Week 17 Picks for Every NFL Game

It's hard to believe we're already at season's end after a topsy-turvy changing of the guard in the NFL this season.  The AFC will bring back at least 4 of 6 teams that competed in the 2013 playoffs, but then there's that stunning 9-game improvement for Andy Reid's Chiefs and the Texans' 13-game losing streak that already cost Gary Kubiak his job.  On the NFC side of things, it's possible that only 2 teams (Seahawks, 49ers) will make consecutive playoff appearances this year while the vastly improved Saints, Eagles and Cardinals would give just about anything to be in that other conference even if they squeak in.  Anyhow, it's been a humbling but enjoyably crazy year in the picks, so without further adieu, here are my final regulation picks of 2013:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears - It's do or die for two of the oldest rivals in the game for our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Christmas has finally come for Packers fans with the return of Aaron Rodgers.  I have a feeling he's going to have his vengeance on the team that took him out for 6 weeks in the first place and give this team a new spark at just the right point in time.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Some might have thought my 8 - 8 prediction for the returning Super Bowl champions was a little harsh, but GM Ozzie Newsome made it pretty clear this would be a rebuilding year for Baltimore.  Unfortunately for the Ravens, who need a win and some help to get into the playoffs Sunday, they probably weren't expecting to be so vulnerable with their running game this year.  Without a healthy Joe Flacco, they have little chance of getting past the quietly surging Bengals and will miss their first playoffs of the John Harbaugh era.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Dallas Cowboys - Ah, that familiar holiday feeling of the Cowboys entering a Week 17 elimination game.  This is just how things tend to go in the NFC East, and it's a bummer that Tony Romo probably won't be there for a Dallas team that has little else it can rely on these days.  Either way, there's no denying the Eagles' rise to power with stellar play from LeSean McCoy and Nick Foles.  In fact, they're 6 - 1 since the start of November and should have this one in the bag against the Cowboys' miserable defense, Romo or no.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals need this game more than the 49ers technically do, but there are stakes either way between two defensive powerhouses.  Colin Kaepernick hasn't been as productive or cautious with the football against the grittier defenses in the league, so I expect Arizona to give him everything he can handle.  It sure helps to have Michael Crabtree back though.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Carolina Panthers (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons - Confession: this pick is as much about my own self-interested hopes for this game as it is about scientifically unproven intangibles.  It'd be nuts for the Panthers to drop this one after having the breakout season they've been waiting for, but it's also very likely to be Tony Gonzalez's last NFL game.  Cam Newton just isn't as crisp without Steve Smith in the lineup.  And if the Falcons showed us anything in that heartbreaker in San Francisco this past Monday, they've kept their pride and their fight alive long after they had a reason to do so.  Believe me, it's still hard to root for those Dirty Birds, but they ought to give No. 88 a proper farewell at the Georgia Dome for a helluva career... and give the Saints another division title.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) - Do you suppose Dolphins fans are a little on edge after one of the worst offensive performances of the 2013 season?  Respond they must to play on into January, but it won't be a cakewalk against a Jets team trying to salvage any hope for coach Rex Ryan.  I'm picking Miami for their relatively good home record and much higher stakes, but it might not be pretty.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-9) - The Patriots still need to take care of business in this game to lock up a first-round bye and, ever so implausibly, the chance for the #1 seed.  As they've proven for over a decade under Bill Belichick, I think they can handle the pressure here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-12.5) - There may be a lot of questions about the Saints [ostensibly] heading into the playoffs after this week, but their performance in the Superdome ain't one of them.  The sense of urgency could not be higher for New Orleans right now, and in the comforts of home, they should give fans a game to remember and Greg Schiano one to forget.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5) - We can talk matchups and strategy all day between the divergent styles of these divisional opponents, but the calculus is simple: the Chargers have something to play for and the Chiefs don't.  The Chiefs are also locked into a wild card spot and have every reason to build in that bye week now.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - So the Seahawks finally dropped a game at home after two years of dominance.  Don't expect that pattern to repeat itself this week with the Rams.  Don't get me wrong, St. Louis has proven itself just as potent in the defensive game as just about any other NFC West team this year, but the loss of Chris Long is devastating for Jeff Fisher's next-man-up squad.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7) - Aren't perverse incentives fun?  The Texans have absolutely no reason to win this game and forego major dibs on securing the quarterback they so desperately need in the draft.  They probably don't want any ACL tears to the likes of Bernard Pollard either in the meantime.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Cleveland Browns - What a fitting end for these teams in the Factory of Sadness.  It was a season of bitter disappointment and continued aging for the Steelers and yet another 4-to-5 win plateau for the Browns.  I shudder to think which midwestern media markets will get stuck with this one over just about any other game on TV Sunday, even maniacal, briefly victorious Steelers fans.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3) - Let the Hot Seat Bowl begin!  For the record, I'm still a Leslie Frazier fan and hopeful that the front office takes a long hard look at their own miserable record of quarterback also-rans before showing him the door.  Jim Schwartz, on the other hand, has had the best wide receiver in the game, two versatile running backs, a QB the Vikings would kill for, and one of the biggest defensive lines in the league, and he's mostly turned all of that to crap.  Therefore, the Lions should win this one just as they should have won about 3 more games in the past 6 weeks.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) - The Giants can win this one, I guess.

Indianapolis Colts (-11.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Welcome back to mid-season form, Colts and Jaguars!

Denver Broncos (-12.5) at Oakland Raiders - There's only one thing to watch in this one: how far out of reach will Peyton Manning make that single-season TD passing record?  My bet is 54 on the year whilst surpassing Drew Brees's single-season yardage record.  Sob.


To recap another way, here are my playoff seed predictions:

AFC
1. (bye) Denver Broncos
2. (bye) New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. (bye) Seattle Seahawks
2. (bye) New Orleans Saints
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Carolina Panthers



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 149 - 90 - 1

Week 16 Recap and My 2014 Playoff Matchup Wish List

Yikes!  I just realized it's been nearly a month since my last recap (and non-game picks post).  My bad.  It'd be hard not to write about the NFL week we just had, and with mere hours until the holiday good times begin, here are my thoughts after a luxurious sleep-in and cup of Christmas Eve coffee.  Also, with so many playoff stops still remarkably up for grabs, I give you my 2014 Playoff Matchup Wish List.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 16: The Good Stuff

An Epitaph for Romo - It's surprising how melancholy I feel about Tony Romo's season-ending back injury this week.  On the schadenfreude end of things, Week 17 just won't feel right without an epic Romo collapse and another early end for the Cowboys' season.  But on the much more well-intentioned end, No. 9 had a career year in 2013 and was pretty much the only guy keeping Dallas in contention to this point given an abysmal defensive situation.  At least he ended things on a high note that Cowboys fans can be proud of.  After going back and forth with the Redskins in a shootout and down by 6, Romo converted this insane 4th down goal-to-go pass to DeMarco Murray with just a minute left.  It may be just one sliver of evidence in the eye-rolling debate about whether or not he's clutch, but you gotta hand it to the guy, that was a spectacular play.

