kaepernick, Wilson, Smith) while a few diamonds in the rough emerge on offense to balance things out with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson.  In other words, all of the pieces finally come together and the Texans cruise into late January.

Worst Case Scenario: Matt Schaub continues to regress and Andre Johnson's knee or hamstring explodes; opposing defenses put five guys on Arian Foster duty and T.J. Yates starts looking like he deserves another chance.  Houston's too talented to sink to the bottom, but a plateau this season would surely be a disappointment.

Bellwether Match Up: Houston will have many chances to prove itself beyond its own weak division this year with five matchups against 2012 playoff  teams.  But I can only imagine the Texans will want to avenge two very embarrassing losses to the Patriots when Tom Brady's club comes to Reliant Stadium in Week 13.

Prediction: The Texans should be a little nervous about the gauntlet they will be running through this season, especially if the Colts continue to breathe down their necks in the division.  Even so, I have enough respect for Houston's experience and roster to give them a healthy 10 - 6.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario: Out of nowhere, Jake Locker rises to the occasion by taking a page out of the hybrid quarterback book and puts those legs to better use.  Lord knows it's better than Locker throwing blindfolded into triple coverage like usual.  With fewer mistakes and a more diversified plan of attack, the Titans scrape the ceiling of mediocre.

Worst Case Scenario: Gregg Williams sucks the Tennessee defense into a moral vacuum of bounties and generally underwhelming performance, which was a big Achilles Heel last time around.  Assuming Locker continues his uneven ways and CJ2K remains a four letter word in fantasy leagues everywhere, the bottom could definitely fall through for this yet-to-be inspiring Mike Munchak squad.

Bellwether Match Up: Honestly, coming up with an interesting game for the Titans this year is like deciding between washing the baseboards and reading the tax code. Blerrg.  At least Jeff Fisher can remind Bud Adams that he's an idiot when the Titans come to St. Louis in Week 9, I spose.

Prediction: With the Colts' and Texans' stock rising and a tough schedule ahead for this middling Titans team, I can't really see them getting that farther ahead than they are.  I predict a perfectly 6 - 10 plateau.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions: AFC North Edition

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us continue with the AFC North, which faces many questions this season after years of playoff relevance and the return of the reigning Super Bowl champs.  It's a mixed bag for this group with many winnable games against the AFC East and a tall order in stopping the immense offensive powers of the NFC North. And one very self-righteous and vengeful James Harrison.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario: The Bengals finally make the leap in the division and conference, taking advantage of their aging/roster-churning AFC North competition and having a fighting chance of winning their first playoff game since I was in diapers.

Worst Case Scenario: Andy Dalton plateaus in his QB development, which isn't very helpful when you're trying to outgun Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco.  The so-called Red Rifle brings the Bengals back down to plain mediocre in the standings and A.J. Green starts eyeing greener pastures for the contract year.

Bellwether Match Up: Like the Dolphins/Colts in my previous post, the Bengals may be in heated competition for a wild card spot if they regress at all this year.  Beyond that, they need to do better than 0.500 against the rest of the division to prove they've made any substantive improvements to avoid an early playoff exit.

Prediction: As much as I love that Cincy pass rush, I'm still a bit skeptical about how the Bengals will fare this year given the match ups in the offensively loaded NFC North and within the division.  But I think they can maintain a respectable 9 - 7 record and maybe lose to the Texans again in the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario: Offensively minded Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner add an immediate boost to this ever-downtrodden franchise to get at least to the middle of the pack.  The recent stockpile of high draft picks start to earn their keep with the right leadership in place.

Worst Case Scenario: Same Browns, different day.  Even with a 10-win season included, the Browns sport an abysmal 32.5% win rate over the past decade with 6 different coaches at the helm.  With the least impressive QB from the class of 2012 under center and a rookie head coach, there are just too many obstacles to surmount in getting even to 0.333.

Bellwether Match Up: The Browns can be kings of the bottom of the barrel with very winnable opportunities against the Bills, Jaguars and Jets.  See? Silver linings, people.