Like a Cardinal From the Ashes - Many people including myself wrote the Arizona Cardinals off before the 2013 season ever began, but here they are with a shot to make the playoffs and get to 11 wins going into Week 17.  I'm starting to think this Bruce Arians guy knows what he's doing after making Carson Palmer look like a viable starter this year, but as Sunday's stunning upset in Seattle reminded us, the bread and butter of this team is Todd Bowles' punishing defense.  Despite Palmer coughing up four picks in the toughest stadium for a visiting team, the Cardinals made Russell Wilson look like a kitten with just 100 yards of passing on the day with one interception and four sacks.  In fact, Seattle had more punts than Wilson had completions (8) until the 4th quarter.  That's a heckuva performance considering that the Seahawks came into the game with a two-year winning streak at home.

That Peyton Guy - Given how pitiful Eli Manning's year has been, you gotta wonder how Archie is feeling these days.  One son leads the league in interceptions while the other just reclaimed the title for most TD passes in a single season.  Should make for a very interesting Christmas dinner conversation.  In case you missed it, here's Peyton tossing # 51 to Julius Thomas on Sunday - makes you wonder if multiple neck surgeries will become the Tommy John procedure of choice for quarterbacks.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 16 Prediction - I missed it by about 20 minutes, but I'd call this a pretty good prediction:

• "If you listen closely, you can hear Peyton Manning shattering just about every major passing record in the NFL on Sunday right around 2:38pm in Houston."

Week 16: The Bad Stuff

Detroit Suck City - The Lions could not have found themselves in better circumstances a month ago.  Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler would miss significant playing time during the crucial final months of the season and Detroit's offensive portfolio was prosperous with versatile play from Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, Joseph Fauria and Calvin Johnson.  All they had to do was break even over the next month of the season and they were a shoe-in for the playoffs with a slate of home games against the struggling Steelers, Ravens and Giants.  But look no further than this past Sunday against the Giants if you want to know what a Detroit Lions finish looks like.  These guys suffered their fifth loss in six games in an epic fashion, and now it's time for the Detroit faithful to get back to much more enjoyable pastimes like hockey and crumbling economies.

Miami Heat Chills - Speaking of anti-clutch misery, don't think Miami fans will skip a beat in diverting all of their attention back to LeBron James after an awful Dolphins outing on Sunday.  Not to discredit the Buffalo Bills' flawless defensive effort, but the Dolphins couldn't do anything right to salvage their place in the AFC playoffs race.  Not only were they shut out, Miami had just 14 yards of rushing and 100 net yards of offense on the day despite having everything to play for.  Sadly for the many deserving teams in the NFC, the Dolphins still have a shot at claiming that final AFC spot next week though they've picked up right where the Eagles left off in failed free agency overhauls.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 16 Prediction: Turns out this was a pretty big assumption:

• "Nothing would surprise me in this one after several close ones over the years, but the Ravens are a different animal when they're at home.  Assuming Joe Flacco's knee holds up, Baltimore will close out the home record at 7 - 1."

Week 16 Feature: My 2014 Playoff Matchup Wish List

Going into Week 17, there's still a surprising number of playoff scenarios to resolve.  We'll have at least four win-and-you're-in situations including two divisional sudden death matches between the Bears-Packers and Eagles-Cowboys.  And then we'll have a ton of intriguing possibilities for how this thing all goes down in January/February, especially since even the Seahawks and Broncos have revealed some vulnerabilities of late that might make for a magical upset or two.  With all of that in mind, here's my 2014 Playoff Matchup Wish List for Santa to take into consideration this year:

Manning-v-Brady Bowl XV - This one requires little introduction, but the way these two QBs are playing, we might get to matchup #20 before either one hangs up his cleats.  Although I jinxed it by saying the same thing last year, it feels like we are destined for a Broncos-Patriots AFC Championship this season, and given the rest of the, ahem, competition in the conference, this is the only one we really want to see.  Adding to the intrigue this time around, Manning just broke Brady's single-season TD record and both teams have suffered major injuries on defense... I smell a shootout for the ages.

West Coast Beatdown Bowl III - Three weeks ago there was no question that the Seahawks would beat anyone who stood in their way at CenturyLink Field with the #1 seed in the NFC.  Now with the division and homefield advantage suddenly up for grabs after a loss to the 49ers, this excellent young rivalry may well be renewed in January once again.  Colin Kaepernick is starting to look pretty good with Michael Crabtree back in the lineup, but the Seahawks secondary hasn't skipped a beat all season.  Expect a wild one and lots of popping neck veins if Jim Harbaugh gets to face off against the hated Pete Carroll for the third time this season.  Nevertheless, the win may not be worth all of the broken bones in the trenches.

Gridlock Bowl II - I gotta say, even though both of these teams have broken this Saints fan's heart this year I'd love to see a Seahawks-Panthers showdown in 2014, especially after seeing the way Seattle struggled against the similarly-skilled Cardinals this past week.  In their previous two matchups, the margin of victory has been 4.5 points and no team has scored more than 16 points, but don't let the low score fool you.  It's worth it to see the two best defenses in the league make big plays in an era that so heavily favors passing offenses.

Feast and Famine Bowl - In terms of Super Bowl matchups, I stand by my own desire to see the Packers and Patriots duke it out in the blizzard conditions they love so well.  But with Aaron Rodgers still down for the count, it just doesn't seem possible at this point.  Instead, who wouldn't want to see the best defense in a decade face off against one of the best offenses of all time if the Seahawks and Broncos meet in the Meadowlands?  Seattle has allowed just one opponent to break 30 points in a game while Denver is averaging a staggering 38 points per game.  Peyton Manning versus Richard Sherman is on par with a Rocky film that hasn't been made yet.

Week 16 Picks for Every NFL Game

Can this season possibly get any more bonkers?  The only sure thing at this point seems to be the Seahawks, but even they had a subpar game against the 49ers a couple weeks ago.  It hasn't exactly been a banner season for these Lady Blitz picks, but then again, at least that's true for most everyone else.  I blame society for my Week 16 picks, unless they're amazing.  In that case, I totally knew it all along:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) - This sure looked like a snoozer a month ago, but with the Patriots slipping in the AFC standings and the Ravens catching some of that late-season magic that brought them a Lombardi a year ago, the meaning of this Lady Blitz Game of the Week rivalry is renewed.  Nothing would surprise me in this one after several close ones over the years, but the Ravens are a different animal when they're at home.  Assuming Joe Flacco's knee holds up, Baltimore will close out the home record at 7 - 1.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3) - Maybe all of the heads rolling on the Saints roster will wake them up for a hugely important road game and the chance to clinch the #2 seed in the NFC.  But more likely, the Panthers will have their revenge now that they control their destiny in the playoffs.  The silver lining?  A win for Carolina just means a lower draft order and a tougher schedule next year after they lose to the Seahawks in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - The Bears and Eagles are clinging to the top of their divisions this week, which ought to make for a fun and desperate shootout on Sunday night.  Jay Cutler saved himself a little controversy with a win last week, but Nick Foles won that battle months ago with one of the best QB seasons for a guy not named Peyton.  The Eagles have the edge with a less mistake-prone quarterback and utter destruction on the ground a la LeSean McCoy.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - This game shouldn't be so high up on the totem pole, but the Cardinals are playing a whole lot better than you might realize.  If they have a shot against Seattle, it'll be because of a ferocious defense that can keep the pressure coming against the ever-calm and collected Russell Wilson. But then, there's the Seahawks.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills - The Dolphins will likely need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.  Luckily, they get to play the Bills and Jets and then maybe slip something in Terrell Suggs' Kool-Aid.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) - The Colts have cooled a bit since an impressive stretch of wins in the middle of the season.  Injuries have certainly be a factor, but they're having a hard time hanging against the better defenses in the league.  The Chiefs have one of those.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Washington Redskins - Boy, am I tempted to pick the Washington Football Club after a couple of weeks of defensive collapses in Dallas.  After all, the Cowboys have had some of their worst performances to date to the likes of backup QBs Matt Flynn and Josh McCown, and this week they face the steady and contract-hungry Kirk Cousins in Washington.  But I'm giving the Cowboys a break this week to keep with the tradition of a much more epic Week 17 elimination game collapse.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-9) - Detroit fans are used to disappointment, but last week's outing against the Ravens must have been pretty tough to swallow.  Luckily, if my prophecies are true, the Lions will still have the chance to reclaim the top spot in the NFC North with a Bears loss and a Detroit win.  I don't suspect the woeful New York Giants will be able to stand in their way.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (Off) - This is definitely a game-time decision of a pick with Aaron Rodgers still questionable at best.  But if things keep going the way they are, I actually like the Steelers.  They've improved too little too late to make the playoffs, but a cold day against second-stringer Matt Flynn matches up well with Pittsburgh's strengths.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-5.5) - How about those Rams?  With a little help from the dreadful Redskins, they might solve another big problem on offense next season without having to tank the rest of 2013.  They'll need it in the NFC West with three 9+ win division mates.  Anyway, assuming both of these teams show up to play in a meaningless one, St. Louis looks mighty fine.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2) - Can't we just have a coin toss and call it a day on this one?  Nay, say the Josh Gordon fantasy owners of America.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) - Fun fact: Matt Cassel started in three of the Vikings' four wins this year.  It's a weird glitch in the matrix that the Bengals ought to avenge on behalf of the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.

Denver Broncos (-10.5) at Houston Texans - If you listen closely, you can hear Peyton Manning shattering just about every major passing record in the NFL on Sunday right around 2:38pm in Houston.  (P.S., Is there a pool on this?  Comment with your bid and I'll send you a hand-cut paper snowflake this weekend if you're right!  Let's go with the central time/date Manning surpasses Tom Brady's 50 passing TDs)

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars could well win this one just as they did to break their year-long losing streak back in November.  But if the poor Titans are to reclaim some poetic justice after a series of heart-breaking losses, they are still the slightly better team.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10) -You know, the Chargers would still be in position to claim a wild card spot had they not had a miserable outing against the Raiders that started around midnight EDT back in October.  They probably have no shot of squeezing into the playoffs now, but they'll have fun taking it out on that ne'er do well spoiler of a divisional foe.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-12) - Oh how ESPN executives must have salivated over this game when they put the schedule together so many months ago.  The Niners will have the blowout they deserve before they say goodbye to Candlestick Park; the Falcons will have a relatively high draft pick.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 139 - 84 - 1

Week 15 Picks for Every NFL Game

After a weekend that included our first in-season coach firing, a successful last-minute onside kick, a game with five touchdowns in the final two minutes, a narrowly thwarted lateral touchdown, and one of the snowiest games I've ever seen with nary a field goal or PAT even attempted, Week 15 has no way of living up to those kinds of expectations despite some key matchups for January's sake.  In fact, I can't even justifiably put more than 2 games out of 16 on the Top Shelf this week.  Nevertheless, the show must go on (even if I'm the laziest unpaid blogger with much fewer posts than usual to show for it).  Here be my Week 15 Picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Baltimore Ravens a Detroit Lions (-6) - Talk about two unpredictable teams with sky-high stakes in the game.  The Lions and Ravens are holding on for their dear playoff lives with 7 - 6 records and conference/division rivals breathing down their necks.  A loss this weekend for either team this weekend means unicorn odds of playing in January, so the Desperation Bowl is also the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  I'm digging Detroit with homefield advantage and a much steadier offense than the hot-and-cold Ravens.

New England Patriots (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Patriots probably shouldn't win this one, just as they shouldn't have won against the Browns, Broncos or Saints this season.  Meanwhile, Miami ought to throw the kitchen sink at New England this weekend to stay within reach of that hotly contested 6th seed.  When it comes down to it, I just trust the Pats with their backs against the wall a whole lot more than I trust the Dolphins - they've already proven they can win some games that way, Gronk or no Gronk.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.5) - Peyton Manning is a freakin' robot. 'Nuff said.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Between the time difference and both teams' improvements over the course of the season, this game could be closer and better than you think even though the Bucs are only playing for pride.  I really like the way Colin Kaepernick has been playing since Michael Crabtree has gotten back into the lineup, so I give them the edge despite the steady play of Tampa's "who?" cast of Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans - For anyone wondering how much of an X factor the Honey Badger has been for the Cardinals, Sunday's your chance to find out how they fare in his absence.  These two outstanding defenses should keep things close, but I never thought I'd say how much more I trust Carson Palmer right now than any second or third tier QB.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams - Despite the Saints' dominant win over the Panthers last Sunday night, they'll have to earn every yard against Robert Quinn's Rams.  It's definitely a game to be wary of even with St. Louis continuing to play through major challenges and injuries on offense.  I'm hoping those very challenges give Drew Brees & co. enough chances to put more points on the board and clinch that coveted NFC playoff spot.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-1) - Oh sure, Josh McCown was impressive against the very worst defense in the league on Monday night, but did you notice that Jason Campbell actually racked up 391 passing yards to McCown's 348?  It sure helps when you've got Josh Gordon having one of the best game stretches in NFL history.  I'm nervous about picking the Bears with a beat up defense and a QB performance that still feels a little knee-jerk to get too excited about, but they're still the Cleveland Browns for a reason.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11.5) - So the narrative is that the Panthers just aren't built to play catch up when they can't methodically grind an opponent down through the 4th quarter.  Geno Smith should help them out there just fine on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - Reader beware - I may change this one if Aaron Rodgers gets enough deer antler spray to play on Sunday.  If he plays, how could you not pick an ailing No. 12 after seeing the ailing-er Dallas defense get shredded yet again this season?  Matt Flynn and Eddie Lacy wouldn't be a cakewalk for these Cowboys either, but I have to admit they are totally overshadowing the great season Tony Romo's having.  On Romo's shoulders, Dallas has a chance... without Aaron Rodgers playing.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers - I joke every week, but I'm certain the Steelers will win this one without having any business winning it simply because I did not pick them.  You follow?  Pittsburgh seems ever-so-slightly better than their record, but the Bengals have actually earned theirs.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-7) - What a trap game.  Kirk Cousins may well take a page from spirit animal Matt Flynn and try to play his way to a starting gig somewhere else when the season ends.  The Falcons, on the other hand, only do themselves a disservice by moving farther down the draft order away from that golden pass rusher they so desperately need.  But if we assume football is just football, Atlanta is still a better team than Washington, and their coach has job security.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at New York Giants - You know, as much as I [and the rest of the world] have beaten up on the New York Giants this season, they may have gotten the shortest end of the scheduling stick.  They've played 9 of 13 games against teams that have made or could still make the playoffs at this point including the Broncos, Chiefs, Panthers and, by this time next week, the Seahawks.  So a "just get it over with" attitude is highly likely against the best team in the conference on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - The Houston Texans are hoping for a safe and rewarding Capital One Bowl for Javedeon Clowney this season.  I guess they have another one of those football games on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Am I picking the Jacksonville Jaguars for the second week in a row?  You betcha.  It may not work out, but give Gus Bradley tremendous credit for keeping this perennially downtrodden team reason to hope for better days ahead for the first time in years.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings without Adrian Peterson are like new stadiums without exorbitant amounts of public subsidies... zing!  But seriously, the Eagles will destroy them.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders - The only thing that would prevent KC from covering the spread is if they get to rest their starters by the time the dust settles for all those other amateur AFC wild card hopefuls.  (Hint: they can't because the Ravens play Monday night)