Prediction: For all my Debbie Downer talk, I'd love to see the Browns get to at least seven wins if simply for restoring some iota of the karmic balance that is owed to their most loyal fans.  But I'm not sure Rob Chudzinski works those kind of miracles since he couldn't achieve that with Cam freaking Newton in two years.  5 - 11 it is.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario: Joe Flacco is an efficient fantasy stud full time, instead of just for four wintry games.  Even if the Ravens defense isn't what it was pound-for-pound under Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, their understudies do enough of the right thing to keep Baltimore at the top ranks of the division and conference.

Worst Case Scenario: The Super Bowl hangover and impossible expectations for Joe Flacco are too much to live up to while the defense scrambles to find a new identity without the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger and Bernard Pollard.  The Ravens miss their first playoffs in five years under Harbaugh and Flacco to set up the rebuild.

Bellwether Match Up: Week 1 against the Broncos is quite a statement opportunity for the Ravens.  Because of stupid baseball, Baltimore will be the first reigning championship team to start the year off away from its doting fans.  Instead, they get to suffer altitude sickness while Peyton Manning tries to pick apart a brand new defensive cohort.  I gotta believe John Harbaugh will try to stick it to the Broncos and the Orioles on that night.

Prediction: What goes up must come down, and I suspect the Ravens are due for a let down after a miraculous playoff run and ascension of Joe Flacco's game.  While a wild card bid certainly isn't out of the question, I have Baltimore at 8 - 8 while the rest of the AFC gets a little closer to fine.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario: Pittsburgh is done licking its wounds after two forgettable seasons and mostly avoids injuries that would surely sink an aging set of starters.  A fresh star or two emerges from the defensive line and offensive skill positions to give the Steelers new life after the exit of James Harrison, Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall.

Worst Case Scenario: With so much turnover, the offensive line still isn't up to par to protect even the scramblingest Big Ben or create a viable run game to limit his snaps.  The early (Week 5) bye makes it impossible to restore Pittsburgh's health for critical games late in the season.  Before you know it, the Steelers are down to Bruce "Who?" Gradkowski and kissing their playoff hopes goodbye.

Bellwether Match Up: The Steelers look to have a very manageable early stretch before they welcome Baltimore to town in Week 7.  Even though the Bengals may end up being stiffer competition this year, the Ravens are always the most important psychological rival for the Steelers to surmount.

Prediction: The way I see it, a lot is riding on the Steelers' health this year and on younger guys stepping up in key skill positions.  But after placing third in the division last year, Pittsburgh can't be too intimidated by the schedule ahead.  10 - 6 seems easily attainable.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions: AFC East Edition

I have to admit to you, in my self-effacing cocoon of caveats and overt skepticism, that I am none too confident in my win-loss predictions this season.  For one, it'll play out with only three teams making the playoffs that didn't last year.  And much more intriguingly, I'm not sure if we'll see a 13+ win team this season.  The Broncos have the clearest path with the easiest schedule, but as a whole, the AFC looks too weak with injuries and churn for the most part to put up those win totals, and the NFC is quite the opposite - so competitive that the top tier may eat itself alive.  Adding to the mayhem, no less than 8 teams--25% of the league, mind you--made a major coaching change during the offseason.  All I'm saying is, you might want to save your bets for Week 5 or so.

Nevertheless, for your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  Let us start with the suspect AFC East that must face two competitive divisions with up to three viable playoff contenders a piece (Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers).  Sanchez help us.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario: Maybe the sole first round QB of 2013 E.J. Manual has a few Russell Wilson-like tricks up his sleeve that the rest of us don't know about. Doug Marrone is just what the upstate ordered with his feisty, offensively fresh ways, powering the franchise to split the series with the Patriots and steal a few games during a gauntlet of a schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: So much change in such short order has the Bills spinning their wheels.  Mario Williams and Kevin Kolb continue to add to Buffalo's tradition of sunk costs by doing next to nothing productive/being made of glass and the team is due for yet another sub-0.500 season.

Bellwether Match Up: Even with a handicap for incarcerated tight ends, the Patriots are still a bit of a stretch for the Bills to overcome this year, but they may be able to jockey with the Dolphins for the #2 spot in the AFC East.  It all starts in Week 7 in South Beach.

Prediction: I'm going to take the fact that Kevin Kolb can't even survive a floor mat as a sure sign of the Bills continued annual demise.  Call it rookie coach/QB jitters, but I have the Bills going 4 - 12 against the aforementioned brutal schedule and few promising offseason acquisitions.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario: The Dolphins hit free agency pay dirt, finding just the right combination of skill players to boost young QB Ryan Tannehill's offensive game and defensive playmakers to make up for its deficiencies elsewhere.  With much of the AFC reeling, Miami takes a giant leap forward in the division and in the top 6 conference seeds.

Worst Case Scenario: Tannehill and/or Coach Philbin aren't all they're cracked up to be while GM Jeff Ireland absolutely is.  The Dolphins become the next victims in line behind the Philadelphia Eagles when it comes to failed roster hoarding experiments and little more than a teachable moment by the time January rolls around.

Bellwether Match Up: As I alluded to in my Games to Watch segment recently, the Dolphins will be measured in large part by how they fare against the [arguably] vulnerable Patriots this year. Another one to keep on the radar is their Week 2 match up against the Colts. The final playoff spot may come down to these two teams head to head, and this one will indicate whether Miami can mount the same hurdles Indy did so brilliantly last year.

Prediction: Consider this my leap of faith prediction in the AFC.  I don't think these Dolphins will shock the world, but this conference is ripe for new teams to emerge, and you can't knock Miami for at least trying to go all in.  If the preseason to date has no bearing on how they'll actually do, I have the Dolphins eking out a 9 - 7 season.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario: Akin to the Bills, the Jets' best chance of succeeding is with a surprise breakout performance by rookie QB Geno Smith. At minimum, we can hope that Smith isn't so immediately degraded by the New York media that he can be marginally better than Mark Sanchez.  Subtracting a negative is a positive, right?

Worst Case Scenario: The Jets still can't find an answer on offense and have one less Darrelle Revis to bail them out on defense to keep more than a handful of games manageable.  And in a way that can't even be conceived by the human mind yet, Sanchez somehow manages to top his butt fumble as icing on the cake.

Bellwether Match Up: We ought to know by Week 4 whether the Jets can get to 6 wins or not this season.  They'll have a chance to knock off the Bills and Titans before a five week stretch that includes the Falcons, Steelers, Patriots, Bengals and Saints that are all slightly less shaky at the quarterback position.

Prediction: The Jets will play 11 of 16 games against teams that had better records than they did in 2012.  And while they should win 2ish more games than this, I had to beat up on the black sheep of the Meadowlands with a lowly 3 - 13 record to get other teams a little higher up the food chain.  It felt good.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario: If only to spite the rest of us, the Patriots don't even skip a beat with the offseason exploding tight end epidemic and anoint a whole new receiving corps of fantasy studs with another MVP-caliber season for Tom Brady.

Worst Case Scenario: The Patriot Way finally starts to crack just a little bit at the foundation.  New England is still a force to be reckoned with when it comes to middling to awful teams, but the Pats can't break through when it comes to the stiffer competition this season.

Bellwether Match Up: Assuming wins in the top tier will be critical to the Patriots' self-image and playoff seeding, New England's biggest Rorschach Test is against arch-nemesis Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  If the season ends up being more best case than worst, it could mean home field advantage come January.

Prediction: The Pats have an interesting road ahead against prolific passing attacks (Falcons, Saints, Broncos), high-potential defenses (Bengals, Steelers, Buccaneers) and the Ravens in between.  They may win some and lose some, but they still get to play the rest of the AFC East twice, so 11 - 5 sounds about right.