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 5
Season Record: 131 - 76 - 1

Week 14 Picks for Every NFL Game

Oh, hi!  Here are my Week 14 Picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - This key battle for the top of the NFC South--and very likely the #2 seed in the NFC--is our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Usually I try to be fair about my beloved Saints, as I’ve picked against them for two out of their three losses, but emotionally I’m having a hard time accepting that they may well lose this one too. The Panthers are every bit as tough of a matchup on both sides of the ball as the Seahawks were, and they’ve had more time to plan and rest for this one than New Orleans. I can’t say with confidence that the Saints will win this game, but I’m hoping the Superdome and a big chip on Drew Brees’ shoulder will carry them past white hot Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - They’re not perfect, but the Bengals are making a pretty solid case that they will own the AFC North this year. Now they have the chance to surpass the Colts as the #3 seed in the conference, which would mean playing a 6th seed that may not have a winning record and “getting to” go to New England instead of Denver if they finally win that elusive wild card round. The Colts still have some fight left in them after they outlasted the Titans last week, but Indy just doesn’t look as solid against stout, disruptive defensive lines. Guess who has one of those?

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) - In somewhat of a parallel to the Colts-Bengals game above, the Lions and Eagles share the same record and hopes to nab a divisional spot in the playoff seeding on the NFC side of things. If there’s one thing these two teams have in common, it’s a high-octane offense that can hang big aerial and ground plays on opponents week after week. Yet to toss his first interception this season (!), Nick Foles has the edge in terms of ball control. Still, Detroit’s defense looks better equipped to keep the ball in Matt Stafford’s hands if this one comes down to a shootout.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) - San Francisco would need divine intervention to reclaim the division over Seattle with just four weeks to go in the regular season. Unfortunately for the 49ers, they need this game a whole lot more than the Seahawks do, but I don’t think Pete Carroll intends to roll over for arch nemesis Jim Harbaugh when his team is on the bubble for a competitive NFC wild card spot. This may be the last time Seattle needs to prove they can win on the road, and they’re 5 for 6 there so far this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - There’s no sense in even trying to predict where the Steelers will land this week or any other week this year. They let Joe Flacco air it out on them on Thanksgiving to great effect, and I have to believe ex-Steeler Mike Wallace has similar designs for revenge when he returns to town with the Dolphins this weekend. The chance that Le’veon Bell won’t play after a brutal concussion last week adds more cause for concern to this limited offense. These are exactly the kinds of reasons that Pittsburgh will still win this weekend.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7) - This is a Well Drink affair simply because it gives the Ravens another opportunity to build some cushion for their wild card spot. The Vikings have shown in the past few weeks that they aren’t going down without a fight, but with Matt Cassel filling in and a very good Ravens front seven, Minnesota will probably see the end zone even less frequently than Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12) - For all the [deserved] fuss the Kansas City Chiefs have gotten for their stingy defensive front this season, the Titans aren’t too far behind. It was a blast watching them dismantle the Colts’ offensive line for 95% of the game last week, and maybe Jurrell Casey and company can make some of that same noise at Mile High. Nevertheless, in the same way that Alex Smith was never going to outduel Peyton Manning, so shall it be for sad, sad, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6) - If the theme of the week so far is defensive might, this one is second only to the fellow NFC West rumble between the Seahawks and 49ers in the level of punishment bound to take place. It makes you wonder how the Rams or Cardinals would fare in another division if they weren’t having to face Seattle and San Francisco four times a year. Anyhow, an underrated part of Bruce Arians’ Cardinals that I’ve failed to acknowledge adequately is how much better Carson Palmer looks now than he has in years. He might get a little beaten up by DE Robert Quinn from time to time, but with a defense like the Cardinals have and weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Palmer can keep an unlikely wild card bid in reach.

New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3) - Do you ever wonder if Eli Manning and Philip Rivers still think “what if?” about their musical chairs in 2004? This is sarcasm on some level, but it’s also interesting that both players have ridden the roller coaster of highly productive/efficient seasons and jaw-dropping mental mistakes with very different results over the past decade. I was surprised to see that these two teams currently have the same 5 - 7 record since Rivers is clearly having the better statistical year and a steadier supporting cast. Despite the Chargers having some unlucky bounces, they are the better team and they’re playing at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1) - The prime time lights always throw Tony Romo’s meddle into question, and Monday night with the NFC East on the line is no exception. Lucky for Romo, this Bears defense isn’t nearly as healthy/peaking as they were last season when they intercepted No. 8 five times. This is no cakewalk for Dallas, especially if the Chicago weather gets to be Chicago weather, but having Sean Lee back in the lineup could pay dividends for the Cowboys against backup Josh McCown.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Hey - these Jaguars are actually fun!  Good for Gus Bradley in turning some kind of corner in the locker room that Jacksonville might get to build on in 2014.  If only the much more talented but snakebit Texans could say the same.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Washington Redskins - The Chiefs have been on quite the downtrend, going 0 - 3 after starting the season 9 - 0.  Luckily for them, Washington's entire season has been a downtrend, and this is the perfect opportunity for the wild card lock Chiefs to regain some confidence before January.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11.5) - When your options at QB are a concussed Brandon Weeden, a concussed Jason Campbell or freshly signed Caleb Hanie, you might as well punt on every first down.  Watching Aqib Talib shut down Josh Gordon will be interesting for about a quarter.

Oakland Radiers at New York Jets (-2.5) - Similar to the Browns above, this game seems like a foregone conclusion if we assume the Jets will need to throw the ball at all.  If only they'd had their eye on undrafted benchwarmer Matt McGloin at the beginning of the season...

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - If these teams had 2 - 3 more wins under their belt, this could be a Well Drink kind of game between two interesting and underrated defenses.  But in the latest Buccaneers Futility Bowl, Tampa will likely do just enough to keep Greg Schiano around for another year.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Off) - So Vegas is too chicken to even call this game with Aaron Rodgers' playing status on the line.  I suppose the Falcons would much rather play Matt Flynn than Rodgers, but with all the winter weather coming through as we speak, the Packers still have the edge with Eddie Lacy over this beleaguered Southern dome team.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 120 - 71 - 1

Week 13 Recap and Five Deserving MVP Runner-Ups

What a weekend - apologies for the lateness and relative lack of posting recaps this month. I should have been squared away while the Seahawks-Saints game was on last night, but then Walking Dead reruns were looking like a better option by halftime. More on that and everything else from a pretty good week of mostly college football in your Week 13 recap:

Week 13: The Good Stuff

The 12th Man - Let’s just get this one out of the way. Nobody is going to beat the Seahawks this season, and they seem like the perfect team to play in the Meadowlands with a ferocious ground-and-pound style. Even with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond out and Marshawn Lynch held to under 50 yards of rushing, Seattle didn’t bat an eye in having one of its most dominant performances of the season against the supposedly second-best Saints. Russell Wilson was unflappable on the ground, against the blitz and in double coverage despite playing without Percy Harvin or Sidney Rice. The league-best roster depth here sort of makes you sick, but there’s no question in my mind that the Seahawks have earned every ounce of where they are.

AP's Hero Ball - Especially in the NFC, a growing number of teams are playing only for pride at this point including the Vikings and the Bears. So credit Adrian Peterson for putting on a 211-yard show to be proud of and giving the Vikings a chance to win despite having to tap into their QB bench early on Sunday. Minnesota has shown more fight in the last couple of weeks than they have since last year’s surprising playoff season, so I’m hopeful that underrated Leslie Frazier gets to keep his job. If he does though, he owes one heckuva fruit basket to this reigning MVP who had some unbelievable plays in overtime to get the Vikings in field goal range and quash Chicago’s playoff hopes for the second time in as many years.  Peterson is also now the third-fastest RB to reach 10,000 career yards.

All of the College Football - There were a lot of close games and even a couple of overtimes this week in the NFL, but they didn’t hold a candle to what happened in the wild, sordid world of Division I football this weekend. For my own reasons, I thought the UNC-Duke game was fantastic and am stunned that Duke now has a better win percentage than the Saints this year. Two obvious but deserved standouts were Ohio State-Michigan and Auburn-Alabama. If hindsight is 20-20, I have to confess I really liked Michigan’s decision to try a two-point conversion before the snap. With the Wolverines being big underdogs and having nothing to lose, it was gutsy to say the least to put the game on the line then and there instead of taking it to overtime. Of course, Michigan bit off more than it could chew in execution, but going for two instead of a PAT in that situation is something you may only see once or twice in a lifetime and perhaps less now that the Wolverines have made it look even less attractive. Auburn-Alabama was an instant classic that will keep Nick Saban up at night for months and the rest of us talking for years after. It’s easy to argue that Alabama certainly lost the game more than Auburn won it, but this is the kind of stuff that Denzel Washington/Gene Hackman movies are made of. With so many contributing factors in a game like football, close games come down to what you do with whatever opportunities are given to you. And as far as that goes in this one, we’ll be seeing that Chris Davis 109-yard TD run alongside Christian Laettner’s buzzer beater and Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary for the rest of college sports.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 13 Prediction - I was pretty woeful on my picks against the favorites this week, so there’s not a lot to write home about. But I was on the right side of history in expecting Nick Foles to continue his unexpectedly good run at QB. If only Andy Reid had known sooner last season:

• "Nick Foles has been more hot than cold this year, which should help against a very good Cardinals secondary and with the real glue of Chip Kelly’s offense, LeSean McCoy. In a game that could go either way, I like the Eagles after the bye at home."

Week 13: The Bad Stuff

The Sad, Sad Saints - I may be overreacting, but Monday night in Seattle might be a turning point for the Saints in a bad way. Granted they looked like they wanted nothing more than to get out of CenturyLink by the middle of the second quarter, but New Orleans just hasn’t been as good on the road or against more aggressive, physical opponents this year. Especially after travel and lodging challenges that set the team back another day on a short week, the Saints are in real trouble of losing the top spot in the NFC South to the Carolina Panthers as early as Sunday. My cynical and yet closure-oriented perspective is that Monday night told us everything we needed to know about how they would fare against just about anyone in the cold New Jersey air in February. Even so, it was a disappointment to see a team that has generally been so good at staying within reach of a win to the end phone it in after about ten minutes of Twelfth Man hell.

The Sadder, Sadder Bills - On the bright side, Buffalo may end up securing a better draft position this year than in the many 6 - 10 years past. But what a way to lose a game to a Falcons team that hardly wanted to win at all. Buffalo coughed up the ball twice in critical late game situations - first when the game was tied in the final minute of regulation while the Bills were in field goal range and second when Scott Chandler fumbled after a wide open reception in overtime that set up the game-winning field goal for Atlanta. On the flipside, kudos to the Falcons for never saying never when there’s little reason left to fight this season. They could take a page from Buffalo and win their way out of a good draft position.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 13 Prediction: As has been my experience with fantasy football this year, I hate it when a game looks like it’s going just your way until the last couple of minutes. That’s where the Titans found themselves on Sunday when they held the Colts to field goals until the last two minutes of the game after sacking Andrew Luck five times, forcing two fumbles and an interception. Also, I benched Adam Vinatieri… sigh:

• "...With Tennessee desperately trying to hang on to the 6th seed in the AFC, this one could have the feel of a playoff game. The Colts may be the better team on paper, but with a stalled running game and Andrew Luck having to do so much more with less, the Titans defense looks to have the upper hand in this one."

Week 13 Feature: Five Deserving MVP Runner-Ups

It’s fair to say Peyton Manning had this year’s MVP locked up in Week 1 when he tied a league record with 7 TDs and he’s been nothing but sensational for the twelve weeks thereafter. He’s on pace to beat Tom Brady’s single-season TD record (50) and Drew Brees’ single-season yardage record (5,476) before the final snap in Week 17 and the schedule moving forward is a piece of cake (hosting Titans and Chargers, then visiting Texans and Raiders). There will be plenty of accolades to come including the MVP award for Manning and rightfully so. But who else would we be considering among the 2013 mortals standing in Manning’s shadow? Here are five notable MVP runner-ups to light a candle for:

Adrian Peterson - Much like the season following Aaron Rodgers’ superb MVP year, it’s hard to fathom another running back, even AP, living up to his legendary comeback performance in 2012. He won’t get to that fabled 2,500 yards this year, but Peterson is still having a great year leading the league in rushing yards and TDs and averaging over 4 yards per carry. Heck, his first snap of the year was a 78-yard run from scrimmage for the end zone and has put up 140+ yards in three of the Vikings’ four wins/ties. The problem? He has no prayer with Minnesota sliding to 3 - 8 - 1 after a stunning 10 - 6 playoff season last year.

Calvin Johnson - Megatron might not beat his own record in NFL receiving yards this year, but he’s generating just as much impact for the high-flying Lions in 2013. How many insane triple-coverage catches have we seen Johnson make so far this season? He’s tied with Jimmy Graham for the most receiving TDs in the league so far this year and averaging over 100 yards a game despite every defensive back and their mom knowing that Matt Stafford is going to look his way. In terms of intangibles, there’s no doubt the attention Johnson draws on defense has allowed has-beens and new faces like Reggie Bush and Joseph Fauria, respectively, to become big contributors in their own right. Through good times and bad, No. 81 is the constant in every Detroit fan’s heart and arguably the reason the Lions are sitting atop the NFC North in position for their second playoff appearance in three years.

Jimmy Graham - Anything Calvin Johnson does, Jimmy Graham is darn close to doing, which is remarkable for a tight end. There isn’t another TE in the league within 15 spots of his receiving yards, and as mentioned above, Graham is tied with Megatron for most TD receptions in the NFL this season. He’s proven quite the matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and that new contract number has soared during this final year of his rookie deal. These days, Drew Brees lives and dies by Graham's abilities in the open field and like Johnson, Graham's vertical ability allows the Saints to do just about whatever they want in the running and screen games to beat (non-Seattle) defenses into submission.

Russell Wilson - This might be a little bit of a knee jerk to what we saw on Monday night, but Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind in a very complementary style of  football this year.  He's actually already the winningest QB in his first two years of pro ball of all time.  Wilson is pretty much what everyone expected Robert Griffin to be this year, accurate and smart in the passing game, a constant threat on the ground, and a very zen leader not easily ruffled by pass rushes, deficits or adapting the game plan.  Although the stat sheet doesn't look all that extraordinary in terms of yards or TDs for Wilson since Seattle is a run-first team, he's third only to Peyton Manning and Nick Foles in passer rating and sports a better win record than either of them.

Robert Quinn - I've always got my eye on defensive work horses in a league that tends to shine the spotlight on the other side of the line of scrimmage.  It's hard to fathom anyone getting even half as close as J.J. Watt might have last year to becoming the first defensive MVP in three decades, but if this was a thing, I'd like the Rams' Robert Quinn's chances.  He has 13 sacks and 5 forced fumbles so far this year including a fumble return for a touchdown, and he's a holy terror at the line of scrimmage.  His most memorable game had to be the Rams hosting the Seahawks in October, a game during which Quinn dropped Russell Wilson three times and kept Seattle to just 40 offensive plays and less than 140 yards.  It's a wonder St. Louis didn't walk away with a win, but Quinn was a clear X-factor.

Week 13 Picks for Every NFL Game

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) - The moment we’ve been waiting for over the past month has finally arrived for this NFC heavyweight Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The real winner here is ESPN, but whoever comes away with the W will be one step closer to locking up a much-coveted homefield advantage in January.  To that end, I hate that this game is in Seattle instead of the Superdome, but the Saints still have a chance to win this one if they can beat the Seahawks at their own defensive game and protect the ball on offense.  Nevertheless, I’m already getting flashbacks of Marshawn Lynch in 2011 and that was before Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom were a thing.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6) - I thought about sliding this game down to the Well Drink bucket since Aaron Rodgers still looks like a long shot, but Matt Flynn wasn’t too shabby the last time he played the Lions.  It was the game three multi-million dollar contracts were built on.  Also in play, it’s been a decade since Detroit has beaten Green Bay on Thanksgiving and a full twelve years since they’ve been Vegas favorites. The Lions are definitely good enough to give their woeful fan base some holiday cheer; let’s just hope they don’t get too much inside their own heads.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - Nothing says love on Thanksgiving like the ugliest rivalry in professional football. Expect it to be brutal this time around between two teams desperate to gain ground in the division and in the very crowded AFC wild card bubble.  I have no idea what to think of this one par usual.  The Ravens defense continues to keep this team in a number of games that the offense is doing nothing to support.  The Steelers look improved but still a far cry from dominant.  But on a whim that Pittsburgh is only here to play spoiler to my picks week in and out, I’m pickin’ em.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4) - Yikes, the Colts have taken a big step back since they upset the Broncos and lost Reggie Wayne for the season. Indy is still two games ahead of the Titans, but with Tennessee desperately trying to hang on to the 6th seed in the AFC, this one could have the feel of a playoff game. The Colts may be the better team on paper, but with a stalled running game and Andrew Luck having to do so much more with less, the Titans defense looks to have the upper hand in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - How about them Cardinals this year? Although Arizona still faces an uphill battle to the playoffs this season, I’m in awe of what Bruce Arians has accomplished in his 1.5 years of head coachery. This is a huge game for both teams, and they’ve looked better and better as the season has gone on. Nick Foles has been more hot than cold this year, which should help against a very good Cardinals secondary and with the real glue of Chip Kelly’s offense, LeSean McCoy. In a game that could go either way, I like the Eagles after the bye at home.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) - The NFC South would look very different right now, had the season started a month ago instead of in September.  The Panthers have won seven games in a row in impressive, resilient fashion while Tampa is currently sporting a well-earned three game winning streak.  Although the Bucs are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, this should be a fun one to watch if only to see Darrelle Revis and Steve Smith square off.  For my own self-interest, I’m rooting Tampa but picking Carolina.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1) - You know things are bad when Mark Sanchez or zombie Tim Tebow are starting to look like better options than Geno Smith, who is currently leading the league in turnovers.  The Dolphins have had their very public share of woes as well and an abysmal running game to boot, but Ryan Tannehill and a good defensive front can carry Miami in this AFC East rumble.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-8) - How good would the 49ers be if Robert Quinn decided to switch jerseys on Sunday?  This game may not be as easy as the spread suggests since San Francisco’s offense has struggled mightily against top tier defenses this year.  Nevertheless, with the Rams down to a third string running game and a second string QB, the Niners should still have the upper hand at home, even if the score’s 6 - 3.

Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Despite the Broncos handling the Chiefs quite well a couple weeks ago, I was really looking forward to this rematch... until Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down last Sunday.  It would have been fascinating to see if Denver’s offensive line could repeat that masterful performance from Week 11 in the hostile environs of Arrowhead Stadium.  Unfortunately, for the Chiefs to have a chance this time around, they’ll almost certainly have to win in a shootout and as admirable as Alex Smith was in last week’s loss to the Chargers, he still ain’t Peyton Manning.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1) - This has the feel of an "anything goes" game for both teams still with a lot on the line, and like many games this week, I think homefield advantage has big implications.  The Bengals just haven't been as good on the road as they have at home this year though they must be thanking their lucky stars there's no chance they'll have to play in Houston in January this time around.  With Cincy's road woes and a clear matchup winner under center with Philip Rivers, this one is the Chargers to lose.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9) - Right now, Matt McGloin is either living the dream or having night terrors about his national television debut in Cowboys Stadium on Thanksgiving.  I’m guessing Dallas’s defense is feeling about the same - McGloin’s rise from practice squad fill-in to starter ought to bring some relief to one of the worst defenses in the league... or just roast them on a highly televised turkey platter.  Either way, Tony “Mr. Clutch” Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt against this non-conference non-threat.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7) - Is it weird to think that these past two weeks might have saved Jaguars coach Gus Bradley from the hot seat?  At the same time, this ginormous two-game winning streak is cutting into the Jaguars’ chances to get another top draft pick to waste on Jacksonville next season.  Maybe the Browns can help them out there.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - Is it too early for these fanbases to start caring about hockey instead?  It’s hard to believe these were two 10 - 6 teams just a season ago who now have virtually no chance of making the playoffs this time around.  Oh well.  Maybe the Vikings will be doing a little scouting when Josh McCown comes to town this weekend - he’s got the chops to beat Minnesota.

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Houston Texans - They may share the same win-loss record with the Jaguars, Falcons, and [sort of] Vikings, but it’s feeling safe to say the Texans are the worst team in the NFL this year despite bringing back 7 (?) Pro Bowlers from 2012.  The Patriots will gladly take this bye week after a long, hard-fought overtime win against the Broncos last week.

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3) - This is the worst kind of game to pick because there aren’t many incentives for these two teams to do well at this point.  The Falcons are officially the first team to be statistically eliminated from the playoffs this year (!) after securing the #1 seed and falling just 10 yards shy of a Super Bowl appearance.  Wow.  The Bills technically still have something to play for, but they are still the Bills.  In a year where nothing is going right for Atlanta, I suppose they’re due for a soul-crushing week in Buffalo as well.

New York Giants (-1) at Washington Redskins - Yech.  Will there be a jointly sullen press conference with Eli Manning and Robert Griffin after whatever we have to endure during this futile prime time affair on Sunday night?  The Giants have a functional defense, which I suppose gives them the edge this week, but I’d rather watch pumpkin pie congeal than this miserable thing that NBC refuses to flex for the good of humanity.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 6 - 1
Season Record: 110 - 65 - 1

Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

This may be the least amount of time I’ve had to work on game picks in quite a while. Whatever the outcome, I can blame my wins and losses on zero forethought, which tends to work out okay in a highly variable sport. Here are some very abbreviated picks for Week 12:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New England Patriots - Something tells me we're not done with the Brady-vs.-Manning series just yet, now entering the 14th installment and earning the distinct honor of Lady Blitz Game of the Week. These QBs may well meet in January, and neither of them look ready to hang up the cleats either unless Manning ends up taking home that elusive second Lombardi. 2013 Peyton Manning cannot be stopped except that one time, and this season, he’s even greater than Tom Terrific at home.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) - The Chiefs’ rebounding defense is greater than Philip Rivers’ ability to go multiple games without mistakes.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-2) - Andrew Luck after some rest is greater than Carson Palmer, Bruce Arians or not.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5) - The horribly uneven Cowboys are greater than the horribly uneven Giants. Points will be scored.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New Orleans Saints (-9) at Atlanta Falcons - All of the Saints are greater than all of the Falcons in 2013… unless this is a trap game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-5) - Adrian Peterson is still greater than Eddie Lacy, but he’s got a shot to be great this week.

Carolina Panthers (-4) at Miami Dolphins - The stingy, resilient Panthers are looking greater than most teams in the league right now, especially those that have been scandalized.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2) - The suddenly solid Steelers are greater than… how are the Browns still in the hunt with Jason Campbell? P.S., Did you know it's been a decade since the Browns have been a Vegas favorite over the Steelers?

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The Ravens’ somewhat functional offense is greater than a porous Jets’ secondary, Ed Reed and all.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) at Washington Redskins - Jim Harbaugh’s ceaseless outrage is greater than Robert Griffin’s ennui with the Redskins’ play-calling.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9) - Megatron is less lonely than Revis Island.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10) - Everyone is greater than the Jacksonville Jaguars, even the snakebit Texans.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1) - The St. Louis Rams' brutal pass rush is better than a beaten up Chicago defense.

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (-1) - The mystery of Matt McGloin is greater than everything you already know about Ryan Fitzpatrick.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 7
Season Record: 103 - 59

Week 11 Recap and the Three Worst Football Media Traps

I could say a whole lot of things to open up this week's recap, but here is Tony Allen kicking Chris Paul in the face.  That is all.

Week 11: The Good Stuff

The Steelers Turnaround - A good number of teams would throw in the Terrible Towel after letting a solid offense like the Lions putt up over 320 passing yards in a single half.  But credit the Steelers for doing what few defenses have been able to do this year - completely shutting down Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford, who went just 3 for 16 in pass attempts in the second half.  Ben Roethlisberger had as good of a game as I've seen in a couple seasons with a 4 TD afternoon to cap off the comeback win.  It looks like the Lions and Steelers are just about as predictable as I suspected they would be, which is to say not at all.

Bobby Rainey and Matt McGloin, Household Names - By my count, at least 11 teams have started backup QBs at some point this season, and some of them have had some very good outings.  Enter Matt "Who?" McGloin, the Raiders benchwarmer behind Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn who had a shockingly good debut on the road against the Texans with 3 TDs and completions to six different receivers on Sunday.  Also rising out of nowhere, Tampa's second string RB Bobby Rainey who had a better day than any other running back this week with 3 TDs and 160 yards of his own on the ground.  Now, I'm a firm believer that there's a shelf life to 99% of guys like this not named Kurt Warner or Tom Brady because film study and weekly wear and tear are great equalizers, but kudos to McGloin and Rainey for having a great day no one expected.

A Burfict Game - If you were worried about how the Cincinnati defense would rebound after Geno Atkins went down, remember they just lost two pitiful games to the Ravens and the Dolphins.  But this week, Vontaze Burfict crushed it with a forced fumble for a touchdown and 15 tackles to go along with the Bengals D's three interceptions and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown.  Who needs Andy Dalton, err, Geno Atkins anyway?

Nailed It!  My Best Week 11 Prediction - True, the Broncos-Chiefs game was mildly entertaining for two and a half quarters with KC holding Peyton Manning to one touchdown, but Alex Smith is going to have to step up his game and his risk-taking two weeks from now to make things more interesting:

• " I'd love the Chiefs to extend their Cinderella story for another week, but when it comes down to it, is there any chance that Alex Smith can go toe-to-toe for four quarters with Manning?  I think not at Mile High."

Week 11: The Bad Stuff

Gary Kubiak, The Decider - There were plenty of interesting coaching decisions going on Sunday but perhaps none more so than Gary Kubiak benching QB Case Keenum before the fourth quarter for Houston’s whipping boy, Matt Schaub. Keenum wasn’t having a banner day with 1 TD, 1 INT and 170 passing yards, but it certainly didn’t seem to warrant pulling the plug for the much more maligned Schaub, who ended up with a lower completion percentage and no TDs anyway. Given 1) that the Texans are all but statistically eliminated from the playoffs, 2) that Keenum has demonstrated at least some big play ability since taking over and 3) that Schaub faced a hostile home crowd that wasn’t going to help with his recent head case-edness, the move certainly didn’t make Kubiak’s hot seat any cooler. Especially by making Andre Johnson so very sad.

The Forty-Whiners - Here we go again. Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers nation make it abundantly clear that the universe is out to get them and they should have at least three more Lombardi trophies by now because of it. I am referring both to Sunday’s personal foul call against Ahmad Brooks that took away a sack-fumble near the 50 with less than four minutes to go and the alleged holding no-call that would’ve given the trailing Niners the ball and a fresh set of downs against the Ravens in February. I’ll grant that both calls were controversial for a reason - they weren’t clear-cut one way or the other upon review and not reviewable for that matter. However, they don’t actually make up for the fact that the 49ers had plenty of chances to win both games and got outplayed. If everything else happened exactly the same way in this one except that Brooks’ “foul” occurred in any other quarter, we wouldn’t even be talking about it. We’d be talking about Colin Kaepernick completing roughly 50% of his passes compared to Drew Brees’ 70%, Frank Gore being held to less than 50 yards and the 49ers earning half as many first downs and punting twice as often as the Saints. I know I’m a homer on this one, but it’s a pet peeve that extends far beyond team loyalty. Hey, that gives me an idea for a weekly feature...

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 11 Prediction: Sometimes the riskier picks pay off in this topsy-turvy league, and other times, they just make you look ridiculous:

• "Let's be clear here.  The Giants are still a pretty bad team.  Trust an Eli Manning fantasy owner on that one.  They ought to win this one and keep the 3-game winning streak on the burner, but I'm going to blindly throw the ball into triple coverage that Eddie Lacy can run on New York and Scott Tolzien is just good enough to manage this game."

Week 11 Feature: The Three Worst Football Media Traps

Seeing as how I've been doing this for a year and a half without even getting paid, I get how easy it is to fall by the wayside with oversimplification and recycled/borrowed narratives about football games and players.  Without turning a mirror to yours truly, here are the three worst football media traps:

1) Blaming an Entire Win-Loss Outcome on One Bad Call - See the “Forty-Whiners” above. To be fair, there is exactly one instance where this is totally allowable: the great Fail Mary of 2012. Even then, the three-ring circus around replacement referees and a sullen Aaron Rodgers blinded fans to the fact that a new defensive superpower was rising in the West that sacked Rodgers eight times and kept his golden arm out of the end zone all night. Bad calls happen, and they happen to every team, usually for both sides in the same game. But to characterize one alleged/real lapse in human judgment as though it overrides the collective outcome of 120 - 140 other plays minimizes what the 106 athletes and their coaching staffs did or didn’t do to get them there in the first place. Good, bad or indifferent, these almost always seem to flare up around quarterback hits and how we should just let players play… right next to the mandatory monthly column about how great the NFL is doing at researching concussions indefinitely.  ***Update: Go figure I write this thing before that thrilling conclusion of Monday Night Football - Referees picking up a flag without a real explanation is sketchy to say the least, but to apply the same theory here, if the Patriots hold the Panthers to a field goal and/or use their timeouts more wisely, they aren't trying to drive the ball into the end zone with 4 seconds left on the clock in the first place.  It doesn't negate the fact that Carolina is a very dangerous team right now.  Just sayin'.***

2) Talking About Poor Performance Only in Terms of Character Issues - A.k.a. every article ever written after Dez Bryant has a mediocre day or the Jets' Dave-and-Buster's-Gate this past weekend.  It's a problem not only because the rhetoric is almost always focused on black athletes but also because it's so convenient to wield only when the game situation fits.  Haven't heard about Bryant's sideline temper tantrums in a while?  Chances are the Cowboys have won an elusive three or so games in a row.  If Dallas is in a tailspin, we'll be reminded of Father Jerry putting Dez on a curfew two years ago.  Did Tom Brady throw his helmet at the feet of some sad sack undrafted third stringer during a loss?  He was just showing leadership, silly; there's no discord in the Patriot Way locker room!  As long as your team is consistently winning, your "character" is a meaningless, intact thing that stays on the writer's shelf... unless you're Ray Lewis.

3) Knee Jerk Mondays - This may be the toughest trap for anyone who does this regularly to avoid.  How many times have you read a tidbit about your favorite team's game the day after where it was obvious the writer just read the stat sheet with no context for what happened?  And more importantly, the narrative is based purely on one game with little bearing on how the team has performed the rest of the season, usually involving some random guy we've never heard of having one good game.  This single knee jerk echo chamber is what gets people like Matt Flynn a plural number of multi-million dollar contracts.  This is also what allows "fantasy football gurus" to make a living on predictions no one is accountable for backing up for their results.  And this is what we had to deal with after two years of Tim Tebow.  Be thankful we're talking about Matt Flynn instead these days, I guess.

Week 11 Picks for Every Game

It's about to get real in the final stretch of the season, but there are few Top Shelf games this week to show for it.  At least the hotly anticipated first blood will be drawn between the Chiefs and the Broncos this weekend.  I'll be picking the obvious there and whole lot more in your Lady Blitz Week 11 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-8) - Boy do I hope this one's close and that all of those KC defensive Pro Bowlers are worth their salt against MVPeyton.  I'd love the Chiefs to extend their Cinderella story for another week, but when it comes down to it, is there any chance that Alex Smith can go toe-to-toe for four quarters with Manning?  I think not at Mile High.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Just how good or bad are the 49ers this year?  Save perhaps the first week of the season when they handled the Packers at home, they haven't exactly had a quality win.  Beating the Saints in the Superdome would go a long way in restoring confidence in this preseason favorite, but I think New Orleans looks like the more balanced team for a first time in a while this time around.

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) - The Panthers had no problem shutting down Colin Kaepernick on the road, but can they do it again against a Patriots team that just seems to be hitting its stride with a healthy Gronk and Danny Amendola?  Carolina's bread and butter has been stopping the run, but the Patriots are just fine with throwing the ball 45 times a game.  There's no counting the Panthers out these days, but if for wishful thinking alone, the Pats put surging Carolina back in its place on Monday night.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans - Here lie two teams coming off of embarrassing losses to the Rams and Jaguars, respectively, with some divisional dust left to settle.  Both the Colts and Titans have had a lot of positives to hang a helmet on this year, and if Tennessee's defense can step back up to its early season form, they may have a shot now that Indy is reeling without its full arsenal.  Nevertheless, when the question comes down to Andrew Luck or Ryan Fitzpatrick, it ain't much of a question.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Did you know it's been 20 years since the Lions claimed a division title?  Reggie Bush is no Barry Sanders, but he sure is good enough in tandem with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, and the Steelers sure don't have a lot of answers on that once-vaunted defense these days.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - Fact: the Eagles have yet to win a game on their home turf this year, so the Redskins may have a dumb luck chance.  Of course, Washington is also responsible for our collective overreaction to Chip Kelly's "unstoppable" offense back in Week 1 with little evidence to show that the defense will be remotely improved this time around.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins - The Chargers will be heaving a sigh of relief after this game against the Dolphins, their final early east coast game during a very challenging schedule.  You can definitely make a case that Miami's ship has sailed because of a bizarre locker room scandal, but just as importantly, they're down two offensive lineman and even worse off in the running game.  The Chargers have no such problem running all over SunLife with Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3) - It may not be all that exciting between Joe Flacco and Josh McCown, but this is a pretty big game for two teams looking in from the outside in their divisions.  I have no idea what's going to happen with so many questions on offense for the Ravens and Bears, but the home team has been more consistently productive to this point with and without Jay Cutler.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - Somehow, three quarterbacks later the Browns could still technically win the AFC North and the Bengals/Ravens are doing a great job of drawing out Cleveland's futile hopes as long as possible.  You can set your watch to the annual Cincinnati plateau, so don't count the Browns totally out.  Just don't bet on it like this weirdo.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-6) - Let's be clear here.  The Giants are still a pretty bad team.  Trust an Eli Manning fantasy owner on that one.  They ought to win this one and keep the 3-game winning streak on the burner, but I'm going to blindly throw the ball into triple coverage that Eddie Lacy can run on New York and Scott Tolzien is just good enough to manage this game.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm conflicted about this meaningless game.  Tampa finally overcame its winless season against a Dolphins team that was rather distracted about not being distracted last week.  Atlanta might be down to literally Harry Douglas if Tony Gonzalez can't start, but they also get back Sean Weatherspoon on defense.  The Falcons can win the Futility Bowl, I guess.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - Conundrum: Since the Jets have been riding the win-loss-win-loss rollercoaster, what happens after a bye week?  They haven't been the prettiest of contenders, but much like Leslie Frazier in Minnesota last year, Rex Ryan continues to make something out of nothing.  In an anything-goes second tier in the AFC, I like these Jets.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-7) - The poor Texans are officially cooked with Arian Foster out for the season and fewer wins than the Jaguars and Buccaneers in the past month.  But I love what Case Keenum is cooking, and given the Raiders' inconsistencies on defense, Houston at least deserves a moral win in front of whatever fans remain.

Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Don't look now, but the Cardinals could actually overtake the 49ers for the 2-seed in the NFC West with a little help.  Arizona is ready for the Bruce Arians revolution to begin, but that also means they may not be low enough on the draft totem pole to replace Carson Palmer next season.  In the meantime, they should enjoy the rec league game in Jacksonville.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-13) - What would the Vikings give for it to be 2009 again right about now?  Instead they get another trip to the ninth circle of visiting teams in Seattle where they have no prayer unless AP's got about 400 yards in him.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 - 5
Season Record: 95 -52